mathare's gamblog

[mathare]

Saturday 19th December
There is no easy way to say this - today hurt! Today was expensive, my fourth worst day ever in fact. The backs I am following continue to run through a real rough patch and today the lays decided to join in the fun and games. I said on today's daily waffle thread that today is the closest I can ever recall coming to quitting gambling and I really think that's true. Today was a real kicking given that I have recently put a lot of effort into doing all I can to make sure my house is in order when it comes to gambling. I have given my portfolio a thorough examination and checked all my staking and still I suffer days like this - it just doesn't seem fair does it? That's because it's not, like the rest of life.

I think I know why today hurt more than other days, and it's not just the amount of money I lost (although that is surely part of it). It's my health and state of mind too. You may (or may not) know that for several months now I have been suffering abdominal pain. Constantly. I've seen my GP plenty of times and tried tons of different tablets. I've seen consultant gastroenterologists and had three endoscopies (two gastrocopies, one colonoscopy) plus numerous blood tests and an ultrasound. And I am still in pain. Recently my GP put me on peppermint oil tablets as an anti-spasmodic and they really helped - most of the pain was gone after taking the tablets. Until a couple of days ago. The pain came back with a vengeance and the peppermint oil tablets just aren't doing it for me any more. I have upped the dose to the maximum stated on the info leaflet but I am still in pain. It's been around 8 months of pain now and despite all the drugs and all the tests the NHS is no nearer finding out what's wrong with me. Do you know how frustrating that is? It's also pretty depressing.

I gave up my job (that I hated anyway) in August as I couldn't work through the pain and wanted to reduce my stress levels (not that it seems to have made any difference to my condition) so I have no income. I was claiming Employment Support Allowance but my medical certificate ran out recently. But that's OK as the peppermint oil tablets are working and I could go back to work, right? Right, a week or two that was the case but no longer. I have an appointment with a GP (but notmy GP) on Monday when I hope to get more drugs and a new medical certificate. Until then it's pain all the way.

So my mind isn't exactly 100% to say the least. The pain I am in is ball-breaking enough without my only source of income kicking me in the knackers too! That partly explains why I felt like quitting. But I have calmed down now, relaxed a little. I was watching Rain Man but I couldn't focus, my mind was racing. Updating this is cathartic in many ways and helps me clarify my thoughts so let's get it all down on 'paper'.

My worst losing days tend to coincide with poor days on the lays; the backs down help but losing backs are a steady dripping away of funds whereas a bad day on the lays can wipe weeks, if not months, of previous profits. I need to reduce the impact of such days of my bottom line. How? Diversification.

I think my portfolio has a pretty reasonable balance in terms of backing and laying systems and I don't have all my eggs in one basket when it comes to the sports I bet on. Most of my turnover is on the horses, sure, but I have bets on football, darts, rugby and all sorts of sports. I have been trialling a football tipster for the past month or so and things are looking pretty good there so that could be something to follow up on. The new SBC newsletter is out next week too so over the christmas break I may well scour the pages of that in detail looking for other non-racing services to bring on board. I really think I need to start increasing my turnover on other sports so that the racing doesn't dominate my betting activities so heavily. What the the chances of racing, football and all the other sports kicking me in the nuts at once? It has to be lower than just one sport doing it.

As well as diversify my betting activities I need to think about other ways I can bring in a few quid on a fairly regular basis. I have done some writing in the past and am thinking about picking that up again. I am also developing some software that should make a difference once I get it into a workable position but that is many months, perhaps ever over a year, away from reality due to the complexity and scale of the project. Still, I am determined to make it work for me and when it's done it could be a really good revenue stream but as I said that is somewhere down the line. But gambling will still have to be my main income source (I'm in no fit state to work really) so I could do without any more kicks in the balls like I had today. I am pretty confident I am in a good position to make hay when the gambling sun finally shines but at present it feels like it's thick grey clouds as far as the eye can see. I need to remain positive (about everything) and ensure I am making steps towards what I want to achieve no matter how small those steps are. But I also need to recognise I am making such steps and content myself with that. There are a lot of positives to what I am doing these days and I need to remember that. Of course, winning a few quid along the way would help :wink

[mathare]

Sunday 21st December
Days like yesterday make me want to take everything apart and put it back together again to make sure it is all as I expect it to be; inspect every little piece and clean it before reassembling. With that in mind I have been pondering my choice of betting exchange. I have been with Betdaq for a while now (I switched from Betfair when they changed their commission structure to one I regarded as less fair) but there is no doubt that they are very much the little brother as far as exchanges are concerned and that all the big money is on Betfair. So I have been wondering, even though I am on a better commission rate with Betdaq than I would be with Betfair (something that would remain the case for quite a while with my turnover levels) is that being offset by having to take worse prices, particularly for the lays? Would I be better off paying more commission to Betfair but getting better prices there? Unfortunately there is no easy way to tell if that would be the case (whether the Betfair prices are better) short of running the two sets of prices side by side for a continued period to ensure a fair test. But for how long and for which markets etc? Of course, once I decide to switch exchange I am immediately shooting myself in the foot in terms of commission. By moving back to Betfair for even a short while I will be reducing my Betdaq turnover and thus increasing the commission paid there so I need to make a decision (the right decision) and stick to it. And to do that I need information, I need to be able to directly compare the two exchanges to see which is offering me the best deal.

