mathare's Cheltenham bets

[mathare]

I have said on several occasions that I barely know one end of a horse from another which is why I swerve picking my own method bets as much as I can. But it's Festival time and I am feel ready to go and have armed myself with a wealth of stats and information. Will this translate to tipping worth anything though?

I'm by no means an expert (which is why I am in the fun bets section of the forum) and may have read some of the form incorrectly as I'm no racewatcher either. But I form opinions quite easily, regardless of whether they are right or wrong. You may well disagree with my conclusions but that's all part of racing isn't it? I'll give my thoughts on the field and why I have eliminated certain runners as well as the actual tips so you can see my thought process in action.

I'm using a several pass approach to the card. I start by applying key trends to reduce the field to a list of likely winners before looking in more depth at the trainers record and form, preview panel comments, horse's form (and how it has held up since), going preferences, age, pedigree, field sizes, market position, record in trials and so on. At each stage I am looking to drop out the horses that don't seem to fit the bill (as I see it) to hopefully end up with a nice shortlist at the end and ideally a bet that stands out.

I'm going to try and have a go at every race and see how I get on. I hope to have the full day's tips up before the start of racing each day.

Wish me luck, I think I'll need it...

[mathare]

Supreme Novices Hurdle
After applying a number of key trends I have reduced the card down to a shortlist of six horses, namely:
Dunguib, Get Me Out Of Here, Blackstairmountain, Dan Breen, Menorah, Oscar Whisky

Second pass
Dunguib
Trainer record not great overall
Mixed comments from Festival guides
Very mixed comments from preview panels

Get Me Out Of Here
Good jockey/trainer combination for the Festival
Trainer has decent record but having average season
Good comments in preview guides
Heavily tipped at preview panels

Blackstairmountain
Good jockey/trainer combination for the Festival
Trainer has good jumps record and having good season
Good comments in preview guides
Brief mention at preview panels

Dan Breen
Trainer has decent jumps record and having decent season
Good comments in preview guides
Ignored by preview panels

Menorah
Trainer has pretty good jumps record but having poorish season
Good comments in preview guides
Ignored by preview panels

Oscar Whisky
Trainer has excellent NH record and having great season
Mixed comments in preview guides
Some mention at preview panel

Two panels of experts have ignored Dan Breen and Menorah and that must be for a reason so I am dropping them for the next pass

Third Pass
Dunguib
Good form, some of which has been franked
Gets distance well
Prefers softer going (heavy)
Age bracket OK for this race
Comes from sire with good overall record but poor record at this distance at the Festival
Experienced in big fields
Winner of Royal Bond trial - winners don't usually follow up here
Winner of Deloitte trial - winners have good record in this race

Get Me Out Of Here
Scored most strongly on key trends
Good form but little of it franked
Likes GS ground
Gets distance well
Fits age profile for this race
Sire has good overall record but poor record at this distance at the Festival
Experienced in big fields

Blackstairmountain
Not much jumping form to go on
Performs on goings from good to heavy
Gets distance well
Doesn't really fit age profile, 5yos have poor record in this race
Hasn't run left-handed yet
Sire has average record
Experienced in big fields
Trainer has excellent record in non-handicap hurdles at Festival

Oscar Whisky
Decent form
Likes soft going
Gets distance well
Doesn't really fit age profile, 5yos have poor record in this race
Sire has good record
Experienced in big fields

Other
Record of favs poor in last few years but favs profitable to LSP overall
Winner has tended to come from near the front of the market but for last few years

Conclusions
I don't think the going is going to suit Dunguib who will find it too fast and there are doubts over his jumping at times. The record of favs in this race has been poor for the last few years but the winner usually comes from near the front of the market. He also won previously at the Festival whereas winners of this race tend to be Festival virgins. Blackstairmountain is inexperienced but Ruby Walsh really likes him, apparently, and the trainer has an excellent record in races like this one. Age and the question of whether he goes left-handed go against him though. Oscar Whisky's age counts against him too and has received mixed comments from the previews but the stable is in good form this season. Get Me Out Of Here ticks all the right boxes and despite the record of his sire in races such as this is my selection for this one. Dunguiob may still hack up though and at odds of 5/1 I will be going each-way just to be on the safe side.

