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Thread: flat 2010

  1. #1

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    flat 2010

    Well people next week it starts again,any thoughts on this coming turf flat season,new approaches,targets,lessons learnt from last season.

    All would make interesting reading.



  2. #2

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    It occurred to me last week when I was analysing form ahead of Cheltenham that it has to be easier to method bet on the flat as so often I was checking to see whether a runner's winning form had been franked only to see the horses it beat pulled up/unseated/fell in races after that making it nigh on impossible to judge the form (at least in my eyes). On the flat you only really get horses pulling up so nags are more likely to finish races allowing form to be more readily assessed. This is just a theory though and I don't plan to test it this summer as I have far too much other stuff on.



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    flat 2010

    Would be interesting to read other members views on your above comment,i would not disagree,my own figs show on balance better SR jumping but higher ROI flat.

    I think so many have had a hard time this jumps because of the weather,not just the lost meetings but possibly form upsets when they resumed racing as a result of the former.

    I would like to ask do any other members prefer the flat and why.My self i have no preference and for the past few years have continued with the jumps until at least the end of April.

    The point you make about it being harder to judge the form of a horse who fell or pulled up etc ,is just another of the many problems we face when analysing a race,but although they all finish i find it can be just as difficult sometimes on the flat,during the past couple of years i have taken to replaying any race of interest and each time following just one of the runners throughout the race,this may make your eyes hurt but can be most informative on occassions.I have a great deal of respect for the professional race readers but sometimes there are occurrences which even they miss.



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    Think I'll treat myself to a copy of Steve Taplin's 2yo's of 2010 as soon as it becomes available in the hope that it still has all those trainer & sire statistics with median timeform ratings - been 9 years since I did but most handy.

    Be interesting to see how the Michael Owen & Tom Dascombe set-up gets on.

    & talking of horses that Pull Up - if you ever happen to notice:

    [a little excerpt from the N Mordin systems file:

    "Note any horse aged less than 10 that Pulls Up in a non-Novice Grade One Chase on ‘soft or heavy ground.’ Won 17 of 67 bets for £56 LSP on their next three starts."

    Recent Qualifiers: Air Force One (Grand National could be his 2nd run - interesting!), Albertas Run (won prior to Cheltenham), Ballistraw (recently won a hunter chase in Ireland 11/2) & Imperial Commander. Yesterday was his 3rd qualifying run, so I think it still works!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  5. #5

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    2YO races in the first 3 months are pretty easy to make money out of method wise, as it is the same trainers year after year that have them ready :)

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  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    "Note any horse aged less than 10 that Pulls Up in a non-Novice Grade One Chase on ‘soft or heavy ground.’ Won 17 of 67 bets for £56 LSP on their next three starts."
    The statistician in me says that's not a big enough sample to be meaningful, and one big winner could have thrown that profit figure right out. That's partly why I don't like trying to find my own method bets in horse racing, one is always forced to work with small samples that can be easily distorted by one or two outliers making the true picture much harder to see. Give me a sport like football where teams play more regularly and return year after year after year



  7. #7

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    flat 2010

    Hi GS i gave up trying to profit from 2yo races years ago.i have a friend who specialises in them and makes it pay i could back his selections but cannot bring myself to risk capital in this area.

    I agree it will be fascinating to watch the progress of michael owens project,i no little about football,but watched a video concerning the building of the stables and he appears totally dedicated to making a success of things,a lot of pressure for the trainer,remember Michael Dickinson.Also interesting that michaels co partner is one of the founders of BF,hope no conflict of interest there.Or simular outcome as between Dickinson/Sangster who financed the project from his football pools empire.

    Wish you and all members a profitable season.



  8. #8

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    flat 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    The statistician in me says that's not a big enough sample to be meaningful
    Agree and the form analyst in me says there is no real racing logic involved,if he stipulated back them next time when running on good ground i guess i could just about see some logic, but also why just this particular type of race and horse,sounds like back fitting to me.



  9. #9

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    flat 2010

    This will be my 9th flat season using the same approach,over the years small changes have been made,which although based on reviews of past results where always paper proofed for at least a year via future results before implementing.Below are some.

    Will back sel in the 1-1 > 2/1 price range.

    Will give more emphasis to recent form.

    Will not back 3yo against older horses.

