mathare's Team Ratings Systems

[mathare]

I've picked out one of the worst-performing systems to examine - Football League Linear which is showing a loss of nearly 40pts this season (although only 6.30pts since the paper trade started). I have produced a graph of the profits prior to this season and attached it. It shows there have been bad spells before but not this bad.

Now, that's only 1 system out of many but I think the reason for the poor showing from these systems is a bit of bad luck as well as the fact that they are not that well thought out. A lot of work went into them but the basic premise is a bit dodgy as it takes each team in isolation without considering the strength of the opposition at all.

As I said a few minutes ago, I'm going to be working on other systems soon and they will be far better prepared than these have been. They will also be more complicated in terms of the rules as this is quite simplistic. I fear I may have back-fitted elements of some of these system too as the odds have to be in a certain range for a team to qualify and while I can sort of justify these odds filters it may be a little dodgy to use them as I have done.

[mathare]

You have to admit that was a pretty special performance this weekend. I got both Friday night games in League Two right and then nothing at all on Saturday! 0 out of 38 on Saturday

[mathare]

Linear
16/02/2010 Stoke v Man City @ 5/2
16/02/2010 Sheffield Weds v Doncaster @ 14/5
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2
17/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Reading @ 5/2

Logarithmic
16/02/2010 Cardiff v West Brom @ 13/8
16/02/2010 Derby v Preston @ 9/4
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4

Polynomial
16/02/2010 Cardiff v West Brom @ 13/8
16/02/2010 Derby v Preston @ 9/4

Premiership - Linear
None

Premiership - Polynomial
None

Championship - Linear
16/02/2010 Bristol City v Leicester @ 9/5
16/02/2010 Nott'm Forest v Sheffield United @ 15/4
17/02/2010 Newcastle v Coventry @ 13/2

Championship - Logarithmic
16/02/2010 Nott'm Forest v Sheffield United @ 15/4
17/02/2010 Newcastle v Coventry @ 13/2

Championship - Polynomial
16/02/2010 Bristol City v Leicester @ 9/5
16/02/2010 Nott'm Forest v Sheffield United @ 15/4
17/02/2010 Newcastle v Coventry @ 13/2

League One - Linear
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4

League One - Logarithmic
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4

League One - Polynomial
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4

League Two - Linear
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2

League Two - Logarithmic
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2

League Two - Polynomial
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2

Football League - Linear
16/02/2010 Cardiff v West Brom @ 13/8
16/02/2010 Derby v Preston @ 9/4
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2
17/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Reading @ 5/2
17/02/2010 Notts County v Grimsby @ 7/1

Football League - Logarithmic
16/02/2010 Cardiff v West Brom @ 13/8
16/02/2010 Derby v Preston @ 9/4
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4
17/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Reading @ 5/2

Football League - Polynomial
16/02/2010 Cardiff v West Brom @ 13/8
16/02/2010 Derby v Preston @ 9/4
16/02/2010 Carlisle v Huddersfield @ 7/4
16/02/2010 Morecambe v Burton @ 5/2
17/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Reading @ 5/2
17/02/2010 Notts County v Grimsby @ 7/1

[mathare]

Better than at the weekend but still not great :(

[mathare]

Linear
20/02/2010 Everton v Man United @ 5/6
20/02/2010 Blackpool v Reading @ 5/2
20/02/2010 QPR v Doncaster @ 12/5
20/02/2010 Walsall v Brentford @ 12/5
20/02/2010 Wycombe v Millwall @ 11/4
20/02/2010 Accrington v Bradford @ 11/4
20/02/2010 Darlington v Chesterfield @ 10/3
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3
21/02/2010 Wigan v Tottenham @ 14/5
21/02/2010 Bristol City v West Brom @ 11/4

Logarithmic
20/02/2010 Everton v Man United @ 5/6
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 Wycombe v Millwall @ 11/4
21/02/2010 Man City v Liverpool @ 3/2

Polynomial
20/02/2010 Wycombe v Millwall @ 11/4
20/02/2010 Darlington v Chesterfield @ 10/3
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3
21/02/2010 Man City v Liverpool @ 3/2

Premiership - Linear
20/02/2010 Portsmouth v Stoke @ 9/4
21/02/2010 Blackburn v Bolton @ 10/3

Premiership - Polynomial
20/02/2010 Portsmouth v Stoke @ 9/4
21/02/2010 Blackburn v Bolton @ 10/3