[mathare]

Arkle Chase
First Pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Captain Cee Bee, Riverside Theatre, Sizing Europe, Somersby

Second Pass
Captain Cee Bee
Trainer record not great overall but having good season
Preview guide comments are OK/good
Preview panel comments were good

Riverside Theatre
Trainer has great record and having good season
Good preview guide comments
Mixed preview panel comments (may need faster going)

Sizing Europe
Trainer record OK, stable in good form
Preview guide comments are OK/good
Good comments from preview panel

Somersby
Decent trainer record but not so hot this season
Good preview guide comments
Mixed preview panel comments but napped (Tanya Stevenson)

I can't really eliminate any of them on that basis

Third Pass
Captain Cee Bee
Good form which has since been franked
Performs on good through to heavy
Gets distance
Very poor fit to age profile
Sire has respectable record in such races
OK in field sizes like this

Riverside Theatre
Doesn't look to have beaten much
Good to soft going OK
Gets distance
Poor fit to age profile
Sire has good jumps record but not at this distance
No wins in fields this big
Won Wayward Lad chase but winners of that trial have poor record here

Sizing Europe
Beat Osana but what else of note? (Captain Cee Bee fell)
No concerns over going
Gets distance
Poor fit to age profile of winners
Sire has good jumps record
French-bred
Happy in fields of this size

Somersby
Beat some good sorts LTO
No concerns on gd-sft
Gets distance
Poor fit to age profile
Sire has decent but not outstanding jumps record
Concerns over how he will handle field this big when chasing
Won Henry VIII Chase - winners have mixed record here

Other
Only one winning fav in last ten years
Winner has tended to come from near the front of the market (top 5)
French-bred horses show strongly

Conclusions
The winning favs stats leads me to oppose Captain Cee Bee but who to take him on with? Somersby beat some good horses LTO but has only really won in small fields. Sizing Europe hasn't really beaten much to date, nor has Riverside Theatre. Something is going to have to give and it either has to be the fit to the age profile based on my shortlist or some of the key trends are going to go by the wayside with a 7yo winning making it Sports Line or Woolcombe Folly. Nicky Henderson has an excellent non-handicap festival chase record which gives Riverside Theatre another tick. The winner is going to come from the front of the market which includes my shortlist and Sports Line and to be honest it could be any of them! I wish Sizing Europe had been tested more in chases to date but with negatives against many of the others and the odds making it a reasonable shot I'm going for Sizing Europe each-way.

[mathare]

William Hill Trophy
First Pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Bensalem, Chief Dan George, Theatrical Moment, The Package, Ogee

Second Pass
Bensalem
Trainer record godd overall but having poor season

Chief Dan George
Trainer has OK record and having quiet season

Theatrical Moment
Trainer record good, having OK season, poor record in festival hcap chases

The Package
Trainer record good, having good season, poor record in festival hcap chases

Ogee
Stable has good record in chases but having quiet season

Again, I can't really eliminate any of them on that basis

Third Pass
Bensalem
Not sure about form
Going suits
Might not get distance
Fits age profile
Sire's progeny have OK record
Field may be too big

Chief Dan George
Ran well LTO but before that?
Suited by going
Will get distance
OK fit to age profile
By reasonable sire
Not sure about field, wins in 7-10 runners

Theatrical Moment
Recent wins but nothing outstanding
Going suits
Should get distance well enough
Good fit to age profile
Sire's progeny have good jumops record
Should be OK in big field

The Package
Not sure what it has really beaten
Suited by going
Should (probably) get distance
Good fit to age profile
Sire has excellent record in staying races like this
May not handle large field

Ogee
Not sure what it has really beaten
Suited by going
Will get distance
Good fit to age profile
Sire's progeny good record
Concerns over field size

Other
Favs done well in recent years, poor before that
Winner has tended to come from near the front of the market (top 3)
Three of last four winners had won class 1 hcap chase (The Package)

Conclusions
Just two winners in the last 30 years is enough to make me want to oppose Bensalem who is squeaking favouritism at the minute. But winners tend to come from the front of the market which means The Package, Ogee and Character Building (who fell down on too many of the key trends for me). The Package's sire is by Sadler's Wells whose bloodlines produces horses that stay well so that's a plus, and he fits the age profile of winners here. He may not handle the large field so well though. The same is true of Ogee and I'm not convinced either of them have beaten that much lately. The Package gets the shout on market position and winning that class 1 handicap chase though, as well as ticking all the key trend boxes. Theatrical Moment could be worth an each-way shot at the odds (14/1)