I did a study some time ago that showed at low turnovers Betdaq offered the better commission structure and that is still the case. But commission is only one factor. Betfair has the BSP concept that Betdaq lacks. Ditto commission points holidays, which are something I miss I must say. But it's the prices that matter most, along with the liquidity at those odds. My False Favs records show that on Betdaq I have recorded around an 11% overlay whereas BSP is equivalent to something like a 21% overlay on SP, significantly greater. However, that's Betfair starting price, not necessarily the price I would be taking on Betfair. Hmmm.

I am starting to feel like one of those people who is being different just for the sake of it by using Betdaq. You mention exchanges and people instantly think of Betfair, and for good reason. They have much better advertising than the purple people and have been more innovative too. Take the liquidities too. There is currently over £538k matched on the match odds market on Betfair for the West Ham v Chelsea game this afternoon but just £88k on Betdaq. That's a big difference. The prices are the same (as one would expect else arbers would have mopped it all up) but the volumes are staggeringly different. More than twice as much has already been matched on Betfair than Betdaq for the 2.15 at Kempton and even at the high prices the gap between the back and lay odds is smaller on Betfair indicating a more active market even at that end of it. For example, Taaresh is 34/36 on Betfair and 31/39 on Betdaq. Cossack Prince is 19.5/24 on Betdaq but 20/22 on Betfair. It makes a difference.

I am starting to convince myself that I need to switch to Betfair. I think this is one case in gambling where it is best to go with the crowd rather than against it. If nothing else I can treat it as a fresh start, an opportunity to draw a line under the lousy recent results and to try again with a 'new' exchange and a fresh new attitude to it all. Sure, I'll be back on 5% commission rather than the 4.25 I am on at present but this somehow feels like the right move. After all, I am probably going to need to deposit funds with an exchange soon anyway after the lays yesterday so I have that opportunity to make the switch.

I'm not going to rush into this one though. I have enough in Betdaq to see me through today and hopefully through till Christmas at least so I can re-evaluate how I feel and what I think the right decision is then. I'd need more in my account to get through Boxing Day but it is likely that I will take that day off anyway so that may not be a concern. Betfair feels like the right answer but as I say, I ned to ponder this one a bit more.

[MattR]

Difficult one Mat. I did/do have a betdaq account, though I can't even remember the password it's that long since I used it and I only had a few bets in there with a small amount and I used up the balance in there with an arb that won at the bookmakers (this is back over 2-3 years ago now!) I also have a small amount in World Bet Exchange but that was really just to get the joining bonus. I was also testing something on NHL and they had a lower commission rate on that so I did it in there. Football wise Betfair have many more markets especially on the less prominent leagues. I don't think you can get half time and correct scores on the lower English leagues can you? Maybe that's changed I'm not certain.

What if you were to put a small amount in to Betfair and run perhaps one back and one lay system in there as a live test?

[mathare]

What if you were to put a small amount in to Betfair and run perhaps one back and one lay system in there as a live test?

I thought about that but for how long should I run such a test? It takes time for an overlay figure to settle down to anything like it's true value so were I to do this I would be better off moving over systems with a decent number of selections so that the 'long term' is reached faster as it were but in doing so I take away a decent chunk of the turnover from my Betdaq account and thus increase the commission on every other system. It's a tricky one. Plus it has to be an existing system that is moved to Betfair rather than a new system so that I have some idea what sort of overlay is expected.

There are two voices doing battle in my head at the minute - one telling me to stick with Betdaq and once telling me to switch to Betfair. on one hand I don't want to change things just for the sake of change; I have to make any changes for the right reasons. But on the other I do often notice that the gap between back and lay prices in Betdaq is often more than one tick and with a low liquidity it is easier for prices to shift faster and more extensively. Someone determined to get a few grand on a horse at Betdaq means I may have to chase the lay price up a few ticks whereas that is not likely to be the case on Betfair, it may be one or two ticks at most especially at the front end of the market. Whenever I look at my P&L figures I am staggered by the effect commission has on things - for example I have paid £65 in commission to Betdaq this month and that's with some big losing days where less commission is paid compared to big winning days. I know I will pay more at Betfair, for the foreseaable future at least, but do the benefits outweigh the additional costs? Striker Torres went of at a BSP of 9.25 yesterday whereas I had to chase the price up to 9.4 on Betdaq to get matched. That could have saved me a couple of quid there. Charlie Delta went off at 5.58 BSP whereas I was on at 7.6 so I could have saved £20 there! Getting prices like that will certainly help offset the additional commission payments. OK, there's no guarantee I would have got matched at anything like BSP, I could have been on at a similar price to that I was matched at on Betdaq anyway, but there are certainly signs pointing me towards a switch back to Betfair. If it is not a superior exchange why does it have so many more users (and a greater liquidity) than Betdaq? It's not as though Betdaq is still the new kid on the block any more either.

