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Thread: Jumping to conclusions

  1. #1

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    Jumping to conclusions

    Here, some of the Racing Post's top experts offer up the lessons they have learned from the past .. ..

    Tom Segal

    Pricewise


    BETTING on jumps racing is hard - too hard. That's the overriding impression that I will take from the season. If the ground is heavy, ability is of no consequence, and as soon as the ground gets more suitable, you have no idea which horses are going to bounce back to form - then jumping becomes the issue, and we all know that any horse can make mistakes on any given day.

    The key is to make things easier for yourself and cut out the bad bets, and that means sticking to horses in form and not following horses over a cliff, like I did with Asian Maze and, to a lesser extent, Newmill. It also means resisting the urge to back anything trained by David Pipe in the ante-post markets - unless you're prepared for the very real possibility of them not turning up for the race.

    It's all about Cheltenham really, and every year it strikes me that we should all be taking advantage of the non-runner, no bet rule and backing horses at big prices in the fortnight or so before the festival. Exciting as it can be, you need masses of luck to win any race that week, and after the first I'm always struck with the feeling that I could easily do my brains over the following four days.

    As for punting systems to remember for next season, I'm going to make a note of all Ferdy Murphy's chasers when the ground is good and the sun has come out, and I'm slowly turning into a massive fan of both Alan King and 'Chocolate' Thornton.

    Overall, I think the one word that should be at the forefront of my mind in the coming years is preparation. Forget the ground, weight and all those factors that are analysed to death before any big race - the truth of the matter is that if your horse has had things go wrong, the chance of it repeating its best is virtually zero. Jump racing has never been more competitive, and horses like Hedgehunter in the National don't have the zip to compete if things have gone wrong in their preparation.


    Dave Edwards

    Topspeed


    WITHOUT doubt the going is the most important factor determining the performance of a horse on a given day, and with the core of the last jumping season staged on testing, bottomless ground, serious wagers were few and far between. Some, such as Nickname, revel in such conditions, but far more disappoint.

    Throw in the fact that at several tracks, race-times, race distances and official going descriptions make uncomfortable bedfellows, and it's clear that misinformation is plentiful.

    There can be no argument that safety of both man and beast has to be the top priority, and as such, clerks have a duty to provide the best ground available. But the almost cavalier attitude to the accuracy and reliability of race distance, and the fact that many going descriptions have to be taken with a liberal helping of salt, has given me a steely resolve to hold fire with the punting if I can't assign 100 per cent reliability to a race time or going description. Drastic action you may think, but 'previous' makes it prudent and sensible in my book.

    Admittedly this is an old hobby-horse of mine, but in this day and age there is no reason why both safe ground and accurate distances cannot be provided.

    Having got that off my chest, the time-biased highlight of the season was My Way De Solzen's sensational performance in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March. Just as important, but from a different angle, is the avoidance of hyped performers who achieve relatively little on the stopwatch. Black Jack Ketchum is an obvious high-profile example, but the form book is littered with them. Some scribes fall into the 'spin' trap, but this can be turned to the discerning punter's advantage.

    The ploy of running novice chasers in handicaps off their hurdle ratings is always worth noting, but last season the tactic was reversed, as illustrated by, among others, Copsale Lad at Newbury in February. Running off an 18lb lower mark than his chase rating, Nicky Henderson's ten-year-old obliged at 14-1. My mantra remains: keep an eye on the clock.


    PLEASE SHARE ALL OUR CONCLUSIONS IN THIS THREAD .. ..



  2. #2

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    Dear Mr Edwards...

    I quite enjoyed reading that this morning (thanks for posting Gobro) but by this afternoon, what a pile of contradictory doggy do-do it turned out to be!

    You're goddam SACKED!!

    The Official Going Description for

    THURLES (IRE) - yesterday

    GOING: Hurdle course - YIELDING; Chase course - SOFT.

    Like I said on another thread yesterday & here is a fine case in point - the race times quite clearly show that the hurdle course was riding faster, just like the going description says - so why the hell have you used one going allowance for all & produced a completely warped set of figures?

    Not for the first time recently, you've been caught napping & you're as much to blame for the misinformation that you accuse others of, so, without further ado:

    YOU'RE FIRED!!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  3. #3

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    All My Speed Based Conclusions is Topspeed based .. .. LOL



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