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Thread: speed figs

  1. #1

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    speed figs

    Do any members use race times and speed figs to good effect,i have done a lot of looking over the years, but this is an area that i still cannot get my head round.



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    I use to use the later fractions but i wouldn't know where you would get thyem from nowadays

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    I use to use the later fractions but i wouldn't know where you would get thyem from nowadays
    Do you mean sectional times from the latter part of a race ?



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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Do any members use race times and speed figs to good effect,i have done a lot of looking over the years, but this is an area that i still cannot get my head round.
    You're not the only one Mick - if one horse can run a faster time than another over the same CD 4 times & come out worse on the figures -

    then it's all tits up meaningless IMHO

    see Sea The Stars thread.



  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    You're not the only one Mick - if one horse can run a faster time than another over the same CD 4 times & come out worse on the figures -

    then it's all tits up meaningless IMHO

    see Sea The Stars thread.
    Yes i read your post see the stars and enjoyed it,i no its off topic but i would like to see you make up a hcap for the horses you mention.I do not bet in group or classic races, but i love watching them,and some of the horses mentioned brought back some great memories,my birthday jun 5th and for the past 36yrs i have gone to the Epsom derby.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    I use to use the later fractions but i wouldn't know where you would get thyem from nowadays
    Yes only for 8f plus essentially last 25% of race so last 2 furlongs over 8f, 3 over 12f etc.

    useful in the main for comparing the quality of maidens against better races on the same card.

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


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    [QUOTE=Godspot;521307 'll come back to this thread Mick, as I have a little story to impart but looks like we're business as usual tomorrow so I is busy busy...QUOTE]

    Look forward to your story but certainly understand your priorities.



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    speed figs

    Godspot RI your above post,what a great weight carrying performance fto by Kalahari king yesterday i did not have a financial interest in the race,but was very impressed by the way he got the job done.

    Was interested to read your experiment of converting Mr nordins SF to your own hcap figs.i have done something simular for years using the recent and master figs of a commercially available private handicap but with my own adjustment which favours those towards the top of the hcap,This means that often my top rated at the weights is different to thier own,which as far as i am concerned is all to the good as assuming there weight adjusted ratings have a public following this counters any reduction of long term value.

    I hope you will keep us updated with your progress and the best of luck to you in this investigation.



  11. #11

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    [quote=Godspot;523511Nick Mordin (he seems to have upgraded his methods of late, takes all things like moving of rails, like Keith keeps moaning about, into account & does a lot of sectional timing for nearly all the best meets). ….[/quote]
    I love Nick now :)

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    Now itching to see what Mordin, or if he covers the race, makes of Carlito Brigante's run yesterday as my provisional estimate [147] based on Eradicate's 129 OR (having run the same CD a full 2 seconds faster & carrying more weight) puts him on a par with his best so far for the season of his generation, Advisor, for the Triumph.

    Another horse NM has the hots for is Tidal Bay - this is what he says of his last run:

    "So I must put Tidal Bay on 42[/168]. As I've said, that's better than Big Bucks. In fact it's right up there with the very best three mile hurdlers of the last fifteen years. I've not given a three mile hurdler a bigger rating in that period, not even Baracouda or Inglis Drever."



  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    I love Nick now :)
    All that says to me is that you'll be calling for an independent investigation into 911 in a few years ahead too....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  14. #14

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    I have read that some backers use SF to good effect when applied to jumping,but i would imagine that most consider them more useful on the flat.So i would like to try and get this thread going again,by asking members to comment on thier use of SF successful or otherwise.



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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    I have read that some backers use SF to good effect when applied to jumping,but i would imagine that most consider them more useful on the flat.So i would like to try and get this thread going again,by asking members to comment on thier use of SF successful or otherwise.
    Watch out for Instabella!! A Hobbs' stablemate of his livewire Captain Chris - she earned a possible 130+ from me when she made her debut on the same card as his last race, he has to be rated in excess of 150 & from race times & weight carried etc, she is within 20lb of him but

    I've been having a bit of a rough time of it financially of late - to the point of even being offline for a month or so - this lead me to getting around to something I perhaps should have done as soon as I got back into the gg's - I resurrected The Time Machine. I have corrected, or tidied up all the formulae & I'm seriously happy with it.