[MattR]

I think there's a couple of answers to why more people are on Betfair. The biggest one is liquidity. Unless the big players switch then I don't think others will. The second key one I see is the amount of in play stuff they do. There are probably 50-70 football matches in running on a saturday and sunday and they are now also doing unmanaged inplay match odds on the championship and serie B. I think virtually every tennis match on the atp and wta tour is in running as well. Another factor is the amount of markets they do and events they cover.

Mat, what if you were to mix and match for a while? When you go to put your lays in have betfair and betdaq open and simply take the best price, whichever exchange it is on.

[barrelmaniac]

Mathare, you obviously have a certain amount of pressure in your betting, not that its your fault as unfortunately your health has dictated much of the situation that you are in. I hoped that by now betting would be my primary source of income, but unfortunately it hasnt worked out that way (yet).

I was in a position about a year ago when I was about to give up betting, but for me I found myself coming back to it, I came back to it because the the enjoyment that I get from it, not like a gambler in a bookie buzz, but the enjoyment of trying something, learning and understanding while hopefully oneday making some real money from this, so here I am, still here and enjoying my adventure, I decided to try and enjoy the ups and downs with money that I can easily afford to lose.

I know that your situation is different, you certainly put a lot of work into this and I hope it works for you, If I were you I would put this week behind you, regroup your thoughts and keep trying, However if you feel like throwing the towel in again in the future its probably right for you to check your general situation if and when it happens and change accordingly, there is sometimes a time when we stop and think that something is 'just not fun anymore' when it comes to this its time to stop. However I don't think that your adventure is over with betting yet.

[mathare]

Mat, what if you were to mix and match for a while? When you go to put your lays in have betfair and betdaq open and simply take the best price, whichever exchange it is on.

That's a possibility I suppose. I'll give the practicalties of that one some thought

[mathare]

21st December 2009
The Betdaq v Betfair debate is still the major issue and I have been thinking through the pros and cons of each for some time now. I have considered the options, including moving some systems over and checking both exchanges side by side but I just don't think they will work for me. As I said the other day I am not able to focus 100% all of the time (which is another reason why I think I should steer clear of the poker tables) because of the pain so having bets on with two exchanges is likely to lead to error. I know it's a lay bet but should it be with Betdaq or Betfair? If I am checking prices from the two exchanges side by side I could get into a situation where I have an order on one exchange then spot a better price on the rival exchange, take that and before I can cancel it my other order is matched too. If I cancel the order before placing the other bet I could then find the price has moved at the second exchange and I now need to go to the back of the queue at whichever exchange I decide to use for that bet. It's opening up another potential source of error, something I am keen to avoid.

The missus is forcing my hand on this one somewhat, which may not be a bad thing else I may procrastinate excessively, by dragging me out christmas shopping this afternoon so I will need more funds in whichever exchange account I wish to use else I won't be able to cover the bets while I am out. Throw another few hundred into Betdaq and play things out there till I am 100% about this decision (I am currently about 80% or so) or trust my instincts and jump ship to Betfair? This week will be my last on the 4.25% commission rate at Betdaq as I am only 1 point above the level at which I need to have that rate so next week I'd be on 4.5% anyway so commission becomes less of a factor in my decision in some ways. I keep coming back to the fact that Betfair is so much bigger and more popular than Betdaq and the thought that I am now rebelling for the sake of it rather than for any really valid reason so it is looking increasingly likely that I will rejoin the ranks of active Betfair punters. Unless I can think of a good reason not to make the switch back by the first race I will be depositing into my Betfair account and using that instead of my Betdaq account. At least that way I have around a week to get used to Betfair again before the new year starts and I start with a clean fresh outlook on all my betting activities.

[mathare]

29th December 2009
The year is nearly over and I am looking forward to 2010. At least I think I am. My mind is whirring with all sorts of plans but unfortunately very few, if any, of them have a clear path forward. I have some grandiose ideas but I don't know how to get more than a few baby steps along the road to fulfilling these ideas and that bothers me. A lot.

