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Thread: mathare's Cheltenham bets

  1. #31

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    World Hurdle
    First Pass
    Big Buck's and Sentry Duty are all I have after key trends

    Second Pass
    Big Buck's
    23%, ave-good season
    3/38, -18.00pts
    Equal to best staying hurdlers of last 20yrs, complete package with opposition weaker than perhaps may have been
    Will get beaten one day but is this the day?

    Sentry Duty
    23%, v good season
    4/58, -18.25pts
    Tailed off at last two festivals, doesn't have qualifying RPR, not won Graded hurdle & must prove stamina
    Has big chance if runs well, stamina doubts

    Third Pass
    Read those comments above and ask yourself if you'd spend the time analysing the two fancies in more detail. Big Buck's gets praised all over the shop while Sentry Duty has a lot to prove. Big Buck's is also well clear on key trends

    Other
    Last 3 winners aged 9yo or orlder were previous winners of this race
    No 5yo has won this race but 4/9 placed
    Five winners 1st or 2nd LTO
    Rare for prev year's winner to return - Baracouda (1st, 2nd) and Inglis Drever (1st) only ones to have tried in past decade
    All four Irish winners since mid-80s prepped in Boyne Hurdle - War of Attrition, Ebadiyan
    Long Distance and Long Walk Hurdles both good guide to winner here - Big Buck's won both
    Cleeve Hurdle another good indicator - Tidal Bay

    Conclusions
    Big Buck's all the way, simple as that



  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattw07 View Post
    Good Luck for today Mat.

    Was hoping you'd mention The Hollinwell in the Jewson as thats where my money is, by the looks of it youve completely skipped over the top of the Market, going for the big odds today!! :)
    I'm starting with key trends as I am very much a stats man and The Hollinwell was close to making the shortlist but just fell short.



  3. #33

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    Byrne Group Plate
    First Pass
    After key trends shortlist is: My Petra, Song of Songs, Martys Mission, Great Endeavour, Sunnyhillboy, Victorias Groom

    Second Pass
    My Petra
    22%, v good season
    6/64, +35pts festival record

    Song of Songs
    Yard inexperienced with chasers

    Martys Mission
    8%, ave-poor season

    Great Endeavour
    17%, ave season
    1/21, -13pts at festival

    Sunnyhillboy
    17%, ave-poor season
    1/34, -28pts festival record, first h'cap chase winner last year

    Victorias Groom
    14%, small yard having ave-poor season

    Third Pass
    My Petra
    Hasn't got round often in last year or so, lost to Zarinava LTO (hdl) who was well beaten in Mares Hdl, not finished chase course for 4 starts, FPP course form
    Gd-GF
    Wins over 2m3f or shorter, hasn't finished run over distance
    1-28 age group record
    14% sire progeny SR
    Wins all in small fields

    Song of Songs
    Sandown and Cheltenham form important here, let down by both
    Gd-sft
    Wins over 2m, weakened over final 50yds over distance here 2yrs back (Coral Cup)
    3-57 for 8yo
    10% SR overall for progeny but better on gd-GF
    Chase wins in v small fields

    Martys Mission
    Well beaten on all starts this season, stone last here in Oct
    Only chase win on GF
    Won over distance but in Dec 08
    3-57 for 8yo
    ~10% SR progeny
    Little experience in big fields

    Great Endeavour
    Poor in Coral Cup last year, decent 3rd here Nov but poor since
    Gs-Sft
    Several wins over distance
    Only 1 6yo win from 24
    Few jumps winners from sire
    Has won in 14/15 runner fields

    Sunnyhillboy
    Hammered here last year in county hurdle, either won narrowly or lost heavily this season
    Gd-Sft
    Comfortable win over 2m4f LTO so should get 1f further
    1 from 28 for 7yos
    Old Vic progeny have poor festival chase record, ~10% overall
    Won in big fields