[mathare]

Champion Hurdle
First Pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Celestial Halo, Go Native, Punjabi, Solwhit

Second Pass
Celestial Halo
Excellent overall stable record, good season, average record in festival non-handicap hurdles
Mixed preview guide comments
Mixed panel comments, including may want further

Go Native
Trainer has decent/good NH record and bang on this season
Good preview guide comments
Strongly tipped by preview panel

Punjabi
Stable in excellent overall form and do OK at festival in this type of race
Mixed preview guide comments
"Forgotten horse" according to preview panel

Solwhit
Trainer doesn't have such a good record and having poorish season
Good preview guide comments
Ignored by preview panels

If Solwhit can be ignored by the panels I can ignore him also

Third Pass
Celestial Halo
Wincanton form franked, lost to Kyber Kim but beat Medermit & Solwhit
Suited by going
Gets distance
Poor fit to age profile
Poorer going left-handed
Grandsire is Sadlers Wells whose sons produce progeny which struggle over shorter trips
OK in fields of this size

Go Native
Beat Solwhit, Binocular, Starluck
Suited by going
Gets distance
Good fit to age profile
Better going left-handed
Sire's progeny have decent jumps record
OK in fields like this
Christmas Hurdle winner - few have gone on to win this
Fighting Fifth winner

Punjabi
Lost to Medermit, Khyber Kim, Solwhit but beat Celestial Halo last festival
Suited by going
Gets distance
Good fit to age profile
Mixed results left and right handed
Sire produces progeny with poorer record than others
OK in fields like this
Champion Hurdle winner 2009 - none have defended successfully for 5 years

Other
Favs have not done well in recent years but good before that
Winner has tended to come from lower down the market in past few years, top before
Triumph Hurdle winner has good record here - Zaynar
Irish Champion Hurdle winner has decent record here - Solwhit
Irish do quite well

Conclusions
Favourites have struggled in the last few years when the winner has come from lower down the market which seemingly rules out Go Native and reduces the chances of Punjabi and Khyber Kim. Go Native has beat several of today's rivals in the past so seemingly sets the standard. Christmas Hurdle winners don't have a great record here though. Despite that, he's the obvious bet to win here. I wonder if I have overlooked Solwhit too rapidly though as he fits almost all the trends. Any of Solwhit, Punjabi and Celestial Halo could fill the frame behind Go Native.

[mathare]

Cross Country Chase
First Pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Garde Champetre, Heads Onthe Ground, Another Jewel

Second Pass
Unlike the other races, I have no idea what I am looking for here so there is no real detailed second pass.

Other
Front two in market have won each running so far
Only Garde Champetre has defended title

Conclusions
Garde Champetre will be a hot favourite for this and may well win but I am more interested in who else might fill the frame and Another Jewel hits more of the key trends than anyone else so looks a decent each-way bet at 16/1

[mathare]

There is not enough to work with for the mares' hurdle so I will be swerving that race

[Mattw07]

2nd for Get Me Out Of Here Nice Start Mat plus a mention of Menorah in your 1st post.

[mathare]

2nd for Get Me Out Of Here Nice Start Mat plus a mention of Menorah in your 1st post.

Yeah, lost by a head and was made to swerve out of Menorah's way (at least I think it was Menorah) approaching one of the final flights so might have got home ahead but for that. Decent start though

[mathare]

Arkle Chase
I'm going for Sizing Europe each-way.

This is easy!

[lowe1]

This is easy!

Well done Mat looks like both of us are having a good festival even though its only two races in

[mathare]

A few more yards and The Package would have got up there too. So close...

[plater]

I hope you backed the winner on mine Mat ???????

[Godspot]

A few more yards and The Package would have got up there too. So close...

Unlucky there Mat!

I got a lsp for the whole meet after that race! Love it!

[mathare]

I hope you backed the winner on mine Mat ???????

:splapme

I really didn't fancy it to do that well. Shows what I know doesn't it?