Over christmas I did a lot of thinking (unintentionally really but then I had a lot of downtime) about a couple of football projects I am working on. The first is a long-term study project that has a very fuzzy outline in my head. It's one of those that until I start to do more work on it then I won't really know what it is and what I am trying to get out of it. I couldn't summarise it as present as I don't really understand what I want from this project and where I should be taking it. I have tried to sit down and define it a bit more but find myself unable to do so - I just can't get a clear enough image of what is possible and what use some of the data I have could be. I have to get in there and get my hands mucky before it will start to take shape. It's almost as though I need to start clicking Lego blocks together almost at random, looking hard at they shapes they form, before I work out what it is I am trying to build. And continuing that rather odd analogy, I will probably end up breaking up a number of the Lego structures I do put together before settling on the final design.

The second project isn't much more defined either. I have had an idea for a piece of software in my head for a long time now and have the opportunity to do something about it. But the vision I have is probably two years off in terms of development effort, especially as I don't understand all the technologies that will be required (although I am doing my best to learn them, steadily). As with the previous project, this is likely to be one that takes on several guises before it eventually settles on what will become the final design. With software development though it is always useful to have some sort of plan, milestones through which the software will pass on it's way to completion. I am unable to map out such milestones though as I can't get a proper handle on the design at this stage and that is seriously frustrating me. In fact it's no longer 100% clear to me what the product should do exactly. What's my unique selling point? What makes my software different from other tools that are available? Are those differences enough to give me any sort of market share? Are the differences good? That is to say, is the reason the other tools out there don't do something because it's simply not worth doing? I think this is another of those projects that I am going to have to throw myself into and see where it takes me. It may lead to years of frustration with nothing to show for it at the end or it could lead to a commercial product - I just don't know.

At the end of the day though I have to remain focused on one thing: money. I have to have an income so these projects need to bring in money somehow. They either need to provide me with insight and knowledge that I can apply directly to increase my gambling returns or I need to persuade someone that by bringing me on board in some capacity and using my skills they can make more money and thus should pay me for my time and effort.

This is all fairly vague isn't it? I'm sorry about that but it has to be for several reasons, not least because I want to protect my intellectual property rights at this stage and also because I don't know many details myself!

2010 is going to be an interesting year for me I feel, and hopefully a real turning point in my gambling career. I have set my gambling portfolio up nicely now with a good balance of backs and lays on the horses plus diversification into other sports. I am putting in the hours on the football research, continuing to prod and probe the data looking for new angles of attack that have been missed by others. It won't all be plain sailing but I am hopeful of a good year next year.

[mathare]

9th January
I signed off last year with some old waffle about a couple of major projects I was working on and how I was lacking direction on both. Nothing has really changed, to be honest. I have done a little bit of work on each of them and they have advanced forward in baby steps but no more. I may have come up with a few ideas as to how to take them forward and what they each may become but nothing is for certain there at all.

The poor weather we are experiencing in Britain at present has given me a lot of spare time as it has resulted in a lot of sporting events being cancelled so I have fewer opportunities to get a bet on. Much of that spare time has been spent mulling over how I can make some money. I'm around breakeven or down a little for this month so far and while it is early days I was hoping 2010 would be the year where I finally start to crack this game and push on with my banks. It's not so much that I am getting impatient at that not happening but the lack of opportunity for bank development is starting to frustrate me. I have been pondering the results of some services I follow and looking to see whether I could reasonably step up stakes for them. They are showing a solid enough SR and ROI so I feel I could probably up stakes but I am making sure I am prepared mentally for the greater losses that are associated with losing bets at larger stakes. I don't like to rush these things, I prefer to wait till it feels right.

I am also thinking of other ways I can bring in a bit of cash. I've been doing a little bit of writing, but not as much as I could or should have been doing. Could that bring in a few quid somehow? I have been thinking about going back to the poker tables in search of a few quid. I had been floundering around before but I have started to piece together a bit of a plan that I should see through if I can (which I am usually unable to, admittedly). January for me is all about getting the year off to the right start, making sure I have everything in order so that as the year progresses I am in increasingly better shape to make a full-time income from gambling activities.

[mick56]

9th January
January for me is all about getting the year off to the right start, making sure I have everything in order so that as the year progresses I am in increasingly better shape to make a full-time income from gambling activities.

mathares,enjoyed reading your post,and wish you every success with your new projects.

JAN is perhaps also the most important month of the betting year for myself.On Jan 1st each year i decide the size of the level stake i am going to use through out the coming year,this will mostly be dictated by the amount of working capital available,but this is not the only consideration,this year for example i have decided to use the same stake as last year,because although for the past few years i have been happy to work from a 50pts bank,the poor results i endured during the last quarter of 09,even although they where payed for out of profits all ready accrued on the year,lead me to decide that,for peace of mind i now want to work from a 100pts bank

I agree it is very important to get a good start to the year so that you are reinvesting out of profits and that could prove difficult this time from my memory and records when turf racing resumes after along period of snow we can expect some unpredictable results!.