    Victorias Groom
    Well beaten at Warwick whose form stands up well here, a mix of comfortable wins and heavy defeats
    Hvy and GS
    Gets distance easily enough
    8yos are 3-57
    Not many sire progeny, 16% overall but poor on good
    Most wins in small fields

    Other
    6 winners since 1982 out of handicap - Aigle d'Or
    Four winners ridden by 7lb claimers; 5lb on board last year
    8 of last ten had OR 128-141
    Nicky Henderson & Venetia Williams worth considering, Paul Nicholls yet to win
    Poor race for Irish trained - 1 win in nearly 60yrs
    Should have won this season and be in form
    Favs have poor record
    9 winners 22/1 to 66/1, 22 winners 4/1 to 14/1

    Conclusions
    I respect My Petra's stable and so on but not her form, especially here where it reads FPP. Sandown and Cheltenham form are supposedly important here which lets Song Of Songs down. Martys Mission has taken a beating all season. Great Endeavour did OK here in November and has form over distance. Sunnyhillboy seems to run very hot or cold and is out of a poor sire for this race. Victorias Groom is another hot-cold horse who probably wants it softer. Trainer trends point towards My Petra, Atouchbetweenacara and Aigle d'Or who runs from out of the handicap by 1lb. It's a poor race for favs which is a black mark against Sunnyhillboy who would have otherwise been a strong contender I think. Great Endeavour with a small bet on My Petra, both each-way I think are my best tips here.



  4. #34

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    Kim Muir
    First Pass
    Ballabriggs, Shillingstone and Boychuk make the cut

    Second Pass
    Ballabriggs
    16%, ave season
    Doesn't enter horses at festival unless they have a chance

    Shillingstone
    13%, quiet/poor season

    Boychuk
    17%, poor season
    0/39 in festival h'cap chases

    Third pass
    Ballabriggs
    Good seasonal form
    Gd-sft
    Stays all day
    6-46 winners as 9yo
    Sire progeny have excellent festival record over 3m+
    Some big field experience

    Shillingstone
    Beat Scots Dragoon (who has gone on to score since) giving 4lb by over 4l, disappointing LTO
    Gd-GS
    Gets distance easily
    Two 8yo winners from 53 attempts
    Sire not a great stallion for NH
    Not raced in field with more than 9 runners

    Boychuk
    Fell at Ascot, 3rd here in Oct, 3rd LTO giving weight all round
    Wins on Gd-GS
    Won over distance here last year
    6-46 winners as 9yo
    10% of sire progeny win
    Has won in double digit fields, some experience of big fields

    Other
    Not Paul Nicholls-trained
    Claiming amateurs, especially Irish, have done well but not Nina Carberry
    13 winners 11st+, 9 carried 10st or less
    7-10yo
    29 winners had really decent win or placing LTO
    9 of last 10 had run 3m+ LTO
    8 of last 11 winners started 12/1+
    Only 5 winners since 1972 placed at course earlier in season
    6 winners won within 25 days of last run, other run had been off for 61+
    No Irish winner since 1983
    4/5 winners non-claiming amateurs
    Not great race for favs

    Conclusions
    Of the three I have shortlisted Ballabriggs stands well above the others and hits a lot of the other trends I have identified, even though he is Irish and likely to go of fav. But nothing ticks all the boxes and I am prepared to compromise and have a win bet on Ballabriggs



  5. #35

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    4th for Cross Keenon @ 16/1 sp i think.

    Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.


  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattw07 View Post
    4th for Cross Keenon @ 16/1 sp i think.
    Yep, I was on at 20s e/w



  7. #37

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    Nice one Mat, how did you fare in the 2:30 Southwell, got matched @ 22.00 :D

    The minute you start talking about what you're going to do if you lose, you have lost.
    Got to update this when I have time please be patient ,thank you ,Open Forum...Total Lays......?Total Backs....?Hidden Forum Total Backs....?Total Lays......?


