mathare's Rateform Portfolio System

[mathare]

The new football season is here so it's time to give one of my new portfolio systems a live trial on this forum to see how it performs. It's done well in the past but as I'm sure many of you realise, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

System Development
The portfolio systems came about as the result of a significant amount of number crunching and poring over dozens of spreadsheets worth of data from the four English League divisions (Premiership, Championship, League One and League Two) stretching back to the 1993-94 season in an attempt to identify trends that could be exploited in order to beat the bookies and generate a profit. Surprisingly, several hundred such trends were uncovered with these trends then subjected to further analysis to identify those best suited for combining with other trends to form a single system designed to take advantage of several profitable angles at once – a so-called portfolio system.

Each portfolio system has undergone optimisation to ensure that the individual trends combine in such a way that the portfolio is balanced and offers a relatively smooth accumulation of profits. This optimisation process was designed to create a portfolio system that delivered a manageable number of bets per season but also showed steady year-on-year profits. The process was extended somewhat to individual months and divisions so as to try and achieve balance there also – in short to ensure that no single month or division was dragging the whole portfolio down.

The balance of the Rateform Portfolio System is pretty good, overall. For example, there isn't too much variation in terms of number of bets per month throughout the season. There is some natural variation of course as some trends are stronger at certain times of the year but overall the balance is decent. The Championship weighs in with relatively few bets compared to the other divisions but again this is just a natural consequence of the chosen trends.

Backtesting
In order to ensure that each portfolio was profitable they have all been backtested as far as possible using odds data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk. For bets in the 1X2 markets I have been able to test the portfolio over the past 10 seasons whereas for under/over 2.5 goals bets the backtesting has taken in the last five years.

Due to the lack of a starting price for any given bet (as one would find in sports designed for betting such as horse racing and greyhound racing) a decision must be made as to which set of odds to use during any backtesting of football systems. I opted to use the average odds recorded from BetBrain where available and to compute the average of the odds available from the major bookmakers where the BetBrain average was not available.

Analysis of the odds data from several years has shown that the average odds used are very attainable and can often be beaten by shopping around a little with the UK bookmakers. As a result I feel the profit levels shown in the backtesting of each portfolio system are realistic and don’t require one to be able to get the very best odds on every bet.

The average return on investment for the portfolios is approximately 20%.

Staking
Each individual trend has been set to use 1pt level stakes. The staking of an individual portfolio system bet depends on how many trends have selected it, as there is some overlap between some trends. Each portfolio bet has a minimum stake of 1pt, with a maximum varying slightly from portfolio to portfolio but has not exceeded 5pts to date. The average stake also varies from portfolio to portfolio but is usually somewhere around 1.2pts, so you can see the majority of the bets are at the lower end of the staking and maximum bets are relatively rare.

For the Rateform Portfolio the average stake is 1.08pts with a maximum stake to date of just 2pts. The longest losing run has been 10 bets (14pts staked) with the longest winning run extending to 8 bets (24.75pts profit). I suggest a betting bank of at least 30pts if you plan to follow this system.

Qualifiers
Selections will be posted on here in good time to get bets on before the game starts. They will usually be posted on the morning of the match or even the day before if the necessary data is available at that time. Each selection will comprise the details of the bet (which match, the predicted result, the stake) along with advised odds taken from the UK bookmakers as well as the firm(s) at which the odds can be found.

Performance
I will be maintaining a full set of statistics relating to the portfolio system's performance - number of bets, stake, strike rate, profit/loss, ROI and so on. I will be updating the forum on a regular basis with this information so you can track the progress of this system throughout the season.

The profit/loss figure I maintain will be based around average odds calculated from the bookmakers listed on Oddschecker. Better than average odds will be available with some UK firms and with many of the Asian bookies but by using the average I hope to report a realistic profit figure as not everyone will get the best odds on every bet.

I have a full breakdown of the past performance of this system going back 10 seasons, split by month, season and also by division. I have attached this as an image to this post rather than fight the forum to display a nice-looking table.

Rateform Portfolio Stats.JPG

The number of bets takes a significant jump between the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons because I only have odds data for under/over 2.5 goals bets for the past five seasons whereas I have 1X2 data for the past 10 seasons. The system selects bets in both the 1X2 and under/over markets so in effect the first five seasons reflect the performance of just the 1X2 bets with the five most recent seasons giving a much better idea of the performance of the system as a whole.

If you have any questions, let me know and I will do my best to answer them.

[mathare]

Rateform Portfolio - 7th August
Typical isn't it? You go to all that hard work to put the system together and backtest it and there are no qualifiers for the opening weekend! August is traditionally fairly quiet though and with the Premiership kicking off next weekend I'm sure we will have bets soon.

[MattR]

Frustrating when that happens isn't it! Eager to see how it gets going live and there are no qualifiers.

Good luck Mat

[scoobydoo]

Good luck with this mat, will be following

[mathare]

I should mention quickly that this is a live trial and while the system has been profitable in the past this is the first season it will be tested with real data that I have collected myself. Because of that you may just want to paper-trade the selections. If you do put money down on these I suggest you keep the stakes small, just in case. I will have real money on all the selections as I am confident it will turn a reasonable profit but I too am keeping the stakes down just to be on the safe side.