    By R Ascot of this year I will have a whole years worth of results on another spreedsheet & I am now combining the two so that pretty soon, I will be working out two sets of figs for each meeting, ie. a comparison to last years' as well as the present seasons -

    Me & the figures is always 'a work in progress' & over the next year or so I aim to just keep perfecting to make them as accurate as I can - that Carlito Brigante (above) was a great leap forward but it was the horse who ran 3rd to him that day that proved its worth when winning at Aintree @ 40/1. I'm still convinced the 4th home, Melange, is well h'capped but here are some more recent finds:

    Temple Meads - one you might get a price about against a Hannon horse.
    Strong Suit - me thinks is 9lb or more of his RPR.
    Berling - a h'cap good ting! (& nice to see trainer doing so well this year!)
    Tactic - cracking run last time!

    One of them has got to win at R Ascot at 4/1 or more me thinks, easy!

    & yesterdays highlights:

    Obviously Stotsfold @ Sandown but more yer bread & butter: Knar Mardy ran a corker @ Wetherby & if the h'capper doesn't over-react, gotta be on course for a h'cap anytime soon & over on the AW - Alex Ferguson's, If I Had Him, ran a blinder & is worth a lot more than his lowly 56 OR

    To be continued....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  16. #16

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    speed figs

    HI GS good to see you posting again ,certainly some food for though in your above.



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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    HI GS good to see you posting again ,certainly some food for though in your above.
    Hi Mick - one thing I been meaning to ask you, you know you don't like betting 3yo's against older horses on the flat? I don't like h'cap hurdles much anyway but was wondering if you had the same kind of thing with 4yo hurdlers running against their elders - that's one area I seriously can't seem to get a measure, even though some win, there doesn't seem to be any signs from their figures to suggest that they are good things. Working on it though.... Mind you, more on the flat at present - that'll get left on the back burner for a while....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Hi Mick - one thing I been meaning to ask you, you know you don't like betting 3yo's against older horses on the flat? I don't like h'cap hurdles much anyway but was wondering if you had the same kind of thing with 4yo hurdlers running against their elders - that's one area I seriously can't seem to get a measure, even though some win, there doesn't seem to be any signs from their figures to suggest that they are good things. Working on it though.... Mind you, more on the flat at present - that'll get left on the back burner for a while....
    Yes mate spot on if a 4yo comes out top on my analise of a hcap hurdle its a no bet race for me.I no its never wise to generalise but for my own confidence this has proved best,likewise with older hcap hurdlers,this is not set in stone but i feel most comfortable backing 5 and 6yo in these races,and swerving the.>7yo+

    Likewise with chase prefer 7 and 8yo and flat 4 and 5yo.



  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post

    Likewise with chase prefer 7 and 8yo and flat 4 and 5yo.

    Me Mick, I not too bothered about the age of my chasers, horses often come back for a second wind through their careers -

    Well, Prof William Quirin – who developed a unique brand of pace ratings in America - may well have drawn laughs from a seminar audience when asked what he did with his ratings once he’d worked them out as he replied: ‘I look at them,’ & old mucker Mordin may well suggest that we do the same but but….

    How much time do they think we’ve got? Have they seen how much racing there is these days? Mind you, I do find myself gazing at the results in total fascination sometimes.

    If anything this a good exercise in forcing one to make a decision & move one…

    I am so far using two sets of standards, the RP’s (not sure whether they update regular but they have been lately) & Nick Mordins (totally need updating) and (one thing I’m finding at virtually every course are gross irregularities) and a variant on Mordins method to determine a figure. NM’s standards are very close to the course record if not faster & the RP’s usually a few seconds slower – I suppose I should make that three sets of standards as for the likes of Ffos Las, where NM & the RP at present, have none, I will be using Nick Mordins – Table of Universal Standard Times so that in due course I will gradually work out my own, as I will for each course in due course but…

    And then there’s the Going Allowance to consider – I just get the hang of it & then Saturday’s rain turns up to change the going throughout the day at the best meetings Haydock & Newmarket to confuse the issue ? ?

