3rd LTO RP TP All weather

[Matunty]

I have been developing a system based on RP top speed rated horses which were 3rd LTO. It probably isn't unique but after 100 bets i want to check it with a reliable database such as the Adrian Massey one. After 100 bets, £1 level stakes, win only, has returned 32%. Does anyone else have a similar system? Does anyone know of a reliable system builder that I can input my variables in order to test it over a longer period? Thanks. Steve

[mathare]

Before you test the data out elsewhere I'd question the rules. Why should this system work? RP top speed rating - fair enough. But 3rd LTO...? Not 2nd, not 4th but specifically 3rd. They could be 3rd by a nose or 3rd by a distance. All 3rds are not equal. This sounds like a system fitted to the results more than one based on actual sensible rules. Perhaps you could explain why you think these rules would make a good system...

[Matunty]

Thanks for responding so soon. You are of course correct; the losing distance may need to be factored into the system as there is obviously significant difference between a nose and 5 lengths. However, a horse could also come 3rd by a nose and be slower than a horse who came 5 lengths 3rd in a faster run race. The Retirement Paln book has this system without any allowances over a 4 year period and records in excess of 40% since 2001 and 45% for three year period without any other factors taken intop account other than those mentioned. That system is based on the favourite being placed 3rd LTO. I justw ant to know of an inexpensive system buider that I can use to place various factors into the mix and vary the permatations. Whatever the reservations, I am up 0ver £700 this year on that system so can't be wrong but I need to test it over a longer period of time on all weather courses. Thanks for responding as it is always a pleasure to read your repies. p.s. do you know of any others who are particularly interested in developing systems for the AW? I hope that you are able to respond soon. Steve

[Win2Win]

3rd would also make a bigger difference if it's last race was a handicap. It is usually thought that a 3rd in a handicap is used as the benchmark for the race, this is not the case, the benchmark is the most reliable form in the race.

[mick56]

Win2win very much agree your above comment and am surprised that this bench mark is not mentioned / debated more often.

Matunty while i understand your desire to back check results and or add additional filters,this is always a dangerous game to play.When using system research facilities the temptation to indulge in back fitting can be hard to resist,the problem being that what has occurred in the past will not necessarily do so in the future.

My advice would be to try your filters on future results not past,and even then be very disciplined concerning changing rules to fit results,one way you could achive this is to start a thread on this forum and put your systems selections up before they run,not only would this achive the above but over time you may get some helpful input from other members.

What ever route you decide i wish you good fortune with your system.

[mathare]

mix and vary the permatations. Whatever the reservations, I am up 0ver £700 this year on that system so can't be wrong

You'd be surprised. Being up £700 so far this year doesn't mean the system is profitable long-term

[Matunty]

Mick. This frum is great. Thanks for the advice. Okay, I will not back check results although one can undertsand the logic of doing so, particularly on AW where on standard ground there is a greater degree of consistency since the ground factor has largely been removed.

I will post selections and will unpack my system in more detail. I hope this does generate interest and comment.

18th February Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy (3 LTO). 49.25 points from a possible 75 maximum


System details/factors and my personal weighting which are a bit arbitrary but you have to start somewhere. If anyone got a simple excel spreadsheet, they could replicate my system from teh details below.

50 points starting 'bank'. The system is a spreadsheet which adds or deducts points. The total points then converts to money at the end. That is my stake.

1. 1 to 3 points for the jockey based on % winners in the last season at this course
2. 1 to 6 points if top rated by Adrian Massey
3. 2 points if 3rd LTO
4. -1 to -10 points depending on where the horse has been placed. -1 if the horse is favourite
5. the forecast odds as a decimal are deducted so more deductions from original bank if odds are high and less (therefore more stake remaining) if odds on.
6. Up to a maximum of 10 points is added for the selection based on its distance at this point above teh average total points for previous WINNERS. No bet is placed on a selection which at this point on the system is BELOW the average for previous
WINNING selections. Hope this bit makes sense!
7. The stake (calcualted by the raw points in the system) is doubled if the selection scores above 60 points. This has happened 5 times. The raw stake is trebled for any score above 70.This has never happened.
8. If the forecast odds are above 12, then I use the system stake and back each way.

% wins from this system as it appears above at races at Southwell, Lingfield, Wolverhampton since January 1st is 32.4% and I am £749.94 up.

Highest priced 'winner' was £434 on Very Well Red at Kempton January 10th which I backed ew and it won.

Comments, criticisms welcome. Will post my selection (I only have one each day, that is the 3 LTO with the highest score) and the result/s every day.

