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Thread: mathare's gamblog

  1. #181

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    Quote Originally Posted by Laf View Post
    It will be interesting to see what you come up with Mathare. Football systems is an area I have a big interest in and have dabbled with in the past. It was a painstaking process though having to sift through all the data and I just got bored quite quickly. Reading your blog has got me interested again and I might just have a go again while I have some time on my hands.
    Sifting through the data is the boring bit for sure. That's why I have written some VBA to crunch and digest as much as possible for me so I only need tweak the code here and there to produce a comprehensive summary of all the information to see whether it's worth investigating a certain angle further. But even then it takes time to get a fully optimised system out of it. And all I really have at this stage are mini-systems that need to be combined into portfolios to be any real use, and I still haven't really worked out how best to do that.

    I still have a hell of a lot more data to analyse in various ways too and I am slowly beginning to accept it won't all be done before the season starts. I think I need to finish working up a few ideas I have started on (including those form-based mini-systems) before attacking anything new. I have a huge ratings project I am desperate to get my teeth stuck into but can't see that producing anything before the season kicks off unfortunately.

    I'm glad something has caught your interest again though Laf. It'll be interesting to see what you come up. Hope it's good!



  2. #182

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    Thursday 8th July
    There's around five weeks to go till the start of the football season and unless I make a move soon I won't be ready to go when it all kicks off. With that in mind I have stopped plucking out mini-systems from the data I am using and gone back to the form-based mini-systems I pulled out last week (or whenever it was) and have started to seriously think about how to combine them into portfolios.

    There are several ways I can about this, including:
    • trial and error - combine a few mini-systems and see what happens, add/remove them as necessary
    • combine them based on profits - bung the most profitable ones together and forget the rest
    • aim for a fairly even spread of bets throughout the year - but this pre-supposes I have a figure in mind for the number of bets I want from each portfolio (I don't, yet)
    • combine them in such a way that results in a smoothed accumulation of profits - when one system suffers a drop counter it with another whose profit spikes
    • and several other ways too
    So which should I use? That's the tricky question and unfortunately I don't really have an answer at this stage.

    Obviously a smooth profit accumulation is more desirable than a boom-bust profile. I have a record of the number of profitable seasons for each mini-system but not the full profit breakdown so fitting the pieces together to create a smooth profit line is a little tricky.

    I need to think about how many bets I want from each portfolio too, even if it's just an approximate figure. I don't to wait ages between bets or have so few that each bet takes on an added importance with an ability to make or break the season but nor do I want so many bets that the workload for that portfolio is ridiculous. I need to strike a balance somewhere. I dunno, maybe 10-15 bets per week for each portfolio would be about right for a maximum workload. 50-60 a month then, 9 months in a season so somewhere around 500 bets per season at the absolute max, and almost anything below that is acceptable. As long as it's not too low, as I said above. I'm probably looking for at least 80-100 bets per season to give me a reasonable rate of return and reduce the impact of any single bet losing. I can certainly use those figures to provide some initial guidelines and see how it goes from there.

    That still doesn't get me much nearer the best way to combine these various systems though. I think a certain amount of trial and error is going to have to come into it so thank goodness for Excel and VBA which can do virtually all the hard work for me.

    I'd better have a play this afternoon and see what I come up with...



  3. #183

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    Wednesday 14th July
    Well, I've been playing as I said I would. And I think I've got somewhere

    I have taken the 180+ form-based mini-systems and broken them down into five different portfolios - one for each possible result (home win, draw, away win) and one each for under and over 2.5 goals. It's been a slightly awkward process as there are many ways in which I could have combined the various systems within each portfolio. Was I trying to maximise profit? Maximise the ROI? Create the smoothese profit accumulation across the seasons? Balance the number of bets per month? And so on.

    In the end I tinkered until I had a portfolio whose stats seemed 'right' - the number of bets each season seemed OK, the monthly breakdown suited and there was a pretty steady accumulation of profits, that sort of thing. It's not very scientific, it all comes down to feel really. That's not usually my sort of thing, I prefer to have some science behind everything, but I'm going to have to just trust my instincts on this one I think.

    The problem with any football betting system research though is a lack of SP data. The game isn't designed to be a betting medium, unlike dog and horse racing, so there's no concept of starting price. Instead I am relying on data captured by others and trusting that it's correct. This makes me slightly nervous as it means profit figures I have based on that data may or may not be 100% accurate which in turn means I ought to paper trade any system I come up to ensure it works to 'real' odds captured by myself around the time the games take place. That way I know I have reliable data.

    I have yet to work out the details of paper trading these new portfolio systems, including fundamental things like how to get the qualifiers and how/where to conduct the paper trade. I guess watch this space for further details really.