    Action from this last weekend:


    Horse Date Pro-Rate Notes

    Alldunnandusted 29/5/2010 ? Ran similar x & carried similar wght as 140 OR King Troy but rated 109, more likely to win again? ?

    Amjan(Ire) 1/6/2010 118+ Easily x of the meet at Ffos Las & cld be 20lb better than the provisional rating of 118 that I gave U B Careful, early days yet but I’l l be interested to see what the RPR give for these races!

    Berling Royal Ascot h’cap?

    Channel Crossing 31/5/2010 ? Ran X of the meet at Leicester & on a par with horses rated vastly superior, dual CD & dual 8 6 & rated 75 OR Sept 08

    Charminamix(Ire) 30/5/2010 100+e Ran x of the meet in a h’cap when 2 pattern races on card, hard to fathom, estimated rating ? ?

    Collect Art 1/6/2010 65+e One thing I’m learning pretty fast, see Shulmin below, the higher figures achieved with the lowest OR’s are the ones to be interested in & this would be todays qualifier as can be rated only a few lb under Piazza San Pietro who at present is rated a stone higher – not finished winning yet me thinks!

    Double Double(Fr) 30/5/2010 130? Early days but ran a cracker & with a hot trainer but will have to give a mention to Divine Rhapsody(Ire) & Spanish Treasure(Ger) who both bettered time before @ Punchestown, some hot young bumpers in Ireland me thinks?

    Dusty Dane 28/5/2010 Bettered a 25 year-old crse record at Stratford & not far behind Pilgrims Lane [117+ OR] on the figures.

    If I Had Him 27/5/2010 ? ran a blinder & is worth a lot more than his lowly 56 OR

    Instabella Pre May 2010 130+e Should prove to be within 20lb of 150+ rated stable-mate Captain Chris.

    Knar Mardy 27/5/2010 94+ ran a corker @ Wetherby & if the h'capper doesn't over-react, gotta be on course for a h'cap anytime soon - (h’capper went beserk & upped 17lb but came out & won a (S) 11/4 same track few days later. Don’t know about the h’cap now, have to investigate, didn’t earn much of a figure from the RP though.)

    Man Of Action 30/5/2010 100p Ran comparable x to Monterosso & Noverre to go (both 90+), only 2nd start & seasonal bow, will he take a h’cap on crse to better things?

    Rockabilly Rebel 30/5/2010 84 Ran 3/5th’s better than 78 Fly Silca, rated 65, the more likely of the 2 to win again?

    Shulmin 29/5/2010 Ran x of the meet & earned highest figure but lowest rated, once rated 90 & shld have another h’cap in her ? Followed up off’ve 78 from out of the h’cap on Monday, 4/1j

    Strong Suit 105+e Royal Ascot material & around 9lb better than RPR

    Stumped 30/5/2010 ? Ran a fair x 2l’s behind Soliya (110+) & once rated 130 has won summer before & not finished this year yet ? ?

    Tactic Royal Ascot material

    Temple Meads Royal Ascot material or something to get a price about against a Hannon hotpot ?


    Sorry, this hasn't copied too well, try smth different next time...

    Hey Mick, what papers do you use?

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Hey Mick, what papers do you use?
    Hi GS,i do not use any,i have never considered the daily papers much use,and after the closure of the Sporting Life,used the Racing Post via necessity and i am not a fan.

    For the past 30yrs the most important product for me was the official Form book published by Race Form,Last Mar i started subscribing to thier computerised version and i feel this is money well spent.



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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi GS,i do not use any,i have never considered the daily papers much use,and after the closure of the Sporting Life,used the Racing Post via necessity and i am not a fan.

    For the past 30yrs the most important product for me was the official Form book published by Race Form,Last Mar i started subscribing to thier computerised version and i feel this is money well spent.
    Sorry for delay Mick, been working my guts out bringing the spreadsheet ready for an all-out assault after R Ascot when I'll have a whole years results, can't wait, maybe I'll have a spare minute or two after that but

    I only asked as I’m right into the the Daily Star of all things these days but I am sat as usual virtually surrounded by paper but anyway, I don’t think there is a better paper out there that so easily identifies so many things like headgear first time or like CD3, which is more useful than just CD I find especially at specialist course & distances

    Do you not use the Weekender or Raceform Update or anything?

