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Thread: Recent run

  1. #1

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    Recent run

    I backed Borasco on AW today,he ran a poor race and the only explanation i can come up with is that he did not appreciate being run again after just a 3 day absence.I have noticed this is an increasing trend on AW and some of them win,in fact i am still sulking over Autumn blades recent win @7/1 as i feel sure that had i have had all the facts to hand for his run just the previous day he would have been a bet for me.In his case he did have the proven ability to win after a short break 3 days.

    I would be interested to hear from any members who have stats or opinion concerning the above.



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    Mick the ran within 4 day rule is not abad thing at all i use to run avery very strong system that backed horses turning out quickly and it made good profits so i see no real detrement myself in aquick turn out

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    Mick the ran within 4 day rule is not abad thing at all i use to run avery very strong system that backed horses turning out quickly and it made good profits so i see no real detrement myself in aquick turn out
    Hi SC was this AW or all codes



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    I seem to recall some studies being done on the flat and horses turning out again a few days after their last run seemed to do rather well but I don't have any details to back that up. The rationale was that the horse was known to be fit after one god run so should easily be able to do another soon after. It stuck in my mind as it was the opposite of what I expected. I thought that after a run I would be tired and would be better for a rest but the same isn't true of horses it seems. In fact some trainers treat a horse's first run after a break as a pipe-opener.

    I don't think this extends to NH though are races are longer and harder than a short sprint on the flat



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    4 Day rule does better in sprints as they don't use as much energy.

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    Worked well on flat turf and aw under 10f

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    Worked well on flat turf and aw under 10f
    Interesting you state < 10f win2win says best in sprints because they use less energy,i can see some logic in this,but because sprinters tend to be put under pressure far earlier in the race i wonder if proportionately they do use less energy i guess until some one can give us the stats for< 4 day run broken down into dist course and maybe individual trainer then we will not really no.

    I dont no how to use a computer to do this i am hoping that a member does and will post.



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    Horse DO NOT burn any energy in the first 4 furlongs of a race, they use what is in the blood before thay start converting reserves of fat for the muscles to burn.

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    i'll rsb it Mick when i get back from gym about lunchtime

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  10. #10

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    hi mick, mick i layed borasco.reason for taking it on, 1)running under a 6lb penalty,has won of a higher mark but that was as a 3yo.2)step up to 1m,all its wins have been at 7f (if i remember right ) 3) Southwell= with other front runners in the field,if the horse gets caught in the middle or back,they dont like the kickback at southwell (fibresand) the other tracts are polytrack,does not affect them like fibresand.
    huck



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    recent run

    hi huckabuck you give some sound reasoning and i would certainly not dispute it but the horse ran so poorly even allowing for what you say, that i have still got a bee in my bonnet that a major contributing reason may have been that he did not respond to running again after 3 days i am starting to think that this may be more suitable for some horses than others.with Borasco there was no evidence to go on and it will be interesting to watch his future runs.thanks for your input on this interesting subject



  12. #12
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    Hi Mick, sometimes quick return horses can be noteworthy - especially in NH handicaps.

    The official ratings are only reviewed weekly so some trainers will quickly enter their horses before the rating is reviewd. I wrote an article on it last year:

    http://betting.betfair.com/horse-rac...er-020109.html

    It's an oldie, but the returns are still good:

    Attached Images Attached Images
    Tada gan iarracht


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    yes mick it all depends on the horse having a few days of.on saturday i backed stanley goodspeed and full toss.stanley goodspeed won after winning 3 days before at the same track (lingfield). full toss came 3rd having won 2 days before.i have 1 win bet today Smalljohn, won 7 days ago at wolv,and is running here again today.he has a 50% S/R here.and is kept at the same distance 7f.been running at this distance for the last 18 months.



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    recent run

    Hi WB just read your article, well done a good read,for myself partically because hcaps are the area i focus on,but could i ask you to speculate futher,as i understand the reasoning you put forward for success, you feel that because these horses are turned out quickly after a win they are in front of the hcapper,in some instances this will be true,but in many others the new mark they receive will be less than the penalty they carried.

    I would certainly agree that your reason is often a contributing factor but i would like to see if we can explore possible other reasons as well.and i no your system involved a win LTO but i want to try and reach some conclusions about all who run within 4 days.i would be most interested if you or any other member have views on this.

    I dont no if it is relevant but i posted a thread about traveling dist which questioned a fact that is viewed as a positive indication IE a long journey to the race course.the over view the reason why this could? be considered a negative is that like humans some horses are not good travelers and so being on the motor way for 10hrs the day before might not be conducive to them running up to thier best.If there is any sence in this could some trainers be keeping horses at the course to run again or if running at different course going straight there instead of home first to shorten the journey?.



