Kauto Star better than Desert Orchid?

[wb]

He is according to Timeform's provisional ratings following the King George.

I can't say I was old enough to appreciate Dessie all that much but I do remember quite a bit about him and everyone seemed to love him. I've since watched re-runs of his races and he was definitely something special.

Any of the older forum members got a view on this? Timeform ratings always seem to polarise opinion and I'm sure this will be the same!

[Win2Win]

Is he better? Yes, Kauto is much more the class horse, whereas Dessie had class and won a lot of races by grinding them out, and was not as versatile as Kauto.

[TheOldhamWhisper]

I don't think comparisons through ratings can ever be totally accurate as they are subjective. Dessie was a 'class act' based on the fact that he won plenty of big races and (probably more to do with the fact he was grey and loved to take them on from the front) soon became the people's favourite. But Dessie wasn't short of 'guts'. Not many frontrunners still have the bottle to fight back after giving 22lb to the likes of Panto Prince and Vodkatini and being deprived of the lead in the closing stages - but that was what Dessie was all about.

Kauto is undoubtedly quality and the manner of the Boxing Day victory was more spectacular than most but how good was the opposition? To put him in the same class, Kauto needs to consistently give a stone or more (and a good hiding!) to the likes of Denman. I think there is more to come from Kauto and he could go on to be one of the all-time greats.

[frontrunner]

I will always be Desert Orchid fan more than a Kauto Star fan. You can't fault the way KS won the other day but I personally didn't feel the same as when Desert Orchid used to run.

There are some races that you will never forget & the one where 'Dessie' won the gold cup at cheltenham is one I will always remember with great fondness (esp as he was written off by alot of people).

DOrchids frontrunning style would probably componsate for that 4lb difference in the ratings.


Frontrunner

[Win2Win]

I believe the preliminary OR is in the mid 190's

What people forget is training methods, feed, etc have changed since Dessie's days, hence course records continue to be broken, and I'd imagine Kauto turned out to be fitter at the end of the races.

[Godspot]

I'm inclined to think the opposition was weaker when Dessie won the Gold Cup - I'm surprised he ever won it at all considering it was his only Left handed win & the first time he'd beaten more than 5 runners in a chase.

Two of Dessie's King George's were with 6 runners or less & he only ever beat more than 10 runners twice, once the Gold Cup & the other, the Irish National - Kauto Star has just beaten more than 10 runners for the third time on Boxing Day & has an extra Gold Cup to his name & he's not finished yet, easily the better!

What I want to know - is if Denman is better than Kauto Star?

[Win2Win]

What I want to know - is if Denman is better than Kauto Star?

Denman still has plenty prove at the moment.

[eruptive plot]

What I want to know - is if Denman is better than Kauto Star?

ruby walsh will pick kauto star in the next gold cup as he did in the last

[TooTall]

ruby walsh will pick kauto star in the next gold cup as he did in the last

Does that mean Kauto is the best horse though. Has to be very hard to jump of a horse thats been that good to you. I think McCoy will be on Denman just got to hope both horse get there in top form now.

[wb]

Thanks lads for a good debate. I'm fairly convinced that Ruby will ride Kauto at this stage. He's one of the greatest Irish jockeys of the past twenty years or so.
Actually, I should take out the nationality out of it and state that he's one of the greatest in recent times, both UK and IRE.

McCoy is my favourite of all time but he's always the man to get the horse around the gaff tracks. Ruby is the man for the big day.
Regarding the Gold Cup, I was always a Denman man, but surely he's got to find about 10lbs this time if both run to form?

[Godspot]

I'll concede that Kauto is jumping better than he used to but he is not doing anything better on the clock than he did in the winter of 2007 according to the RP's Topspeed figures and I don't really understand why everyone is upping their ratings that much & it seems to me he is getting over-hyped just as Dessie did...

I thought Denman (& he's beaten more than 10 horses 4 times from less runs) proved in the Hennessy that he is back to his best when he recorded a personal best RP speed figure and he, like Master Minded though only once, again (08 Gold Cup first time) topped anything achieved by Kauto Star &, as things stand, he will be 7lb clear top speed figure & if he's a better price, that will will do for me.