Championship - Linear
20/02/2010 Cardiff v Barnsley @ 9/2
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 Newcastle v Preston @ 6/1

Championship - Logarithmic
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 Newcastle v Preston @ 6/1

Championship - Polynomial
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 Newcastle v Preston @ 6/1

League One - Linear
20/02/2010 Walsall v Brentford @ 12/5

League One - Logarithmic
None

League One - Polynomial
20/02/2010 Walsall v Brentford @ 12/5

League Two - Linear
19/02/2010 Bury v Shrewsbury @ 3/1
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3

League Two - Logarithmic
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3

League Two - Polynomial
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3

Football League - Linear
20/02/2010 Blackpool v Reading @ 5/2
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 QPR v Doncaster @ 12/5
20/02/2010 Exeter v Stockport @ 4/1
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3

Football League - Logarithmic
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5

Football League - Polynomial
20/02/2010 Blackpool v Reading @ 5/2
20/02/2010 Crystal Palace v Coventry @ 13/5
20/02/2010 QPR v Doncaster @ 12/5
20/02/2010 Port Vale v Barnet @ 10/3

[mathare]

It doesn't look that impressive from the colouring above but if my sums are correct it represents a profit of 44.43pts across all systems

[mathare]

Linear
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4
23/02/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Millwall @ 21/10
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/1
23/02/2010 Wycombe v Southampton @ 3/1
23/02/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5 - postponed
23/02/2010 Port Vale v Lincoln @ 3/1

Logarithmic
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10
23/02/2010 Tranmere v Huddersfield @ 23/10
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/11
23/02/2010 Darlington v Notts County @ 4/1 - postponed

Polynomial
None

Premiership - Linear
None

Premiership - Polynomial
None

Championship - Linear
None

Championship - Logarithmic
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10

Championship - Polynomial
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10

League One - Linear
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/1

League One - Logarithmic
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/1

League One - Polynomial
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4

League Two - Linear
22/02/2010 Rotherham v Shrewsbury @ 3/1
23/02/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5 - postponed

League Two - Logarithmic
23/02/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5 - postponed

League Two - Polynomial
23/02/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5 - postponed

Football League - Linear
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10
23/02/2010 Charlton v Brighton @ 11/2
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4
23/02/2010 Swindon v Stockport @ 15/2
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/1
23/02/2010 Rochdale v Bradford @ 6/1

Football League - Logarithmic
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10
23/02/2010 Charlton v Brighton @ 11/2
23/02/2010 Walsall v Yeovil @ 3/1
23/02/2010 Aldershot v Dag and Red @ 13/5

Football League - Polynomial
23/02/2010 Doncaster v Leicester @ 19/10
23/02/2010 Charlton v Brighton @ 11/2
23/02/2010 Gillingham v Leyton Orient @ 11/4
23/02/2010 Swindon v Stockport @ 15/2
23/02/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5 - postponed
23/02/2010 Aldershot v Dag and Red @ 13/5
23/02/2010 Rochdale v Bradford @ 6/1

[mathare]

Up 56.2pts midweek

[mathare]

Linear
27/02/2010 Doncaster v Crystal Palace @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Huddersfield v Leeds @ 9/5
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4

Logarithmic
27/02/2010 Macclesfield v Rochdale @ 7/2
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4

Polynomial
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

Premiership - Linear
27/02/2010 Birmingham v Wigan @ 10/3

Premiership - Polynomial
None

Championship - Linear
27/02/2010 Barnsley v Blackpool @ 21/10
27/02/2010 Sheffield United v Plymouth @ 11/2
27/02/2010 Swansea v Peterboro @ 15/2
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2

Championship - Logarithmic
27/02/2010 Sheffield United v Plymouth @ 11/2
27/02/2010 Swansea v Peterboro @ 15/2
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2

Championship - Polynomial
27/02/2010 Swansea v Peterboro @ 15/2
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2

League One - Linear
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5

League One - Logarithmic
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5

League One - Polynomial
27/02/2010 Brighton v Exeter @ 10/3
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5

League Two - Linear
None

League Two - Logarithmic
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

League Two - Polynomial
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

Football League - Linear
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5
27/02/2010 Millwall v Hartlepool @ 6/1
27/02/2010 Southampton v Walsall @ 5/1
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Notts County v Hereford @ 6/1
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

Football League - Logarithmic
27/02/2010 Barnsley v Blackpool @ 21/10
27/02/2010 Swansea v Peterboro @ 15/2
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5
27/02/2010 Southampton v Walsall @ 5/1
27/02/2010 Dag and Red v Grimsby @ 9/2
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Notts County v Hereford @ 6/1
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

