A Race to Follow!

[Godspot]

Yarmouth

Mon July 20th 09

2.15, interesting little race this – there are three runners entered who I have recently noted as of being on winning handicap marks and here they are in a maiden:

Espero(Ire) 82
Brown Bomber 75
Missophisticat 72

To add a little spice though there is a former Khalid Abdullah inmate who has been racing in France and now having her UK debut for new connections:

Red Oriental 87

If this were a handicap, she would be giving weight all round, as it is she is in receipt from the main protagonists (the first two mentioned) – I’m quite tempted to do a reverse forecast with Espero but whatever the result I've got a feeling this race could throw a couple of winners in the future.

[Godspot]

9f gd/st Yarmouth

Besides the fast finishing 100/1 4th, Ela Gorrie Mou [From the same stable as Friday’s 10 length Nottingham winner, Rafta, who is set to come out under a penalty any time Weds/Thurs/Fri, will be interesting!] who probably ran some way above her lowly 47 rating, I can’t see the handicapper having too much to do about this race.

That should leave the winner, Bomber Brown, on a reasonable mark for a step up to handicap company and so too, should secure the 2nd, Starkat (who has just showed her best piece of form here after being tried over a variety of trips and ground) a favourable rating.

I get the impression that the third, Mt Kyntyre (whose placing provides a handy benchmark) may well have been suited by this trip if the going had been on the firmer side of good.

If the fifth, Miss Sophisticat, or the sixth, Espero, should just happen to turn out next in an 8f handicap (or maiden) on ‘gd ground – I could be interested……

[Street cry]

Yarmouth form ???????????

[Godspot]

Yarmouth form ???????????

Er, not quite, it says up there, that before this race I had 3 of the eventual first 6 as noted for being on winning handicap marks. Besides the 4th horse & I'll confirm next Weds but I doubt they will be changing much. Talking of the 4th horse, I doubt it would matter what track their horses run on, they are in such form, they haven't many in training but Rafta for one is romping up the scale.

But, I just visited the Notebook & it says about Newmarket of late:

"After the big meet in July I noted a couple of winners coming from Yarmouth."

I know what you're saying though, tis a bit of a donkey track!

[Godspot]

First little test then - Ela Gorrie Mou goes at Windsor in the 10f 6.40 today. She earned a crude 63+ from me for the above & a 68 from the racing post ratings which adjusted and while she's still on 47, puts her at the top. I think the extra fulrong will suit. No juicy 100/1 here I'm afraid!

[Godspot]

Personally I think we're going to have to upgrade our opinions of 'Yarmouth form,' and can think of a few good reasons of late as to why.

Firstly, I noticed on Saturday in York's Gr2, Kirklees's race a horse called Tazeez, trained by John Gosden - he had won his maiden at Yarmouth and then went on to win two handicaps and a Listed race at Newmarket so that's not bad but

Secondly, over at Ascot on the same day, Clive Brittain had a Listed 2yo winner called Nideeb, going back to his previous run it just happened to be in a Yarmouth maiden and where the Notebook commentator had him down as One to Follow - it also just happens that yesterday, the 5l's second in that race reappeared to win the last race on the Glorious Goodwood card, the 2/1f Lowdown, so that's not bad either but

Thirdly, take a look at the form of yesterday's mile handicap winner, Marajaa, he was 5th in a hot race at Newmarket last time but the time before that, he too was a winner at Yarmouth but

Take a look at a horse called Cwm Rhondda(USA) in the 7.10 @ Leicester today, 3 times a winner over 10f @ Yarmouth this season, trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam which brings us nicely back to our little race and talking of which it was nice to see Royal Destination, trained by Jeremy Nodeda, placed in the first at Goodwood yesterday as I had based the rating of Espero(Ire) (above) around him so that looks solid but

Ela Gorrie Mou is entered up again today in the last at Leicester - this race, remember the other day where she was a non-runner, I said she was top Racing Post Rated? Well she is today too but she is well clear of the next contender, this race is far less competitive than the other & I'm suggesting an EW bet just as long as she turns up.