[mathare]

23rd January 2010
Still no real progress on those two major projects I mentioned in previous entries to this gamblog but with good reason this time - a shift in focus. It's largely about poker for me now, SnGs in particular. I had a small bankroll (a little over $55) in PokerStars that I decided to try and spin up to a more respectable sum playing $5 SnGs. That didn't give me a lot of wiggle room, get it wrong (or just hit some bad luck) early on and I could easily go bust at those stakes but I figured it was worth the risk. I'm not going to dwell on my poker exploits here, that's what my Poker Diary is for but it's going pretty well so far and poker currently accounts for over 10% of my monthly profits but I would like to get this figure up to around 20-25%, preferably by winning more at poker rather than making smaller profits elsewhere.

A couple of weeks ago I spoke of looking where I could up stakes to increase the amount of money coming in. I haven't done much on this front other than check a couple of systems are using the right staking plan (they are, thankfully) but I am waiting for things to settle down a bit on some systems before I make a move up in the stakes but I am mentally prepared for the greater swings that come with larger stakes and certainly look forward to greater profits.

Another thing I touched on a couple of weeks ago was whether I could make some cash as a writer, just on the side. I'm pleased to say that I think I can and am in advanced negotiations on that front. I don't want to say too much more at this stage, not until I have firmed up a few details, but it looks like I might have bagged myself a monthly writing gig, which I am really pleased about.

Diversification - horses, football, poker and now writing. It's all good if it brings in the money :)

[mathare]

29th January 2010
Wolves' draw with Liverpool midweek brings my Premiership draw system to a close for another season with every team bringing in a profit, as the system dictates they should. These profits varied from £4.37 (Stoke) to £817.07 (Chelsea), depending on how often (and when) the teams drew matches. I made a total profit of £1377.79 from a total stake of £1615.84 which equates to a ROI of 85.27%! And not a bad total profit bearing in mind my unit stake was just 25p. OK, some of the stakes got a bit scary despite the low unit stake (£288.23 on Chelsea getting a draw, for example) and there were 15 occasions when the stake on a result was over 100 units (£25). But this is a second successful season for this system which now has a ROI of 77.22% in that period so I am delighted. I modified some of the original system rules to build in a better safety net although at the loss of some of the profits but this season was scary enough with my rules so I dread to think how it would have been with the original rules. I upped my unit stake this season (from 10p last season) and I will consider another step up, perhaps to 50p, in August depending on how various other banks stand at the time as that may require a larger bank than I am willing to use for this system but I will run some numbers over the summer and see.

This season has also seen me extend this system to the SPL, again with great success. That's running off a 10p unit stake just to see how it goes for the first season but with the system still in operation (the rules for stopping haven't been met for the SPL yet) that has a ROI of 38.08% so next season I will probably increase the stakes there (to a 25p unit stake) and perhaps look to include another division or two. I haven't decided yet whether to look at foreign top flights (Italy, Spain etc) or stick with the English leagues and include the Championship or maybe League One or League Two. A job for the summer that one.

[MattR]

Mat, congrats on the draw system When you're considering new leagues over the summer take a look back on Serie B, I found that a very good one, although the prices are in the low 3's as to be expected with the odd 2.9ish.

[mathare]

When you're considering new leagues over the summer take a look back on Serie B, I found that a very good one, although the prices are in the low 3's as to be expected with the odd 2.9ish.

Ah yes. Thanks for the reminder on that. You might need to remind me again in the summer though - I'm useless like that

[tophatter]

Nice work mat, took some bottle to do the big stakes im sure but you had ther research behind you which makes all the difference.

[mathare]

Nice work mat, took some bottle to do the big stakes im sure but you had ther research behind you which makes all the difference.

Totally. Starting out at 25p and ending up at nearly £300 with the prospect of it going much higher if the right result didn't come was pretty scary but as you say I had put in the hours in advance so knew what I was letting myself in for before I put a penny down on this one. It was back-tested over several years and with several variations on the rules before I found a set I was happy to run with. And now I am reaping the benefits. It's especially pleasing to see something work as well as it has because of the tweaks you have put in place, some real rewards for the effort you've put in.

[mathare]

7th February 2010
I have achieved what I set out to achieve on the poker front, for the most part at least. My aim was to spin my bankroll up to a more respectable sum and claim a bonus I had waiting for me. It took me nearly a month but I managed it and feel all the better for it. But now it's probably time for a change in focus. I was playing SnGs as a bankroll builder but there are other poker skills I wish to develop that may take me away from SnGs, I haven't fully decided yet. I am seriously considering a move away from PokerStars though as I don't feel I have had my fair share of luck there. I seem to attract way more bad beats than is healthy. Full Tilt would be my site of choice were I to move, and I currently see no real reason to remain loyal to PokerStars. I can get a 27% rakeback deal with Full Tilt so it would be silly of me not to give them a go at least.

