Originally Posted by
bryn
Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?
Oh! You thought it strange about 7/1 & wanted thoughts on that? Trust me to go off on a tangent & do a piece on the merit of their worths - save to say, that 7/1 now doesn't mean anything other than the bookies don't want any more money for that horse for the time being...
My worst National has to be Lord Gyllene's, 'I'm not touching that 7/1 favourite!' As he had been all year up until about 30 seconds before the off when he went for a walk in the market & all of a sudden I'm choking on my beer, 'WTF is he doing at 14/1?' For some reason, I knew then that he was the winner & that I had missed one. Bad day but
Fully respect his chances but does that extra year on his back, after being 6th last year, constitute a stone improvement? He’ll have to find a little more than that to finish in front of Mon Mome I reckon–
I could make a strong case to suggest Mon Mome has been gifted a fair chance of a repeat -
In 2005, Hedgehunter won by 14l’s, carrying 11-1 with a rating of 144 – the following year he lost by 6l’s under the welter burden of 11-12 off a rating of 156. [carrying 11lb more rated 12lb higher]
Last year, Mon Mome won by 12l’s [beating previous year’s winner, Comply Or Die, carrying 11lb more rated 15lb higher, did well?] carrying 11 0 with a rating of 148, this year he gets in on 11-7 rated 155 – so he’s already won with a higher rating & now he’s trying to follow up with a lower weight & rating than Hedgehunter who only lost by 6l’s - so here we have the highest rated winner for some time (I'll confirm this), carrying 7lb more & rated 7lb higher but
Hedgehunter was one of those obliging favs: He’d fallen in the race the year before but had just returned to winning form as a chaser prior to his win after being racing over hurdles to preserve his mark. He had been placed in the Hennessy (Newbury in November, class form) & Welsh National before that. Though I didn’t back him, he lacked a decent speed figure for me but thought he was a worthy favourite & the most probable winner.
Grittar, the 1982 winner, he was made favourite after running 6th in that year’s Gold Cup but he had also won the previous season’s Aintree Foxhunter Chase, he carried 11-5. Bit before my time & the Racing Post’s, had to get the books out for that.
Comply Or Die, he was a joint favourite, he’d also been placed in a Hennessy but had also ran a cracking speed figure at Newcastle after the National weights had come out in February which made him look glaringly, ‘well-in’ at the weights. I was out of racing this year but if I had seen his figures, I would have liked.
Earth Summit, may have been lucky that the ground came up soft/heavy as & when it did for him to oblige as favourite, he’d clocked a decent speed figure in similar conditions when he won the Welsh National en route – always remember as being one of the easiest Nationals to call.
Rough Quest, well! Bar the whopping girt speed figure that he had earned when coming 2nd in the Gold Cup just prior to, which made him easily the best h’capped horse in the race & maybe the fact that he too had been placed in a Hennessy – quite reminds me of your, Big Fella Thanks. In that, like BFT has unseated twice in his last 7 starts, Rough Quest had fallen but also, was one of those that didn’t want to be in front too soon. Even though massively well handicapped, still considered by some as a career best ride by jockey, Mick Fitzgerald.
In conclusion, I’d say BFT lacks the recent speed figure of Rough Quest & Comply Or Die & the big h’cap experience of Hedgehunter & Earth Summit besides… Besides the Racing Post suggesting he’s the one to take from the race last year for this & the fact that he’s gotten in under 11 stone – your 25/s would have made a great EW bet but & to be honest, I seem to have spent more time looking at previous winners than I have this year’s runners to suggest who really warrants favouritism…. I’ll be back!
PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata