mathare's False Favs

[mathare]

Sunday 18th October
3.15 Southwell Penitent
3.50 Southwell Simple Rhythm
4.00 Kempton Professor Higgins
5.40 Kempton Nagam

[mathare]

I'm in a bit of a slump here I am afraid with winners at 15/8 (3.0) and 11/4 (4.1) yesterday

Stats
292 from 356 (82.02%)
SP+10: 69.44pts
BSP: 44.20pts

[mathare]

Monday 19th October
2.10 Pontefract Landowner
2.30 Windsor Esteem Machine
3.30 Windsor Masked Dance
3.40 Pontefract Hot Prospect
4.40 Pontefract Black Rain
5.30 Windsor Aestival
5.40 Pontefract Gilt Edge Girl
5.40 Pontefract Go Go Green

[mathare]

Winners to start and end the day mean we lost a further 1.73pts to SP and 2.54pts to BSP as Esteem Machine went off at a BSP of 11.81 so too great a price to be counted.

Stats
298 from 364 (81.87%)
SP+10: 67.71pts
BSP: 41.66pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 20th October
2.10 Exeter Oamaru Stone
3.30 Lingfield Boho Chic
3.40 Exeter Alaghiraar
4.30 Lingfield Poppanan
4.50 Yarmouth King Of Defence
5.00 Lingfield Mondego
5.20 Yarmouth Eliza Doolittle
5.30 Lingfield My Les

[mathare]

Two non-runners and a 4/1 (5.79 BSP) winner. Eliza Doolittle went off at 8/1 and I was matched at 8.0 on Betdaq but the BSP was 11.58 so that one is not included in the Betfair SP stats

Stats
303 from 370 (81.89%)
SP+10: 68.06pts
BSP: 40.67pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 21st October
1.50 Worcester Romance Dance
2.50 Worcester Devils River
2.50 Worcester Satindra
3.40 Southwell Ingleby Arch
4.20 Worcester Crouch End Flyer
4.40 Southwell Inflammable
4.50 Worcester Super Formen
5.00 Bath Denton

[mathare]

Ingleby Arch won at 7/2 and Romance Dance went off at too big a price (although I was matched at 10.5) but we still made 1.85pts to SP+10% and 1.61pts to BSP to haul back some of the recent losses

Stats
310 from 378 (82.01%)
SP+10: 69.91pts
BSP: 42.28pts

[mathare]

Thursday 22nd October
2.30 Brighton Transfixed
2.40 Carlisle Doeslessthanme
3.05 Brighton Lochan Mor
3.15 Carlisle Another Trump
3.25 Ludlow Black Mogul
3.25 Ludlow Hardwick
3.45 Carlisle Bleu Pois
3.55 Ludlow Classic Fly
3.55 Ludlow Dark Energy
4.15 Carlisle Intersky Music
4.30 Ludlow Stoneriggs Merc
5.10 Brighton Dream Huntress

That's more than I expected for a day like today

[mathare]

Hardwick went off at 16/1 (25.0 BSP) so will be removed from the stats. Another Trump went off at 17/2 SP but 11.35 BSP so is not included in the BSP profit figures. A good day though yesterday (at least something went my way ) with just one winner at 6/4 (2.81) to leave us up 7.85pts to SP+10 and 6.74pts to BSP.

Stats
320 from 389 (82.26%)
SP+10: 77.76pts
BSP: 49.02pts

[mathare]

Friday 23rd October
2.00 Fakenham Calzaghe
2.35 Fakenham Winsley Hill
2.55 Doncaster Sharaayeen
3.20 Ayr Ask Dan
3.20 Ayr Stellite
3.30 Doncaster Russian Spirit
3.45 Fakenham Busker Royal
3.55 Ayr Emirates Champion
4.20 Fakenham Doctor Robert
4.40 Doncaster Tanfidh
5.10 Doncaster Speedy Guru

[mathare]

As sure as night follows day, a bad day follows a good one. 1 NR, 4 winners (including all three that ran at Fakenham!) and one that went off at too high a price to be counted yesterday. That's a loss of 5.15pts to SP+10% and 5.36pts to BSP.

Stats
325 from 398 (81.66%)
SP+10: 72.61pts
BSP: 43.66pts

[mathare]

Saturday 24th October
1.05 Aintree Thumbs Up
1.15 Doncaster Swiss Cross
1.20 Chepstow Aiteen Thirtythree
1.40 Aintree Lacdoudal
1.55 Chepstow Alfie Sherrin
2.20 Doncaster Rulesn'regulations
2.35 Newbury Harbinger
2.50 Aintree Picture This
2.55 Doncaster Citrus Star
3.00 Chepstow Apocal
3.30 Doncaster St Nicholas Abbey
3.35 Chepstow Now Listen To Me
4.00 Aintree Isn't That Lucky
4.55 Newbury Rainbow Peak
5.15 Doncaster Beau Fighter
5.25 Newbury Benfleet Boy

[mathare]

Just to prove how swingy lay betting can be we had a good day to take the recent sequence to very good - very bad - very good. I can only guess what tomorrow may bring. A couple of winners, one NR and one at too big a price to be counted means we end the day up 6.31pts to SP+10% or 6.20pts to BSP