[Win2Win]

I fancy sheep more than horses but that's another story :wink

[mathare]

A winner at 6/1 in Sizing Europe plus two beaten a head at 9/2 in The Package and Get Me Out of here. Theatrical Moment was disappointing, Go Native clobbered one of the fences and wasn't the same after that it seemed but Another Jewel managed to squeak a place at 16/1. I make that +6.63pts to SP so not a bad return

[mathare]

NH Chase Challenge Cup
First pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Fabalu, Massasoit, Mobaasher, Poker De Sivola and Synchronised

Second Pass
Fabalu
Stable having OK season, 16% winners
Trainer doesn't run much at festival unless it has a chance

Massasoit
Yard having average season, 24% winners
Trainer has good non-handicap chase festival record

Mobaasher
Yard average 17% winners but having poor season
Trainer has poor festival record outside handicaps

Poker De Sivola
13% winners on average but having good season
Trainer has low SR in non-h'cap chases at festival but has scored with big-priced winner

Synchronised
17% winners, below average season
Trainer has good SR and v. profitable in festival non-h'cap chases

Eliminate Mobaasher on that basis

Third Pass
Fabalu
Won easily LTO, beaten much of note?
Likes plenty of cut in the ground
Won over 3m, untested over further
Good fit to age profile
Sire produces good stamina, progeny win ~10%
Wins under rules have come in smaller fields

Massasoit
Twice 2nd to Burton Port which is no disgrace, Fakenham form franked
Likes it soft
Won over 3m, kept on well, untested over further
Good fit to age profile
11% winners by sire progeny
Won hurdle and bumper in biggish fields but other wins in small fields

Poker De Sivola
Poor this season, didn't beat much at Catterick
Soft or good-soft
Staying on when won 3m2f but weakened over 4m at Kelso
Great fit to age profile
~16% sire progeny winners
Chase wins in small fields, won in big hurdle fields

Synchronised
Chepstow & Fontwell form held up well
Soft or heavy
Running on when winning over 3m, untested over further
Great fit to age profile
Sadler's wells sire - great stamina, 14% progeny winners
Hampered in big field previously, wins come in smaller fields

Other
Poor for favs
Winner can come from almost anywhere in market
Paul Nicholls has never won race - Massasoit

Conclusions
Is Massasoit Paul Nicholls' best ever chance of winning this race? I can't see it. Hmmm. Fabalu hasn't beaten much and may not get the softer going he wants plus there are stamina uncertainties there. Massasoit has decent enough form behind Burton Port and kept on well over 3m so may get distance although not won a chase in a big field. Poker De Sivola has been poor this season and weakened over 4m previously. Synchronised would have got the nod but is now a non-runner so Massasoit each-way is my pick despite the earlier doubts.

[mathare]

Neptune Novices Hurdle
First Pass
The key trends leave us with a shortlist of: Peddlers Cross, Quel Esprit, Rite Of Passage, Summit Meeting

Second Pass
Peddlers Cross
13% yard winners, good season
Trainer doesn't run anything at festival unless it has a chance
Rated highly by guide, lacks experience
No mention by preview panel

Quel Esprit
21% winners on average, v good season
Good festival record in non-handicap hurdles for trainer
Has perfect profile for this but may be better in Albert Bartlett over 3m
Mentioned by panel
Good jockey/trainer combo for festival

Rite Of Passage
19% winners, v good season
High class, inexperienced, unimpressive jumping according to guide
Mentioned by panel

Summit Meeting
11% winners, poor season
Pricewise ante-post selection @ 33/1, good general comments in guide
No mention by preview panel

I'd eliminate Summit meeting here but for the Pricewise ante-post bet

Third Pass
Peddlers Cross
Haydock form seems to have held up
Wants soft
Untried over more than 2m1f
Ok fit to age profile
Sire's progeny have good record over distance & reasonable overall record
Wins under rules in smaller fields

Quel Esprit
Maiden form franked but beaten odds-on LTO by Coole River who landed G2 novice hdl later
Wins all come on sft-hvy
Wins over 2m4f and 3m
Ideal fit to age profile
Insufficient number of runs to tell how progeny turn out but looks good
Won maiden hurdle in similar size field

Rite Of Passage
3rd to Dunguib in bumper here last year, beat well-rated Healys Bar LTO
Wins over sft-hvy
Won unextended over 2m4f, not tested over further
Ideal fit to age profile
Progeny better on fast/heavy going
Won maiden in similar size field

Summit Meeting
Better than Rite of Passage on form through Wilde Wit Pleasure, form early this season franked, what happened at Navan?
Wins on heavy mostly
Kept on over 2m4f but tailed off and well beaten over same distance next time out
Ok fit to age profile
Stamina from Sadler's Wells, 14%
Wins in similar field sizes

Other
Last year first winning for for 7 years, previously good race for favs
Winner tends to be top 4 in betting
Only two winners had previous festival experience (both in bumper)

Conclusions
There are stamina doubts about Peddlers Cross as he's untested over distance. Quel Esprit was beaten by a good'un LTO but wants more give underfoot. Rite of Passage has festival experience which tends to be a negative and may want it softer than it is at present. Summit Meeting holds Rite of Passage on collateral form but wants it heavy. Summit Meeting is also probably a bit too long in the betting and was well beaten in one of the key trials for this race so can be ruled out. It's between Rite of Passage and Quel Esprit and my preference is for the latter due to trainer's record here, better jumping and being sure to get the trip.