  8. #38

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    Albertas Run made my shortlist and proved just too good today



  9. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by plater View Post
    Nice one Mat, how did you fare in the 2:30 Southwell, got matched @ 22.00 :D
    Beat me again, only managed 18s



  10. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    Beat me again, only managed 18s
    BFSP was 20.70 Must try harder mat, was that in your school report

    The minute you start talking about what you're going to do if you lose, you have lost.
    Got to update this when I have time please be patient ,thank you ,Open Forum...Total Lays......?Total Backs....?Hidden Forum Total Backs....?Total Lays......?


  11. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by plater View Post
    BFSP was 20.70 Must try harder mat, was that in your school report
    It was a late drifter then. I got matched at 14.22 and the price I took was the best available



  12. #42

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    Byrne Group Plate
    Great Endeavour with a small bet on My Petra, both each-way I think are my best tips here.


    Great Endeavour wins by a couple of lengths at 18/1 (I took 20s)



  13. #43

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    Took BFSP (26.39) and the third at 20/1 on mine Mat, but I did have 4 Bets in the 4:00

    The minute you start talking about what you're going to do if you lose, you have lost.
    Got to update this when I have time please be patient ,thank you ,Open Forum...Total Lays......?Total Backs....?Hidden Forum Total Backs....?Total Lays......?


  14. #44

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    9/1 winner in ballybriggs, rubbish odds your going downhill ;)

    Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.


  15. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattw07 View Post
    9/1 winner in ballybriggs, rubbish odds your going downhill ;)


    Yeah, rubbish day today with winners at 5/6, 18/1 and 9/1 plus a 16/1 place. I'll try harder tomorrow



  16. #46

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    Mat,

    I would just like to say very well done for your analysis on the Cheltenham festival, just goes to show how you can make good/better decisions with a bit of effort and not following the crowd blindly

    The minute you start talking about what you're going to do if you lose, you have lost.
    Got to update this when I have time please be patient ,thank you ,Open Forum...Total Lays......?Total Backs....?Hidden Forum Total Backs....?Total Lays......?


  17. #47

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    Quote Originally Posted by plater View Post
    Mat,

    I would just like to say very well done for your analysis on the Cheltenham festival, just goes to show how you can make good/better decisions with a bit of effort and not following the crowd blindly
    Thanks Alan. Today's coming up shortly...



  18. #48

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    Triumph Hurdle
    First Pass
    Shortlist: Advisor, Alaivan, Carlito Brigante

    Second Pass
    Advisor
    23%, ave season
    3/38, -18pts non-hcap hurdles at festival
    Form is nothing special
    Working well at home, fantastic chance with Ruby on board

    Alaivan
    14%, good season
    Yard may well get a winner at festival, watch for money coming in
    Better right-handed, well beaten by Carlito Brigante
    Not beaten much according to panel, too small

    Carlito Brigante
    6%, good season, poor yard for hurdlers
    Improving fast and done more than current fav
    Should be fav, beat Alaivan

    Third Pass
    Advisor
    Comfortable wins on two hurdle starts, some franking
    GS-Sft
    Won over distance
    7% progeny SR
    Wins in smaller fields but ought to still handle it
    Won left-handed and right-handed

    Alaivan
    Well beaten by Carlito Brigante
    Sft-Hvy
    Easy wins over 2m, should get extra furlong
    17% progeny winners
    Won in 13-runner field, this shouldn't be much of an issue
    Wins have come right-handed, better right-handed on flat too

    Carlito Brigante
    Twice beat Orsippus who placed in Fred Winter on Weds, beat Alaivan
    Wins on GS
    Stayed on strongly over 2m, should get extra furlong easily
    Few jumps progeny from sire but have done well
    Experience but no wins in big fields
    Has won left-handed