    And although nothing is set in stone at this time (I am still tinkering now and then with the make-up of some of these portfolios) I think it's reasonable to give you some stats for each so you can see what I have been working towards.

    Home Wins (10 season stats)
    2022 bets
    995 winners
    49.21% SR
    319.04pts profit
    15.78% ROI

    Draws (10 season stats):
    2272 bets
    834 winners
    36.71% SR
    561.18pts profit
    24.70% ROI

    Away Wins (10 season stats)
    2065 bets
    839 winners
    40.63% SR
    521.58pts profit
    25.26% ROI

    Under 2.5 (5 season stats)
    2393 bets
    1533 winners
    64.06% SR
    361.42pts profit
    15.10% ROI

    Over 2.5 (5 season stats)
    1534 bets
    935 winners
    60.95% SR
    262.00pts profit
    17.08% ROI

    I'm not going to post profit graphs at this stage but by and large they are reasonably smooth lines going up at around a 45 degree angle for each portfolio, which is just what I was after.

    In a way it seems a shame to effectively dump so many of these mini-systems (I'm only using around 1 in 4 for the portfolios). I have found all these profitable betting angles and I am just ignoring them from now on, but I am doing so having cherry-picked the best combinations (I hope) to form low-risk profitable systems. I've sorted the wheat from the chaff, if you like.

    Now to press on with the other mini-systems I have, based around several ratings, to form those into profitable portfolios.



  4. #184

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    thats what i call a good roi for football, would be worth a bit more research on the sp's though, but looks like some good productive work



  5. #185

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    Monday 2nd August
    I'm still tinkering with football systems and still churning out promising-looking portfolio-based systems so I can't wait for the new season to start this weekend. In fact I think it starts on Friday night doesn't it? Ooh, exciting!

    That means I only have a few days to make sure I am 100% happy with all the portfolios (one of which I have only sketched out so far and haven't finished working on) and how best to use them. I should have somewhere between 8 and 10 portfolios if I can get all the data worked in time. This is quite thrilling for me as it's not often I feel confident enough in my own work to start putting down real money but that's what I plan to do with these portfolios, albeit to small stakes to start with. I have done a lot of backtesting and have double-checked all my figures so I am confident of making a profit and I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and prove my confidence is well-founded.

    I'm also looking to extend the Simplex systems I applied to the Premiership and SPL with great success last season. Over the past couple of days I've looked at extending this idea into the lower divisions of the English league and while it works I'm not sure the risk-reward ratio is right for me. I have yet to make my mind up properly what to do there. I'd like to add at least one new league this season (as well as increasing the stakes on the others) but I haven't found one that really fits the bill yet. I think I'll take a look in Spain and Italy and see what they have to offer...



  6. #186

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    What's Simplex Mat?


    I know what you mean with the excitement. That's what's happened with a couple of systems I've just started (including the one in the thread I just started) The way the system worked and the ratings I used in conjunction with the data all made sense and the strike rate increased as the rating went up which made perfect sense and really suggests that it should work just as the back testing suggested. There was no back fitting or playing around with the data it just all correlated exceptionally well with the rating. Which as you were saying above is the same reason I was ready to jump straight in with real money albeit carefully to start.

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  7. #187

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    My new bots ticking along nicely, and I have some new tennis trading techniques to try, seems easy to make money from unless you've got a really fancied player. More swings in the WTA when both players are similar odds.

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  8. #188

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    Quote Originally Posted by MattR View Post
    What's Simplex Mat?
    It's a football system I bought a few years back and have since tweaked the rules for additional safety without compromising the profits unduly. I won't give away the rules as the authors are still trying to flog it but it's pretty simple and once you know the secret not worth the price they are asking for it now.

    I know what you mean with the excitement. That's what's happened with a couple of systems I've just started (including the one in the thread I just started) The way the system worked and the ratings I used in conjunction with the data all made sense and the strike rate increased as the rating went up which made perfect sense and really suggests that it should work just as the back testing suggested. There was no back fitting or playing around with the data it just all correlated exceptionally well with the rating. Which as you were saying above is the same reason I was ready to jump straight in with real money albeit carefully to start.
    Glad you're making a few quid from your system Matt. I have it on a watching brief at the minute



  9. #189

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    Tuesday 3rd August
    I think I'll take a look in Spain and Italy and see what they have to offer...
    That's much more like it! At least it is for the Italian leagues, the less said about La Liga the better really.

