Cookie Policy: This web site uses cookies. By using this site you agree to our cookie policy.
Disclaimer: By posting on this web site it is accepted that you have agreed to the T&C. This is an information forum, and it is just that information, all views are of the individual poster and not that of the site owner. Please DO NOT publish copyrighted material without the owners permission. If you copy news or articles include a link back to the original site. Threads/Posts may be deleted on request. No other links without permission.
BEFORE POSTING A QUESTION: Your question has probably been asked before, so please use the
SEARCH FUNCTION, as we grow tired of answering the same question again and again.
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 30 of 46

Thread: Grand national

  1. #1
    bryn's Avatar
    bryn is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,709
    Rep Power
    56

    Grand national

    I have placed a bet on "Big fella thanks" to win the Grand national @ 25/1.
    And after his win yesterday the odds has gone down to 10/1.
    Can anyone advice on what action if any I should do. I was thinking of laying it to loose for a free 15/1 bet or lay it for a profit either way win or lose.
    Thanks in advance
    Bryn



  2. #2

    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Posts
    10,445
    Rep Power
    113
    I'd take the free bet.



  3. #3

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Rugby
    Posts
    674
    Rep Power
    36
    Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

    i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

    of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

    from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..



  4. #4
    bryn's Avatar
    bryn is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,709
    Rep Power
    56
    Quote Originally Posted by neilb7 View Post
    Depends how much your bet is Bryn ?

    i cant advise on what you should do, but from a hard lesson the other week i had Tricky Trickster at around 19/20 and i layed it off when it went down to 10 or 11

    of course it won and meant i would have been a couple of hundred better off than i was:splapme

    from that lesson i will always stick now with my win bet and just let it run..
    Neil
    I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250



  5. #5

    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Rugby
    Posts
    674
    Rep Power
    36
    Quote Originally Posted by bryn View Post
    Neil
    I have £50 riding on it, if it wins @ 25/1 thats £1250
    for £50 back in your pocket and a free 15/1 bet, i would lay it off...

    if you havent had any other bets you could put the £50 on some others...

    good luck .....



  6. #6

    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    N Wales
    Posts
    50,310
    Rep Power
    275
    You either decide to trade bets or you don't. For trading use a seperate account, don't mic it with Lay/Win bets. As Neil points out, messing about can cost you money.

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  7. #7

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35
    Hi bryn and well done i like to see anyone beat the market.I can see the attraction in laying off to be on a bet to nothing,but if you had good reasons to think the horse would win the national which now have been futher vindicated by the current odds my advice would be to hang on to what you have got sob. good fortune whatever your decision.



  8. #8
    bryn's Avatar
    bryn is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,709
    Rep Power
    56
    Keith and Mick
    You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
    Thanks



  9. #9

    Join Date
    Jun 2003
    Location
    London
    Posts
    26,503
    Rep Power
    184
    Just to add my opinion to this, if I were you Bryn I would wait till the race market on the day is put up and check the odds again then. You can always leave an order to lay it off for a chunk in-running if it does shorten.

    The National is still a month away and a lot can happen between now and then. As Mick says, you had a reason for sticking £50 on it at 25/1 and were justified in doing so according to the market moves. If the horse doesn't make the starting line for whatever reason you have lost the opportunity to have traded out but no more money than you would have done had it not shortened to 10/1. If you trade out and it wins you'll be kicking yourself. If it runs and doesn't win, again you could have saved your stake but when you struck the bet you felt it was solid enough for £50 on the nose. What I am saying is a lot can happen in the next month and no-one really knows how it will all go down.

    If your selection gets prominent in the race I would be tempted to lay it off to cover your stake at least.



  10. #10

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35

    grand national

    hi bryn i was just thinking we could have the makings of an interesting thread here by asking Do any other members invest in the Ante Post markets?

    This is an area where i dont dabble hence my interest in any views / experiences of other members.



  11. #11
    lowe1's Avatar
    lowe1 is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Takoradi Ghana / Childwall Liverpool
    Posts
    3,056
    Rep Power
    60
    I have had £25 on tricky Trickster at 18/1 about 2 months ago



  12. #12

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35

    grand national

    Hi lowe1 nice one mate,on reading your post the first thought i had was you might be able to do a bit of bussiness with bryn.and there's an idea a win2win punters co operative!.

