mathare's False Favs

[mathare]

Anyway, back to business for a brief minute...

Saturday 14th November
12.30 Uttoxeter Chamirey
1.40 Uttoxeter Golden Feather
1.45 Wetherby Deuteronomy
1.55 Cheltenham Hello Bud
2.35 Cheltenham Ballyfitz
2.45 Uttoxeter Silver Bay
2.45 Uttoxeter Cross Kennon
2.55 Wetherby Fushe Jo
3.10 Cheltenham Lie Forrit
3.45 Cheltenham Vinnes Friend

Having broken through the 100pts barrier by target is now to stay there and maybe aim for 120pts to BSP by the end of the year. I feel a correction is due soon as the graph for these is staggering at the minute and it can't carry on like that for too long. Can it?

[Phenomenon]

Mathare
A quick question if i may,The results for this system have been very good over the period that you have been putting the selections to this forum.

have you thought of,Or have you,back checked it over the last year or so.

Past results are no indication of the future,We are all aware of that.But it could be worthwhile exercise to instill more confidence in the system

[mathare]

The results for this system have been very good over the period that you have been putting the selections to this forum.
have you thought of,Or have you,back checked it over the last year or so.

While it is possible to back-test this I have no intentions of doing so as it involves a lot of work. This is a live test and the data is here for all to see so consider the start of August as T0 and we'll work from there.

Past results are no indication of the future,We are all aware of that.But it could be worthwhile exercise to instill more confidence in the system

I don't need any more confidence, personally. It would have to be one hell of a fluke for the system to have performed like this for the past few months. That's not to say some sort of correction isn't due but I am extremely confident in the future profitability of this system.

[mathare]

There's that correction anyway - a couple of big priced winners today :(

[huckabuck]

unlucky today mat. now that you got the losers out the way hopfully another leap forward.Mat what time did you do your false lays?.i had to do mine last night because i had a lot to do today.i had 3 for today, (1.45) (2.45) and the (3.45).but in the (1.45) last night the RP had blossom king as fav .it is not a mistake i would make been doing these for six weeks.just checked again and it is 3rd fav.blossom king ended up a N/R.RP. the only plus side putting them on last night i got cross kennon at 4.2 after N/R,s

[mathare]

A correction indeed. Winners at 5/6 (1.88), 5/1 (6.6), 7/1 (9.29) and 11/4 (3.9) mean a loss of 11.97pts to BSP and 11.44pts to industry SP. It had to happen at some stage.

Stats
453 from 548 (82.66%)
SP+10: 127.18pts
BSP: 92.37pts

[mathare]

Sunday 15th November
12.50 Fontwell Helium
1.00 Market Rasen Calzaghe
1.35 Market Rasen Sphinx
2.10 Market Rasen Tarabaloo
2.35 Fontwell Dontpaytheferryman
2.45 Market Rasen Description
2.55 Cheltenham Silk Affair
3.10 Fontwell Rebel Melody

[Phenomenon]

mathare
If it's any consolation the laying system that i have been following for the last 6 weeks with great results has also taken a hammering over the weekend.

The results have been very strange,Probably something to do with ground conditions.

This is the problem with laying horses,A couple of bad days and it can easily wipe out 20%+ of your profits.

[mathare]

Not good enough yesterday. Two winners at 13/2 (8.27 BSP) and 3/1 (4.24 BSP) resulted in a loss of 4.81pts to BSP or 4.75pts to SP+10%. It's a setback alright but one we WILL recover from

Stats
459 from 556 (82.55%)
SP+10: 122.43pts
BSP: 87.56pts

Had someone offered me those stats when I first started this system I'd have snapped their hand off for them so I should be pleased with the way things are going overall. I said a correction was due so let's hope it's out the way now. That said, the graph suggests we can expect to drop a few more points yet before we are were we 'should' be.

[mathare]

Just the one for today, unusually

Monday 16th November
2.50 Plumpton Stormhoek

[mathare]

A loser at 9/2 (5.9 BSP) so a profit of 0.95pts

Stats
460 from 557 (82.59%)
SP+10: 123.38pts
BSP: 88.51pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 17th November
1.00 Fakenham Pearly Star
1.30 Fakenham Dusk
1.40 Folkestone Iroquois Warrior
3.00 Fakenham Great Tsar
3.10 Folkestone Well Mick
3.30 Fakenham Stretch The Truth

[mathare]

Dusk the only winner yesterday at 11/4 (5.25 BSP) which means a profit of 0.50pts to BSP but a much nicer 1.73pts to SP+10% due to the big price difference on that winner. We are at least heading back in the right direction again though

Stats
465 from 563 (82.59%)
SP+10: 125.10pts
BSP: 89.01pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 18th November
12.00 Lingfield Wunder Strike
1.00 Lingfield Royal Box
1.40 Market Rasen Synchronised
2.00 Lingfield I Confess
2.00 Lingfield King's Colour
2.10 Market Rasen Nirvana Swing
3.40 Market Rasen Calzaghe

[Phenomenon]

Ouch...