[Godspot]

Well this is a tits up rarity if ever I saw one. After last nights abandonment we're now all set to run from 9lb out of the handicap in the last 5.00pm @ Nottingham and still set to be raised another 9lb for future engagements win lose or draw. From what I can work out that means she has to win today by 3l's to justify that encumberment. Easy innit!

[Godspot]

So far, one desperado attempt to get a run in before the revised rating took effect & it all went pear shaped due to bad weather. I think her (Ela Gorrie Mou) best chance would most certainly have been the Leicester race but???

To be honest, I think I have made a mistake with this thread and have something far more interesting happening that I should be working on. We have two runners today though and we'll see how they go.

3.50 Yarmouth - Miss Sophisticat

It's a mile, it's 'gd, she has Ryan Moore on board, I have seen 5-12/1 forecast and anywhere inbetween that could warrant an EW bet.

8.25 Sandown - Bomber Brown
Have only seen 5/s so far and think that a little short for what he's trying to do in take on his elders but I think has solid place claims.

[Merlin]

Yarmouth form ???????????

Nothing wrong with Yarmouth form...Just think Henry Cecil as one example...

There are many more...

PS: Yarmouth form is one of those hidden gems...

[Godspot]

[QUOTE=Godspot;506599]

To be honest, I think I have made a mistake with this thread QUOTE]

Sounds about right!

Miss Sophisticat was placed @ 9/2 after opening @ 9/s t'other day.

Bomber Brown finished out of the money 3rd/7

But if you really want to laugh have a look at tomorrow's first race at Lingfield - 2.30

Mt Kyntyre is set to run in a maiden & is all set @ evens if you're lucky!

MIght improve for the step up in trip & may be able to improve his sires pretty dire stats for the AW but I wouldn't bank on it. Not a safe win bet at all, sorry :splapme

[Godspot]

Yeh, this thread finally gets a winner! Ela Gorrie Mou went in @ Yarmouth yesterday and the 8/1 should have brought us to a LSP. Shame I was more bothered about racing in Ireland though!

I'm still thinking of picking another race though!

[Godspot]

Sorry, I have had to do a couple of weeks slave labour & it has got me behind in my work! Two more winners since last looked:

Bomber Brown is running today 7.20 Kempton and like the Sporting Life (makes their shortlist of three) & Timeform (achieves (wow!) 2nd in their 1,2,3), I can't be any more confident of gaining a place, if we're lucky. I think this the most competitive race ran in by any of these. Life would be a whole lot easier if, oi! Oi! Get on Looby Loo in the first but anyways...

The story so far:

Bomber Brown -

3rd/6 @ 11/4, no good! & upped to 79

Starkat -

Yet to run, interesting?

Mt Kyntyre -

8th/9 @ 5/4f, amazing!

Ela Gorrie Mou -

5th/10 @ 2/1f, a desperate attempt to get a run in before being reassessed!
1st/13 @ 7/1
1st/10 @ 7/2j & now rated 69

Miss Sophisticat -

2nd/9 @ 9/2
7th/13 @ 7/1

Espero -

3rd/9 @ 7/2
2nd/12 @ 8/1
1st/9 @ 5/6f & now rated lower than to begin with @ 79 ?

I think that's about £14.50 returned for a £1 win on each run costing £10 so £4.50 profit.

[Godspot]

Two more losers to add to the stats I'm afraid, Bomber Command & Miss Sophisticat have both been beaten within the last couple of days & both finished just out of the places - today though we have Ela Gorrie Mou running in the last race at Haydock 5.05

She's been the biggest improver so far from our little group and is actually tipped to win today by Timeform and the RP Analysis give her every chance of a hat-trick - I'm a little concerned about Stoute's runner, Entreat, who might just be suited by the return to a mile and her jockey stats read good for the course at 2 from 4 50% but he is on a near 50 ride losing run at present and that maiden win at Folkstone was a very modest affair -

There were 3 last time out winners behind our filly last time, there are none today in opposition & 8.4 on Betfair is a fair price.

[Godspot]

H'mm, two weeks offline & I miss all the action - Miss Sophisticat won twice, 14/s & 9/2 & Espero once but can't remember the price.

