Thread: Hold Your Horses!
21st September 2009 #1
Hold Your Horses!
September 21st – 4.20 2yo Nov Stakes 4
Hold Your Horses
OK, I think this is going to be my Lay thread, I think I’m still running at around 85% with nothing bigger than 4/1 – I’ll check later (yep, 2/13 & 4/s the biggest price) & get back to you but I was going to start a thread called ‘At Odds With Timeform’ but today we’re going the whole shaboodle – Timeform / Racing Post / Sporting Life (they all tip Circumvent) and even the Official Handicapper no less!
Interesting scenario here & before we all go dashing out to grab a short price about Circumvent:
Racing Post says of Muwalla – ‘respected on adjusted ratings.’
Well, they’re right there, adjusted on Official Ratings, there is little more than 2lb between them but what if I said that Circumvent is overrated & that Muwalla underrated? The plot thickens & the answer lies amongst the Racing Post speed figures – Yes, Muwalla, is 10lbs clear of next best Flipping according to the speed figures –
The RP gave Circumvent a 95 rating for his 2nd to Quadrille (nout special about this formline either) in a Class 3 Conditions Stakes where he earned a 75 speed figure, the Official Handicapper has been more cautious & gave 93. At some point in the future he may well live up to that rating but
Because it was only a maiden, Muwalla earned a RP rating of 80 for his 78 speed figure but probably because it is traditionally a ‘good’ maiden (& this year no exception as 5 of the nine runners hold Gr1 entries and the winner was already being backed for the Derby before the race but) the Official Handicapper was a little more generous & gave an 84.
Now then, now then, the winner of this said maiden just happens to be clear favourite for next year’s Derby and Muwalla was only 2 1/4l’s behind & was only headed over 1f out, the distance of today’s trip but even if Coordinated Cut fails to live up to expectations & only turns out as good as say, Monitor Closely, then in a few months time that OR about Muwalla is only heading in one direction, UP!
Add to that Kieren Fallon, in his Weekender column of last week, of all the horses that ran put up one Eyecatcher, M Bell’s Tactition, who just happened to be 2nd, splitting Muwalla & Coordinated Cut, he said:
‘I have watched the video a couple of times since and he put up a real eyecatching performance. It was rode like a decent contest and was won in a decent time. Micheal Bell’s colt is a nice horse in the making.’
All we need now is a little form boost and some of the above might hold some validity!
Sporting Life say of Circumvent: ‘Ought to take the world of beating.’
Timeform: “This should be straightforward for Circumvent, who represents a stable that has struck with a quarter of all its juvenile runners at this track in recent seasons. Muwalla is the one for the forecast,”
Straight off the bat that means that 75% of P Cole 2yo’s are losers here at Leicester, if this were a Nursery & he was 28/1, I might be interested, 25% about that would be value but here?
If Circumvent LAY ends up as favourite and considering the last two of this event have lost and anyone is looking for some value to take against him – I’m with Muwalla! WIN & Matched at 3.3 on Betfair
21st September 2009 #2
'Er, perhaps I should add for those that feel that 13 Lay selections doesn't provide a big enough sample - the W(in) selections on the same spreadsheet are about 30 from 60 & show a healthy LSP!
21st September 2009 #3
Amazing really! One of 5 horses that all three, RP/SL & TF select and I manage to pick the only one that wins to opppose & just to rub it in the Racing Post make Circumvent one of their Eyecatchers of the day, calling him much the better.
Got a feeling we could be getting our money back if Muwalla tries a Nursery as the ratings (bless) wont be affected much by this!
11th November 2009 #4
Time to scape back some losses me thinks -
Thumbs Up - 11/4 about a horse trying to give 9lb with a jockey who is 0 from 35 rides at the course, er... LAY, LAY
But one to take him on with, 11/1 about a trainer who has a great record with first runners for his stable & 38+% sr with runners here:
UNCLE BERTIE EW
Users Browsing this Thread
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
By Matunty in forum Horse Racing Systems Help , Advice, Info, Ideas, Rules, Testing, etcReplies: 100Last Post: 3rd January 2011, 13:45
By Win2Win Racing in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&AReplies: 6Last Post: 26th March 2009, 20:37
By clotty in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&AReplies: 18Last Post: 11th April 2006, 10:00