CrazyBadger's Favourites System

[crazybadger]

I have been super busy recently so have really been more of a spectator on here than anything good but I'm going to try to get back into it with a system I have recorded for the past 6ish months. I don't have the exact stats as they are on my laptop but it is a system focussed on short price (mostly odds on) favourites.

It has had about 150 selections (roughly 1 a day) and is currently at 70% strike rate but the average price of all winners so far is around the 1.60 mark so the required strike rate is about 60-65%.

[crazybadger]

02/02/2010

2:10 @ Taunton - Toubab

[mathare]

Good luck CB, always good to see someone trying something new

[crazybadger]

Good luck CB, always good to see someone trying something new

Thanks mate. We'll see if I can maintain this thread for longer than the others...

2:10 @ Taunton - Toubab...BSP of 1.74 but finished 6th.

I forgot to mention that to keep it simple I will just use BSP and talk in terms of units.

Stats
0/1
-1 unit

[crazybadger]

03/02/2010

2:55 @ Leic - Calzaghe
3:15 @ Newc - Turbo Island
6:30 @ Kemp - Lovers Causeway

[crazybadger]

03/02/2010

2:55 @ Leic - Calzaghe - Abandonded
3:15 @ Newc - Turbo Island - Abandonded
6:30 @ Kemp - Lovers Causeway- Removed

Eventful day :)

[vegyjones]

Just as well for the abandonments, the first two would neer have won... they were in my system

[crazybadger]

Just as well for the abandonments, the first two would neer have won... they were in my system

I was backing a change in your fortune. Even a broken watch is right twice a day...

[crazybadger]

I'm on my laptop now so I will put up the stats I have which show why I want to keep an eye on this system. I have stats from mid May 2009 to 1st Dec 2009 so just a bit over 6 months worth...

Selections: 147
Winners: 106 (72.11%)
Avg Odds of winners: 1.64
Mode Odds of all selections: 1.48
Median Odds of all selection: 1.55
Highest Odds: 3.01
Lowest Odds: 1.09
Longest Win streak: 9
Longest Loss streak: 4

Using a $500 start bank with a basic 5% staking plan (which I think will be very reasonable if this system can maintain 70% strike rate) then the bank stats are:
Current (and Highest) Bank: $1192.75
Current (and Highest) Profit: $692.75 (139% of starting bank)
Lowest Bank: $421.99 (84.4% of starting bank)
Total Risked: $4864.09
ROI: 14.24%

Very nice on all fronts. When I get time I will go through my data for Dec '09 and Jan '10 to see if the trend has continued.

[vegyjones]

I was backing a change in your fortune. Even a broken watch is right twice a day...

[crazybadger]

04/02/2010

2:50 @ Winc - Green Belt Elite
5:50 @ Wolv - Greyfriarchorista
7:20 @ Wolv - Aaman

Interestingly Aaman was close to being a selection two days ago but had one rule that went against him. He won that race and now he's back on my radar. Let's hope he makes it 3 wins on the trot...

[crazybadger]

2:50 @ Winc - Green Belt Elite - Won @ BSP 2.08
5:50 @ Wolv - Greyfriarchorista - Won @ BSP 1.40
7:20 @ Wolv - Aaman - Lost

Stats
2/4 (50%)
-0.52 Units

[crazybadger]

I could have sworn I posted yesterdays selections before my soccer game...oh well here is how they went.

1:45 @ Ling - Monaco Dream - Lost
4:10 @ Bang - Asturienne - Lost
8:05 @ Wolv - Into Wain - Won @ BSP 1.98


Stats
3/7 (42.86%)
-1.54 Units

[crazybadger]

I will get in early so I remember to get them in before cricket.

06/02/01
1:30 @ Sand - Binocular
2:25 @ Donc - Mad Max
2:35 @ Sand - Punchestowns

[crazybadger]

06/02/01
1:30 @ Sand - Binocular - Won @ BSP 1.15
2:25 @ Donc - Mad Max - 3rd
2:35 @ Sand - PunchestownsWon @ BSP 1.38

Stats
5/10 (50%)
-2.01 Units

[crazybadger]

7/02/10

2:10 @ Sthl - Inside Track

[crazybadger]

7/02/10

2:10 @ Sthl - Inside Track - 2nd

Boo

Stats
5/11 (45.45%)
-3.01 Units

[crazybadger]

08/02/10

Move along folks. Nothing to see hear...

[crazybadger]

09/02/2010
2:30 @ MktR - Over Sixty
2:40 @ Sedg - Tilt
4:50 @ Sthl - Spruce

[crazybadger]

09/02/2010
2:30 @ MktR - Over Sixty - won @ 1.25
2:40 @ Sedg - Tilt - lost
4:50 @ Sthl - Spruce - won @ 1.17

Stats
7/14 (50%)
-3.59 Units

[crazybadger]

10/02/10
3:40 @ Sthl - Lady Counsellor
3:55 @ Ling - Bowmaker
4:10 @ Sthl - Rebel Rebellion

[crazybadger]

10/02/10
3:40 @ Sthl - Lady Counsellor - Lost
3:55 @ Ling - Bowmaker - Lost
4:10 @ Sthl - Rebel Rebellion - Won @ 1.15

Stats
8/17 (47.06%)
-5.34 Units

[crazybadger]

11/02/10

Nada...

[crazybadger]

12/02/10
2:35 @ Kemp - Quantitativeeasing
2:45 @ Bang - Oversixty
3:30 @ Sthl - Doctor Zhivago
3:45 @ Kemp - Doc De Regniere

[crazybadger]

12/02/10
2:35 @ Kemp - Quantitativeeasing - Lost
2:45 @ Bang - Oversixty - won @ 1.40
3:30 @ Sthl - Doctor Zhivago - won @1.29
3:45 @ Kemp - Doc De Regniere - won @ 1.67

Stats
11/21 (52.38%)
-4.98 Units

[crazybadger]

13/02/2010
1:30 @ Newb - Diamond Harry
1:40 @ Ayr - Edge of Town
2:15 @ Warw - Long Run
2:30 @ Newb - Denman
3:40 @ Newb - Master Minded

[crazybadger]

13/02/2010
1:30 @ Newb - Diamond Harry - Won @ 1.69
1:40 @ Ayr - Edge of Town - Won @ 1.96
2:15 @ Warw - Long Run - Won @ 1.58
2:30 @ Newb - Denman - Lost
3:40 @ Newb - Master Minded - Won @ 1.78

Stats
15/26 (57.69%)
-2.97 Units

[crazybadger]

14/02/10

3:00 @ Extr - Najaf
3:35 @ Extr - Glenwood Knight

[crazybadger]

14/02/10

3:00 @ Extr - Najaf - won @ 1.85
3:35 @ Extr - Glenwood Knight - won @ 1.26

Stats
17/28 (60.71%)
-1.86 Units

[crazybadger]

15/02/10

3:40 @ Wolv - Bubbly Braveheart