    In loose terms the system I am looking to extend is a loss-chasing system that involves the kind of staking I hate. It's Martingale, sort of. At least only 'sort of' the way I manage it. But that's by the by here. All you really need to know at this stage is that I am starting with a 10p unit stake in my calculations. Doesn't sound like a lot (and it's not, really) but it can get quite big quite quickly and that's when the real profits are made. Or not in the case of La Liga as that division has shown the only losses I have ever known this system make. That comes courtesy of Alaves in 2001-02 and from just a 10p unit stake the losses on that one team mounted up to £221,536.99 - yes, nearly a quarter of a million quid! The largest stake got up to £83,076.75! Even ignoring outliers such as this (and one shouldn't ignore them completely as it shows freak sets of results can happen) the risk-reward ratios just don't stack up so La Liga gets put to one side. Incidentally, I checked out the Segunda Liga (Spanish second division) and it was a hell of a lot better. But I'm not comfortable picking out lower divisions if the method doesn't apply equally to the upper echelons of football. It smacks too much of back-fitting when one picks and chooses like that. There is no reason I know of that the second division in Spain should be any different really to the top-flight so I am wary of this method working well for one and not the other. If it worked for La Liga but not the lower divisions (as is the case with England's Premiership) then I am far less worried. I trust top quality teams more than I do their lesser counterparts.

    Over to Italy though and everything seems pretty rosy. I've only just finished churning the numbers out (and I've got it down pat now and can run a whole new country's leagues in only a couple of hours) but they look pretty good, for both Serie A and Serie B so I think I have found what I was looking for. In terms of risk-reward ratios both divisions are better than the lower divisions of the Football League. And with the new portfolio systems I will be following I don't want to overextend myself with too many new systems as that increases the chance of a visit from the cock-up fairy so adding in Serie A and maybe Serie B seems like the right move. But I have a few weeks to mull that one over as the Italian leagues don't start up till the end of the month.

    Before I settle on Italy though I should just have a quick look at the other Scottish divisions...



  10. #190

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    Tuesday 3rd August (part two)
    Scot Div 1 - no
    Scot Div 2 - yes
    Scot Div 3 - no

    Because it only really works in Scottish Division Two and not the divisions either side I'm ignoring the lower Scottish divisions. So I'm sticking with the Premiership, SPL and then Serie A and perhaps Serie B too. Phew! It's been a busy couple of days but well worth it.



  11. #191

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    Nice read mate .. .. a gamblog in life of a bloody good winner




  12. #192

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    26k posts and now nothing. I've noticed similar with a few other members, bigc, vegyjones and such. Did everyone just fail and pack up?



  13. #193

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    Hi ProPocer,

    You have to understand that this forum has been established for as near as damnit 10 years, and the members' names you are quoting have been part of the Win2Win community for most of that time.

    Over such a long period, however, peoples personal life circumstances are very likely to change in some form or other, and that's why Mathare and BigCumba have presumably not posted for a while.
    It's not a matter of their betting 'habits' having failed and they've stopped posting as a result, they just have more important issues in their lives that have taken precedence over this forum for the time being.
    It's also important to understand that people post on here for different reasons......Vegyjones and myself for example.
    Vegy is a long term extremely highly respected member of this forum, most definitely for his very humorous posts along with his amusing light-hearted slant on life in general, but some may say not for his betting/tipping prowess......and then there's me.....
    ......all I've ever done on here is to try and keep members amused by posting quizzes and games over the years, hence my low post count.
    I AM a gambler, and have learnt a LOT from this forum over the years, made a few bob as a result, and can probably learn and earn even more, hence the reason I'm still here.



  14. #194

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    BigC has a new relationship and travels a lot these days, Mat has been very ill, etc, etc....

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  15. #195

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    Oh dear. I thought it seemed strange from someone who posts so in depth. Nothing too serious I hope



  16. #196

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    Quote Originally Posted by ProPocer View Post
    Oh dear. I thought it seemed strange from someone who posts so in depth. Nothing too serious I hope
    He's still breathing which is usually a good sign

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  17. #197

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ada View Post
    Hi ProPocer,

    You have to understand that this forum has been established for as near as damnit 10 years, and the members' names you are quoting have been part of the Win2Win community for most of that time.

    Over such a long period, however, peoples personal life circumstances are very likely to change in some form or other, and that's why Mathare and BigCumba have presumably not posted for a while.
    It's not a matter of their betting 'habits' having failed and they've stopped posting as a result, they just have more important issues in their lives that have taken precedence over this forum for the time being.
    It's also important to understand that people post on here for different reasons......Vegyjones and myself for example.
    Vegy is a long term extremely highly respected member of this forum, most definitely for his very humorous posts along with his amusing light-hearted slant on life in general, but some may say not for his betting/tipping prowess......and then there's me.....
    ......all I've ever done on here is to try and keep members amused by posting quizzes and games over the years, hence my low post count.
    I AM a gambler, and have learnt a LOT from this forum over the years, made a few bob as a result, and can probably learn and earn even more, hence the reason I'm still here.




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