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Thread: over coming prejudice

  1. #1

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    over coming prejudice

    Sometimes even when results or stats indicate otherwise it can be difficult to bring yourself to abandon a long held view.One such prejudice i have had to over come in recent years concerned horses who had never won a race.

    I am only analysing hcaps for older horses and for many years regardless of rating i would not back a horse who had not won before,in fact i was even more demanding in that i required that any selection must have already won a proper hcap.There is some sense in this which still holds good to day.

    But a couple of years ago i started to notice that an increased number of these virgin horses where winning,i think it could be because of changes to the entries system,but after much thought and paper proofing i decided that under some circumstances i would back these horses,so far this has proved a good decision.

    The first quarter of this year has been the slowest start i have had for many years with my LSP of 15pts , but my last bet in FEB was Hopeful Start won 7.26,and my first bet in MAR was Keep Holden won 4.09,both where horses who had never won before but as you can see have made a major contribution to YTD profits.

    So a good example of the need to keep an open mind and sometimes overcome long held prejudices.



  2. #2

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    One of the best ways to help with analysis is to use System Building software just to get the basic stats on what you are thinking. You quickly discover all the media myths are just that, and the % of say 3yo's in open handicaps in the first 1/4 of the flat season can save you a lot of money.

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

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  3. #3

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    over coming prejudice

    Hi win2win i would not disagree with your above,but for myself knowing how to interpret these stats,and also when to bet against them is just as important.These days computers enable all to view stats,to the point of overkill.

    One example that has been flogged to death,the draw bias of course it is important,but i belive that every race regardless of statistical trends should be treated as a one off unique event,which will never be repeated.

    There are occasions IMO when the fact that a horse has the best draw can be viewed as a disadvantage and visa verse.Some horses,not necessarily always natural front runners prefer to race on thier own,away from the pack,under these cicumstances what is viewed as the worst draw can be advantageous for that particular horse.

    That's just one example of using what i call anti stats.



  4. #4

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    over coming prejudice

    This is another thread which i hope will attract some replies because i am genuinely interested in reading your experiences.

    Probably the biggest prejudice i have had to over come was betting in hcaps.
    In recent years with the likes of pricewise leading the way opinions do appear to have moved.

    But years ago any book or article you read concerning profitable betting invariably contained the advice to ignore hcaps as a betting medium.It took me years of investigating and paper proofing to finally decide that rather than ignore them i should actally try and specialise in them.

    There followed a journey of learning which lasted years with plenty of ups and downs but on balance it has for me been the correct path to follow.

    So in this particular instance is a case of a prejudice over come resulting in an increase in profits.

    At present i have two ongoing to possibly over come one is system betting and the other laying.



  5. #5

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    You came to the game with several years of old-school betting experience when your options were more limited, e.g. bookies shops rather than the internet, no exchanges and so on. I started taking a serious interest in betting in around 2003 by which time the exchanges had bedded in and were an accepted part of the betting scene and online betting was too. I knew nothing of horse racing when I started really (and not much has changed). I wanted a set of rules I could use to pick bets so investigated system betting and that has been my staple ever since. On that basis I don't think I have ever had any prejudices to overcome. I think mainly those coming to the modern game from an old-school background will have such a problem.



  6. #6

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    Yes matt that's fair comment and it could be said that you are fortunate in not having these problems to overcome,but it is a constant learning process and you may find there will be situations for yourself in the future where hard earned knowledge has to be questioned and challenged.

    I am also hoping that the forum has old school members who will be willing to share thier experiences,if nothing else it should provide some entertainment,i started a thread on computers recently as it was the end of my first year on line,and as a newcomer i got into some right comical muddles.



  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    you may find there will be situations for yourself in the future where hard earned knowledge has to be questioned and challenged.
    Absolutely! I have that all the time but thanks to my education and background I barely think about it. I studied physics at university and have always had a fairly methodical, scientific approach to things. Science advances through proposing theories and then testing them. All theories are evaluated in the light of new evidence and updated as necessary. I have got into the habit of constantly re-evaluating what I know as new evidence to support or detract from that knowledge appears.



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