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  22. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    use the Weekender or Raceform Update or anything?
    Hi GS regarding SF i do not have faith or confidence in any and do not use them.

    RE the above and other publications no i do not read them,every thing i need is contained within the RI data base.

    And regretfully its been a long time since i have read anything original or thought provoking concerning form or betting from a racing journalist so these days tend not to bother.



  23. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi GS regarding SF i do not have faith or confidence in any and do not use them.

    RE the above and other publications no i do not read them,every thing i need is contained within the RI data base.

    And regretfully its been a long time since i have read anything original or thought provoking concerning form or betting from a racing journalist so these days tend not to bother.
    I tend to agree about the SF & that's why I'm doing what I'm doing with the spreadsheet - while I'm quite happy with what I've got going using the RP's, I can tell from just today's results that figures from some courses are more reliable than others.

    I been getting the Weekender for donkeys now & while I hardly read anything other than the results section, I do like to take on board any opinions but

    Last week N Mordin used some speed figures from Raceform Interactive for his regular system column & from what I can work out they are not compatible with what I have in mind, they work on a different scale, safe to say I won't be needing them, even when I can afford it

    From today's action, I think Requisite will be winning again & Uncle Keef too. From Ireland, I think we'll be hearing a bit more of Dunboyne Express but that wont be in a h'cap!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    Me & the figures is always 'a work in progress' & over the next year or so I aim to just keep perfecting to make them as accurate as I can - that Carlito Brigante (above) was a great leap forward but it was the horse who ran 3rd to him that day that proved its worth when winning at Aintree @ 40/1.

    Temple Meads - one you might get a price about against a Hannon horse.
    Strong Suit - me thinks is 9lb or more of his RPR.
    Berling - a h'cap good ting! (& nice to see trainer doing so well this year!)
    Tactic - cracking run last time!

    One of them has got to win at R Ascot at 4/1 or more me thinks, easy!

    To be continued....
    Oh, Musselbrough again and another great leap forward!

    I got a feeling, we could be doing better than that, early days yet & no doubt I’ll be wrong or mistaken but anyway, smth happened on the way to the payout counter….

    Well, smth happened a couple of Saturdays ago that spun my head & made me realise that of course I was going to have to incorporate adjustments for weight into the spreadsheet – ol’ Mucker Mord’s might like to ‘keep it simple’ but but

    Did you see that, Harris Tweed, at Musselbrough? Well he shone out on my selection process & I thought he was one to be interested in but well – he only went & broke the course record, great stuff but what transpired later on the card was giving me a headache on the spreadsheet. Some flying little mare called Just Lille, she ran the same CD only 2/5ths of a second slower than Mr Tweed & at the end of the spreadsheet came out with very similar figures as him but but he only carried 8 3 whereas she had lumped 9 10 around. Seems pretty obvious to me that she had run the better race but you wouldn’t have thought from the spreadsheet so I went off in search of some answers & lo & behold I found them all on this site,

    http://www.win2win.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=65478

    a****mazing!

    & in future, or as from today that ol’ burdonsome weight for age ting is all becoming crystal!

    God, I enjoyed that race! Shame, the same can’t be said for the people who were playing pool (silly game anyway but) at the time who had to endure me jumping over the table, splashing beer everywhere & screaming ‘YES’ at the tele but then trying to stay calm as his horse gets up to win by a nostril was never ones strong suit, ask Lammtarra, he knows all about that!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  25. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    [B]

    Man Of Action 30/5/2010 100p Ran comparable x to Monterosso & Noverre to go (both 90+), only 2nd start & seasonal bow, will he take a h’cap on crse to better things?
    Tink we're about to find out! Gets in on 88, up against his elders but I said before somewhere this is a useful 3yo crop, bit concerned about Big Noise but surely, better than that, interesting.....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    I got Rockabilly Rebel running 2.10 NewmJ noted above but not too confident about beating J Noseda's Illustrious Prince - looks a little step up in class too far to me.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  27. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi GS regarding SF i do not have faith or confidence in any and do not use them.
    H'mm, I was going to write a little book about how everything I am doing (& I suppose it still does) at present revolves around the Racing Posts speed figures but just lately - that Micky P won, he was under-estimated by them, think I was right too about Strong Suit, they have now got him as what I rated from his debut but today, that Ajman (listed above) did it again at Hereford - ran the time of the meet. It's not over yet for him!