    Other
    Other
    11 out of last 12 winners first past post LTO - all of shortlist
    7 of last 10 winners from first 4 in betting and all since Fred Winter introduced - all of shortlist
    No one-raced winner in last 30yrs - all of shortlist 2+ runs
    Only two winners undefeated over hurdles - Advisor unbeaten
    5 won graded hurdles but only one before mid-Jan - Advisor not won graded, Alaivan won one in Feb, Carlito Brigante won G2 in Dec
    7 of last 10 winners raced on flat, 6 recording RPR of 83+ - all shortlist raced on flat, Advisor & Alaivan have right RPR
    6 won and 2 placed over middle distances (1m2f-1m6f) - Alaivan, Advisor

    Conclusions
    The Adonis is a good trial for this race but Soldatino won that and didn't make my shortlist so let's forget about that one for now. Alaivan has all sorts of negative comments in there and was comfortably held by Carlito Brigante so I can't see him winning although he has the right flat profile and that Graded win. I worry about the right-handed preference though. He's also been beaten over hurdles which seems to be a plus here. Advisor, on the other hand, is unbeaten and has won comfortably this season. He fits the flat profile and achieved the right RPR on flat but doesn't have that graded win. Carlito Brigante has those two wins over Orsippus who placed in the Fred Winter so is a decent sort. He doesn't fit the flat profile for a winner here though. My preference is for Advisor but I can see Carlito Brigante winning it too.



  19. #49

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    County Hurdle
    First Pass
    Tawaagg, Eradicate, Titi Bustillo, Tarkari

    Second Pass
    Tawaagg
    21% yard SR, great season
    0/8, -8pts in festival hcap hurdles

    Eradicate
    23%, great season
    1/50, -24pts in festival hcap hurdles

    Tito Bustillo
    23%, ave season
    3/30, +4pts in h'cap hurdles at festival

    Tarkari
    21% yard SR, great season
    0/8, -8pts in festival hcap hurdles

    Third Pass
    Tawaagg
    Bt Tarkari giving 16lb LTO, early season form well franked
    Gd-Sft
    Gets distance comfortably
    One 6yo winner from 77
    Stallion's progeny predominantly flat horses, v few jumpers
    Prev wins in big fields

    Eradicate
    Win LTO franked by 4th
    Won hdls on GS
    Distance win
    One 6yo winner from 77
    13% progeny SR
    Has won in double-figure fields

    Tito Bustillo
    Steps up to handicap company for 1st time, jumping errors here in Nov
    Gd-Sft
    Several distance wins
    Six 5yo winners from 55
    12% SR for sire's progeny
    Big field wins

    Tarkari
    Beaten by Tawaag at Leopardstown, scored off low weight LTO
    Wins on sft/hvy
    Stayed on over 2m, should get extra
    Six 5yo winners from 55
    9% progeny SR
    Won in big fields

    Other
    No winner more than 5lb out of handicap - N/A
    17/30 placed horses in last 10 years 25/1 or bigger - none of shortlist
    Paul Nicholls has had 3 winners, a second and a fourth - Tito Bustillo
    4 winners ran in Totesport Tropy finishing 2183 - none of shortlist
    7 of last 11 winners were 5yo - Tito Bustillo, Tarkari

    Conclusions
    Tito Bustillo hits a couple of those other trends at the end there, top-scored the trends but is stepping up in class here and made jumping errors on the course previously. I like Tawaagg and Eradicate on everything but age with a preference for the former due to the easy win over Tarkari. It'll be a small bet on Tawaagg each-way for me.



  20. #50

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    Albert Bartlett
    First Pass
    Restless Harry, Tell Massini, Wayward Prince, Premier Victory

    Second Pass
    Restless Harry
    Quiet yard, 6%, good season
    Trainer not used to success at this level, puntured a few reputations at Cheltenham already, satisfies trends but may want softer ground
    Mentioned by preview panel

    Tell Massini
    13%, ave season
    Fulfills all trends, only raced on soft but classy horse
    Mentioned by preview panel

    Wayward Prince
    9%, v good season
    No mention in guide
    No mention by panel

    Premier Victory
    9%, quiet ave season
    Slow learner in bumpers, better over hdls, won weakish graded events and never gone left-handed
    No mention by panel

