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Thread: mick56 bettingblog

  1. #61

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    Oh thank goodness,i never thought i could feel so pleased about a 7/2 winner,but at least it halted the run of losers,still 12pts down on the month,so nothing to crow about just sheer bloody relief.



  2. #62

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    Good going mick, must be a relief the losing streak came to an end, lets hope there will be more to follow on



  3. #63

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    Cheers BM you and me both !.I am always preaching about being prepared for the worst but never expected so bad so quick.Certainly a learning curve.



  4. #64

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    mick56 bettingblog

    I hope by writing this today to end up proving myself wrong ! there are still 7 days until the end of April and a lot can happen during a weeks betting.But as things stand today it has been a most disappointing first third of the year,and i am keen to see if any lessons can be learnt.

    My figs YTD are bets 73 lsp 2.69PTS roi 3.5% ! i no i should not be moaning because many are still in the red YTD,but i am going to anyway,with i feel some justification because this is a situation that i have not experianced for many years.

    I am fortunate in that i have detailed records of my bets (using this method) for the past 8yrs so it is possible to look at some longer term performance stats.

    This month todate i have placed 6 flat wagers all lost,and this was my first area of investigation,looking at the 8 previouse yrs flat bets in April actually shows a profit but roi and sr are below other months,so the first conclusion is to seriously consider not starting the flat until May 1st.

    The next investigation was to split results into 3, A/ jan-april B/ may-aug C/sept-dec now this was suprising,the order of profit was B C A by significant amounts.I am always distrustful of stats applied to any aspect of racing,unless there is a "racing reason" to justify the figs,and in this example it really revolves around why does A perform below B and C,i have already mentioned the flat bets during april and i guess you could site fitness,no recent form as being justification,but what about the jumpers,this year the bad weather was exceptional but every year it is most likely that disruption and resulting form upsets will occure during the first quarter.

    I am certainly not contemplating 4 months off,but one thing i will be having a look at is staking.I am an advocate of level stakes and previously have only changed mine once a year on jan 1st,but in view of my above findings i am wondering about a change 3 times a year to fit expected results ie a lower pt for period A, a bigger pt for B ,and a normal pt for C.Looks good on paper but?.

    Would be most interested to read your views on above.



  5. #65

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    One futher thought i only joined this forum at the end of last Nov ,and have just noticed that the above was my 800th post,does this mean i am gobby or is it a credit to an interesting and friendly environment,which induces you to post.



  6. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    This month todate i have placed 6 flat wagers all lost,and this was my first area of investigation,looking at the 8 previouse yrs flat bets in April actually shows a profit but roi and sr are below other months,so the first conclusion is to seriously consider not starting the flat until May 1st.
    I don't think you have anywhere near enough evidence to make this call. You've had 6 bets this year and they have all lost but unless all your bets are at the very sharp-end of the market (and they don't seem to be based on your cries of a 7/2 winner yesterday) then a good day or two can easily turn the loss into a profit and then you probably wouldn't be considering laying off till May. So one or two horses could be the difference. Then you have past data - 8 years is not a lot when you're talking about a few bets. If you are comparing April results from each year you only have 8 data points and that's not a big enough sample for any meaningful analysis. Unless you're looking at all results from all races (or even just the types of race in which you specialise) from all years, not just the races you have had a a bet in, then you don't have anything like a large enough data sample and are being too results-centric, in my opinion.

    What justifiable racing reasons are there for not betting on the flat till May 1st? Why May 1st and not May 2nd, 3rd or after 100 (or whatever) flat meetings? Is there no value in the early form? Does it take a set period for form to settle down? How long is that period and does it vary year on year? If it does vary then you might not bet on the flat till May 1st one year and May 17th another, for example.

    I am certainly not contemplating 4 months off,but one thing i will be having a look at is staking.I am an advocate of level stakes and previously have only changed mine once a year on jan 1st,but in view of my above findings i am wondering about a change 3 times a year to fit expected results ie a lower pt for period A, a bigger pt for B ,and a normal pt for C.Looks good on paper but?.
    You've ordered the three periods in terms of profit but what about ROI and SR? Why those three periods? Is it just because we are nearing the end of April so you used year to date, effectively dividing the year into 3? What about dividing the year into 4? Or 6? Or 12? What about splitting the codes and dividing the year into given time periods? Then how does your profit, ROI and SR look for each?