It could just come down to the ground, Kauto if it's dry maybe, Denman if it's wet.

Something to look forward to anyway.

[wb]

Might be worth dutching the two at 1/2?

Don't think I could do it at this stage really.

Although it will be worth watching the likes of Cooldine etc in Ireland tomorrow just to see how the likely opposition compares.

[Godspot]

I was hoping Imperial Commander went for the Lexus, that would have given us a decent measure, as he is better Left handed - I heard that when Kauto failed to beat him convincingly in the Betfair, the odds on Denman shortened for the Gold Cup.

There was some serious money for that Cooldine (but he didn't strike me as Denman did when winning the RSA - I knew straight away then that that was next year's GC winner) today & I hope we can see something tomorrow.

Now that's got me thinking - I had a similar feeling about What A Friend behind Denman last time - he's going to be winning something....

But yeh, 1/2 the pair at this stage looks pretty safe to me....

[Win2Win]

.....he is not doing anything better on the clock than he did in the winter of 2007 according to the RP's Topspeed figures .....

Which just happen to be the most useless speed figures ever

[Godspot]

Which just happen to be the most useless speed figures ever

That doesn't make much sense to me Keith - I take it you mean 'useless' if you were to blindly back the highest speed figure in any given race?

You mean you haven't found a way to use them to good effect?

I use them to determine whether a horse is well handicapped or not or for an estimation of a probable rating.

I'm pretty sure from the said figures that Barbers Shop ran well (20lb) below his best in the King George, probably because he was not as fresh as he was behind Denman in the Hennessy. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see him out again until the Ryanair Chase, (now there's a bet!).

Masdison Du Berlais, again, around 15lb below best - I really don't see any reason to raise Kauto's rating at all.

So again, like Sea The Stars but the other way round, I'm at odds with the likes of Timeform & the official h'cappers, oh well.

Bit of a coincidence though that the two horses that finsished second to Denman in the Hennessy should win the two most valuable staying chases these last couple of days?

[Win2Win]

Makes sense to me, out of all the speed figures I've researched the RP ones have the biggest errors in them and statistically they are the worse across all race type, ages, etc, if you are looking for profit. They don't even make a reliable system filter.

[Godspot]

[QUOTE=Win2Win;519637]Makes sense to me, out of all the speed figures I've researched the RP ones have the biggest errors in them QUOTE]

Er' next time you think there's an error, just out of interest, plz do tell... as I have on my spreadsheet a whole catalogue of examples of what I originally thought was error but looking further into it, it is/was, usually me not understanding wtf they are doing or how they have changed something without telling anyone -

there's a good little example of where I'm coming from regards using the RP's speed figures and what looks like, could be, an 'error' running today in our Joint Venture race called Bishopsbrigg(USA) he has a row of duckeggs & ran 224 days ago & has no speed figure on the website racecard. I think the reason he has no speed figure is because from his row of duckeggs that were ran this season I think he never scored one high enough to warrant a mention, but whatever, on 30th Dec 08 he clocked a RP ts of 70 (& which adjusted for weight would give him a ts of 84 & put him 8pts clear of the next ts that they have on the card?) & today is running off a mark of 52 & that, according to my usage of the figures, makes him well h'capped - so you see my method has nothing to do (though it does happen sometimes) with who has the highest speed figure. He is also having his first run for a new yard (works better like u say for certain yards) which could also make him interesting ...

To be honest, I'm not happy with the way the RP represents its own figures & may if I get time this January continue a little relay of emails I've been having with one of the editors who did make a tiny adjustment/finally updated something that needed doing - he still didn't answer my original question though and I very much doubt, he sounded very busy (lol) if he or any of them are going to have time to hear my barrage of complaints or suggestions as to how they could improve things... Er', I had the same problem with the Sporting Life what must be about 18 years ago now, they didn't listen...

but anyway you have reminded me of a Great Revelation that was invested in me through reading the Racing Post Analysis which has lead me to drum up the ultimate winner finding system & I quote from Race No. 6283 won by Green Manalishi on Sept 26th 09

"Loads of familiar names in this cracking sprint and much depended on who was feeling their best on the day."

