Thread: Gold cup focus
18th March 2011 #1Banned
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Gold cup focus
Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup
Favourites: 5 wins from 10 (PROFIT £4.35; ROI +43.5%).
Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Recent form: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Festival Form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won or been placed at a previous
Festival (6 had won).
Age: All of the last 10 winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 (16 of the last 17).
Course LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners came from one of three tracks –Leopardstown,
Newbury or Kempton.
King George: 7 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George VI chase the previous
December (for 5 of them it was their most recent start).
Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 169 or bigger have produced 8 winners from
only 20 qualifiers.
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners had not raced for at least a month.
Breeding: Irish bred runners have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 120 runners.
Age: Horses aged 10 or older are 0 wins from 47.
Finishing positions of favourites: 4, PU, 1, 1, 1, 11, 1, 2, 1, F
Trends Summary: A race stacked with positive trends. Favourites have done
well in recent years and the top end market as a whole has dominated the
last 10 renewals. All of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 of the
betting and were priced 15/2 or shorter. Age wise 7 to 9yos are the group
to concentrate on, while a good recent run is a definite plus. Also look for
horses that have ran well in a previous Cheltenham Festival. Respect horses
that ran in the King George, and another key stat is to look for horses rated
169 or higher. They have provided 80% of the winners from 14% of the
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