But it's not all about poker for me these days. Yes, it brings in a few quid and by building up my bankroll I increase my earning potential as I can player at higher stakes but there are other long-term projects I need to continue to work on as ultimately they should be able to bring in more money than poker. I'll learn a lot from them along the way too. In my recent poker challenge I set myself a number of objectives, goals I had to meet along the way. The idea was that by being able to tick off these goals as I met them I was able to see real progress and feel as though I was getting somewhere. I have a major software development project that is in the very early stages. I can see quite clearly in my mind what I want the finished project to look like (bits of it anyway) but I know it will take a long time to get there. I don't want that vision to be the only target I have to aim at as it is so far away that I will struggle to be motivated to keep edging slowly in the right direction. I need some intermediate targets to aim for in order to keep me on the right path and so that I feel I am still achieving as I tread the long path towards where I want to be. I would like to document some of these goals in this gamblog, then I know you're all watching me and I have to front up to you lot if I fail along the way. So the first one to start with is:

Complete Visual Basic 2008 Step-by-Step tutorial book by end February

I don't want to set any more objectives at this stage as I am in the very early stages of this development project and it's not meaningful to set more objectives. I have my target now and should be able to meet it quite comfortably so let's get that out the way then I can re-evaluate where to go next.

[mathare]

11th February 2010
Last night's draw between Hibernian and Aberdeen brings to a close my SPL draw system. I started the season with a bank of £200 (to be on the safe side although a much smaller bank ought to have sufficed; it was a nominal sum anyway really) and a unit stake of 10p. The bank didn't drop much below the starting point, reaching a record low of £197.99 and finished yesterday with a new high of £251.51. That's more than a 25% increase on the starting bank, pretty good bearing in mind the bank/stake ratio. 29 winners from 96 bets (30.21% SR) and a ROI of 57.46% - figures I am delighted with. I'll be upping the stakes on this one next season, probably to a 25p unit stake.

I have also realised recently that I am not making the most of the opportunities open to me. I have been paper-trading a system that is profitable after just over 200 bets. I think that's enough evidence for me to go live with it so I shall be adding that one into the mix today. I'm also not making the most of my own lays, the False Favs (which really need renaming as that name is overused in the systems marketplace). I started them with a £500 bank at £5 level stakes when I added them to my portfolio and as the bank shot up, nearly doubling in fact, I added a bank barrier to protect 45% of my max bank (equates to around £425 meaning the most I could really lose was £75 from my starting bank). The full set of lays (which is what I was doing at the time) are around 17pts away from coming back above that barrier so they are all recorded as paper trades in my spreadsheet. But I have shown that the 3/1 to 13/2 range is very profitable and has a great SR so I should really forget about the full set of prices and just concentrate on lays in that range. Then I can make some quick profits rather than waiting for the full set of lays to make another 17pts. I may as well implement the rule change now, forget about the barrier and start reaping the rewards of finding a useful price filter. After all, I shouldn't be ignoring a lay system with an 85% SR and 3% ROI - it should be in my portfolio. How can I claim to be taking a professional approach to gambling when I am spurning opportunities such as these?

[mick56]

Hi mathare ri your above post its really strange because i only started reading your false fav thread this am because of a ref made by another member(page 11 post 310)but when i started looking at your most up todate figs i wondered why you had not concentrated on the most profitable price filter.

What i would like to ask you is have your any racing reasons or thoughts as to why this price area is proving more profitable or is it just a happy coincidence which you can now exploit?. and when you concentrate on this will you still keep paper proofing the less profitable filters. cheers

[mathare]

What i would like to ask you is have your any racing reasons or thoughts as to why this price area is proving more profitable or is it just a happy coincidence which you can now exploit?. and when you concentrate on this will you still keep paper proofing the less profitable filters. cheers

I have put my thoughts on why these filters should work in the thread with the qualifiers although it may be back on page 17 by now. I will continue to publish figures for all filters for a while yet; I won't drop any until it can be proven that they are not worth bothering with. As it is, the full set of filters provide a comparison between selected odds ranges and help guide any followers to the best set of prices for them to use depending on their circumstances. I will post up the full set of qualifiers in that thread every day but will pick and choose only those in a set price bracket to follow myself

[mathare]

16th February 2010
Complete Visual Basic 2008 Step-by-Step tutorial book by end February - Done

That was nice and easy, and completed well inside the deadline I set myself. I thought I could do it quite comfortably and thought about setting a more challenging deadline but one can never be quite sure what might crop up.

In theory now then I have all the skills I need to start real work on Project X. In reality things are very different. Project X is underpinned by a massive database and I have no real experience of database design but I do have resources to help me with that so I'm not too daunted. I will be working on the database and the GUI for this project initially, slowly piecing together bits although it will be many months before anything really comes of this. I hope to learn a lot along the way though and IF I can get it working anywhere near as well as I hope I can then it should be a really good, and useful, product. The end is a long way off though and for now I just need to splash about and try to work out a few little bits to give me some confidence to go on with the grand plans.