Gotta be whole lot easier than all this studying racetimes & figures etc, just back the horse that is feeling their best on the day! Sorted

But oh yeh, I did Yahoo EW as thought he more the mudlark!

[TheOldhamWhisper]

...just back the horse that is feeling their best on the day!

Don't knock it! This is one of the things in racing that looks like the pinstickers guide to success but does have some grounding in race stats. There are certain horses that seem to run to their best either early in the season or late in the season or even during certain months only!

There are systems (especially in US racing) based around horses coming back to the track for the second time after a layoff - the theory being that the horse will probably 'need the run' before returning to their best.

Valid reasons for withdrawing a horse from a race include not finishing their feed which could mean underlying problems.

So, next time you're at the track, look for the one with the biggest smile and you're on a winner :D

[Godspot]

[barrelmaniac]

He looks happy

[Godspot]

Ruby is the man for the big day.
Regarding the Gold Cup, I was always a Denman man, but surely he's got to find about 10lbs this time if both run to form?

It gets worse! The official handicapper has upped him 9lb to 195 putting him 13lb ahead of Denman, bizarre! And I can't remember the last time I saw a horse beaten 37l's getting raised 2lb as they have Barbers Shop?

Kauto consistently runs between 170-176 (& the best of them was at Haydock) on RP speed figs, as he did when 2nd to Denman in the GC, when winning the GC & again in his 3rd fastest KG on Boxing Day. If anyone has anything to find it is a justification for the above hike. Denman has clocked a 178 & a 180, when he ran 2nd in last years GC he clocked a below par 162, 16-18lb below his best to be precise - deduct the 13l's he was beaten last GC, that gives Kauto Star 3-5l's to find at Cheltenham in March.

If it's any consolation to Denman supporters - it is that the horse with the second highest official rating that has won the last two GC's.

I'm pretty sure Sam Thomas will ride Denman on GC day

This week's Weekender is well worth getting - they are now making comparisons to Arkle, all 3 of their experts reckon that around Kempton, Kauto (even while 21lb short on the figs, can't see it myself) would beat the 212 Timeform rated Arkle but that the latter would win at Cheltenham. Now there's a thing, Arkle carried 12-7 to victory in a Hennessy, twice! Can anyone think of any recent dual top weight carrying winners of the Hennessy?

[Win2Win]

It gets worse! The official handicapper has upped him 9lb to 195 putting him 13lb ahead of Denman, bizarre!

As I said the other day.

As for Arkle, based on what I said the other day about fitness and training methods, I'd be 100% confident KS would beat Arkle.

[Godspot]

At Kempton or Cheltenham or both? You'd be crossing swords with at least 3 out of 4 'so-called' experts if you say both. & what if it came up 'soft ground?

[Win2Win]

At Kempton or Cheltenham or both? You'd be crossing swords with at least 3 out of 4 'so-called' experts if you say both. & what if it came up 'soft ground?

Anywhere, any distance, any ground

I bet I make more money from gambling than 'so-called experts' :wink

[Godspot]

If that's the case, then Denman remains 'well handicapped,' & i think they should have put him in the National?

[Win2Win]

If that's the case, then Denman remains 'well handicapped,' & i think they should have put him in the National?

Well we've seen what the class horses can do to handicap fields when they run in them, and it should happen more often. It seemed to go out of vogue over the last 20-30 years.

My biggest bet in the 80's was £80 on Dessie..... the only time he fell However I cleaned up on him throughout his career, but not being a pro then I used it on women and drink, and wasted the rest

[Godspot]

If that's the case, then Denman remains 'well handicapped,' & i think they should have put him in the National?

To be honest not sure of the National bit as he fell at Aintree last year but I've just noticed that What A Friend has been bumped up to 165 on official ratings after his Lexus win - add the 22lb he was getting & the 4l's he was beat behind - Denman - gets a 191 unofficial estimate from me!

This could all bode well for the Hennessy's 3rd, Niche Market, in the National though!

[Win2Win]

The National is easy, just Dutch the first half of the field :D