[barrelmaniac]

I think that this is a natural correction for this sytem, I don't think it could go on continuing with the gains it has made without taking a big hit at some point, hopefully from now it will be back to good form

[mathare]

I think that this is a natural correction for this sytem, I don't think it could go on continuing with the gains it has made without taking a big hit at some point, hopefully from now it will be back to good form

Absolutely. It had been punching way above its weight for a while now and was due a correction. I thought we'd had it a few days back and that things would level out for a while but instead we have had a full and proper correction over the past week or so. This shows the nature of lay betting though - bad days can be very bad indeed. The system is by no means broken though, in fact it is running almost exactly as one would expect overall.

Today was a big loser, costing 14.50pts to BSP or 14.78pts to SP+10% which is a bad day in anyone's books. It means we're over 30pts down from the peak acheived just 4 days ago but that peak was unrealistic. Look at the attached graph for this system. Where we are at present is perfectly in line with the overall upward trend of the bank. Anyway, this service has produced just under 75pts of profit to Betfair starting prices in three and a half months. That's more than 20pts a month which you have to admit isn;t bad, despite today's results.

Stats
467 from 570 (81.93%)
SP+10: 110.32pts
BSP: 74.51pts

[Phenomenon]

15 points in one day from a laying perspective will take a hell of a lot of clawing back

Still showing a healthy profit,But it just shows how a few bad days laying can smash into a betting bank big time.

i will watch with interest.

[mathare]

15 points in one day from a laying perspective will take a hell of a lot of clawing back

Not necessarily. I'm probably averaging 6-7 bets a day (I haven't checked but that's probably in the right sort of ball park at least) so three clean sheets and we're back. OK, that's unrealistic to expect that sort of performance but today's losses should be easily recoverable over the next week or two I'd say. Working on the 20pts a month average we're looking at three weeks to undo today but that's fine. I had been saying a correction was due and now I think we've had the worst of it. That's not to say there won't be further losses over the next few days - they might be but no-one knows what will happen yet - but the service remains on track. That 100pts by the end of the year is still very much achievable given there are 6 or 7 weeks of the year remaining

[Street cry]

That drop is nothing, draw a diagonal trend line through the bottom of each dip and remove the chart lines and what you get is solid growth over a short period of time.

[mathare]

That drop is nothing, draw a diagonal trend line through the bottom of each dip and remove the chart lines and what you get is solid growth over a short period of time.

That's what I was trying, and failing, to say. Thanks SC

[mathare]

Thursday 19th November
1.20 Hereford Daring Racer
1.30 Wincanton Baseball Ted
1.40 Huntingdon Mount Helicon
2.30 Wincanton Minnie Hill
2.40 Huntingdon Orfeo Conti
2.50 Hereford Fortification
3.00 Wincanton Deep Quest
3.20 Hereford Manjam

[Phenomenon]

mathare
Have you ever compared the forecast you use and the betfair forecast.MINNIE HILL was 3rd fav KING OZZY fav,You may be happy with your selection process but it may be worthwhile comparing the forecasts could save yourself a few quid.

[mathare]

You may be happy with your selection process

Yes, I am thank you. The system rules are set and will stay as they are. Favouritism isn't always a factor.

[Phenomenon]

mathare
Just trying to be helpful.Every horse that i have looked at has been the favourite or joint fav in the racing post.My point is that 2 of them were not favs in the betfair betting forecast.Which would have given you a small loss of 0.27 points instead of the 12.36 BSP that you incurred today.

Please don't take me the wrong way,I am only trying to help.There's a good saying " don't try and mend something that isn't broken" but there are ways of strengthening a system.

[Phenomenon]

sorry,11.08 loss not 12+

[mathare]

Every horse that i have looked at has been the favourite or joint fav in the racing post.My point is that 2 of them were not favs in the betfair betting forecast.There's a good saying " don't try and mend something that isn't broken" but there are ways of strengthening a system.

Right. So you have identified horses today that could have reduced the loss but what of other days? If you're right then the overall results will be improved. Want to go back and check all the selections? They're all available in this thread...

[Phenomenon]

mathare
i cannot check them because the betfair tissues go off after the days racing.My point was it may be worth checking them on a daily basis and comparing with you own selections.It was a suggestion and nothing else.

This system has now lost 40 points in 5 days.if i had started betting these i would be seriously worried.Being as it would take 40+ straight unsuccessful lays to get back to my original starting bank.

[mathare]

i cannot check them because the betfair tissues go off after the days racing.My point was it may be worth checking them on a daily basis and comparing with you own selections.

Right, and my point was there might not be any point as it may not improve the system at all despite all the additional work. This is an idea that has worked well in the past and is experiencing a temporary blip in performance. It will recover.

This system has now lost 40 points in 5 days.if i had started betting these i would be seriously worried.Being as it would take 40+ straight unsuccessful lays to get back to my original starting bank.

I am betting on these with my own cash and I'm not worried. I'm an experienced lay bettor and know that these things happen but that systems like this can readily recover the losses in time so I have no concerns about continuing to follow these with my own money.

[Phenomenon]

Then i wish you the very best of luck.I am also an experienced lay bettor and iv'e never been hit for 40 points in 5 years with any laying system that i have used.

be lucky