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Thread: speed figs

  1. #31

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    H'mm, two runners tonight:

    7.45 Donc
    Admire The View, upped 10lb for last x

    7.55 Epsom
    Hear The Roar, gets in the h'cap on a mark 10lb lower than I rated him as...

    Both 3yo's taking on their elders but they're having a good year, of the two I'd rather be on the latter but no doubt I'll get it wrong & probably best to do them both



  2. #32

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    1 from 2 on the above but I think it was 3 losers yesterday...

    Today's going to be busy though & I just know we're going to be getting some juicy figures from Ascot at least..

    Man Of Action's in the first & I don't like it when Tommo from C4 tips them up, they usually come 2nd & I think this his hardest test to date & a bit short anyway...

    There is another, Rule Breaker, in that race too (with M Johnston who had 6 horses entered for the race) who I gave a hefty rating to a couple of runs back & it could be worth doing him EW instead.

    Best Bet so far - & I think that's the title of my new thread -tis coming, to be sure but I like Present Alchemy in the 4.40



  3. #33

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    I think yesterday put paid to any such ideas of following them blind - there was about 5 losers yesterday but only a couple of real disappointments, that Present Alchemy for one & Raleigh Quay another but

    To be honest, this whole project is taxing my little brain somewhat - trying to keep up with the Racing Post updating their standards is becoming a chore but sometimes, like York on Friday, all I seem to be finding, is discrepancy after discrepancy and I'm losing serious time trying to work out their workings. Better to wait until I have enough races on the spreadsheet to work out my own standard times & decide on my own going allowances & corrections....

    It's madness really, this is something that I don't need to be doing but for my own enjoyment

    It seems easy enough to note a fast time but to put a quantifiable mark/measure on it - that's going to keep me busy for another year or so

    So what I have decided is to ditch this thread & post my monthly notes as a blog.

    Right! Back to work....



  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    I think yesterday put paid to any such ideas of following them blind - there was about 5 losers yesterday but only a couple of real disappointments..
    Nope... Too soon to make any rash decisions.... After, Perfect Blossom 5/4 Weds, Scamperdale 12/1 Thurs & Comedy Act 4/1 yesterday - there's been a steady flow of winners from that bulk list....

    I is just wondering if Temple Meads can carry on the good work in the Super Sprint 3.20 Newbury today....

    Don't really like 25 runner non-h'caps, smth like Kojak ew more my kind of bet in that kind of race.



  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    I think we'll be hearing a bit more of Dunboyne Express but that wont be in a h'cap!
    6/1 in a 4-runner Gr3, 2.35 @ the Curragh today, against an un-raced favourite, I've had a couple of quid on so no doubt the favourite will win

    Going to have to be good this, Glor Na Mara(Ire) to beat our fellow & Samuel Morse, I wonder what his odds are for the 2,000 Guineas?



  6. #36

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    Well I'm glad Applaude won 6/4f fav too - I was going to de-list him after disappointing the last twice. So that's 2/2 today, 1 from 2 yesterday...



  7. #37

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    check out OR (official rating ) and Racing Post Topspeed fig. .. .. The topspeed rating must higher at least 14 fig. .. later on check out draw bias and running style of horse ..



  8. #38

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    Quote Originally Posted by gobro View Post
    check out OR (official rating ) and Racing Post Topspeed fig. .. .. The topspeed rating must higher at least 14 fig. .. later on check out draw bias and running style of horse ..
    Er... you sound right on my wavelength - sounds very similar to my little method using the RP but

    You've been posting some interesting stuff & there is a little book of a reply coming but

    Now that I've finished gutting my grans house, I can get back to the figures & I'm way behind, hence not posted much of late but doing good & will be back but work, work back to it....



  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by gobro View Post
    check out OR (official rating ) and Racing Post Topspeed fig. .. .. The topspeed rating must higher at least 14 fig. .. later on check out draw bias and running style of horse ..
    So would Carnac in the next 1.40 @ S-aw be a qualifier on that method? Just as an example like....