Football League - Polynomial
27/02/2010 Leicester v Nott'm Forest @ 9/5
27/02/2010 West Brom v Derby @ 11/2
27/02/2010 Bristol Rvs v Colchester @ 8/5
27/02/2010 Millwall v Hartlepool @ 6/1
27/02/2010 Southampton v Walsall @ 5/1
27/02/2010 Morecambe v Port Vale @ 11/4
27/02/2010 Notts County v Hereford @ 6/1
27/02/2010 Shrewsbury v Bournemouth @ 11/5

[mathare]

0 again! That's a loss of 49 points A good midweek wiped out by a rubbish weekend.

[mathare]

Linear
02/03/2010 Aldershot v Bradford @ 5/2
02/03/2010 Cheltenham v Hereford @ 5/2

League One - Logarithmic
02/03/2010 Bristol Rvs v Stockport @ 5/1

Football League - Linear
02/03/2010 Notts County v Macclesfield @ 7/1

Football League - Polynomial
02/03/2010 Notts County v Macclesfield @ 7/1

[mathare]

I cocked up a bit in midweek and promoted a few teams from League One to the Championship and then tried to bet on them! I have since deleted these as they were utterly wrong! Apologies for any confusion.

[mathare]

Linear
06/03/2010 Bristol City v Doncaster @ 11/4
06/03/2010 Cardiff v Middlesbrough @ 5/2
06/03/2010 Derby v Watford @ 3/1
06/03/2010 QPR v West Brom @ 11/4
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Aldershot v Burton @ 3/1
06/03/2010 Crewe v Barnet @ 3/1
06/03/2010 Hereford v Macclesfield @ 3/1

Logarithmic
None

Polynomial
06/03/2010 Blackpool v Ipswich @ 23/10

Premiership - Linear
None

Premiership - Polynomial
None

Championship - Linear
06/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Swansea @ 3/1
06/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Leicester @ 13/8

Championship - Logarithmic
06/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Swansea @ 3/1

Championship - Polynomial
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Walsall v Millwall @ 7/5

League One - Linear
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Walsall v Millwall @ 7/5

League One - Logarithmic
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Walsall v Millwall @ 7/5

League One - Polynomial
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10

League Two - Linear
06/03/2010 Aldershot v Burton @ 3/1
06/03/2010 Rotherham v Bradford @ 10/3

League Two - Logarithmic
None

League Two - Polynomial
06/03/2010 Aldershot v Burton @ 3/1
06/03/2010 Rotherham v Bradford @ 10/3

Football League - Linear
06/03/2010 Blackpool v Ipswich @ 23/10
06/03/2010 Bristol City v Doncaster @ 11/4
06/03/2010 Cardiff v Middlesbrough @ 5/2
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Walsall v Millwall @ 7/5

Football League - Logarithmic
06/03/2010 Blackpool v Ipswich @ 23/10
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10

Football League - Polynomial
06/03/2010 Blackpool v Ipswich @ 23/10
06/03/2010 Bristol City v Doncaster @ 11/4
06/03/2010 Cardiff v Middlesbrough @ 5/2
06/03/2010 Hartlepool v Southend @ 29/10
06/03/2010 Walsall v Millwall @ 7/5
06/03/2010 Crewe v Barnet @ 3/1

[mathare]

A pretty poor weekend again

[mathare]

Linear
09/03/2010 Portsmouth v Birmingham @ 11/5
09/03/2010 Sunderland v Bolton @ 3/1
09/03/2010 Crystal Palace v Bristol City @ 3/1
09/03/2010 Preston v Doncaster @ 5/2
09/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon @ 11/5
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2
09/03/2010 Crewe v Grimsby @ 7/22

Logarithmic
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2

Polynomial
None

Premiership - Linear
09/03/2010 Portsmouth v Birmingham @ 11/5
09/03/2010 Sunderland v Bolton @ 3/1

Premiership - Polynomial
08/03/2010 Wigan v Liverpool @ 8/13
09/03/2010 Sunderland v Bolton @ 3/1

Championship - Linear
09/03/2010 West Brom v Sheffield Weds @ 7/1

Championship - Logarithmic
09/03/2010 Watford v Swansea @ 13/8
09/03/2010 West Brom v Sheffield Weds @ 7/1

Championship - Polynomial
09/03/2010 West Brom v Sheffield Weds @ 7/1

League One - Linear
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2

League One - Logarithmic
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2
09/03/2010 Oldham v Leyton Orient @ 12/5

League One - Polynomial
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2

League Two - Linear
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2
09/03/2010 Crewe v Grimsby @ 7/2

League Two - Logarithmic
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2

League Two - Polynomial
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2
09/03/2010 Crewe v Grimsby @ 7/2

Football League - Linear
09/03/2010 Preston v Doncaster @ 5/2
09/03/2010 Watford v Swansea @ 13/8
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2
09/03/2010 Crewe v Grimsby @ 7/2

Football League - Logarithmic
09/03/2010 Watford v Swansea @ 13/8
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2
09/03/2010 Oldham v Leyton Orient @ 12/5
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2

Football League - Polynomial
09/03/2010 Preston v Doncaster @ 5/2
09/03/2010 Watford v Swansea @ 13/8
09/03/2010 Carlisle v Millwall @ 3/2
09/03/2010 Accrington v Macclesfield @ 7/2
09/03/2010 Crewe v Grimsby @ 7/2

[mathare]

A loss of just over 3pts midweek

[mathare]

Linear
13/03/2010 Birmingham v Everton @ 2/1
13/03/2010 Birmingham v Everton @ 3/2
13/03/2010 Bolton v Wigan @ 14/5
13/03/2010 Stoke v Aston Villa @ 12/5
13/03/2010 Doncaster v Derby @ 11/4
13/03/2010 Leicester v Cardiff @ 11/4
13/03/2010 Sheffield United v QPR @ 14/5
13/03/2010 Millwall v Charlton @ 12/5
13/03/2010 Southampton v Leeds @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2
14/03/2010 Sunderland v Man City @ 11/4

Logarithmic
13/03/2010 Stoke v Aston Villa @ 13/10
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Huddersfield v Norwich @ 7/4
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4

Polynomial
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2

Premiership - Linear
13/03/2010 Birmingham v Everton @ 3/2
13/03/2010 Bolton v Wigan @ 14/5
13/03/2010 Stoke v Aston Villa @ 13/10

Premiership - Polynomial
13/03/2010 Bolton v Wigan @ 14/5
14/03/2010 Sunderland v Man City @ 6/5

Championship - Linear
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Ipswich v Scunthorpe @ 9/2
13/03/2010 Reading v Bristol City @ 4/1
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2

Championship - Logarithmic
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Ipswich v Scunthorpe @ 9/2
13/03/2010 Reading v Bristol City @ 4/1
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2

Championship - Polynomial
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2

League One - Linear
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4

League One - Logarithmic
13/03/2010 Brentford v Milton Keynes Dons @ 7/4
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Carlisle v Colchester @ 13/8
13/03/2010 Huddersfield v Norwich @ 13/8
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4

League One - Polynomial
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Huddersfield v Norwich @ 13/8

League Two - Linear
13/03/2010 Burton v Cheltenham @ 15/4
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2

League Two - Logarithmic
None

League Two - Polynomial
13/03/2010 Burton v Cheltenham @ 15/4
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2

Football League - Linear
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Doncaster v Derby @ 11/4
13/03/2010 Sheffield United v QPR @ 14/5
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Carlisle v Colchester @ 13/8
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2
13/03/2010 Northampton v Darlington @ 8/1

Football League - Logarithmic
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Doncaster v Derby @ 11/4
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4
13/03/2010 Bradford v Aldershot @ 12/5

Football League - Polynomial
13/03/2010 Barnsley v Crystal Palace @ 23/10
13/03/2010 Doncaster v Derby @ 11/4
13/03/2010 Preston v Nott'm Forest @ 3/2
13/03/2010 Sheffield United v QPR @ 14/5
13/03/2010 Swansea v Sheffield Weds @ 6/1
13/03/2010 West Brom v Blackpool @ 11/2
13/03/2010 Brighton v Swindon @ 9/5
13/03/2010 Carlisle v Colchester @ 13/8
13/03/2010 Leyton Orient v Walsall @ 9/4
13/03/2010 Morecambe v Grimsby @ 7/2
13/03/2010 Northampton v Darlington @ 8/1

[mathare]

I think it's fair to say this isn't exactly going as I would have liked. I don't think these systems will be making much of an appearance next season...

