Half Time Draws and Aways

[MattR]

EDIT THIS IS ONLY GOING TO BE AWAY WINS NOW.



These are going to be what are calculated as Value bets on the Half Time market for either the Draw or the Away. By nature of the type of bets there will be plenty of losing bets as the angle here is value and more ofthen than not it won't be the favourite outcome (occasionally the draw may be). It is simply trying to focus in on a good bet at the price. I have been paper testing these and after 50-60 bets the draws are showing a small profit and the aways are just over £30 in profit, all to £2 level stakes.

I am going to now test them live with level stakes of £2. For the time being I will keep it at level stakes but should they show profit then I will possibly look to increase the stake by 50p for each £50 profit gained as we go. The games looked at will generally be all those live on betfair each day (although it probably won't be all of them on saturday and sunday)


30th November
Diagoras v Pierikos Away 4.70
OB v Koge Away 14.50
Kaiserslautern v Armenia Bielefeld Away 4.70
Caen v Le Havre Away 6.00
Mantova v Cittadella Away 4.90
Braga v Leira Away 8.20

[MattR]

HT scores:

Diagoras v Pierikos Away 4.70 0-1
OB v Koge Away 14.50 0-0
Kaiserslautern v Armenia Bielefeld Away 4.70 0-0
Caen v Le Havre Away 6.00 1-0
Mantova v Cittadella Away 4.90 1-1
Braga v Leira Away 8.20 1-0


Results
1/6
Pr/Lo -2.97


Just 1 for today

Ergotelis v Larissa 5.50

[MattR]

HT Score

Ergotelis v Larissa 5.50 0-0

Lost

Results
1/7
Pr/Lo -4.97


Friday

Slavia Sofia v Beroe 6.80

more to follow later

[MattR]

Friday

Slavia Sofia v Beroe 6.80 0-0 (eventually lost but went ahead after 48
mins )


Fortuna Duss v Bielefeld 3.80
Besiktas v Diyarbakirspor 12.50
Bastia v Clermont 5.00
Le Havre v Chateauroux 6.20
Tours v Brest 5.40
Metz v Ajaccio 6.80
Dijon v Vannes 5.40
Laval v Angers 5.70
Guingamp v Sedan 5.50
Bayern M v M'Gladbach 10.00
AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse 9.00
Roda v ADO Den Haag 4.90
Albinoleffe v Lecce 3.55

[MattR]

Slavia Sofia v Beroe 6.80 0-0 -2.00
Fortuna Duss v Bielefeld 3.80 2-0 -2.00
Besiktas v Diyarbakirspor 12.50 0-0 -2.00
Bastia v Clermont 5.00 0-3 +7.60 :)
Le Havre v Chateauroux 6.20 1-0 -2.00
Tours v Brest 5.40 0-1 +8.36 :)
Metz v Ajaccio 6.80 1-0 -2.00
Dijon v Vannes 5.40 0-0 -2.00
Laval v Angers 5.70 0-0 -2.00
Guingamp v Sedan 5.50 0-1 +8.55 :)
Bayern M v M'Gladbach 10.00 1-1 -2.00
AZ Alkmaar v Vitesse 9.00 1-0 -2.00
Roda v ADO Den Haag 4.90 1-0 -2.00
Albinoleffe v Lecce 3.55 0-2 +4.85 :)


4/14
Profit 9.36 :)


To Date
5/21
Profit 4.39 :)

[MattR]

Saturday

just listing away teams as short of time, remember these are HT odds


Burnley 5.30
Kaiserslautern 3.25
Empoli 5.10
Leverkusen 2.48
Bochum 7.20
Freiburg 6.60
Stoke 11.00
Hull 7.80
Birmingham 4.80
Bolton 4.20

[MattR]

No winners on Saturday for a loss of -20.

I completely forgot to post yesterday's and naturally they went well 3 winners from 8 with a 4.50/5.70 and a 7.80.

I'm going to include them even though I forgot to post them as this is only a test and it's my thread so there!

Yesterday's were
Udinese3.70 Parma5.20 Bari5.80 Cagliari4.50 Groningen5.70 Getafe5.40 Valencia3.05 Arsenal Sarandi7.80

With Groningen, Cagliari and Arsenal Sarandi winning at half time.


So the results for the weekend were

3/18
Pr/Lo -2.61

To Date

8/39
Profit 1.78


today's qualifiers to follow later

[MattR]

Today's

Inernat.C De Arges v CFR Cluj 2.10
G Furth v Aachen 4.60
Watford v QPR 3.75
Nantes v Arles 5.70
Vicenza v Piacenza 5.40

[scoobydoo]

I completely forgot to post yesterday's and naturally they went well 3 winners from 8 with a 4.50/5.70 and a 7.80.