    Shame, I didn't even notice he was running - after having a bit of a day off trying to make sense of incorporating the weight-for-age scale into my spreadsheet during Ascot. I'm thinking it is going to be interesting when I do the same for the Stix/NH version as I have never been able to get a grip on the Racing Post's figs for hurdlers, things are set to change somewhat!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  28. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    From today's action, I think Requisite will be winning again &
    She did as well, 2nd time of asking & is running again today @ Kempton in the last 9.20 but she hasn't won from a rating this high before, she has a good draw & might just do it, seems to be career peaking but represents no value at the forecast odds of <7/4, I'd rather do Lethal EW

    See also Knar Mardy is running too at Worcester - have to admit that was a mistake including her as RP revised her time down so it was pretty much a fluke that she won last time & I don't know what to make of it now.

    There will be, waiting until tonight, a monthly review - update kind of thing coming shortly - can't work fast enough but things is looking pretty good so far, ya!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    & yesterdays highlights:

    Obviously Stotsfold @ Sandown but more yer bread & butter & over on the AW - Alex Ferguson's, If I Had Him, ran a blinder & is worth a lot more than his lowly 56 OR (2nd's won since)

    To be continued....
    Dunno whether that was the longest 36 days or the shortest but we seem to be right back where we started, as Stotsfold does it again! That was a hot little Listed race yesterday, he ran a time only 1 1/2 secs slower than Sea The Stars last year but carried more weight, I'll be making comparisons within the next 24 hours as the Eclipse comes round again. Ya!

    I haven't got time to do all the editing, so I'm just going to plonk June's additions below. Had a good day yesterday with Favourite Girl & Sparkling Smile to say the least and one thing I'm noticing is that we have to watch out for quick reappearances in h'caps but there is an interesting blend of all classes & codes here:

    Horse
    Admirable Spirit
    Admire The View(Ire)
    Ajman(Ire)
    Alldunnandusted
    Applaude
    Berling
    Bonnie Brae
    Brushing
    Buzz Bird
    Channel Crossing
    Charminamix(Ire)
    Collect Art
    Cornus
    Crocodile Bay
    Crofton Arch
    Cross Key
    Deauville Flyer
    Double Double(Fr)
    Dreamy Gent
    Dunboyne Express
    Dusty Dane
    Favourite Girl
    Fealing Real
    Gritstone
    Hear The Roar
    If I Had Him
    Instabella
    Invisible Man
    Jaaryah(Ire)
    Jeannie Galloway
    Johny Mudball
    Just Lille
    Laddies Poker Two
    Laughing Boy(Ire)
    Lucky Flyer
    Mac’s Power
    Major Phil
    Mambo Spirit
    Man Of Action
    Miss Keck
    Ninth House
    Papradon
    Perfect Blossom
    Present Alchemy
    Raleigh Quay
    Reel Buddy Star
    Rockabilly Rebel
    Scamperdale
    Shulmin
    Sparkling Smile
    Strong Suit
    Stumped
    Tactic
    Temple Meads
    Touch Of Style
    William Butler
    Workforce
    Yankee Storm
    You’ve Been Mowed
    Zaidan

    I'll edit in some results or comments later.....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  30. #30

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    Not bad, three winners from 5 runners today & I couldn't fancy one of them, Just Lille, running 1/2 mile back in trip, Crocodile Bay 13/2, Perfect Blossom 11/4f and if Cornus carries on winning once a week @ 9/1, that would just about make us profitable following blind, h'mmm...



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