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Thread: Grand national

  1. #31

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    I think that if it was me I would trade off a little........ A free bet (or almost a free bet) on the national is a good thing, the national is a rather unique race in my opinion, there are so many things that can happen like free horses getting in the way etc.

    I would trade off at least part of the bet, you are in such a good situation with the market moving like it has.


    If it was a system bet I would not trade it off, but from what I can gather here its a fun bet that has worked out pretty well so far.



  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by bryn View Post
    Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?
    Oh! You thought it strange about 7/1 & wanted thoughts on that? Trust me to go off on a tangent & do a piece on the merit of their worths - save to say, that 7/1 now doesn't mean anything other than the bookies don't want any more money for that horse for the time being...

    My worst National has to be Lord Gyllene's, 'I'm not touching that 7/1 favourite!' As he had been all year up until about 30 seconds before the off when he went for a walk in the market & all of a sudden I'm choking on my beer, 'WTF is he doing at 14/1?' For some reason, I knew then that he was the winner & that I had missed one. Bad day but

    Fully respect his chances but does that extra year on his back, after being 6th last year, constitute a stone improvement? He’ll have to find a little more than that to finish in front of Mon Mome I reckon–

    I could make a strong case to suggest Mon Mome has been gifted a fair chance of a repeat -

    In 2005, Hedgehunter won by 14l’s, carrying 11-1 with a rating of 144 – the following year he lost by 6l’s under the welter burden of 11-12 off a rating of 156. [carrying 11lb more rated 12lb higher]

    Last year, Mon Mome won by 12l’s [beating previous year’s winner, Comply Or Die, carrying 11lb more rated 15lb higher, did well?] carrying 11 0 with a rating of 148, this year he gets in on 11-7 rated 155 – so he’s already won with a higher rating & now he’s trying to follow up with a lower weight & rating than Hedgehunter who only lost by 6l’s - so here we have the highest rated winner for some time (I'll confirm this), carrying 7lb more & rated 7lb higher but

    Hedgehunter was one of those obliging favs: He’d fallen in the race the year before but had just returned to winning form as a chaser prior to his win after being racing over hurdles to preserve his mark. He had been placed in the Hennessy (Newbury in November, class form) & Welsh National before that. Though I didn’t back him, he lacked a decent speed figure for me but thought he was a worthy favourite & the most probable winner.

    Grittar, the 1982 winner, he was made favourite after running 6th in that year’s Gold Cup but he had also won the previous season’s Aintree Foxhunter Chase, he carried 11-5. Bit before my time & the Racing Post’s, had to get the books out for that.

    Comply Or Die, he was a joint favourite, he’d also been placed in a Hennessy but had also ran a cracking speed figure at Newcastle after the National weights had come out in February which made him look glaringly, ‘well-in’ at the weights. I was out of racing this year but if I had seen his figures, I would have liked.

    Earth Summit, may have been lucky that the ground came up soft/heavy as & when it did for him to oblige as favourite, he’d clocked a decent speed figure in similar conditions when he won the Welsh National en route – always remember as being one of the easiest Nationals to call.

    Rough Quest, well! Bar the whopping girt speed figure that he had earned when coming 2nd in the Gold Cup just prior to, which made him easily the best h’capped horse in the race & maybe the fact that he too had been placed in a Hennessy – quite reminds me of your, Big Fella Thanks. In that, like BFT has unseated twice in his last 7 starts, Rough Quest had fallen but also, was one of those that didn’t want to be in front too soon. Even though massively well handicapped, still considered by some as a career best ride by jockey, Mick Fitzgerald.

    In conclusion, I’d say BFT lacks the recent speed figure of Rough Quest & Comply Or Die & the big h’cap experience of Hedgehunter & Earth Summit besides… Besides the Racing Post suggesting he’s the one to take from the race last year for this & the fact that he’s gotten in under 11 stone – your 25/s would have made a great EW bet but & to be honest, I seem to have spent more time looking at previous winners than I have this year’s runners to suggest who really warrants favouritism…. I’ll be back!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  3. #33
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    bryn is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

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    Very interesting read Godspot. Thank you for your thoughts



  4. #34

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    grand national

    Any one been following developments for Character Building,horse just been sold,new owners replacing amature booked for the ride,with yet to be announced professional jockey,this should be interesting because there will be plenty who if free will want the ride.My 20/1 looking a bit sweeter.