[mathare]

Linear
16/03/2010 Wigan v Aston Villa @ 5/2
16/03/2010 Reading v QPR @ 3/1
16/03/2010 Brighton v Brentford @ 13/5

Logarithmic
16/03/2010 Wigan v Aston Villa @ 5/4

Polynomial
16/03/2010 Wigan v Aston Villa @ 5/2
16/03/2010 Wigan v Aston Villa @ 5/4
16/03/2010 Coventry v Cardiff @ 11/5

Championship - Logarithmic
16/03/2010 Barnsley v Nott'm Forest @ 13/8
16/03/2010 Crystal Palace v Leicester @ 17/10

Championship - Polynomial
16/03/2010 Crystal Palace v Leicester @ 17/10

Football League - Linear
16/03/2010 Barnsley v Nott'm Forest @ 13/8
16/03/2010 Coventry v Cardiff @ 11/5
16/03/2010 Southampton v Swindon @ 4/1

Football League - Logarithmic
16/03/2010 Barnsley v Nott'm Forest @ 13/8
16/03/2010 Coventry v Cardiff @ 11/5
16/03/2010 Crystal Palace v Leicester @ 17/10
16/03/2010 Southampton v Swindon @ 4/1

Football League - Polynomial
16/03/2010 Barnsley v Nott'm Forest @ 13/8
16/03/2010 Coventry v Cardiff @ 11/5
16/03/2010 Southampton v Swindon @ 4/1

[mathare]

Hmm, up over 20pts midweek across all systems

[mathare]

Linear
20/03/2010 Stoke v Tottenham @ 11/4
20/03/2010 Middlesbrough v Reading @ 13/5
20/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Plymouth @ 14/5
20/03/2010 Burton v Chesterfield @ 3/1
20/03/2010 Rotherham v Bury @ 11/5
21/03/2010 Fulham v Man City @ 12/5
21/03/2010 Man United v Liverpool @ 7/10

Logarithmic
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Accrington v Rochdale @ 5/2
20/03/2010 Crewe v Notts County @ 5/2
21/03/2010 Fulham v Man City @ 11/8

Polynomial
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Swindon v Norwich @ 7/5
20/03/2010 Accrington v Rochdale @ 5/2

Premiership - Linear
20/03/2010 Sunderland v Birmingham @ 5/2
21/03/2010 Blackburn v Chelsea @ 1/2

Premiership - Polynomial
20/03/2010 Stoke v Tottenham @ 15/13
21/03/2010 Blackburn v Chelsea @ 1/2

Championship - Linear
20/03/2010 Ipswich v Barnsley @ 4/1
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5

Championship - Logarithmic
20/03/2010 Ipswich v Barnsley @ 4/1
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1

Championship - Polynomial
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5

League One - Linear
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Swindon v Norwich @ 7/5

League One - Logarithmic
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Swindon v Norwich @ 7/5
20/03/2010 Walsall v Colchester @ 8/5

League One - Polynomial
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Swindon v Norwich @ 7/5

League Two - Linear
20/03/2010 Rotherham v Bury @ 11/5

League Two - Logarithmic
20/03/2010 Rotherham v Bury @ 11/5

League Two - Polynomial
20/03/2010 Rotherham v Bury @ 11/5

Football League - Linear
20/03/2010 Doncaster v Sheffield United @ 9/4
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5
20/03/2010 Charlton v Gillingham @ 11/2
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2

Football League - Logarithmic
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5
20/03/2010 Charlton v Gillingham @ 11/2
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
20/03/2010 Swindon v Norwich @ 7/5
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2

Football League - Polynomial
20/03/2010 Doncaster v Sheffield United @ 9/4
20/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Peterboro @ 7/1
20/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Derby @ 13/5
20/03/2010 Charlton v Gillingham @ 11/2
20/03/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton @ 7/4
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2

[mathare]

Another poor weekend, losing 22.77pts. Not even a win for Millwall tonight will pull that back.

We're getting towards the end of the season now with 6 or 7 weeks left and that's probably a good time to start looking at the figures for these systems with a view to seeing what might return next season. None of the individual fit systems are likely to survive the summer. Only one (Logarithmic Away) has shown a profit during the paper trade and only that one and the Linear Home system are profitable over the course of the season. It's fair to say these were interesting ideas that haven't panned out for whatever reason. Never mind, move on. When it comes to the divisional systems it's clear that this approach is only really working in League Two. I'm not really sure why, perhaps the odds get less attention from the odds compilers offering more value opportunities in this division. Who knows for sure? The League Two Logarithmic system is the weakest of the three in that division but is still profitable over the season as a whole. The other fits in this division have done pretty well during the paper trade and overall though and seem to be returning good profits and at decent ROI too so these may well make an appearance next season. Still a few weeks to go though...