    Third pass
    Restless Harry
    Close 2nd to Reve De Sivola (2nd in Neptune), beat well-fancied Royal Charm here in Jan
    Good ground may be too quick
    Won going away over 2m5f LTO but has tailed off over further in past so stamina concerns
    2 winning 6yos from 35
    13% winning progeny
    Not run in field this big, wins in small fields
    Left-handed figures of 21

    Tell Massini
    Two course wins beating Reve De Sivola comfortably
    Only run on Soft
    Two distance wins under rules including CD win LTO
    2 winning 6yos from 35
    Stamina from Sadler's Wells bloodline, 10% winning progeny overall
    Won 18-runner PTP but wins under rules in small fields
    111 going left-handed

    Wayward Prince
    Won well at Doncaster, beaten on run-in LTO
    Gd-Sft
    Won over 3m1f, caught on run in over same LTO
    2 winning 6yos from 35
    10% winning progeny
    Won 15-runner race

    Premier Victory
    Easily beaten LTO, won two graded events in Ireland
    All wins on soft/hvy
    Won over 3m
    2 winning 6yos from 35
    11% progeny SR
    Wins in big fields
    Never run left-handed

    Other
    4 winners had raced here twice - only Tell Massini from shortlist
    All 5 winners 1st or 2nd LTO - All of shortlist
    Alan King has good record with one winner and a third place - The Betchworth Kid
    Favs placed every year
    Winner from top 5 in market
    Bristol and Challow Hurdles good indicators here - Tell Massini, Reve De Sivola (Restless Harry close 2nd in Challow)

    Conclusions
    There is a lot to like about that Challow run from Restless Harry but using Reve De Sivola as a benchmark Tell Massini comes right into contention. He'll want it on the softer side but is a classy animal and ticks all the boxes. Yeah, Tell Massini for me



  21. #51

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    Gold Cup
    First Pass
    Cooldine, Denman, Kauto Star

    Second Pass
    Cooldine
    23%, good season
    2/27, +2.25 in festival chases
    Beat Forpadydeplasterer last year, jumped well, joint-best RSA winner for last 15yrs, not won this season which is a major black mark, no Ruby
    No mention by preview panels

    Denman
    24%, ave season
    16/98, +1.94 in festival chases
    Beat a good field in Hennessy, unseated McCoy in Aon and looked to be struggling against Niche Market and now sports noseband, massive player, deserves respect
    Value if he drifts to 5/1+ according to panel (which he now has in places) and said to be working well at home

    Kauto Star
    24%, ave season
    16/98, +1.94 in festival chases
    Outstanding chaser of last 20 years and reaching new heights, given a race by Imperial Commander in Betfair Chase, awesome in King George, doesn't fit all trends but better horse than previous winners, same 3-run plan as last year and said to be "lethal"
    Will win 8l+, good preparation but some stats against him

    Third Pass
    Cooldine
    Won RSA here last year, yet to win in three starts this season
    Prefers sft
    Stayed on in RSA but weakened over extended 3m races this season
    3 winning 8yos from 42
    9% SR for progeny
    Wins in big fields
    311P2 left-handed

    Denman
    UR at Newbury in Aon but won Hennessy comfortably giving masses of weight all round
    Gd-GS but the softer it gets the more Denman comes into the picture from stablemate
    Several wins over distance including CD
    No winning 10yo in 31
    Presenting progeny have great 3m+ record at festival, 10% overall
    Big field wins
    Only non-finishes have been left-handed but has excellent record that way round

    Kauto Star
    Given a good race by Imperial Commander in Betfair Chase then won King George at a stroll
    Gd-Sft
    Plenty of distance wins, and CD too
    No winning 10yo in 31
    Best-known of sire's progeny, not much else to go on
    Big field wins

    Other
    Good race for favs - Kauto Star
    Winner from top 3 in market - Kauto Star, Denman, Imperial Commander
    16/1 or bigger horses placed 13 times in last 10 years
    King George most reliable trial - Kauto Star