  5. #35
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    Some stats for the national past winners

    The last 3 winners have all be 10.6 weight, in the last 15 years most have been between 10.5 and 10.7, only 2 horses ran last year at 10.6 mon mone being one of them.

    The last 10 winners all share the following characteristics:-

    * 8 to 12 years old
    * Handicap rating above 135 on the day
    * Weight of 11 stone 5lb or under
    * won over at least three miles
    * run in at least ten chases
    * won a chase worth at least £17,000

    Only the following 6 runners meet all these:-

    Snowy Morning 16/1
    Arbor Supreme 16/1
    Hello Bud 40/1
    Niche Market 16/1
    Dream Alliance 40/1
    Eric's Charm 40/1

    And my choice is none of them



  6. #36

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    Interesting news that Nina Carberry booked for my bet Character building,i have previously posted about female jockeys being under valued,but am not sure what to make of this.
    Still the market has reacted by all going 16/1,and with the many once a year female punters likely to back the horse i can see weight of money causing a futher reduction.
    What ever the outcome if she is involved in the finish it will provide a much needed puff for racing.
    I have £200 win + £50 place at 20/1 and because this was a one off speculative wager i am inclined to go SOB and stand the lot.
    Whatever occurs on SAT my main wish is that all horses and riders get round safely.



  7. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Any one been following developments for Character Building,horse just been sold,new owners replacing amature booked for the ride,with yet to be announced professional jockey,this should be interesting because there will be plenty who if free will want the ride.My 20/1 looking a bit sweeter.
    It gets more interesting by the minute!

    I was going to write a little book about Party Politics 1992 winner, which was the first horse to spring to mind when I read that but later found it was the same connections. This was one of my best Nationals & I would have won a small fortune in doubles if Labour had won that year’s election by as many seats as the Tories eventually did.

    I’d had him noted for the race some time before, maybe after he too was 2nd in both the Hennessy & Welsh National before Xmas, I was targeting the race as the middle leg of an EW accumulator, I was trying to get some serious money onto Marling in the 1,000 Guineas (God, God, if only she had had bigger nostrils, or darn Walter Swinburn if he hadn’t jumped ship to the ruddy foreigner, Hatoof but)

    He was marked out also as the biggest horse in training of his time – anyone know who this years’ biggest is, cos I don’t?

    He incidentally too was made 7/1 favourite for the race the following year & I was keen on a repeat but the race ended up as VOID

    Strictly speaking - Character Building has 10l’s to find with Mon Mome on their running at Chelt Dec 08 & 7l’s to find with Dream Alliance on their 2007 Hennessy running. Is now to be ridden by Nina Carberry who rode:

    Forest Gunner – Trained by R Ford – 33/1 12yo finished 9th & last behind Numbersixvalverde(Ire) back in 2006 – was the last horse to be ridden by a woman in the Grand National.

    Not sure but we’ll be looking at a bit of history if he’s placed – from what I can work out, the best a woman jockey has done so far is complete the course in last place!

    The first woman to ride, 1977, Charlotte Brew. The first to complete the course, Geraldine Rees, 1982 - came across an interesting little site looking that up:
    http://www.grand-national-world.co.u...les/women.html

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  8. #38

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    Carrie Ford finished 5th on Forest Gunner in 2005



  9. #39

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    Just come across someone's trend analysis of the race and their shortlist is:

    Snowy Morning (best current fixed odds, 16-1)
    Priests Leap (100-1)
    Ballyfitz (150-1)
    Ollie Magern (150-1)
    Hello Bud (50-1)

    They have 15 of the last 16 winners apparently, not sure from how many slections though.

    I will be putting my own trends-based shortlist together when time permits



  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    Just come across someone's trend analysis of the race and their shortlist is:

    Snowy Morning (best current fixed odds, 16-1)
    Priests Leap (100-1)
    Ballyfitz (150-1)
    Ollie Magern (150-1)
    Hello Bud (50-1)

    They have 15 of the last 16 winners apparently, not sure from how many slections though.