    There is bound to be some boring legislation which prevents this,but i can certainly see the potential.



  13. #13

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Quote Originally Posted by bryn View Post
    Keith and Mick
    You are right I will let it run @ 25/1. I really should have done it each way.
    Thanks
    I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing & would keep hold but maybe agree with Mathare (Crikey! No!) a touch too...

    I was going to start a thread around the prospects of Niche Market after his recent run against Denman - still feel the official h'capper should have upped him & Tricky Trickster a lot more than the 3lb or so that he did. Statistically speaking, TT being a 7yo, none since 1940 have won, he's up against it & NM on 11-4, he is too but otherwise has a winning profile. Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't that last years' winner has been over-burdoned either.

    Enjoy the interim whatever!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  14. #14

    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    N Wales
    Posts
    50,310
    Rep Power
    275
    You could always just lay off enough to get your stake back, and have a free bet.

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  15. #15
    wb's Avatar
    wb is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Éire
    Posts
    7,347
    Rep Power
    80
    I cases like this, I generally lay off just enough to cover my stake. If he loses, no harm done and if he wins, you still have a nice bet.

    Tada gan iarracht


  16. #16

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    I think you're sitting pretty - he's set to carry less than 11 stone which is no bad thing
    But according to Nick Mordin's latest - perhaps not - reckons he's going to have trouble with the long run-in @ Aintree.....

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  17. #17

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Quite fancy, Snowy Morning but am going to wait until the lower weights sort themselves out a bit & having said that I don't think that last year's winner has been over-burdoned either.
    11 7 Mon Mome - would that be the most carried since Red Rum?

    Going to take something to beat him after his Gold Cup 3rd - have gone off Snowy Morning (too many mistakes last year?) somewhat and prefer a fresh State Of Play but My Will is arguably best off at the weights on last years running but still has 4l's to find. Perhaps Willie Mullins' other runner, Arbor Supreme on 10 8 is interesting but at this stage Mon Mome looks solid?

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  18. #18

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    781
    Rep Power
    35
    What date is the national?



  19. #19

    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Earth
    Posts
    8,065
    Rep Power
    118
    Quote Originally Posted by barrelmaniac View Post
    What date is the national?
    Saturday 10th April




  20. #20

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    781
    Rep Power
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by Ada View Post
    Saturday 10th April



    that soon!


    I usually take a kicking in the big festivals, so another one so soon will probably not be so good for me!



  21. #21

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35

    grand national

    Hi BM i never get excited about the festivals from a betting point of view,and often end up doing a lot of work for nothing,last week for instance i put in many hours of work on the hcaps to come up with just one bet which lost!.

    But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.



  22. #22

    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    N Wales
    Posts
    50,310
    Rep Power
    275
    Not so soon really, sometimes it is only a 2 week break!!

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  23. #23

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    But i do enjoy watching the best horses race against each other,and from a betting angle noting some of the horses for next time can prove profitable.
    That is almost:

    "My best advice (& this coming from someone who had a profitable meet) for the meeting though, is to watch every race closely & make notes of everything you see. I guarantee they'll provide you with many great bets over the next year."

    Word 4 word, N Mordin last week's column

    Take today - I thought it interesting that Synchronised had swerved the 4 miler (on account of the ground not being soft enough) for the Midlands National. & if Melange does anything in the 5.10, I'll be chuffed!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  24. #24

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35

    grand national

    Bryns 25/1 on big fella looking very sweet now,and the best of luck mate.

    The national is not a race i normally bet in,but have been going through the form today and the one i keep coming back to is Character Building,plenty of 20/1 on offer and i am tempted to risk 1pt win and 1/4pt place.

    Any views on this ones chance?



  25. #25

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Bryns 25/1 on big fella looking very sweet now,and the best of luck mate.

    The national is not a race i normally bet in,but have been going through the form today and the one i keep coming back to is Character Building,plenty of 20/1 on offer and i am tempted to risk 1pt win and 1/4pt place.

    Any views on this ones chance?
    First off - Big Fella Thanks

    BIG FELLA THANKS LOOKS A SUSPECT NATIONAL FAVOURITE

    I can understand why last year's Grand National sixth BIG FELLA THANKS (39) was promoted to favouritism for this year's race following his win over an inadequate two and a half miles in a valuable Grade 3 at Newbury. But the stats say he's an unlikely National winner, and there has to be a concern about the way he eased himself up on the run in.