Stats
337 from 412 (81.80%)
SP+10: 78.92pts
BSP: 49.86pts

[mathare]

Sunday 25th October
1.15 Wincanton Shacklesborough
1.50 Wincanton Ballygulleen
2.25 Wincanton Akram
3.00 Wincanton Kilcrea Asla
3.35 Wincanton Command Marshal

[mathare]

Ballygulleen won at 4/1 (5.05 BSP) and Kilcrea Asla was a NR so we lost 1.55pts to SP+10% or 1.20pts to BSP

Stats
340 from 416 (81.73%)
SP+10: 77.37pts
BSP: 48.66pts

[mathare]

Monday 26th October
1.30 Leicester Mr Harmoosh
2.00 Leicester Piazza San Pietro
2.10 Kempton Burma Rock
2.40 Kempton D'artagnans Dream
2.50 Lingfield Tinaar
4.10 Kempton Guildernstern
4.10 Kempton Sermons Mount
4.40 Kempton Absa Lutte
5.10 Kempton Berbice

[mathare]

Winners at 5/2 (3.91) and 9/4 (2.32) but we still managed a profit of 1.42pts to BSP or 1.43pts to SP+10%

Stats
347 from 425 (81.65%)
SP+10: 78.80pts
BSP: 50.08pts

[mathare]

Tuesday 27th October
2.20 Southwell Old Devil Moon
2.50 Southwell Turn On The Style
3.20 Southwell Lucky Punt

[mathare]

Lucky Punt won at 85/40 (3.15 BSP) to leave us down 0.44pts to SP+10% or 0.25pts to BSP

Stats
349 from 428 (81.54%)
SP+10: 78.36pts
BSP: 49.83pts

[mathare]

Wednesday 28th October
1.00 Musselburgh Vertigo On Course
2.00 Musselburgh Lewyn
2.10 Nottingham Bravely
2.45 Nottingham Outland
3.15 Nottingham Kiwi Bay
3.25 Haydock Ikorodu Road
4.20 Nottingham Tres Froide

[mathare]

I haven't been able to say this for a while so I am delighted to be able to utter the words "clean sheet" today :D Up 6.65 whatever SP you use

Stats
356 from 435 (81.84%)
SP+10: 85.01pts
BSP: 56.48pts

[Iron Chris]

Well done Mat...

I was surprised that you didn't pick out the 1:40 @ Nottingham as well, you must have know it was going to win...:wink

I have started doing somethng similar to yours I think as I often have quite a few of the same selections as yours. As was mentioned in your blog I have then gone for the idea of trying to manually find the best one or two selections each day to lay.

It is still early days but I am up a little bit so far. Have got the selections down on paper so will have to see if going with all the qualifiers is better or not and maybe introduce a cut off price?

Keep up the good work...:)

[mathare]

I was surprised that you didn't pick out the 1:40 @ Nottingham as well, you must have know it was going to win...:wink

My system only has three rules and it failed two of them so didn't qualify. It wasn't so much knowing it would win, just not being confident it would lose.

I have started doing somethng similar to yours I think as I often have quite a few of the same selections as yours. As was mentioned in your blog I have then gone for the idea of trying to manually find the best one or two selections each day to lay.

Good luck with this. It's always good to see people trying new things and hopefully making a few quid from it along the way. Long may it continue

[mathare]

Thursday 29th October
2.50 Stratford Present Gale
3.00 Newcastle Reckless Venture
3.10 Lingfield Sirocco Breeze

[mathare]

Sirocco Breeze wins at 15/8 to leave us with a loss of 0.16pts to SP+10% or 0.18 to BSP

Stats
358 from 438 (81.74%)
SP+10: 84.85pts
BSP: 56.30pts

[mathare]

Friday 30th October
2.40 Wetherby Professor Higgins
2.50 Uttoxeter Bert's Memory
3.00 Newmarket Day Of The Eagle
3.15 Wetherby Trumpstoo
3.25 Uttoxeter Dovedale
3.35 Newmarket Himalya
3.45 Wetherby Hunting Tower
4.05 Newmarket Dazinski
4.15 Wetherby Wizards Dust

[mathare]

Winners at 3/1 (4.5) and 9/4 (3.68) but a profit of 0.87pts to SP+10% and 0.47pts to BSP

Stats
365 from 447 (81.66%)
SP+10: 85.72pts
BSP: 56.77pts

[mathare]

Saturday 31st October
1.50 Ascot Can't Buy Time
2.15 Ayr Bollin Judith
2.20 Wetherby My Petra
2.35 Newmarket Shaweel
2.55 Wetherby Tamarinbleu
3.00 Ascot Micheal Flips
3.25 Wetherby Fair Along
4.00 Wetherby Aldiruos
4.15 Newmarket Swift Chap

[mathare]

Fair Along the only winner at 3/1 (4.3) so a profit of 4.30pts whether you use BSP or SP+10%

Stats
373 from 456 (81.80%)
SP+10: 90.02pts
BSP: 61.07pts