[mathare]

16th February 2010 (part two)
A rather inauspicious start to Project X unfortunately. I may have completed the basic training I needed but it seems that what I am trying to do is way beyond what that book covers so I need to continue my own personal development by picking up another book and learning more skills. Sigh. Not entirely unexpected though; the Step by Step guide I went through was an introduction to Visual Basic 2008 as a whole, covering things from the very start. Now I need to go on and learn more about creating dynamic datacentric applications.

I went into town earlier to look round the bookshops as a surf on Amazon had picked out a few books and I wanted to actually flick through them, read some excerpts and work out which book was the right one for me. I live in a university town and the only bookshops we have now are WH Smith, Waterstones and a small stationers-cum-bookshop. Of these, Waterstones is by far the biggest but even their computer section is pathetically stocked. A massive shop and it has only a few shelves with computer books on. Pffft! I am not impressed. Waterstones used to have a branch over by the uni but that's closed down, which is a shame as that did away with a lot of the 'popular' stuff and stocked a lot more academical books.

Are Amazon and the like killing the traditional bookshop? I used to love going in booksops and just browsing around and admittedly I do that with Amazon now. I rarely even thinking of buying a book in a bookshop unless it is drastically reduced from the cover price and I know I can't get it (significantly) cheaper from Amazon so it's hardly suprising that there are so few decent bookshops nowadays but the one time I want one I can't find one.

I have used the "search inside this book" feature on Amazon and narrowed my choice down to a couple of books. Both would help I suspect but which is the better book for me? Unfortunately it looks like I will have to lash out around £20 on one of them and hope it's good enough.

In the meantime I am working on front end and back end bits instead. I still don't really know what the GUI should look like so I can play around with that to some degree. I have also started work on some of the back end data using trusty Excel. It's not ideal as it means I'm not working with a database and I can't be fussed learning to use Access well enough, especially as I want to use a SQL Server database ultimately. However, Excel does mean I can get to grips with how much data I will be handling as well as writing some of the routines to calculate some of the derived data. That ought to give me plenty of time to ponder my book choice.

[mathare]

17th February 2010
After a bit of soul-searching I find myself in a horrible position, one I hoped I'd never be in but in my hearts of hearts I always suspected I would end up here. I'm under pressure to start making things happen on the profit front. In short, I need to bring in some cash soon and prove I can do it on a fairly regular basis.

Personally, I'm happy with my portfolio as is and if the results had gone a little differently so far this year (in both the racing and football) then I would be nicely ahead rather than only slightly ahead, which is where I stand at present. Given time things will blossom nicely I'm sure but time isn't something I have really. I have a couple of months at most, probably, to start making something at least approaching a reasonable income. It's not a problem that that income will be used to increase the banks, reinvesting for a larger potential income later down the line, but I need to prove to the powers that be (the missus) that I can make some reasonable cash from this game.

What does that mean though? It means Project X has shifted immediately to the back burner. It's a great idea and one I still wish to pursue but realistically it could take me a couple of years to get right. A couple of years is fine if I have an income already but I don't so the time that would have been spent on Project X needs to be diverted into trying to earn (win) some money. That means two other projects come online: Project F and Project P.

Project F - put in some serious hours crunching football data finding at least one football system that I am 100% sure will hold up and bring in long-term profits at a reasonable level. Ideally I'd find a high SR system (which will probably have a naturally low ROI) and balance that with a lower SR but higher ROI system. This isn't going to be a quick win though, I do need to put in a lot of effort into getting all the data I want to be able to crunch. Much of it is derived and calculated from the data I have already but I need to write the code to process all that data to produce the new figures and then analyse those to see how best to make a profit from them. My biggest worry with this project is that by the time I get anything out of the other end the football season could be over, or almost over so I am in effect setting up systems to start running in August or September and my grace period could be well over by then.

Project P - start building a proper poker bankroll, putting in the hours at the tables and bringing in some money from online poker. I will start on Full Tilt this afternoon or tomorrow and see how I get on there. It'll be $5 SnGs while I settle and start to grow the bankroll but I have a rough mental roadmap through the stakes so I just need to stick to the plan, stay disciplined and hopefully show I can make a few quid through Project P.

At the end of the day though, I am coming to terms with the fact that I may have tried to go (semi-)pro too early, without the necessary living expenses in hand, separate from my gambling bankroll. It wasn't entirely a conscious decision as I was kind of forced out of work through ill health and am still not 100% by any means so I can't re-join the 9 to 5 world yet but I think when my health improves I will be forced back to the day job for a few years at least. Ho hum, such is life.

[barrelmaniac]

I completely with you mathare, from my calculations I should be flying by now, but its just not happening, I still see the potential and Im sticking with it for now, although it has given me a kick up the backside to get on with the other systemsthat I had on the backburner, I was hoping to go part time with work by now, but unfortunately it looks like another year of hard graft.

