Daily Waffle 28th April

[neilb7]

Im really sorry to keep doing this but it was yet another losing day

i am really not enjoying this recently and cant help thinking im doing something wrong ?

i cant do lays due to no access during the day but felt i had a good split of back systems to cover most losing runs, but the last few weeks have shown otherwise......

i really really could do with a change of fortune :splapme

[mathare]

i cant do lays due to no access during the day but felt i had a good split of back systems to cover most losing runs, but the last few weeks have shown otherwise......

Could you not do lays to BSP by putting them on beforehand if you don't have access during the day? You obviously manage to get backs on so why not lays? What's the difference?

Maybe your portfolio of systems isn't at fault and it's your staking that's the problem. Without knowing more about the systems/methods you follow and how you're staking them it's hard to help.

[mathare]

Bit of an oh-so-near end to the day for me with a 14/1 shot beaten half a length and another decent-priced selection (Dromore) beaten a head. That put a little bit of a dampener on proceedings, as did missing out getting a couple of lays matched when NRs came late on to cancel my bets. But a profitable day nonetheless. It could have been better but a profit is still much better than a loss, obviously.

W2W Systems: 0 from 4, down 4pts
W2W Lays: 6 from 8, down 4.23pts
Other: 9 from 17, up 28.38pts

[neilb7]

Could you not do lays to BSP by putting them on beforehand if you don't have access during the day? You obviously manage to get backs on so why not lays? What's the difference?

Maybe your portfolio of systems isn't at fault and it's your staking that's the problem. Without knowing more about the systems/methods you follow and how you're staking them it's hard to help.

Good questions, i will try and explain.
i put all my backs on to BSP the night before, i have looked at laying to starting price but for 2 things, 1: i think i had some advice before that BSP was equilivent to a big overlay ? and 2 you have to put in Max liability when laying to SP, so i was concerned even is i put in say £20 with max odds of 11a run of winners might hit me hard.
i dont have the information or know where to get it to understand the effect of this more.

if i was to lay it would be the NHPM and Flat lays as i have both those.

i currently do.
Pro bets
System Banker
Double top
Info rated
Media FC
Jumping for profit
claiming
Trainer 3
Stoute
Johnston
6+
LTO 3
72 xx
jockey rides
running for profit.

all 3% adjusted daily except johnston (2%)


Neil

[mick56]

Im really sorry to keep doing this but it was yet another losing day

Hi neilb7,i dont feel you need to apologise,for stating truthfully whats occurring and how you feel about it,i can certainly empathise.Sometimes people can help,if not with suggestions then with thier suppourt,or just by sharing simular experiences.This is not necessarily a negative action.

So many involved in betting only want to talk about the winning times,and forget the opposite,which is probably why on balance they show a loss and always will. I suspect that the majority have had the worst of it this year todate, and i still have not worked out why.But one way i am trying to fight back is to carry out a very detailed analise of my bets this year in comparison to previouse years.

I understand you use a portfolio of back and lay systems,and it might be worth considering trying the same.Anyway best of luck with turning it round,and i look forward to reading your boasts of good winners and profits which IMO you will have earned the right to post.

[neilb7]

Cheers Mick,

you make some good points and i have been reading that youre not having the best of time either ?
as you point out a lot are having a bad a year and whilst they dont all post their frustrations day in day out, it does help some to get it out in the open.....
believe me i will be the first to post when i have a great day....
good luck tommorow.

[scoobydoo]

I think today has enforced a suspension for me from the end of April.

Backs 0/4 -4pts
Lays 9/11 -5.85pts


April overall -26.48pts

[mathare]

1: i think i had some advice before that BSP was equilivent to a big overlay ?

It is, generally. It works out about 18% on average but is smaller at lower odds. It takes some work to get an overlay below 10%.

2 you have to put in Max liability when laying to SP, so i was concerned even is i put in say £20 with max odds of 11a run of winners might hit me hard.
i dont have the information or know where to get it to understand the effect of this more.

As I recall laying to SP has to be done to fixed liability so a £20 with a cutoff of 11 would be a £200 liability. You set can set a price limit on the SP above which your lay won't be taken I think. But as it's fixed liability the amount you win depends on the SP.

In terms of the backs, are they all profitable for you? My own records (and those of other members I have looked at) suggest that some of those systems have lost their edge somewhat. My own personal experience is also that 3% adjusted daily wasn't working and I recently switched to levels for all systems.

A few things to think about maybe...

[mathare]

Just to reinforce what Mick has said, no-one on this forum should feel the need to apologise for venting a bit of frustration at having a bad day. As much as we all try to take emotion out of this game it's damned difficult to do when there is money at stake and it can get the better of us. Tell it like it is. If you're having a bad day then feel free to say so. Someone here may be able to help you. They can't put the money back in your pocket but having someone else cast their eyes over what you are doing may help you in the future.

[neilb7]

Thanks Mathare

i am keen to get advice and in response to your earlier reply to me i will have a look at a few things.
I need to look at some of the systems and make some adjustments, i'm thinking adding some lay systems might help me, my earlier example meant that i would lay to a max liability of £20 with a max odds of 11 probably on around a £300 starting bank ?

thanks for the replies....

[Laf]

My first day back system betting after a four month hiatus. Sounds like you've all been having a tough time of it lately. Hopefully my return will bring some good luck!


W2W backs - 0 from 2, down 2pts
W2W lays - 9 from 10, up 5.6 pts
Others - 1 from 3, up 0.6 pts

[scoobydoo]

All the best to you Laf

[mathare]

my earlier example meant that i would lay to a max liability of £20 with a max odds of 11 probably on around a £300 starting bank ?

A £300 bank with a £20 liability gives you the equivalent of 15 winners in the bank. For NHPM and Lay'em that should be plenty.

When setting a bank size you should look to take the longest losing run and double it. According to my own figures the LLRs for NHPM and Lay'em are 3 and 3 respectively so having a bank of 15 winners should give you plenty.

[Laf]

All the best to you Laf

Thanks mate.
:)

[neilb7]

A £300 bank with a £20 liability gives you the equivalent of 15 winners in the bank. For NHPM and Lay'em that should be plenty.

When setting a bank size you should look to take the longest losing run and double it. According to my own figures the LLRs for NHPM and Lay'em are 3 and 3 respectively so having a bank of 15 winners should give you plenty.

Cheers, i am going to stop talking and start with some lays to see if it helps my results going forward.