The daily chatter may have died down a lot and the posting of daily results may have stopped but I am still persevering with my monthly reviews
July was profitable, and made back pretty much all I lost in June so that's put me back where I was a couple of months ago really. It's still quite a way behind where I wanted to be but the pressure isn't on me too much yet and I have learned a lot in these past few months and continue to apply that new-found knowledge to my betting activities.
One thing I have done is take another look at the various systems and services that make up my portfolio. Some of them are underperforming massively and need to be dropped, quite frankly. No point throwing more money after the losses I have already experienced so it's time to cut my losses and ditch the systems/services that just aren't doing it for me for whatever reason.
Two of the non-W2W services I have dropped this month are Intelligent Betting (a football service that was breaking even on their tips but as a result not covering subscription costs) and Sports Profit Accelerator (a sports service that I was trialling live and it has been disappointing really). I have a few ante-post bets from SPA still open and if they do well there is a chance that service could come close to covering its losses but I am still happy to drop it from my portfolio as it's not delivering as I would have hoped and therefore there's no point paying for it. Dropping these two services won't make a huge difference to the bottom line but it all helps.
When it comes to the W2W systems I have put a few on what I call my Watch List. If these systems don't start to show a great deal more promise in the coming months then they will be dropped. The systems currently on that list are: CD Lays, Trainer 3, Max Lays and Michael Stoute.
I know it's not NH season really but the Trainer 3 system has shown losses in 5 of the last 6 months, one of which cost nearly 15pts. It's on the Watch List rather than being dropped as I made over 18pts in January and most of the other losses have been only a few points so there is a chance it will come good again. But unless it sparks up again nicely when the NH kicks off again proper it will be dropped. My current bank is a long way below the peak I reached in January of this year so this is one I will be looking for improvements in else I will abandon it.
The CD Lays have been poor for a couple of years now. I have messed about with some of my lay staking plans during that time but that doesn't affect the SR which this year is around 2% down on the average and 2009's SR wasn't much better. Lay systems are good for turnover which means they are useful when one is trying to bring one's Betfair commission rate down but despite the benefits there this system is a loser for me at present so I need to see some improvement if it is to survive the cull. I've had some good months on this though and that's the only reason it's not already been dropped, especially as I lost nearly 60pts this month. As I said though, I have made some staking changes and their effect is yet to fully filter through.
Max Lays is the other system on the Watch List. It's been an up and down service that has never really got going for me and with few qualifiers these days it won't make much of a difference to my overall turnover so won't be missed. My records show an SR of around 71% this year which is simply not good enough. Another bad month and it's bye-bye to this one.
The Michael Stoute system has survived this month's cull for one reason - my records show it usually has a good August and September. Unless it repeats past performances in these months it's for the drop. The results just aren't up to scratch this year and my past profits have all but been wiped out as the SR is significantly down on previous years. This one looks past its best and only a good August and September can save it from the scrapheap really.
I have also decided that I have had enough of the 45Males system. No Watch List for this one, it goes directly to jail without passing Go. It has been losing consistently and shows no signs of improvement so is dropped - simple as that.
The breakdown of my portfolio for July looks like this:
Good (profitable)
W2W (6 systems, +69.26pts)
Johnston Tracks +22.52pts
LTO3 +10.11pts
SixPlus Loser +1.51pts
Lay'em +30.25pts
First Timer +2.49pts
NH Media +2.38pts
Non-W2W (7 systems, +41.55pts)
NailedOn AW +11.48pts
A List - Place +1.53pts
Progeny +49.11pts
Easy Money Lays +20.51pts
Classic Lays +10.06pts
On The Oche +0.95pts
Sports Profit Accelerator +2.13pts
No Limit Hold'em Tourneys +8.55pts
Bad (unprofitable)
W2W (10 systems, -115.23pts)
45Males -17.85pts
Michael Stoute -14.08pts
CD Lays -57.11pts
Claiming Jockey -1.00pts
Double Top -2.05pts
Info Rated -0.05pts
Trainer 3 -1.00pts
Ladies Lays -5.26pts
NHPM -2.90pts
Max Lays -13.93pts
Non-W2W (12 systems, -405.66pts)
A List - Win -2.72pts
PP Free -5.00pts
HSR -2.06pts
Premier Lays -8.00pts
NailedOn Lays -24.95pts
Football Elite -0.05pts
Intelligent Betting -2.00
Lunchtime Profit Alerts -0.37pts
Bet Bank Alerts -0.75pts
The Insider -2.13pts
Trades -4.16pts
NB. Systems and services are listed here simply to provide a full monthly record of my betting activities and their mention should not be construed as a recommendation of said system/service. The results given are mine and mine alone and do not form part of the official results for any service.
A 14:21 good:bad split this month following a 19:16 month last month, yet last month was a losing month and this month was profitable so it goes to show how important it is to have a balanced portfolio with some systems able to make plenty of profit while others struggle.
You can see that compared to last month some services/systems have experienced a big turnaround which has been very welcome in most cases. You can also see that poker is back on the agenda as I have dabbled (successfully) in SNGs again.
Not a bad July all in all and hopefully the changes I have made to my portfolio will result in an even better August.
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Originally Posted by mathare