Ultimately though, you're big enough and ugly enough to look after yourselves. It's your money - do what you want with it

[scoobydoo]

Ultimately though, you're big enough and ugly enough to look after yourself. It's your money - do what you want with it

Talking about Matt like that....shocking really

[Win2Win]

Did you find any reason for the drop in SR's for the seasons 03-05? Wrong type of grass or something!!! ..... as long as the bottom line is profit it's fine, and you expect swings, but I usually like to dig a little deeper looking for any trends that caused the drop, and then see if negative trend continues even when the overall SR improves. I'll shut up now as my mind is muddled

[mathare]

Did you find any reason for the drop in SR's for the seasons 03-05?

No, not really. The make-up of the bets in those years was slightly different to normal with fewer home bets which would account for some of the SR drop. But I examined the full breakdown of each constituent trend when putting this together and while some had minor blips like this ultimately the system was profitable every year and shows a decent level of return so who am I to argue with that?

[Laf]

Best of luck with this Mathare. I'm looking forward to seeing how it gets on.

[vegyjones]

[Win2Win]

This translates to Vegy has no idea what anyone is talking about

[mathare]

It's taken a little while to get going but we finally have a bet for this weekend to get this thread up and running

Rateform Bets
14/08/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet, Tote Sport, Betfred)

[Laf]

That match has been postponed due to Southampton's owner passing away.

[mathare]

Cheers Laf. I thought the markets were a bit sparse on Oddschecker but didn't really know why.

I guess we're not up and running yet after all :(

[mathare]

We do have a bet after all, although I'm a little puzzled as to why this one didn't come up when I ran the code yesterday

14/08/2010 Hartlepool v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet) +2.24pts

[MattR]

That's odd Mat? What made you run it again? Look forward to seeing how these do (oh and nice start on those HDA one's last week, some cracking away wins in there)

[mathare]

That's odd Mat? What made you run it again? Look forward to seeing how these do (oh and nice start on those HDA one's last week, some cracking away wins in there)

I ran it again so I could use the latest odds in case that made a difference. It didn't (as none of the odds used were a relevant factor this week) but I did find this bet. I checked yesterday's version and it came up then too. Bizarre. But I am 100% sure this is a qualifying bet so we are up and running after all, despite the false start

[mathare]

Hartlepool v Swindon ended 2-2 yesterday to give us our first winner on this system.

Even though I advise the best available odds with each bet I will actually be settling to average odds at the time I run the code to produce the qualifiers. This is in recognition of the fact that not everyone can get on at the best odds, especially when they are only available with one firm was the case with yesterday's 12/5 about the draw which was only available at Sky Bet. The average price was 3.24 in decimal odds (used because once you average several fractional odds you rarely end up with a suitable fraction at the end) so yesterday's 1pt bet on the draw was good for +2.24pts.

There's no point putting up a stats table after one bet but as the number of bets in this system increases I will start putting up regular tables of stats so you can see how the system progresses throughout the season.

There's nothing for the Liverpool v Arsenal game, by the way. I haven't checked the Monday night Premiership game as I want to make sure I am using the latest odds so I will check that match on Monday morning.

[mathare]

Nothing for the Man Utd-Newcastle game this evening so we have a few days off now as there are no midweek games. Don't spend all your +2.24pts profit at once

[mathare]

I worked out why last weekend's qualifier didn't come up when I ran the code first time. It did appear as a qualifier but the code that outputs the bets contained a bug that overwrote the previous qualifier. So with the MK Dons v Southampton match in the list that bet overwrote Hartlepool v Swindon but when I deleted the postponed match we were left with just the one qualifier. All fixed now though, as evidenced by the fact we have two qualifiers this weekend.

21/08/2010 Peterboro v Huddersfield - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet, Betfred, Coral)
21/08/2010 Crewe v Barnet - 1pt Away Win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

[mathare]

Two losers over the weekend with Crewe absolutely hammering Barnet and Peterborough beating Huddersfield.

1 from 3 (33.33%)
+0.24pts (7.96% ROI)

[mathare]

28/08/2010 Portsmouth v Cardiff - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
28/08/2010 Bristol Rvs v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
28/08/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)

[mathare]

All losers last weekend

1 from 6 (16.67%)
-2.76pts (-46.02% ROI)

[mathare]

A bumper crop for tomorrow

04/09/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Hartlepool - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Blue Square, 888 Sport)
04/09/2010 Dag and Red v Leyton Orient - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Exeter v Charlton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Huddersfield v Bournemouth - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James)
04/09/2010 Notts County v Yeovil - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Bwin)
04/09/2010 Southampton v Rochdale - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Boyle Sports)
04/09/2010 Accrington v Wycombe - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Chesterfield v Lincoln - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (5 bookies)
04/09/2010 Stevenage v Crewe - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)

[scoobydoo]

Thank Mat and for t'others