[mathare]

Linear
23/03/2010 Doncaster v Newcastle @ 11/4
23/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Peterboro @ 16/5
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5
23/03/2010 Darlington v Aldershot @ 7/2
24/03/2010 Leicester v Reading @ 11/4
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4

Logarithmic
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5

Polynomial
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5
23/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Peterboro @ 16/5

Championship - Linear
23/03/2010 Middlesbrough v Preston @ 9/2
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
23/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Peterboro @ 16/5
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4
24/03/2010 West Brom v Coventry @ 13/2

Championship - Logarithmic
23/03/2010 Middlesbrough v Preston @ 9/2
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
24/03/2010 West Brom v Coventry @ 13/2

Championship - Polynomial
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5
23/03/2010 Middlesbrough v Preston @ 9/2
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4
24/03/2010 West Brom v Coventry @ 13/2

League Two - Linear
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5

League Two - Logarithmic
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5

League Two - Polynomial
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5

Football League - Linear
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
23/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Peterboro @ 16/5
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4

Football League - Logarithmic
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
23/03/2010 Southampton v Hartlepool @ 15/2
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4

Football League - Polynomial
22/03/2010 Leeds v Millwall @ 7/2
23/03/2010 Bristol City v Barnsley @ 12/5
23/03/2010 Doncaster v Newcastle @ 6/5
23/03/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace @ 11/2
23/03/2010 Scunthorpe v Peterboro @ 16/5
23/03/2010 Accrington v Burton @ 13/5
24/03/2010 Sheffield Weds v Watford @ 11/4

[mathare]

It's still only those League Two systems that are looking likely to return next year

[mathare]

Linear
27/03/2010 West Ham v Stoke @ 11/4
27/03/2010 Wolves v Everton @ 14/5
27/03/2010 Coventry v Sheffield Weds @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Brentford v Leyton Orient @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Huddersfield v Charlton @ 12/5
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Morecambe v Torquay @ 16/5
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5

Logarithmic
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Exeter v Walsall @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1

Polynomial
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1

Premiership - Linear
27/03/2010 Bolton v Man United @ 4/9
27/03/2010 Hull v Fulham @ 21/10
27/03/2010 West Ham v Stoke @ 11/4

Premiership - Polynomial
27/03/2010 Birmingham v Arsenal @ 4/7
27/03/2010 Bolton v Man United @ 4/9
27/03/2010 Hull v Fulham @ 21/10
27/03/2010 Wolves v Everton @ 11/10

Championship - Linear
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Crystal Palace v Cardiff @ 7/4
28/03/2010 Sheffield United v Scunthorpe @ 5/1
29/03/2010 Newcastle v Nott'm Forest @ 9/2

Championship - Logarithmic
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
28/03/2010 Sheffield United v Scunthorpe @ 5/1
29/03/2010 Newcastle v Nott'm Forest @ 9/2

Championship - Polynomial
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Derby v Leicester @ 7/4
29/03/2010 Newcastle v Nott'm Forest @ 9/2

League One - Linear
None

League One - Logarithmic
27/03/2010 Brentford v Leyton Orient @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Exeter v Walsall @ 9/4

League One - Polynomial
27/03/2010 Brentford v Leyton Orient @ 3/1

League Two - Linear
27/03/2010 Bury v Aldershot @ 16/5
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5

League Two - Logarithmic
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5

League Two - Polynomial
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5

Football League - Linear
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Coventry v Sheffield Weds @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Colchester v Wycombe @ 11/2
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5
27/03/2010 Shrewsbury v Darlington @ 8/1

Football League - Logarithmic
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Derby v Leicester @ 7/4
27/03/2010 Reading v West Brom @ 13/8
27/03/2010 Colchester v Wycombe @ 11/2
27/03/2010 Exeter v Walsall @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Millwall v Stockport @ 11/1
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5

Football League - Polynomial
27/03/2010 Barnsley v Doncaster @ 9/4
27/03/2010 Coventry v Sheffield Weds @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Colchester v Wycombe @ 11/2
27/03/2010 Macclesfield v Cheltenham @ 3/1
27/03/2010 Morecambe v Torquay @ 16/5
27/03/2010 Port Vale v Crewe @ 14/5
27/03/2010 Shrewsbury v Darlington @ 8/1