I'm going to include them even though I forgot to post them as this is only a test and it's my thread so there!

Just you make sure phenomenon doesn't see that! :D

[mathare]

Just you make sure phenomenon doesn't see that! :D

I think Matt's safe - I seem to be phenomenon's favourite under-performing tipster so I don't think he bothers picking on anyone else

[MattR]

[Iron Chris]

Matt, looking at the results so far there have been a lot of games where the home team has not been in front at HT. If the markets are available on the exchanges and with the odds that you are using would laying the home team work out any better?

[MattR]

I thought the very same thing earlier Chris after another 4 draws and an away win from tonights selections. If I get chance I will check back on my records tomorrow to see how that works out. I have the games listed just need to check back on the half time scores that weren't away wins. I have 111 qualifiers for this now so enough to get some kind of gauge on it. Thanks

There may even be a case for a 0-0 ht score bet, but I'll see what the past results show. There has been 16 in this batch off 44 that are listed in this thread. At odds of about 3.00-4.00, mostly in the lower end, that suggests it would be showing a small profit (16*2) - 28 losses. I'll check that tomorrow too over the full 111 selections.

Tonights

Inernat.C De Arges v CFR Cluj 2.10 0-0
G Furth v Aachen 4.60 0-1
Watford v QPR 3.75 1-1
Nantes v Arles 5.70 0-0
Vicenza v Piacenza 5.40 0-0

1/5
-1.16


To Date
9/44
Profit 0.62

[MattR]

Using approximate home odds based on the away odds I have (I have compared those to some of today's games to get a general idea of where the home odds would be set to correspond) it looks promising for the ht home lay of these selections. So I shall start a separate thread for that for todays games once I've got the selections.

So far from 106 selections there have been just 30 home teams winning at half time. So as long as the average lay odds on those winners can come in under 3.50 then we can profit. To date the Away team odds of those 30 games where the home team has been ahead have been 5.70 which seems to correspond to about 2.70 for the home team.

The biggest danger is when the away team is the favourite (not often but there have been a few) the lay odds could be 10.00 in the very rare case. By my reckoning there would only have been 7 games where the home team would be over 5.00 to lay so that should be ok. The other option to counter getting hit by that would be to lay to a fixed liability.

[MattR]

Tuesday's HT Aways

Frosinone v Brescia 4.00
Reggina v Sassuolo 5.20
Ipswich v Peterboro 5.30
Leicester v Bristol C 5.30
Preston v Derby 5.00
WBA v Cardiff 5.50
Middlesboro v Blackpool 6.20
Reading v Crystal P 4.40

[MattR]

Well that went well!


Frosinone v Brescia 4.00 0-0
Reggina v Sassuolo 5.20 0-1 :)
Ipswich v Peterboro 5.30 0-0
Leicester v Bristol C 5.30 0-2 :)
Preston v Derby 5.00 0-0
WBA v Cardiff 5.50 0-1 :)
Middlesboro v Blackpool 6.20 0-2 :)
Reading v Crystal P 4.40 1-3 :)


Results
5/8
Profit 35.04

To Date
14/52
Profit 35.66 :)

[MattR]

Two today

Lille v St Etienne 7.60
River Plate v Racing 4.30

[MattR]

Both lost.

14/54
Profit 31.66


Monday

OFI v Thasivoulous Filis 6.50
Unirea U v Poli Iasi 10.00
Reggina v Triestina 5.40
WBA v QPR 6.20




WBA v QPR - talking of shortened team names reminds me of a game last week that I watched a bit of online as I had a bet on it. It was between Newells Old Boys and Arsenal Sarandi from the Argentinian League. Had to laugh at the screen where they had the score as we do here with abbreviated team names

NOB v ARS

[MattR]

0/4



14/58
Profit £23.66

Todays

Man Utd v Wolves 15.00
Bolton v West Ham 4.20
Valenciennes v Auxerre 4.80

[MattR]

Man Utd v Wolves 15.00 2-0
Bolton v West Ham 4.20 0-0
Valenciennes v Auxerre 4.80 0-0


0/3
-6.00


To date
14/61
Profit 17.66


Todays
Monaco v Rennes 3.75
Lyon v Boulogne 15.00
Liverpool v Wigan 10.50
Chelsea v Portsmouth 15.50