Regards

Steve

[mick56]

Mick. This frum is great. Thanks for the advice. Okay, I will not back check results although one can undertsand the logic of doing so, particularly on AW where on standard ground there is a greater degree of consistency since the ground factor has largely been removed.Steve

Hi steve all i gave was an opinion based on my own experiences, if you feel there is logic in back checking the AW results,then for your own peace of mind you should pursue this.Street cry may be the member to ask for help as i belive he uses RSB which might give the answers you seek.

I look forward to you posting your selections and hope this brings some interest and input from other members.

[Matunty]

Thanks for the tip. I respect your opinion and will test the system with past data. I will try and contact Street Cry as you suggest. Thanks for your comments; always valued. Steve

[Matunty]

3LTO - AW
System start:18th Bebruary 2010
Duration: 1 day

Today's result

% return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£1


18th February Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy (3 LTO). 49.25 points from 75
Result: 2nd beaten 1 3/4 lengths

Tomorrow's selection will be listed later this evening

[Street cry]

Haven't had time to really read this thread but Steve i got your message i'll rsb it tomorrow.
I need to load 2010 variables in to rsb first from the last update disc and then i'll do it cheers SC

[Matunty]

Street Cry; thanks for doing this for me. Much appreciated. I am about to pt on today's selection which is later this evening at Wolverhampton.

Thanks

Steve

[Matunty]

Matunty 3LTO - AW
System start:18th February 2010
Duration: 2 days

Results and Returns

% return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£1


18th February Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy (3 LTO). 49.25 points from 75
Result: 2nd beaten 1 3/4 lengths

19th February Wolverhampton 7.45 Fine Silk (3 LTO). 40 points from 75
(This horse is 'rated' below the current average for system winners of 42.9 so paper bet only). I won't count in the stats becuase srictly speaking it does not qualify)

[Matunty]

Matunty 3LTO - AW
System start:18th February 2010
Duration: 2 days

Results and Returns

Bets 1 % return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£1


18th February Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy (3 LTO). 49.25 points from 75
Result: 2nd beaten 1 3/4 lengths

19th February Wolverhampton 7.45 Fine Silk (3 LTO). 40 points from 75
(This horse is 'rated' below the current average for system winners of 42.9 so paper bet only). I won't count in the stats becuase srictly speaking it does not qualify). Lost as expected and I will not count in.

[Matunty]

Matunty 3LTO - AW
System start:18th February 2010
Duration: 2 days

Results and Returns

Bets 1 % return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£1


18th February Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy (3 LTO). 49.25 points from 75
Result: 2nd beaten 1 3/4 lengths

19th February Wolverhampton 7.45 Fine Silk (3 LTO). 40 points from 75
(This horse is 'rated' below the current average for system winners of 42.9 so paper bet only). I won't count in the stats becuase srictly speaking it does not qualify). Lost as expected and I will not count in.

20th February Lingfield 3.20 Benedict Spirit (3 LTO). 45.5 out of 75. Bet on 'cos above average of 42.9.

[Matunty]

Matunty 3LTO - AW
System start:18th February 2010
Duration: 3 days

Results and Returns

Bets 2 % return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£2

18th Feb Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy LOST
20th Feb Lingfield 3.20 Benedict Spirit LOST



Next Selection:

21st Feb Southwell 3.20 Essej ABANDONED

[Matunty]

Matunty 3LTO - AW
System start:18th February 2010
Duration: 5 days

Results and Returns

Bets 2 % return = o% £1 Level stakes = -£2

18th Feb Southwell 2.55 Desert Fairy LOST
20th Feb Lingfield 3.20 Benedict Spirit LOST



Next Selection:

21st Feb Southwell 3.20 Essej ABANDONED

22nd Feb No bet
23rd Feb Lingfield 5.10 Atavarma Sunrise Lingfield 5.10

[Matunty]

[QUOTE=Matunty;525066]
22nd Feb No bet
23rd Feb Lingfield 5.10 Atavarma Sunrise Lingfield 5.10 Lost

24th Feb Lingfield 2.10 The Geester

[gobro]

I have been developing a system based on RP top speed rated horses which were 3rd LTO. It probably isn't unique but after 100 bets i want to check it with a reliable database such as the Adrian Massey one. After 100 bets, £1 level stakes, win only, has returned 32%. Does anyone else have a similar system? Does anyone know of a reliable system builder that I can input my variables in order to test it over a longer period? Thanks. Steve

Always concentrate on " speed, pace, draw " ... if you don' know how to concentrate, so give up about horse racing ... first learn it ...

Ps: sorry about my english ...