    I will be putting my own trends-based shortlist together when time permits
    In the last 12 runnings there have been exactly 100 runners who failed to make the first three in one of their last four starts - 1 was placed!

    That leaves you with Ballyfitz & Snowy Morning, the latter of which just happens to be the only contender to pass on all four principal trends as marked up by Alistair Whitehouse-Jones in this week's Weekender.

    I think he's solid EW material.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  11. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post

    That leaves you with Ballyfitz &
    Have a look at his form from Nov/Dec 08

    Giving 3lb & btn 7l's by What A Friend who just won his 2nd Grade 1 since today & giving 8lb & an 11l's beating to the present favourite, Big Fella Thanks!

    Seems slightly overpriced to me ? ?

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  12. #42

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    OK, here's my trend analysis for the Grand National.

    Only Red Rum has won carrying 11st 5lb since 1957
    No 7yo winners for 69 years
    No 6yo winners for 97 years
    Only 4 of last 36 6yo and 7yo runners completed the course
    10 of last 16 winners were 9yo or 10yo
    Last teenager to win was 86 years ago
    Only 3 winning favs in last 21 years
    Every winner since 1970 had previously won over 3m

    So if we eliminate every runner carrying 11st 5lb or more and those aged 6yo (none), 7yo and 13yo or older (none) we're left with 31 horses. If we then filter down to 9yo and 10yo horses we have 18 runners, not including the forecast favourite. Now let's drop those without a previous win over 3m leaving us with:

    Don't Push It
    Niche Market
    Dream Alliance
    Cloudy Lane
    Nozic
    My Will
    Beat The Boys
    Preists Leap
    Snowy Morning
    State of Play
    Character Building
    Ellerslie George
    Ballyfitz

    So the winner is in there, somewhere. But that's almost a third of the field so further refining is required.

    Only three of the last 16 winners started at greater than 16/1 so can we rule out any of the rank outsiders? Perhaps, but let's just have a quick check of some of that form quickly...

    Negatives
    Dream Alliance has only 1 win in the last 3 years
    Nozic last won in Dec 08 and has been well beaten several times since
    My Will last won in Nov 06
    Snowy Morning has one win over 3m and it came in 2007

    Interesting
    Preists Leap has only just got the distance before but stayed on and beat Black Apalachi
    Ballyfitz gave Big Fella Thanks a proper beating back in Nov 08

    If we rule out those I have negative form thoughts about we're down to 9.

    Beat The Boys is the forecast outsider of the lot and with that 16/1 mark in mind is eliminated.

    AP McCoy has to win this race at some point but with no wins from 14 attempts his mount has to eliminated on the trends. 7 left.

    Ballyfitz and Preists Leap have things going for them so Ellerslie George is ruled out as I have filled my big price slots (he says, quite arbitrarily).

    So I have reduced the field to:

    Niche Market (18/1)
    Cloudy Lane (40/1)
    Preists Leap (150/1)
    State of Play (20/1)
    Character Building (20/1)
    Ballyfitz (80/1)

    I'd like to have got it down to 5 runners max but I can't easily drop any of those 6 so we'll stick with that.



  13. #43

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    your above most interesting matt,as i initially treated the race as a normal handicap and rated the runners,and my top two are amongst your 6 on trends Character building 1lb in front of Niche market,



  14. #44

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    Just uncovered some more trends that would reorder my list with Niche Market, Cloudy Lane and State of Play favoured ahead of the other three although all would remain on my shortlist. It's just that those three hit some of the trends harder than the others. I quite fancy those two big priced runners for a potential place though.



  15. #45

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    When i analysed the national i did not expect to find any horse that i would want to back,and the fact that Character Building kept coming up as a potential winner caused me to decide on a bet in a race i have not wagered on for 20yrs.To day i am also backing Carlitos in the preceding race the current BOG of 8/1 appears good value.

    It is probably also > 20yrs since i last placed a multiple bet,but with the prices of 8/1 and 20/1,i have just placed a £50ew double,its a bit of fun for which i will probably have to pay!.

    What ever the outcome of mine or your wagers my main hope is that all participant's complete safely.Good luck to all.



  16. #46

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    I'll just dutch 1/2 the field and trade out at a profit at some point, guaranteed in a race 4.5 miles

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