Be interesting to see how Starkat & Mt Kyntyre get on when they reappear?

[Godspot]

I'm still thinking of picking another race though!

Not quite occurred to me since but last week at Doncaster, was well impressed with the first 4 here:

Race easily fastest on card but while I was rating up noticed all the front four were lightly raced, progressive profile types:

Apr 28th 2012 – st

7:10 - robinsonsofbawtry.com Handicap

1m2½f, Class 3, £8,409.70

1 War Poet 20/1 - XoM PB 110 WW HU off fair pace/Smooth hdwy st 123dys 10s Donc +15 improved Apr 12 pos Ebor if st? - Improving Jun 11 - Lightly raced too! DP = 6-0-16-7-1 (30) DI = 0.88 CD = 0.10

2 King's Warrior 16/1 - fr HOT race > +17 Improved gd hdwy st PB 109 282dys 10s Donc Apr 12 - DP = 6-0-12-6-0 (24) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.25

3 Little Rocky 9/2 - outstaying pedigree here & probably better back at shorter? fr HOT race <10s? Apr 12 - Improved Aug 11 - DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

4 High Jinx (Ire) 9/4f - stayed on well fnl f & has a 14f pedigree? Ger bred 12f+ fav or 2m+ OTF fr HOT race Apr 12 - Fig of meet 4th start 75dys 12gs NewmJ & Improved Aug 11 - DP = 2-0-7-5-2 (16) DI = 0.52 CD = -0.31

12 ran Distances: 1½l, 2½l, ½l

TIME 2m 13.49s (slow by 6.49s)

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: David O'Meara

And Bolivia(Ger) about to run now, was 6th after making running, see how she gets on, she definitely after some black type?

[Godspot]

Not quite occurred to me since but last week at Doncaster, was well impressed with the first 4 here:

Race easily fastest on card but while I was rating up noticed all the front four were lightly raced, progressive profile types:


4 High Jinx (Ire) 9/4f - stayed on well fnl f & has a 14f pedigree? Ger bred 12f+ fav or 2m+ OTF fr HOT race Apr 12 - Fig of meet 4th start 75dys 12gs NewmJ & Improved Aug 11 - DP = 2-0-7-5-2 (16) DI = 0.52 CD = -0.31

At last a winner! Beginning to think, like John Francome said on C4 today, that the race wasn't working out..

Still struggling to break even so far 1 7/2 from 4 runs so far I think.

[MarcusMel]

I noticed following Keith's systems that my bank goes up and down for a while and then has a spurt upwards, maybe all systems behave the same way! Hmmm up down spurt sounds like sex doen't it

[Godspot]

At last a winner! Beginning to think, like John Francome said on C4 today, that the race wasn't working out..

Still struggling to break even so far 1 7/2 from 4 runs so far I think.

After doing the figs for meet, that High Jinx just bettered the above race, so may not be as bad as thought

[Godspot]

I noticed following Keith's systems that my bank goes up and down for a while and then has a spurt upwards, maybe all systems behave the same way! Hmmm up down spurt sounds like sex doen't it

H'mm, after Little Rocky 5/2 Friday & today's whopper really spurting us upwards - think we're in for a crash in the near future:

3:00 - 53rd John Smith's Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Full result
1m2½f, Class 2, £97,035.00
1 King's Warrior 33/1
2 Mid Mon Lady 22/1
3 Media Hype 9/2
4 Stand To Reason 20/1
NR: Kirthill (IRE), Prince Of Johanne (IRE)
18 ran Distances: 4½l, hd, hd
TIME 2m 8.28s (slow by 0.78s)
Jockey: Robert Havlin
Trainer: Peter Chapple-Hyam

[Godspot]

Not quite occurred to me since but last week at Doncaster, was well impressed with the first 4 here:

Race easily fastest on card but while I was rating up noticed all the front four were lightly raced, progressive profile types:

Apr 28th 2012 – st

7:10 - robinsonsofbawtry.com Handicap

1m2½f, Class 3, £8,409.70

1 War Poet 20/1 - XoM PB 110 WW HU off fair pace/Smooth hdwy st 123dys 10s Donc +15 improved Apr 12 pos Ebor if st? - Improving Jun 11 - Lightly raced too! DP = 6-0-16-7-1 (30) DI = 0.88 CD = 0.10

2 King's Warrior 16/1 - fr HOT race > +17 Improved gd hdwy st PB 109 282dys 10s Donc Apr 12 - DP = 6-0-12-6-0 (24) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.25

3 Little Rocky 9/2 - outstaying pedigree here & probably better back at shorter? fr HOT race <10s? Apr 12 - Improved Aug 11 - DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79

4 High Jinx (Ire) 9/4f - stayed on well fnl f & has a 14f pedigree? Ger bred 12f+ fav or 2m+ OTF fr HOT race Apr 12 - Fig of meet 4th start 75dys 12gs NewmJ & Improved Aug 11 - DP = 2-0-7-5-2 (16) DI = 0.52 CD = -0.31

12 ran Distances: 1½l, 2½l, ½l

TIME 2m 13.49s (slow by 6.49s)

Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: David O'Meara

And Bolivia(Ger) about to run now, was 6th after making running, see how she gets on, she definitely after some black type?

Interesting little race here me thinks: Same CD as above & I seem to make it 2 stone better than TopSpeed of the RP so we'll see what the Official Handicapper makes of it & where they end up in a year or so's time.

5:10 - Unison "Fair Pensions For All" Maiden Stakes (Div II)

1m2½f, Class 5, £2,911.05

1 1 Blazing Speed 12/1 3 9-1 James Fanshawe — — 115/p
b g Dylan Thomas (IRE) - Leukippids (IRE) (Sadler's Wells)
Shane Kelly

Took keen hold, led 1f, tracked leader, headway to lead 2f out, joined and ridden entering final furlong, stayed on strongly and soon clear (op 10-1)


2 6 3½ Starfield 20/1 3 9-1 e/s1 John Gosden — — 109
b g Marju (IRE) - Sister Moonshine (FR) (Piccolo)
Robert Havlin

Held up in midfield, steady headway 3f out, chased leaders 2f out, challenged approaching final furlong and every chance, soon ridden and one pace (op 16-1)


3 3 3¼ Ustura (USA) 16/1 3 9-1 t Saeed Bin Suroor — — 103/p
b c Nayef (USA) - Calando (USA) (Storm Cat)
Ted Durcan

Held up towards rear, headway well over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish (op 12-1)

11 ran Distances: 3½l, 3¼l, 4½l

TIME 2m 6.36s (fast by 0.64s)

I'll edit in some more when time allows?

[Godspot]

Interesting little race here me thinks: Same CD as above & I seem to make it 2 stone better than TopSpeed of the RP so we'll see what the Official Handicapper makes of it & where they end up in a year or so's time.

5:10 - Unison "Fair Pensions For All" Maiden Stakes (Div II)

1m2½f, Class 5, £2,911.05

1 1 Blazing Speed 12/1 3 9-1 James Fanshawe — — 115/p
b g Dylan Thomas (IRE) - Leukippids (IRE) (Sadler's Wells)
Shane Kelly

Took keen hold, led 1f, tracked leader, headway to lead 2f out, joined and ridden entering final furlong, stayed on strongly and soon clear (op 10-1)


2 6 3½ Starfield 20/1 3 9-1 e/s1 John Gosden — — 109
b g Marju (IRE) - Sister Moonshine (FR) (Piccolo)
Robert Havlin

Held up in midfield, steady headway 3f out, chased leaders 2f out, challenged approaching final furlong and every chance, soon ridden and one pace (op 16-1)


3 3 3¼ Ustura (USA) 16/1 3 9-1 t Saeed Bin Suroor — — 103/p
b c Nayef (USA) - Calando (USA) (Storm Cat)
Ted Durcan

Held up towards rear, headway well over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish (op 12-1)

11 ran Distances: 3½l, 3¼l, 4½l

TIME 2m 6.36s (fast by 0.64s)

I'll edit in some more when time allows?

2 wins - 10/1, 5/2f from 4 runs so far, that's 3 out of 3 profitable races, maybe I should stick to this sort of thing?