    Will be more flexible concerning suitability of dist course going

    Will no longer back FTO sel.

    On a more personal level

    Will not get involved with winning/losing months but rather only consider YTD.

    Will not give myself so much stick over losers which are backed for the same good reasons as the winners and the overal profit is there.

    I must confess that the above two while for me making good sense,i am /will find it difficult to follow.

    For the past eight flat seasons i have made what most would consider good profits,and i have no reasons to belive that this year will be any different,but unfortunately in this bussiness hard work discipline and past results are no guarantee of future profit,so i approach my 9th season feeling a combination of confidence and fear,at least it wont get boring.



  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post

    Will not back 3yo against older horses.
    It's early days yet I know but I got a sneaky feeling we're in for an interesting year considering:

    3yo’s vs their Elders!

    At Leopardstown on Guineas Trial day, the fastest race on the card was won by a 3yo, Baglioni(Ire), running against older horses.

    At Kempton(aw) last week, joint fastest race was run by Mark Johnston’s 3yo, Duellist, (rated 81 & carrying 9-0), who clocked a time in a h’cap exact as the 4yo Shamwari Lodge(Ire), (rated 105 & carryiong 8-12) did in a Listed race for older horses.

    At Dundalk the same day, Ed Lynam’s, 3yo Sole Power, had 4 older horses officially rated higher than himself held when running easily the time of the meet & a full second below standard.

    At Musselbrough a day later, Bryan Smart’s 3yo filly, Esuvia(Ire), clocked time of the meet in a 3yo (0-73) while there was 3 (0-85)’s for older horses on the card.

    & I’m not the only one who noted there were a lot more than usual 2yo Course Records broken last year.

    17 Juvenile Crse Recs in 09

    3 @ York, 1 @ Newmarket, 1 @ Newbury, 1 @ Musselbrough, 1 @ Lingfield, 1 @ Leicester, 1 @ Haydock 1, @ Hamilton, along with the All Aged like Arcano @ Deauville too, 1 @ Folkstone,

    & 4 @ Doncaster but that course has not been going very long & 1 @ Ascot similar story there too.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  11. #11

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    An opportune post GS as i had my first flat bet today run fairly well to finish 4th at 6/1,but disappointing in the respect that i really rated its chance.

    I hope we can revitalise this thread as it will be interesting if members post on thier progress as the season develops.



  12. #12

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    My strike rates are down quite a few percent over the past couple of months, usually a correction would have come along by now but I'm still waiting. As I have mentioned in another post the hard winters effect on results should really have come to an end now. Every now and again some oddball results can happen for no apparent reason, I am well placed to ride out a storm but am monitoring everything at the moment rather nervously and cautiously due to my flat and NH results both being under performing and moving slightly outside the expected standard deviation.



  13. #13

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    Hi BM i am a great believer in record keeping and what you can learn from it,but i guess the most important lesson is that past results can only ever be treated as a possible guide to the future,and it is unrealistic to expect uniformity in results for particular months or even years.

    Suffering disappointments is part of the price we pay for achieving long term profits in an area where many try but few succeed,there is no easy money and the above is part of the earning.



  14. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi BM i am a great believer in record keeping and what you can learn from it,but i guess the most important lesson is that past results can only ever be treated as a possible guide to the future,and it is unrealistic to expect uniformity in results for particular months or even years.
    Hi Mick, that Hollow Green fitted quite nicely into my scheme of things yesterday but does your record keeping involve noting which courses you do best at? I only say that because last year a friend of mine just mentioned, it was a day there was racing at Ayr & Yarmouth, that he always did well at Ayr but could hardly ever pick anything at Yarmouth. I thought it an interesting comment went home & swung the spreadsheet around a bit & sure enough - I am twice as likely to hit a winner with horses with similar profiles as Hollow Green at Ayr than I am at Yarmouth.

    Other than that I thought Ryan Moore & K Fallon were both near their riding weights looking dangerous & best to watch....

    Did note that Newmarket trainers won half the races at the course with significant Market Movers. One to note especially would be M Bell's 3yo Horseradish, ran a faster time than anything else.

    Also noted young William Buick had another, 'fresh' winner, for another stable besides Gosden's. He's beginning to remind me of Jason Weaver on the AW some years ago - whenever he sat on a horse that hadn't run for some time, worth monitoring closely. I suppose it comes down to having a good agent.

