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Thread: opinions sought

  1. #1

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    opinions sought

    My only possible bet to day is in the last at kemp Lisahane Bog,and although i have built a good case for backing the horse it appears according to the market at time of posting to be a minority opinion although only 4 run it is a fascinating race and i wonder if any other members had formed an opinion on the out come.



  2. #2

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    I'm just looking at the 1:10

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  3. #3

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    Forget the market, go with your own conclusions, unless it really drifts alarmingly.

    It is not the cards you are dealt but what you do with them that counts


  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by tophatter View Post
    Forget the market, go with your own conclusions, unless it really drifts alarmingly.
    Then put more on it :wink

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  5. #5

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    Quote Originally Posted by tophatter View Post
    Forget the market, go with your own conclusions, unless it really drifts alarmingly.
    Agree with you people frequently view a drift in price as a negative but i have lost count of the number of times this has occurred for horses i have backed but they have still won.My real reason for putting up the kemp 7.40 was a genuine interest in other members thoughts on this little race.

    But going back to your advice what i have found although i do not let it effect me is that as over the years the level stake i deploy each year has gradually increased i find the mental effort of sometimes disagreeing with the market harder to bear.

    I will try to explain i work almost a day in advance and of course subject to over night changes in the weather and NR i normally have a good idea the evening before of what my bet might be the next day

    Lets say as a hypothetical example that my stake is £300 if the on the morning of race your sel is fc 2/1 fav and is reciving lots of positive media comments then with a decent amount of working capital it does not take a High amount of conviction to place a £300 bet however if your choice is fc 12/1 with no positive comment then the decision to risk that £300 appears more difficult,as stated this is something which i ignore but the thoughts are there never the less,i suspect there will be some members who reading this would offer the well meant advise to reduce stakes under these cicumstances but that approach is not for me

    I should point out that i am not complaining about the above but just remark on it out of interest with regards my first post on this thread.and tophatters good advice.



  6. #6

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    Thats why i much prefer system betting in that it takes those factors out. If my stake is £300 and the horse is 100/1 I still put £300 on it.

    I would neve ever put £300 on a 100/1 shot based on a method selection.

    Im a coward when betting on my own method bets. Ive alwatys been a big stake little odds man or vice versa.

    It is not the cards you are dealt but what you do with them that counts


  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by tophatter View Post
    Thats why i much prefer system betting in that it takes those factors out. If my stake is £300 and the horse is 100/1 I still put £300 on it.

    I would neve ever put £300 on a 100/1 shot based on a method selection.

    Im a coward when betting on my own method bets. Ive alwatys been a big stake little odds man or vice versa.
    Envy you tops but much as i would like to and have tried i cannot bring myself to go the pure systems route



  8. #8

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    I wouldn't expect the small field to suit Lisahane Bog with best form coming from being held up in reasonable field sizes which usuall equate to an honest pace.

    The johnston horse will probably get things his own way and dictate the pace. If there were more runners i'd like the look of your bet mick but the question over pace would be enough to put me off but 5/1 is quite big if you belive the way the race will be run is of no detrement to your selections chance. good luck

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    I wouldn't expect the small field to suit Lisahane Bog with best form coming from being held up in reasonable field sizes which usuall equate to an honest pace.

    The johnston horse will probably get things his own way and dictate the pace. If there were more runners i'd like the look of your bet mick but the question over pace would be enough to put me off but 5/1 is quite big if you belive the way the race will be run is of no detrement to your selections chance. good luck
    I belive the way race may be run will be decisive but i am hoping connections have reached a simular view as yourself and try to overcome this by being more up with the pace than in previouse wins but that is nearly always a consideration in these small field races dont you find. thanks for your good wishes.



  10. #10

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    I see where you are coming from mick, it does look like good value to me, I am not a method better but I keep a tiny separate account for the odd method punt for the odd bit of fun, I call it my lottery horse account- im tempted to stick a minimum stake on it myself, it has many wins under its belt but all of a small margin, the favorite killed the opposition last time, but as we all know horses cant always replicate it time and time again (unless they are extremely special)



  11. #11

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    odds are falling fairly sharply now, I will wait and see as obviously value is falling at the moment



  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    .....i am hoping connections have reached a simular view.....
    Surmising what others are thinking costs money in gambling, work on facts only.

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  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Win2Win View Post
    Surmising what others are thinking costs money in gambling, work on facts only.
    with respect facts plus opinion is more to my liking, we all seek success in our own particular way.



  14. #14

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    Well if nothing else it would appear that a few backers agreed with my opinion

    a couple of hours ago having taken the 11/2 i was wondering if i had been to hasty and then the horse is backed to 5/2 !. unfortunently the writing was on the wall a long way out,oh well at least i beat the market if not the winner.
    It is always difficult to estimate improvement from 3yo but i expected a much closer finish from all four. next time!.



  15. #15

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    Firstly well done Mick in putting up a selection and having an opinion on a race based on your own analysis.
    It's not easy to have an opinion and stick to it, when i use to back horses in handicaps i used to only look at races where the horses were 5 or older and i would only ever back a horse that i knew could win off it's current mark.

    My main structure for handicaps was as follows.

    Must have won off current mark (set in stone)
    Must handle conditions (subjective, ie if it got beverly over 7f it would probs get 8f+ elsewhere)
    Must handle going (set in stone)
    Must have poor recent form ( not placed last 3 runs ) set in stone
    Must have sound relative draw ( i would be keen for any prominent racers to have agood draw at tight tracks or short distances not too bothered about hold up horses)
    Must not be favourite (set in stone just don't like betting favs in handicaps)

    That was my basic structure and i would read around it form wise.

    This approach worked very well for me poi wise , what i was doing was finding horses that had favourability to a particular circumstance but had recent poor form over unfavoured recent conditions. Punters put alot of sentiment in recent form and i find in older age handicaps it is not so relevant.

    With alot of horses being creatures of habit it is lucrative to find what suits them and you could do alot worse than taking the top 1-200 rated handicappers aged say 5+ and analysing them to see if there is apattern in their positive performances.

    One of my favs was texas gold, look at his form at lingfield and see what i mean :) made some great each way wagers on him there.

    The above is simply what i did to pick profitable selections it is not a guarantee or lecture simply my opinion on a route to profitability which is very subjective but the underlying angle does provide value.

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  16. #16

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    hi street cry find your above post a good read our ideas are not dissimilar,3yo hcap make up a very small percentage of my bets.The majority being on older horses with my particular fav age on the flat also 5yo.

    The bets i feel most confident about are when the selection has already put up a performance which is as good and preferably better than is necessary in order for him to win today's race.years ago i used to make a beeline for the very thing you advise ie horses who have run unplaced but with reasons which could be found to justify this some you have mentioned dist course and going being the obvious ones but i expect like myself you also found and capitalised with others.

    These days i have gradually changed my view in that i am looking for a decent recent run but of course we backers will often agree to differ on what that means.I think the technique you used which i used to call legal fiddling is not so open for a trainer to exploit in order to get a mark and price to go with it these days because the stewards or there advisers are farmore gemned up on the form book than they were IMOP even a few years back.

    And no mate i do not think you are giving a lecture but rather sensible hard earned advice that anyone interested in all aged hcaps should profit from reading and thinking about.



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