[mathare]

RSA Chase
First Pass
After the key trends we have: Burton Port, Citizen Vic, Diamond Harry and Weapon's Amnesty.

No Long Run or Punchestowns, hmm. Let's roll with it for now and see how we get on...

Second Pass
Burton Port
23% average winners, excellent season for yard
Stable have good record in non-handicap chases at festival
Doesn't deserve to be big odds, likely to be kept back for Aintree according to guide
Not as good as stablemates according to panel

Citizen Vic
23%, excellent season for stable
Yard have low SR but profitable in festival chases
Guide suggests profile is good fit, trainer has good record
No mention by panel

Diamond Harry
15%, excellent but relatively quiet season for trainer
Needs to improve jumping, inexperienced (guide)
2nd choice if Punchestowns not quite fit (panel)

Weapon's Amnesty
13%, stable having poor season
Guide reckons has a good engine, 2m5f too short, needs to jump better
Mentioned by panel, yard out of form

3rd Pass
Burton Port
Well held by Diamond Harry on last hurdle start, won some decent small field chases
Likes some cut in the ground
Gets 3m OK
No 6yo winners of this race
11% progeny winners
Chase wins all in small fields
Won Reynoldstown trial - good for placing here

Citizen Vic
Slow start to chasing career, beat Weapon's Amnesty at Leopardstown
All wins on sft-hvy
Untried over 3m, kept on well over 2m5f
Ideal fit to age profile
Stamina from Sadler's Wells bloodline but poor progeny record in chases
Should handle field size OK
Won Dr PJ Moriarty trial - winners not got great record here

Diamond Harry
Beat Burton Port over hurdles, won decent class chases but small fields
Likes cut in ground, wins over GS-hvy
Won over 3m
Ideal fit to age profile
13% progeny winners
Chase wins in small fields

Weapon's Amnesty
A shd second in G1, 2nd to Citizen Vic at Leopardstown
Likes cut in ground, wins over GS-hvy
Won over 3m
Ideal fit to age profile
Progeny have good chase record,
Will handle field size
Beaten in two trials

Other
Graded win an advantage recently
Unplaced efforts prior to this rare, only Denman unbeaten though
Excellent festival form an advantage (Diamond Harry, Weapon's Amnesty)
No Feltham winner has gone on to win this (Long Run)

Conclusions
Punchestowns is reckoned to be better than Long Run, who would be the first Feltham winner to follow up here but is he (Punchestowns) fit? Citizen Vic beat Weapon's Amnesty at Leopardstown but is untried over 3m. Weapon's Amnesty has a distance win under his belt but was held in some of the trials. Diamond Harry beat Burton Port over hurdles but can he do the same over fences? Age is against Burton port but he could well place based on his Reynoldstown showing. This has been one for the favs recently so I could be gunning for second behind Punchestowns/Long run but I fancy Diamond Harry each-way to make the frame at least.

[mathare]

Queen Mother Champion Chase
First Pass
Master Minded is so far ahead of the others on the key trends it is barely worth looking elsewhere.

Other
Good race for favs
Only one horse has done the hat-trick before (Badsworth Boy)

Conclusions
The most reliable trials seem to be the Game Spirit, Tingle Creek along with last year's Champion Chase and Arkle. So Master Minded, Twist Magic, Master Minded and Forpadydeplasterer respectively. It's really hard to see beyond Master Minded though and I really hope he does it.

[Win2Win]

Queen Mother Champion Chase
First Pass
Master Minded is so far ahead of the others on the key trends it is barely worth looking elsewhere.

Probably have my biggest bet of the day on that one.

[mathare]

Coral Cup
First Pass
We're left with Lake Legend, Sir Harry Ormesher, Racing Demon, Silk Affair and Gold Award after the key trends.