    Cracking cards today & I note that Mordin ante-post for the Derby, Don Carlos, as mentioned before, is set to run.... H Cecil's Timepiece is favourite for the Oaks, a top-notch card full of useful yardsticks...

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  15. #15

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    flat 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    but does your record keeping involve noting which courses you do best at?
    Hi GS you raise an interesting point i have the information recorded for the past 8 yrs but have never collated the figs for this so will have a look.

    I do have fav courses but this is not really down to profitability but rather part of analise.



  16. #16

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    I generally don't method bet because I don't really follow racing. I am a system bettor so to me horse races are just investment opportunities. I only care who wins in terms of my personal profit/loss, not really following or cheering on any horse/jockey/trainer.

    Because of all that I don't really take much notice of whether it's flat or NH that provides the bulk of my profits but I suspect it's the former. I run a portfolio of 10 flat systems, 9 NH systems and 8 mixed code systems for the horses. Of those, 6 of the flat systems are in profit (with another yet to get started), 7 of the mixed systems are in profit but NONE of the NH systems are in the black. Not a single one of them and it's a mix of backs and lays. Some are not far into the red this year but they are still in the red all the same.

    Take some of today's bets for example. Black Jack Blues at Stratford was a selection on two of my systems. It fell when tracking the winner and should really have won that race had it stayed on its feet. That was a 1/8 shot. Cokcney Trucker in the second at Ascot, another odds-on selection at 8/11, made a mistake at the first, another at the 4th when tracking the winner and fell at the next. If he stays on his feet he probably wins too. OK, these results going the other way wouldn't have changed my fortunes much today but it all helps. Actually, had Black Jack Blues won I wouldn't have had a great return on the backs but at least the lay in that race (Putney Bridge) wouldn't have won. Had Chilbury Hill not unseated his jockey in the 3.55 it might have given the NHPM selection in that race a fight towards the end too and that may have saved me a few quid too.

    I am sick of short-priced fancies falling or unseating their rider. At least with the flat you know that if the horse gets to the front and is travelling well then it stands a good chance of winning. You don't need to worry about getting a jump wrong. I often wonder if any horse is really deserving of odds as short as 1/8 in a National Hunt race when there are risks associated with every jump. The flat season can't kick fully into gear soon enough for me now.



  17. #17

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    flat 2010

    Hi matt you raise some interesting points in your above post,i dont feel it will serve any purpose to get into debate concerning system verses method betting there are positives and negatives in both.

    Flat results against jumps is a topic worth discussing,for my self in money terms there is no significant difference,with jumpers providing higher SR,and the flat selections prouducing slightly better ROI.

    I now tend to extend my jumps season to 8 months ie sept to april inc,
    and my flat turf 7 months april to oct inc,but i do not have a preference for either,and i would be most interested to read other members views concerning this.

    With regards to betting at odds on flat or jumps this is an area where i have never been able to bring myself to speculate,under either code there is just to much which can go wrong in a race IMO.

    But again i would be interested in members views on this,do any actually target odds on selections.Years ago they used to be referred to as professionals bets,even these days some of the biggest players advocate betting at odds on.



  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi matt you raise some interesting points in your above post,i dont feel it will serve any purpose to get into debate concerning system verses method betting there are positives and negatives in both..
    No need, method betting is systematic, if it wasn't it would be random. They both follow rules accepted by the user, the only difference being is that one you bet on 100% regardless as the stake is controlled by the system, the other the stake is flexible if you back it at all.

    I usually do much better on the NH than flat as the form is more reliable. Most form for the first 6 weeks of the flat can be random, especially with changes in going.

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  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by mathare View Post
    Had Chilbury Hill not unseated his jockey in the 3.55 it might have given the NHPM selection in that race a fight towards the end too and that may have saved me a few quid too.

    I am sick of short-priced fancies falling or unseating their rider. At least with the flat you know that if the horse gets to the front and is travelling well then it stands a good chance of winning. You don't need to worry about getting a jump wrong. I often wonder if any horse is really deserving of odds as short as 1/8 in a National Hunt race when there are risks associated with every jump.
    Does it still hold true that odds on shots only win 40% of the time?