  10. #40

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    Southwell 1.40
    1st 6 Stanley Rigby 8-1
    2nd 4 Carnac (IRE) 3-1
    3rd 7 Tivers Song (USA) 9-1
    Tote Win £6.60
    Pl £2.40, £2.10, £4.20
    EX £41.60
    SF £31.71
    Tricast £221.41
    Winning Trainer R A Fahey
    Winning Jockey B McHugh
    Distances 2 1/2l, sh
    Unpl. Fav Miereveld 9-4 fav
    Runners 9 ran



  11. #41

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    date Position Wt BHA Course Dist Draw Going Class Opened SP
    03 Jan 11 2/9 8-12 p 48 southwell 11f 7 std 6 4/1 3/1
    21 Dec 10 3/12 9-4 p 50 Sou 12f 7 Std/Slow 6 12/1 12/1



  12. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by gobro View Post
    Southwell 1.40
    1st 6 Stanley Rigby 8-1
    2nd 4 Carnac (IRE) 3-1
    3rd 7 Tivers Song (USA) 9-1
    Tote Win £6.60
    Pl £2.40, £2.10, £4.20
    EX £41.60
    SF £31.71
    Tricast £221.41
    Winning Trainer R A Fahey
    Winning Jockey B McHugh
    Distances 2 1/2l, sh
    Unpl. Fav Miereveld 9-4 fav
    Runners 9 ran
    I may have over done it a bit but I just gave the winner (making fibresand debut) who rated only 45 - a girt 63 & the second, Carnac, a personal best too of 62, rated 48 - even after the h'capper's had his say, these two should still remain on winning marks. They both too, have good sires for fibresand.

    I know on your Henry Rix thread it says avoid Southwell but I quite like it, it's a good place for course specialists & these two are just starting out.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  13. #43

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    As I told, agree and disagree wellcome .. ..

    a loser is the next step before a big price winner.



  14. #44

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    So would Carnac in the next 1.40 @ S-aw be a qualifier on that method? Just as an example like....
    @Godspot,
    Please post shortlisted horse here daily, ( if any )



  15. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by gobro View Post
    @Godspot,
    Please post shortlisted horse here daily, ( if any )
    If you don't mind Gobro - to save cross-posting, I have another thread called the GS Top-Rated, which is an extension of this, where - when I mention, like today, Figaro Flyer in the first at Southwell, 'the best q on old method,' that is the best horse in the race that qualifies as being OR = to or at least 5lb lower than best RP Topspeed figure achieved over today's course & distance (& hopefully, within the last two years) & I only mention it when there is a 'stand-out' qualifier.

    Hope that makes sense.

    I say 'old method' because the more I do my own figures I have realised that I can be more accurate than the RP - there have been numerous occasions when it is quite obvious that there should be at least two Going Allowances for a meeting but they more often than not use one.

    I keep note of qualifiers from the old method as I have only been doing my own figs since around April last, although I have gone back & done some Major meets like Cheltenham etc, it will often happen that some old rag that was clocking decent figs a while back will turn up & trump my recently rated horses - I probably wont be fully comfortable for another year or so yet



  16. #46

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    in fact, speed is not ultra angel for me .. .. as you know, we don't need any system .. .. we need right methods .. .. i am watching race and i create "horsesw to follow" list .. .. i try catch the promising unexposed horse .. .. my ultra angel is pace and draw bias .. .. so, i am not system crator .. .. i am methodmaker .. .. if some people give me their ultra angels, i can create method for them .. .. personally, i like share all my knowlidge .. .. i was giving tip on this forum for beat the bookies 5-6 years ago .. .. but, i don't give any tip anymore .. .. i only give right method anymore .. ..

    Ps: i can speak a little english .. .. sorry, if any mistake .. .. i am Turkish Cypriot .. ..



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