Second Pass
Lake Legend
17% ave SR, poor season for stable
Poor h'cap hurdle festival record for yard

Sir Harry Ormesher
17% ave SR, poor season though
Yard has poor h'cap hurdle festival record

Racing Demon
7% SR, trainer having decent but quiet season

Silk Affair
15% SR, trainer having good but quiet season

Gold Award
23%, excellent season by trainer
Yard has poor h'cap hurdle festival record

Third Pass
Lake Legend
LTO form franked
Gd-GS
Won over distance LTO
Good fit to age profile
14% progeny winners
Won in 19 runner race LTO

Sir Harry Ormesher
Lightly raced this season, Doncaster form franked somewhat
Gd-GS
Stayed on over 2m4f, weakened over 2m5f but that was 18 months ago
Good fit to age profile
13% progeny winners
Won in 18 runner race LTO

Racing Demon
Not won for ages
Gd-Sft
Wins over 2m5f but 3yrs ago
Too old
Sire's progeny have good record in hurdles like this one
Hasn't won in big field for years

Silk Affair
Hasn't won this season & well beaten in worse fields
Wins over GS-hvy
Not really shown promise over distance, wins over shorter
Too young
Should have stamins from Sadler's Wells but little evidence, 8% progeny winners
Won in 22 runner field LTO

Gold Award
Didn't beat much at Ffos Las, behind City Theatre LTO at Newbury
Gd-Sft
Ran on well over 2m4f, untried over further
Good fit to age profile
12% progeny winners
Won 14 runner race, well down in big bumper field 08 festival

Other
Poor race for favs/joint-favs
Winner could be anywhere in market, top 6 recent years

Conclusions
Quantitativeeasing and Deutschland head the market and neither made the shortlist so we're doing well swerving the favs given their record in this one. Racing Demon looks pretty easy to discount and I don't think Silk Affair can win this either. Lake Legend was clear on the key trends and ticks more of the boxes on further examination than the others so is my each-way tip here and is trading around 20s at present.

[mathare]

Fred Winter
First Pass
After the key trends we reduce the field to: Fin Vin De Leu, Diktalina, Sanctuaire, Doctor Deejay, Ned Of The Hill, Hunterview.

Fin Vin De Leu
16%, ave season
V poor festival record

Diktalina
12%, ave season

Sanctuaire
23%, ave season
Decent SR, profitable in festival h'cap hurdles

Doctor Deejay
21%, good season
Few runners no winners in festival h'cap hurdles

Ned Of The Hill
Insufficient runners to gauge yard form

Hunterview
13%, good season
1 from 30 in festival h'cap hurdles but good record in race

Diktalina and Ned Of The Hill are dropped at this stage. Hunterview would have gone too but for the fact that David Pipe has a great record in this race and clearly knows what it takes to do well in it.

Third Pass
Fin Vin De Leu
Comfortable win LTO, lost to Stars Du Granits on hurdle debut
Only really had hvy in NH
Gets distance well
10-11% progeny winners
Inexperienced in big fields

Sanctuaire
Easy enough LTO but not much form to go on
Only run on sft-vsft
Gets distance
~12% progeny winners
Raced in big fields, won 13 runner race

Doctor Deejay
Maiden form holds up, ran close in Gr3
Wins on hvy, not experienced much faster
Keeps on over 2m
Progeny like it softer, ~8%
Run close in big hurdle fields

Hunterview
Ran Orzare (who looks useful) close on hurdling debut, disappointing at Plumpton
Likes soft (GS maybe)
Gets distance well
Too few progeny from sire to be meaningful
Raced and won in double-digit fields

Other
Only one single-figure SP winner
Outright favs do poorly

Conclusions
The poor favs record does for Sanctuaire (who Paul Nicholls really fancies) and Notus De La Tour (who didn't make my shortlist). Hunterview is also trading at single figures which is a negative there. I still like Hunterview on form though and would also have a small bet on Doctor Deejay each-way at a decent price (currently 25/1).

[mathare]

Champion Bumper
First Pass
We're left with Bubbly Bruce, Dare Me, Shannon Spirit and Tavern Times after the key trends have done their stuff. No Willie Mullins or Dermot Weld runners - interesting.