    I think you're right there about the 1/8, I was thinking the same about Bangkok Pete today

    but you could probably save yourself a few quid by refraining from taking short prices at tracks that produce the biggest percentage of fallers like:

    Aintree, Ayr, Doncaster, Kempton, Lingfield and Wincanton. thanks to N Mordin

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  20. #20

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    flat 2010

    From time to time i like to re examine my thoughts and perceptions on different aspects of form,to challenge long held beliefs and see if improvements can be made.

    The current form topic being lauded by the press is the importance of going suitability,nothing new there,but worth having a look at.Perhaps the easiest way around this problem using system or method is to stipulate that any selection must have already won on to days going,this is a rule i followed myself,but in recent years have learnt to be more flexible.

    There is a case for discrediting the above,as an example today the ground is firm your selection has won 3 races one on firm the other two on soft.The firm ground win was all out in a low class race,the soft ground wins where by 2lens in better class races.There is an obvious negative conclusion to be drawn concerning today's firm ground.

    If you use ratings to assess individual performance then frequently a horses best rating will be in defeat,so was he beaten because of different going or does the fact that he recorded a career best fig show that he does act on the ground.

    Then we have the situation whereby the horse has never encountered a particular type of going before,one possibility here is to consider breeding stats.

    Confused well you should be,my way is to use a combination of the above to try and reach a correct decision,but it is seldom an easy call and you can only ever judge your efforts on balance.

    Frequently when the going is given as a reason for a form upset the media are only wise after the event,we as punters dont have that luxury,and time considering the above before placing a wager can be viewed as well spent.



  21. #21

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    The going in horse racing is perhaps one of its biggest uncertainties.

    Othe factors such as weight, distance beaten etc are all given precisely. OK so distances are calculated from times but perhaps that makes them more accurate.

    Going is very vague though. What's the difference between good and good-soft? It's almost impossible to quantify.

    One can examine the effects of an extra few pounds of weight on a horse's back but not the variations in the conditions underfoot so easily. Courses have a going stick and the value for this is usually given in the Racing Post if my memory serves me correctly. But it's barely recognised outside that publication. No-one says the going is 8.4 or whatever, they say it's good (good-soft in places). And in places is meaningless - which places are a different going to the rest of the track?

    Is one man's good-soft the same as another's? Will two clerks of the course give the same track the same going rating? Are the published goings accurate? Are courses under pressure to say the going is good (for example) when it's actually good-firm? This pressure may come from stables who wouldn't run certain horses unless the going is a set rating or whatever. There have been numerous instances where jockeys have disagreed with the official going.

    What use is it knowing that a horse performs well on soft when the course declares the going to be soft when it actual fact it is heavy? You're basing some of your judgement of this horses likely performance on incorrect information.

    Surely there are ways in which the going can be reported more accurately. One is to use the going stick to greater effect and perhaps to publish something akin to a going stick map of the course indicating the value read off the stick at several points round the course.

    Another would be to use a time-based approach. A standard time for a section of a course (e.g. the home straight) on known going (e.g. good) would be set, either by a horse of known ability or some other mechanical device. The time taken to run this same section would then be measured on the morning of racing (or whenever) such that the press can then report the going is x seconds faster or slower than standard. Obviously the first race would provide a more accurate assessment of the going but it's obviously not acceptable to not know the going before the meeting starts.

    Of those ideas the going stick is the most practical and cost-effective. The stick values could be averaged out over each course distance to be run at that meeting and this value can be recorded as the going for that race. Horses can then have their results recorded against these goings so it's easy to see a horse does well when the going is 7.0 to 8.0 but poor when the going is 9.0 or greater, for example.



  22. #22

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    flat 2010

    Yes matt i agree with your above comments,and also regretfully with your reasoning as to why this may occur.
    With all the millions of pounds,involved in racing and the technology available,it should be sorted.
    I think the answer lays with taking this important decision away from the Clerk of the course,and giving the responsibility to an independent/unbiased authority but of course this is unlikely to happen.
    It is possible that those with the power to get this implemented inc the bookmakers hold the view that the majority of punters are not that interested and will back thier fancy whatever.



  23. #23

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    Dug this thread up just to blabber on about how well the 3yo generation are doing this year so far - they won 3 of the 5 races where ran against their elders at the Curragh yesterday.