Your situation is difficult I agree, with being forced out of work due to health and being under pressure to show results with your betting, its not an easy senario, but as we all know all it takes is a couple of good months are we will all be back on track, however I do appreciate that you have limited time for this to happen, but all the best with what you are currently doing and whatever the future has planned for you.

[mathare]

22nd February 2010
What have I let myself in for? Why do I do this to myself? Project F is massive! To implement all the ideas I have come up with (so far, I'm sure there will be more as time goes on) will take ages. I don't know if Excel is really up to the task but I am going to have to give it a go. The way things are at the minute I am planning to conjure up well over 100, and perhaps nearer 200, bits of information for each match. Some are hard facts, some are calculated or derived figures based on various matchday inputs and there are also over a dozen ratings per team. Never mind the time it's going to take to calculate all this data, it's going to be a nightmare trying to get all the various filters consistent and working as desired. I might never get a flashy front end on this; it may end up as a tool that only VBA-conversant programmers can use, unfortunately. Not a problem for me but it does limit the usefulness of the application away from my desk. With a whizzy front end I could make it useable by pretty much anyone but otherwise it's way too difficult for Joe Public. But Excel isn't designed to do flashy user interfaces and the constraints I would have to work with probably mean Project F results in something only I can use. I'm a bit disappointed by that to be honest but we shall see how things pan out as Project F develops.

[mathare]

26th February 2010
Project F continues at a reasonable pace. Or at least as reasonable as it gets I suppose. It will be a while before I have crunched all the data and calculated everything I want out of it but I know I will get there, eventually. While Excel is stressing one of my cores I have started work on another side project, also football related. Some of you may have read a book called Profitable Football Betting by Paul Steele, certainly if you like betting on football. In it Steele outlines a number of systems and does some testing on them before comparing the various systems to see which is best. He then shows you how to put it all together to pick some winners. The copy of the book I have got is several years old and I can't find a newer updated edition online. Anyway, I think there is some sleight of hand in his system testing so I am going over some of his systems again with my own data. I'm using more data than the author did in this book too. Why? I want to use the ratings some of these systems produce in Project F but want to make sure the ratings I am using are the best of their kind, so I am retesting them all. That too is taking some computing power as some of these systems have 30 or more variations. But I'm getting there.

At the end of this all I hope to use Project F to run some worked examples of developing a football system. At the very least I hope to be able to use it to run through a few scenarios so you can see the approach I am taking and what I am trying to do.

[mathare]

27th February 2010
Back in December I decided to switch my betting exchange of choice from Betdaq to Betfair in search of better liquidity and thus a more competitive market which should hopefully result in a lower overlay, even though this move meant an increase in my commission rate. Has it worked? It's not quite as easy to tell as I would have hoped as I can't easily compare Betdaq and Betfair prices for all my bets, but what I can do is check my overlays for this year so far and see how they compare to those I was getting from Betdaq. Several of the lay systems I follow haven't racked up enough selections so far to make it a statistically significant sample so I will just use those systems that have had enough bets. Ditto for the backs.

Lay'em overlay is better at Betfair
NHPM overlay is unchanged (roughly)
Easy Money overlay is better at Betfair
False Favs overlay is better at Betdaq
Nailed On Lays overlay is unchanged (roughly)

Nailed On AW overlay is unchanged (roughly)
Progeny overlay is better at Betfair

So it looks like the move to Betfair was reasonable enough. I'm still on a higher commission rate at Betfair than I would be at Betdaq but I have improved my overlays on lays and backs. I also have a few new systems that just wouldn't work as well at Betdaq, including some place bets which are fine on Betfair but the place markets on Betdaq had incredibly poor liquidity. I'm satisfied that it was the right move to have made.

[mick56]

Hi mathare these comparisons are always a worthwhile exercise,my own situation is that last Nov i started placing my wagers on betfair as opposed to the early bog prices with bookmakers,i have continued to record the latter and 4 months on find that i would have been slightly better off if i had continued with the bookies but as this covers only 80 individual bets it is early days.I do like the idea as i understand it that BF actually want you to win.

[mathare]

I do like the idea as i understand it that BF actually want you to win.

Betfair don't care whether you win or lose. On each bet that is matched someone will win and someone will lose. Someone will be paying commission on their winnings so the exchange are making their money regardless of what happens. Because of this they have no concerns about big winners racking up plenty of profit, unlike your regular bookies, as it's not coming out of Betfair's pocket.

I still use BOG bookies myself for racing bets, but I always compare their prices with Betfair after factoring in commission to make sure I am truly taking the best price. I check the bookies for other bets such as football and general sports bets too. There are often better prices to be had with a bookie, especially on low liquidity markets such as lower league football. With sites like Oddschecker making it so easy, there is no reason not to shop around for the best odds these days.