Second Pass
Bubbly Bruce
Good form but quiet yard

Dare Me
13%, good season
0/6 in bumper at festival though

Shannon Spirit
Good form but quiet yard

Tavern Times
11%, good season

Third Pass
Bubbly Bruce
3rd to Shannon Spirit on debut, win LTO franked recently
Sft only
No distance worries
Good fit to age profile
Not by great NH sire
Has raced in big bumper fields

Dare Me
Off the course for a good while before win LTO, not beaten much of note
Gd-GS
No distance worries
Good fit to age profile
By good jumps sire
Won in big bumper fields

Shannon Spirit
Only one run (won), beat Bubbly Bruce
Sft
No distance worries
Good fit to age profile
Fairly poor sire progeny record in NH
Won big bumper field LTO

Tavern Times
Fairyhouse win well franked
Gd
No distance worries
Good fit to age profile
Sire's progeny have decent jumps record
Won 16-runner bumper LTO

Other
Irish win this one
17 winners all by different stallions - Presenting (Tavern Times) and Bob Back (Dare Me) progeny already won
6 of last 7 had run at least 3 times but 3 had won only previou start
Favs place or unplaced, rarely win
Winner from top 5 or 6 in market usually

Conclusions
I really like Tavern Times on what I have seen and he top-scored the key trends too. A win in a big bumper field that has been franked since and on good ground too. The age is right as is the pedigree. But Dunguib won for Presenting last year and each winner has been by a different stallion. He also falls down on the experience trend but did at least win his only start. He's in the right sort of area of the betting market to do well here though. Shannon Spirit would probably be my second choice and at a decent price too.

[mathare]

Rubbish yesterday, although I haven't had chance to properly tot up how bad.

[mathare]

Jewson
First Pass
Shortlist is Nicanor, The Midnight Club, Tanks For That, King's Forest

Second Pass
Nicanor
15%, ave-good season
3/101 before this year's festival

The Midnight Club
21%, v good season
Few runners in h'cap chases at the festival

Tanks For That
23%, v good season
Good record in festival h'cap chases

King's Forest
13%, ave-good season

Third pass
Nicanor
Runner-up to a couple of decent-looking sorts early in season, LTO win franked, beat Denman here 4yrs ago
Only chase win on hvy, prev wins on Gd/Sft
Won over distance in Supreme Novices 4yrs ago, tiring towards end of 2m4f chase LTO
9yo's are 0-9 in this race
14% progeny win SR
Won hurdles in similar sized fields

The Midnight Club
Clonmel form somwhat franked, fell early at Limerick
Wins over heavy, wants give in ground
Stayed on well 2m4f chase, wins over distance and further in hurdles
9yo's are 0-9 in this race
Sire's progeny have decent festival record, ~10% overall
All wins in double-digit fields

Tanks For That
Comfortably beat Inthejungle who won NTO, close up with You're The Top LTO
Wins on GS, prob doesn't want softer
Stamina doubts, weakening over prev attempts at trip
7yo's are 4-41 in race
9% progeny SR
Little experience in big fields

King's Forest
Within 3l of classy Ogee off equal weights at Bangor, but well beaten NTO
Wants Gd-GS
Comfortable over distance at Bangor
No 6yo wins in 15 attempts
~8% SR for progeny
Little experience in big fields

Other
Two winners placed in Gr2 nov chase - none on shortlist
Two had hurdle RPR in mid-140s, three in low 120s - Tanks For That
4/5 fallen at least once when chasing - The Midnight Club
Four winners from top 3 in market - none of shortlist (Rivaliste, The Hollinwell, China Rock - only The Hollinwell even close on key trends)

Conclusions
The first two key trends don't really catch any of the field this year which throws that out the window really and puts things into disarray. Those trends were carrying no more than 10st12lb and OR of 123-133. Oh well. Nicanor looks promising on what I have seen. The Midnight Club may find it too fast underfoot, Tanks For That has stamina doubts and King's Forest may be too young to take this. The Midnight Club has fallen previously which is seen as a plus on the trends. But winners come from the head of the market and only The Hollinwell even comes close to being on my radar. Looks to have decent form, going and distance are suitable but poor record for stallion's progeny and little experience in big fields. If anything I'd have a small each-way bet on Nicanor but I could just as easily leave this one alone.