    If A is least profitable and you lower stakes for that period then you will always make less profit, no? You'll be turning a weak perceived trend into a much stronger one of your own making.



  7. #67

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    Hi mathare,thanks for your input,it is only at present a paper exercise,and i did state that i hope events prove me wrong.The 7/2 winner was jumps not flat.



  8. #68

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    mick56 bettingblog

    In the hope of learning other members views,i am going to waffle on the subject of horses carrying penalty's.

    Years ago with a different entry system the above was something which in the majority of instances i held a negative view,sure the horse had won LTO,but could it repeat this with the additional burden?.

    In recent years the factor which has caused me to revise my opinion is having the option to replay races.Some trainers are partically good at farming hcaps,and the importance of a skillful jockey is the key.To win a race by a shortish distance attempting to create the impression that the horse was under pressure and only just made it when in fact it could have won easily,is a legitimate ploy which can sometimes fool the press,the official handicapper and the betting public.This is IMO is an art which is underestimated,and some jockeys are partically adept at.

    Time spent replaying races and forming an opinion concerning the above,can sometimes lead you to the conclusion that a horse may still be well in dispite the penalty.But because of it there will be those who wish to lay it,and this can result in some good value about a form horse.



  9. #69

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    mick56 bettingblog

    I always enjoy reading other members posts about thier betting profits and losses,i feel that the experiences of real people putting thier own cash at risk makes for the most creditable reading.
    At the start of this year the one betting promise i made myself was to not get involved with individual months but rather just look at the YTD total,it is a good piece of advise which unfortunately i have failed to follow.
    The first three months this year where each profitable for me albeit by less than expected,but at the end of MAR i was able to post YTD total of BETS 56 LSP 15.23 ROI 27% respectable if not spectacular.In past years April had been a good month for me and i looked forward to really kicking on with the years profits.This turned out to be a big mistake as i ended up recording my worst ever month a lose of 14pts.
    This virtually wiped out the YTD profits,and really started to knock my confidence.So mentally i had to address the situation,i reviewed my april bets and may have learnt a couple of lessons from this,i told myself that i have still actually got more money than i started the year with ,albeit a small amount,and we are now approaching the summer months which should be a positive time to wager.
    Therefore it is not all doom and gloom,and i hope that any other members who have suffered the same this april can take heart from the above.



  10. #70

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    mick56 bettingblog

    I have just completed my first 6 months wagering on betfair,so thought i would post some comments,and would welcome yours.

    As a computer novice i find the site easy to understand and use,withdrawing money has gone smoothly,and i like the way they present the facts and figs.
    I dislike the weekly 15% deduction on commission pts,and feel there could be a better,or another way of encouraging loyalty.Also apart from the big meetings there is seldom much liquidity in the markets AM.I have contacted them suggesting that they consider offering incentives for this to go head to head with the bookmakers EMP BOG prices.

    From the financial aspect so far i dont feel there is much in it,they claim 20% higher than ISP but assuming you can get on bookies EMP BOG prices ,are often better value.To be fair the winners i have backed so far have been at the front end of the market.two bigger priced winners that i came close to backing but talked myself out of both payed far higher on BFSP than EMP or ISP,so i can see long term a slight edge for BF.

    I guess the aspect that i like most is that they actually want you to win,and you are not knocked back or passed on to a supervisor when trying to place a bet hours before the race.



  11. #71

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    I agree, that with the commission is difficult to get the ball rolling.

    The thing for me is that I work different shifts so its difficult to get into any routine and I can depend on betfair to give me decent odds even though they are not always best I know in the long term I am better off with betfair, sometimes I have to sp if Im not around to keep an eye on the markets but even with the commission factored in its usually better than the bookmakers(on average). If I had more time I would use the bookmakers more when the price is right.