    Workforce broke the course record in the Derby & Treadwell won a big h'cap at R Ascot - there should be a feast of 3yo winners running against their elders once the weight-for-age scale slips into their favour at 10f+ come August! Technically speaking??

    But that's interesting stuff about the Going above - I've been looking into it myself while working out my own speed figs etc but last week found an article from this time last year by ol' Nick Mordin which corroborates some of what is said above:

    He reckons the lower the Going Stick measurement, the less accurate it seems to be:

    Under 6.2 43%
    6.7-7.9 60%
    <7 - gd/st
    7 - 8.9 - Gd
    8-8.9 75%
    9 or higher 81% - gd/fm

    What I'm finding though is that each clerk of the course seems to have his own ideas on how to use it, like, ones 7 might be another ones 8.

    Yesterday at Uttoxeter was a complete joke - pre-racing they had it at 8.7, after, 7.2 ? Was there some great deluge that I missed?

    The Going Allowance used for the Time Based ground in the Racing Post - and half the races were run faster than standard suggesting as much - would be more in line with around 10!!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  24. #24

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    Dug this thread up just to blabber on about how well the 3yo generation are doing this year so far - they won 3 of the 5 races where ran against their elders at the Curragh yesterday.

    Workforce broke the course record in the Derby & Treadwell won a big h'cap at R Ascot - there should be a feast of 3yo winners running against their elders once the weight-for-age scale slips into their favour at 10f+ come August! Technically speaking??

    But that's interesting stuff about the Going above - I've been looking into it myself while working out my own speed figs etc but last week found an article from this time last year by ol' Nick Mordin which corroborates some of what is said above:

    He reckons the lower the Going Stick measurement, the less accurate it seems to be:

    Under 6.2 43%
    6.7-7.9 60%
    <7 - gd/st
    7 - 8.9 - Gd
    8-8.9 75%
    9 or higher 81% - gd/fm

    What I'm finding though is that each clerk of the course seems to have his own ideas on how to use it, like, ones 7 might be another ones 8.

    Yesterday at Uttoxeter was a complete joke - pre-racing they had it at 8.7, after, 7.2 ? Was there some great deluge that I missed?

    The Going Allowance used for the Time Based ground in the Racing Post - and half the races were run faster than standard suggesting as much - would be more in line with around 10!!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  25. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Think I'll treat myself to a copy of Steve Taplin's 2yo's of 2010 as soon as it becomes available in the hope that it still has all those trainer & sire statistics with median timeform ratings - been 9 years since I did but most handy.
    Hell, there could even be enough (what with all these Gift Vouchers) for a copy of last year's too!

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


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    Changed your mind yet Mick - about the 3yo's?



  27. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post

    Will not back 3yo against older horses.
    Changed your mind yet Mick?



  28. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Godspot View Post
    Changed your mind yet Mick - about the 3yo's?
    HI GS no ,but my bets in 3yo only hcaps have done well this year and as most are towards the top of the weights it would support your view that this year has prouduced a good bunch of 3yos.

    But i still belive that they are disadvantaged when competing against older horses,i will not ignore them but if one comes out top on my analysis of a race i dont bet.

    The above is only within the context of the hcap races i look at,what is occurring in non hcaps may well be different.



  29. #29

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    HI GS no ,.
    No offence bud but you should... 3yo's are wiping the boards against their elders this year.... Avenuesnalleyways on Friday, Wigmore Hall on Saturday (who himself was upstaged on the clock by Capponi), all just about the only 3yo in the race & it just goes on....

    Today: Celestial Girl ran time of the meet against her elders at Brighton and M Johnston ran 2 only 3yo's in race against the elders at Musselbrough - Ginger Jack, he took nearly 2 seconds off the track record & ran about 15l's per mile faster than anything else on the card...

    When Workforce broke the Crse Rec at Epsom, Nick Mordin was soon to put the boot in saying there was rail movements & he may not be that good... Well there was nothing about that mentioned in the Racing Post, who have been pretty hot on the matter of late, he is wrong.

    I understand your point of view but every now & again you are likely to come across a good crop of 3yo's & this year I think is a good case in point.



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    The 3 year olds are something I have been keeping track of for a while, and yes you are right that they are doing great, unfortunately Im not in a position where I can take any more risk on board at the moment, but I have something to capitalise on the 3 year olds hopefully before its too late



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