[mathare]

Pertemps Final
First Pass
This leaves us: Smoking Aces, Fredo, Chamirey, Rocco's Hall, Cross Kennon

Second Pass
Smoking Aces
10%, poor season
3/19 at festival

Fredo
9%, v good season

Chamirey
17%, poor season
0/35 in h'cap hurdles at festival

Rocco's Hall
14%, good season
Yard may well strike at festival, watch for money coming in

Cross Kennon
7%, good season

Third Pass
Smoking Aces
Won or run close in all starts this season, not sure what he has beaten
Wins on soft, all runs on sft-hvy
Won over 2m4f LTO staying on but untried over 3m
6yo's are 4-50
Old Vic progeny have good festival hurdles record, ~11% overall
Wins in double-figure fields

Fredo
Well beaten on seasonal debut, won comfortably LTO but struggled before
Gd-GS-Sft
Won over 3m+ LTO so gets distance
6yo's are 4-50
12% progeny SR
Wins in 10+ runner fields, placed in big fields

Chamirey
Well beaten by Tell Massini who went on to land Gr2, Uttox form franked, beat Tricky Trickster, lost to Fredo LTO
Wins on soft, placed on gd, most experience on sft-vsft
Gets distance well
Only 1 winning 7yo from 63
~16% progeny SR with better on sft/hvy
Wins in small fields, little experience in fields with more than 10 runners

Rocco's Hall
Yet to win this season, well beaten LTO
Sft w/ experience on hvy
Two wins over 3m but 2 years ago
2-44 for 8yo
Sadler's Hall progeny have excellent festival hurdles record
Wins in big fields

Cross Kennon
Won last 4 starts, some franking of last winning form
Wins over gd to hvy
Several wins over 3m+
6yo's are 4-50
~10% winning progeny
Plenty of big field wins

Other
Four winners had run at festival before, none with any real success - none of shortlist have festival experience
Three Irish winners all unplaced in Leopardstown qualifier - Prince Erik, Conclave, Boulavogue all placed there
Four previous winners have tried to defend title, all unplaced
Two novice winners
Last ten winners have Sadler's Wells in pedigree

Conclusions
On my form reading I really fancy Fredo or Cross Kennon but I can't ignore some strong trends including that Sadler's Well bloodline stat which brings Smoking Aces and Rocco's Hall back into it. I don't get Rocco's Hall form (but I am no form reader I admit) and I think he wants more cut in the ground as does Smoking Aces who may not get the trip. Cross Kennon each-way would be my main bet with a smaller bet on Smoking Aces e/w too.

[mathare]

Ryanair Chase
First Pass
Shortlist: Albertas Run (just), Poquelin, Tranquil Sea

Second Pass
Albertas Run
17%, ave-poor season
6/32, +71pts
Dual course winner, former King George runner-up, likes decent ground
No mention by preview panels

Poquelin
24%, ave season
16/98, +1.94pts
Deserves place at head of market, likes faster ground
Paul Nicholls rates this as one of his best chances this year

Tranquil Sea
11%, good season
May well strike at festival, watch for money coming in
Big player when mud flying, had plenty in hand over Poquelin in Nov
Strong fancy for Paddy Power

Third Pass
Albertas Run
Beat Voy Per Ustedes and Schindlers Hunt at Ascot in Nov but 11l behind Deep Purple NTO, well behind Barbers Ship in King George so others preferred on form
Wins on Gd-GS
No wins over 2m5f but has won over further and showed speed over 2m3f LTO
1-16 winning 9yos
Accordion progeny have good festival chase record, 12% overall
Will handle field size well

Poquelin
Beaten by Tranquil Sea in Paddy Power Gold Cup here conceding 2lb, bounced back to beat decent field in Boylesports Gold Cup over course
Wins on GF-Sft
Won over 2m5f LTO comfortably
Zero 7yo winners in 5 attempts
Not many sire progeny to base anything on but look decent
Won in several similar field sizes

Tranquil Sea
Beat Poquelin here in Nov and Scotsirish at Leopardstown
Wants sft-hvy
Won over C&D
One 8yo winner from 8
Poor progeny record for Sea Raven
Has won in big fields

Other
Four beaten favs all won Gr1 chase LTO - Poquelin fav but won Gr3 LTO

Conclusions
It's Poquelin all the way I think. Were it a bit softer underfoot I may fancy Tranquil Sea to turn him over but not today.

[Mattw07]

Good Luck for today Mat.

Was hoping you'd mention The Hollinwell in the Jewson as thats where my money is, by the looks of it youve completely skipped over the top of the Market, going for the big odds today!! :)