  15. #15
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    Yeah, it's true to say that there are times when the penalty will be more than the revised mark but in general, the trainer will only be happy to run the horse if he feels this is not the case. There are exceptions of course and those have to be factored in. But for data mining, I had to give it a set of rules. I have it set up so that I'm alerted to qualifiers but I don't blindly follow each and every one so it's not really a system as such.

    Tada gan iarracht


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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    I backed Borasco on AW today,he ran a poor race and the only explanation i can come up with is that he did not appreciate being run again after just a 3 day absence.I have noticed this is an increasing trend on AW and some of them win,in fact i am still sulking over Autumn blades recent win @7/1 as i feel sure that had i have had all the facts to hand for his run just the previous day he would have been a bet for me.In his case he did have the proven ability to win after a short break 3 days.

    I would be interested to hear from any members who have stats or opinion concerning the above.
    You not see my reply on the AW thread then?

    I concluded that you were right, the track going had changed from slow to when Borasco won to standard normal so the course rode faster & suited front runners & I don't think she stays 8f anyway & her penalty was probably more than the h'capper will put her up too.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    You not see my reply on the AW thread then?
    Yes i did read your reply,huckabuck has also made some interesting comments on this post 10 this thread.



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    following rules applied for practicality over last 20 years of racing
    ran in last 4 days
    horse is male (durability)
    sp less than 15/2

    2200 runs 453 wins 73 points profit 3.35% poi

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    following rules applied for practicality over last 20 years of racing
    ran in last 4 days
    horse is male (durability)
    sp less than 15/2

    2200 runs 453 wins 73 points profit 3.35% poi
    CHEERS SC interesting stats



  20. #20

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    i could break it down further should anyone have any specifics those stats cover all surfaces btw

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  21. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    i could break it down further should anyone have any specifics those stats cover all surfaces btw
    Yes please, aw chase hurdle flat dist course all sp and if poss trainer

    and the above for a 5yr time frame (most recent)

    and maybe exact number of days since last run ie 1 2 3 4

    and one for those carrying penalty's, Well you did ask mate !!!



  22. #22

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    ok i'll try and get it all together what i put up is flat as quick turnouts are less menaingful over jumps and less frequent

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


  23. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    ok i'll try and get it all together what i put up is flat as quick turnouts are less menaingful over jumps and less frequent
    Cheers SC,WB post 12 this thread tends to suggest diff?



  24. #24
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    My data only looks at handicaps - not sure about the overall figure for non handicaps.

    Tada gan iarracht


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    Quote Originally Posted by Street cry View Post
    Mick the ran within 4 day rule is not abad thing at all i use to run avery very strong system that backed horses turning out quickly and it made good profits so i see no real detrement myself in aquick turn out
    Yet when I post this:

    Another system but not Mordin: The <11 Day Win Follow Up Jobby

    The Rules:

    1. Look to all races at all of the meetings (including night
    meetings) and find any horses that have won last time out.
    2. Disregard any horse that has not run within the last 10 days
    (i.e. if the horse ran 11 days or longer ago then it is to be
    ignored).
    3. Disregard all races that have more than 14 runners.
    4. The horse must be at least 2/1 prior to the off.
    5. If there is more than 1 qualifier in any 1 race you must bet
    on the outsider, the horse with the highest odds.

    Basically, the horse has just won & making a quick reappearance before the h'capper's revised mark kicks in.


    On another thread - SC says:

    Street Cry:

    “There is no need to change the rules or dismiss qualifiers that have other attributes relating to certain win systems especially the aforementioned quick turn out system mentioned above which is actually quite weak over any amount of years.”

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  26. #26

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    FAO Godspot i see where you are coming from and i have already addressed this in another thread this seems quite ambiguous under the way you have quoted this but both statements bare truth contextually.

    I was saying to Mick recently that there is no huge detrement backing after a short interval when considering other factors accompanying so in simple terms, if everything else looks good then don't let a quick turn out detract from this.

    The flip side of this which you have seen as a contradiction is the fact that the 4> day rule used to be a profitable system in its own right which it no longer is.

    I hope this clears things up.

    Secondly i do not appreciate you threatening me with negative reputation as an intimidation for me to withdraw negative reputation i gave you in the past, i contribute to this forum out of choice and good will however i am not going to take threats from you or anyone else and will quite happily ask Keith to close my profile if you persist.

    ‘All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing’


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