    Conclusions
    Imperial Commander is the only runner to give Kauto Star anything approaching a scare for a while but doesn't make my shortlist (although was next in line). Cooldine has beaten some good horses but has several negatives against it today including no wins this season. So it boils down to Denman v Kauto Star, unsurprisingly. Favs do well and the King George is a good indicator for this race so that's in Kauto Star's favour. Can we forgive Denman's last run? We have to if we think he can win this. It's a two horse race more or less with Kauto Star the better horse but at 5/1+ I'm going to have a smallish dabble on Denman but I will be happy to see Kauto Star win



  22. #52

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    Foxhunter
    First Pass
    Amicelli, Baby Run, Robbers Glen, Roulez Cool, Turthen, Chesnut Annie

    Second Pass
    No point looking at trainers as all small stables with few horses (OK, except Nigel Twiston-Davies)

    Third Pass
    Amicelli
    Beaten by Baby Run (twice), Robbers Glen and Southwestern already this season, off the course for a long time
    Gd-GS
    Distance wins including CD in this race two years ago
    1 11yo winner in 48
    13% progeny SR
    Big field wins

    Baby Run
    3rd here last year, beat Amicelli twice, close 2nd to Southwestern, in good form
    GS-Hvy
    No distance wins but gone close several times
    One 10yo winner in 43
    16% progeny SR
    Big field wins

    Robbers Glen
    5th here last year, won last two starts but form not franked yet
    Gd-Sft
    Won over 3m3f, stayed on last year
    One 10yo winner in 43
    7% winning progeny
    Wins mostly in smaller fields

    Roulez Cool
    Close 2nd LTO, won previous start
    Won on Gd
    First attempt at distance, easily over 3m1f though
    2 winning 7yos from 22
    8% winning progeny
    Unraced in fields of this size

    Turthen
    Won last two starts and 2nd here last year
    Won on all goings
    Gets distance
    4 winning 9yos in 41
    11% winning progeny
    Not run in such big fields

    Chesnut Annie
    Easy win LTO reversing form with Cannon Bridge, 3rd in Cheltenham hunter chase May 08
    Gd-GS
    Wins over 3m, tailing off over further
    4 winning 9yos in 41
    8% winning progeny
    Won in biggish field but not raced in field this large

    Other
    14 of last 19 winners aged 7-9 & three of five exceptions were previous winners - Roulez Cool, Turthen, Chesnut Annie, Amicelli
    Six of last 9 winners started 14/1 or greater - all of shortlist but Roulez Cool and Baby Run
    Poor race for defending champions - N/A
    Three winners had run at festival and all finished top 4 - Amicelli, Baby Run, Turthen
    Five former h'cap chasers, five from PtPs
    Recent winners have come direct from PtP prep
    8yo or younger have made frame 7/59
    1 win and 1 place for 12yos (from 44)

    Conclusions
    I know very little about hunter chases so any bet I have here will be small. I fancy Turthen, Baby Run or Chesnut Annie and would probably go for a small bet on Turthen each-way at around 18s



  23. #53

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    Martin Pipe
    Only one previous race so I have nothing to go on here so I am swerving it. Based on key trends you want a 25/1 horse called Andytown



  24. #54

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    Grand Annual
    First Pass
    You're The Top, Leo's Lucky Star

    Second Pass
    Leo's Lucky Star NR leaving You're The Top well clear on key trends

    Other
    11 of last 14 no bigger than 8/1 - You're The Top currently 8/1fav
    Last ten winners carrying no more than 10st11lb - You're The Top carrying that weight
    Form horses tend to win - YTT in good form
    Four winners prepped with a run over hurdles - YTT been chasing mostly this season
    Six winners had previous festival form - YTT never run at Festival
    Poor record for previous winner - Oh Crick not defending
    Nicky Henderson's runners have poor record here - YTT Henderson trained

    Conclusions
    You're The Top stands out and despite mixed messages on some of the trends towards the end is worth a nibble at 8/1 to try and end the festival on a high



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