  12. #72

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    mick56 bettingblog

    Well we have got the Chester meeting starting tomorrow,i always look forward to this,even though the cursed draw and questions concerning ability to act on the course,often lead to unanswerable questions,it is to me an exciting place.

    Currently considering the chance of Averroes in the 4.0.



  13. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Currently considering the chance of Averroes in the 4.0.
    I wouldn't put you off Mick, but I reckon Averroes might find himself outclassed here. I much prefer Alrasm (I know it's dull picking the fav but if he goes opens anywhere near forecast price of 11/4 tomorrow, I will have a tasty bet because I think his front running will see off most here and I think he has that extra touch of class in this race.

    But you've seen for yourself my tips, so probably best to lat Alrism

    The Vegster!


    Winner of Ada's Eurovision Game 2014


  14. #74

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    mick56 bettingblog

    Hi veg man regarding your above,horse racing is about opinion,and it is possible to respect someones opinion even when they are wrong,by way of the fact that they have been prepared to offer that opinion in the first place.

    Whats of more concern to me than your tips is the fact that you always appear in pink why is this?.



  15. #75

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    mick56 bettingblog

    Quote Originally Posted by vegyjones View Post
    But you've seen for yourself my tips, so probably best to lat Alrism
    Veg man i am assuming the above is code for LAY ALRASM,hope you had the FC.



  16. #76

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    mick56 bets

    In the hope of generating some interest i am going to try posting some of my thoughts on the days racing.I had hoped to be able to do this from a position of strength IE profit,at present that is not occurring and i feel up against it,but may be that's the right time to talk ?.

    The two i am backing today are trained by my nemesis Mark Johnston,i seldom seem to get it right with his handicappers,but if a good case can be made it has got to be taken.

    Chest 1.45 Submariner other peoples thoughts on this ones chance are reflected by the fact that in a small field it is currently on offer at 8/1,coming from a maiden win straight into a decent hcap,but although it is a speculative wager it is what i term a default bet,because there is IMO,a case to be made against the opposition,which justifies the risk.

    Ffos 7.30 Opus maximus this is more straightforward,he comes out top on my figs and racing conditions should suit.

    The other two i had under consideration for to day but have decided to leave are Goodw 5.20 Whirly dancer,and Ffos 8.35 Bold ring.



  17. #77

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    I think submariner is a risky one, I can't quite put into words why because it is a case of not understanding your reason for coming to that conclusion, not that I disagree with you, just merely a case of me lacking in experience to deal with that particular race.

    It obviously is a horse with high hopes due to the fact Dettori rode it to victory on the maiden, but there are many experienced horses in the race which makes me nervous, there could well be some value there though which I guess is what its all about.



  18. #78

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    Hi BM,understand your thoughts,with SUB it is not so much the case i can build for him winning but rather the case i can make against each of the opposition.This for me makes him a possible winner by default,and at the odds a worthwhile risk.



  19. #79

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    Hi BM,understand your thoughts,with SUB it is not so much the case i can build for him winning but rather the case i can make against each of the opposition.This for me makes him a possible winner by default,and at the odds a worthwhile risk.


    I see the logic, In my mind he probably has an equal chance of winning of the other horses (averagely) with odds of 9.5 on betfair this could averagely pull some profit longterm



  20. #80

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    submariner is upto 15.5 now on betfair??????



  21. #81

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    mick56 bettingblog

    Quote Originally Posted by barrelmaniac View Post
    submariner is upto 15.5 now on betfair??????
    I have just taken some of the 16.0 i think thats great value,and although most would view a drift in price as a negative,i dont look on it that way.



  22. #82

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    I have just taken some of the 16.0 i think thats great value,and although most would view a drift in price as a negative,i dont look on it that way.
    These days I think drifters can offer better value, It will be interesting to see what happens to the odds just before the off- I will be surprise if it drifts anymore, infact I would expect the odds to shorten considerably, but racing can be a funny old game.



  23. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by barrelmaniac View Post
    These days I think drifters can offer better value, It will be interesting to see what happens to the odds just before the off- I will be surprise if it drifts anymore, infact I would expect the odds to shorten considerably, but racing can be a funny old game.