    In fact I thought Big Fella Thanks was a pretty safe chuck out at Newbury because there were only nine runners and he's shown repeatedly that he loses interest in small fields. He even tried to pull himself up once in a four runner race at Taunton.

    What I hadn't taken account of was that nine runners might just provide enough cover for Big Fella Thanks with a very clever ride from Barry Geraghty.
    Geraghty ensured that Big Fella Thanks was surrounded by horses almost all the way through the contest. His mount never had the chance to lose interest. In fact he moved really well throughout.

    However Geraghty couldn't keep Big Fella Thanks covered up forever, so after the last he asked him to go clear. Big Fella Thanks quickly opened up a gap of three lengths but almost as quickly he started to ease himself up. The line came in time on the short run in and he was saved.

    Even assuming that Big Fella Thanks jumps the National course once more and somehow manages to get to the head of affairs in the closing stages there is one huge problem, and that is the run in. There is a half mile run in at Aintree. By the end of the race Big Fella Thanks will be really tired and if he's good enough to win he'll be lucky to have any company from the last. So how on earth is his jockey going to keep him going for a full half mile? N Mordin


    It's going to be interesting & while I don't really want to keep spamming N Mordin, it just so happens, Mick, that you have opted for:

    "If you put a gun to my head & made me pick one from the four, I'd go for Character Building."

    His final four from a list of 11 - that in recent seasons horses with similar profiles have won 3 of the last 4 Nationals - Arbor Supreme, Character Building, Chelsea Harbour & Mr Pointment.

    Arbor Supreme, he says, looks the most obvious but if it came up soft then Chelsea Harbour, is weighted to beat him & at 100/1, interesting!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  26. #26

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35
    Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

    The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
    He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
    So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

    An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.



  27. #27

    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    781
    Rep Power
    35
    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi GS thanks for your reply,i do not read N.Mordin based on previouse articles from him which you have posted he appears to work on stats and trends?,which while they can be useful are not an area that i put a lot of emphasis on,or not the type hyped up by the racing press anyway.

    The national is not a race i would normally bet on,but when i handicapped the runners Character Building on my figs was the only + rated horse in the race,the rating comes from last season but the races he has had this season where both in unsuitable events and he was not equipped with the tongue tie which appeared to work for him last year.
    He will stay and i think the course will suit partically the long run in.
    So that is a brief summery of why i feel he could be worth a bet.

    An interesting foot note yesturday evening i decided to have a bet on the horse,one of the leading exponents of best odds guaranteed now only allow this if you place the bet on line,So i attempted to do so asking for £50 e/w and £150 win at thier 20/1, i was offered £50 ew plus a futher £48? at the 20/1.This in a race where the turnover will be millions.
    Its a bit strange that they wouldnt take your bet in a race with such high turnover.
    Why don't you place a win bet with betfair, and then also a bet nearer the time when they have the place exchange?



  28. #28

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35

    grand national

    Hi BM i do all my betting on BF now but the speculation on this race was going to be a one off,so i wanted to keep it separate from my BF account.

    But the above is one reason why people are leaving bookmakers and putting thier money on the exchanges ?.



  29. #29
    bryn's Avatar
    bryn is offline Win2Win Racing Club Member

    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    North Wales
    Posts
    3,709
    Rep Power
    56
    Since 1970 there were only five favourites that have won the Grand National. Strange enough the sp for all five was 7/1. Big fella thanks now is the favourite @ 7/1. Any thoughts ?



  30. #30

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    essex
    Posts
    1,118
    Rep Power
    35
    hi bryn the horse does not no what price he is,and anyway for you he is not 7/1 but 25/1
    i like to see anyone beat the market and you are sitting pretty there mate.



Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Grand national
    By susanwells in forum Your Daily Horse Racing Tips
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 10th April 2010, 13:44
  2. Grand National
    By mathare in forum Your Daily Horse Racing Tips
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 6th April 2008, 10:14
  3. Grand National
    By manckevin in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&A
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 1st February 2005, 10:35
  4. Grand National
    By Linda in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&A
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 16th May 2004, 21:31

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Free Tips | Betting Advice | UK Horse Racing Tips | Free Bets | Staking Advice | Horse Racing Systems | Horse Racing Lays | Laying System | UK Horse Racing Tips | lay betting