    How wrong can I get? Its going to start way above 25!



  24. #84

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    mick56 bettingblog

    Quote Originally Posted by barrelmaniac View Post
    How wrong can I get? Its going to start way above 25!
    you and me both mate i thought the 16.0 was good value!,but dispite losing i still think it was a justifiable risk at those odds. I had made a case against the fav,and could not have backed the eventual winner,so not to disappointed,and still got the chance to come out on top this evening although not unfortunately at those type of odds!.



  25. #85

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    Best of luck for your bet later mick



  26. #86

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    Cheers mate likewise yours.



  27. #87

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    mick56 bettingblog

    I would be interested in reading other members views,regarding using stats or trends.I no many of you follow systems which may be built around these and the rules make the decision for you.

    But as with most aspects of form,sometimes something which is seen as a help can also be considered a hindrance.

    An area which gets lots of attention is trainer form,but as an example of the above suppouse you have built a strong case for a horse,but the trainer has during the past fortnight had 15 runners without a win,do you say the trainers out of form so no bet,or should you be more flexible because of the good chance you feel his runner has today.

    I no everything in racing needs to be judged on balance,and whatever rules or filters you use will sometimes cost you winners,but i feel the way to improve is to constantly question what you do and why.



  28. #88

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    mick56 bettingblog

    I want to waffle a bit about non runners,the numbers seem to be on the increase and it can be annoying,but you have to except that if a horse is withdrawn,it is usually in the interests of the horse and its backers.

    Apart from the frustration of seeing your good thing W/D if you have taken a price about another runner in the race you have R4 deductions to contend with.Basically these are fair to backer and layer,but what frequently occurs is that the bookmakers over react when re pricing the field,the new prices will often display a higher over round than that previously available.

    Of course under these circumstances no one is forcing you to bet,but i feel that Bookmakers take the view that the majority will back thier fancy regardless of price.If this is correct then we as punters are contributing to our own problem.

    There may be some who set a min price for thier selection and refuse to take less,but i suspect they will be a minority,Perhaps this is a discipline that we should all consider trying,it will cost us winners sometimes but would for most increase thier ROI,and possibly cause the bookmakers to be less greedy with thier margins.



  29. #89

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    mick56 bettingblog

    As backers we seek an edge,this can often lead you down the wrong path,but very occasionally you may find a new aspect of form,which enhances the profitability of your method or system.

    One of the horses i am backing to day Newc 8.25 Dubai dynamo,part of me is saying no,but while trying to play devils advocate,a possible positive aspect for the horse came to mind which i have never considered before,which is time of day.

    It is apparent with some horses,that for what ever reason,that they run thier best at a particular time of year.But what about time of day?.

    In recent years we have an increase in the number of evening meetings,and i wonder if some horses are better suited to racing at this time of day.

    Dubai dynamo has won at night so this could be seen as a positive,i have got no stats to prove/disprove this theroy,but it could be worth futher investigation.



  30. #90

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    Quote Originally Posted by mick56 View Post
    As backers we seek an edge,this can often lead you down the wrong path,but very occasionally you may find a new aspect of form,which enhances the profitability of your method or system.

    One of the horses i am backing to day Newc 8.25 Dubai dynamo,part of me is saying no,but while trying to play devils advocate,a possible positive aspect for the horse came to mind which i have never considered before,which is time of day.

    It is apparent with some horses,that for what ever reason,that they run thier best at a particular time of year.But what about time of day?.

    In recent years we have an increase in the number of evening meetings,and i wonder if some horses are better suited to racing at this time of day.

    Dubai dynamo has won at night so this could be seen as a positive,i have got no stats to prove/disprove this theroy,but it could be worth futher investigation.
    I agree that it can probably infulence a horses run quite a lot, I have never looked into this, but it is something that I have considered many times, horses are not machines, they are animals just like ourselves- some of us are morning people and some of us find it hard to get going in the mornings and are more energetic in the evenings, its all to do with individuals resting cycles whether they are short or long cycles, and the chances are that horses to probably a lesser extent are like this too.



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