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  1. #26

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    Hello again,

    Don't worry about the AWFillies, I managed to stay consistent in my selection process and I am now seeing a 19% appreciation. Johnston is showing a 9% depreciation. Al Zarooni is showing a 45% appreciation, however I decided to include the Meydan runners on Dubai World Cup day as I noticed on your previous results that you had done the same. I am glad I did as Monterosso returned a 24.12 winner for me! Fav Tracks has been the most consistent (in terms of volatility) system for me showing a 12% appreciation at the moment.

    All in all I am glad with the current success and the systems have displayed long term potential. So, a big thank you for sharing the information for a reasonable fee.

    I have just purchased Flat Running for Profit for £12.50.

    I do have some questions regarding the criteria:

    http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/ca...5#raceTabs=sc_

    Please follow the link, it may make it easier to understand my query.

    1. Despite there being 9 runners in the race, there are only 3 different weights dividing the field. It is then sorted alphabetically. So how would you arrange these horses descending from Top Weight? I.e What would be Top Weight?

    2. Do you not think that the ground condition that has to be adhered to for the system is going to be hard to follow? Good could turn into Good (Goof to Soft in places) after the first run. What if it rains or the sun comes out half way through the meeting?

    With regards to the second point, you do not happen to know whether the Racing Post website update the ground condition throughout the day to better reflect the impact of changing weather conditions.

    Best Regards,

    Mo



  2. #27

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    For each weight level from the top you add 1. So if you only have 3 different weights for example then you can't count past 3, and that would qualify as it is under X. That rule only really comes into effect with handicaps.

    No site updates going throughout the day, and nor do I bother rerunning the qualifiers it if changes from say good, to gd-sft. If you are likely to get a sever change then it is worth halving the stake or rerunning the system, but only in cases of things like Good to Heavy, which is rare.



  3. #28

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    Nice 1.



  4. #29

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    Just a thought...

    Hello again,

    Just a quickie:

    Do you have any systems that oppose Likely Favourites in Handicaps? It seems as though there may be some potential there, I have been laying the first two favourites to place in every handicap for the last week with remarkable results.

    Kindly, let me know if you have anything similar or perhaps something in the pipeline as I would be very interested?

    Kind regards,

    Mo



  5. #30

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    I don't but I'll take a note and do a stats run on it some day. It's not really easy to do though as statistical software goes by SP and number of runners, whereas Betfair stats required use neither in some cases. Have an 8 runner field, and then get 4 non-runners, Betfair still pay the first 3 places, whereas a bookmaker pays the 1st place only.



  6. #31

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    You can test ideas like this in Simulation Mode in BetSender



  7. #32

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    Saeed Bin Suroor horses aren't included in the AL ZAROONI system are they?



  8. #33

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    Nope... different trainer



  9. #34

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    It's only me again.

    Thinking of buying the remaining Systems that i have not bought (Flat Layem and NH Lays).

    Any chance of of a deal for them both?

    Regards



  10. #35

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    If you don't ask you don't get

    Since you've bought all the others recently, buy one of the ones you want and I'll add the other to your account for free



  11. #36

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    What a nice fella you are.

    I am a poor student and all. Hehe.

    I shall purchase Flat Layem shortly.

    Kind Regards



  12. #37

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    Keith,

    Re: Layem System

    You state that the horse must not be in the first # in the weights. What if there are more than one at the same weight?

    Regards,



  13. #38

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    All those at the same weight count as '1'. So you can have
    1. 3x
    2. 2x
    3. 1x
    4. 6x

    This is only a count up to a weight rank of 4, but includes 12 horses



  14. #39

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    Good Morning Star was forecast more than 33/1 but I still backed it for my Johnston system. I have done so with every other horse that has been forecast to be more than 33/1 and some have come close. I'm glad Ive tweaked this rule as I had Good Morning Star on betfair at 135, due to Backing when high and laying for half the stake when short. Anyhow, I was getting worried about Johnston system as been performing below par recently - not anymore. Hehe.



  15. #40

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    That's the thing with the Johnston system, it does go through times you think it's all doom season after season, but he always manages to pull it out of the fire, and he doesn't really get into full swing until Royal Ascot



  16. #41

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    Good to know. Must say AWFillies is doing remarkably well atm, don't you think? Started with £200, now at £495 in 45 days. I have created a couple of my own so running over 10 systems atm whilst studying - It's all manageable though. I do the qualifier picking the night before, only takes about 30 minutes.



  17. #42

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    Once you've been doing a system for a while, you can usually pick up the qualifiers just by glancing at the cards.



  18. #43

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    Keith,

    A quick word about Flat Running for Profit. I'm currently showing a 16% Strike Rate off 19 selections? Is that normal? Betting Bank has reduced by 40% and Longest Losing Run is 7 whilst longest Winning Run is only 1. Im currently selecting the qualifiers the night before.

    Regards,



  19. #44

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    Also, are newcomers ignored for AWFillies system?



  20. #45

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    Sorry one other thing and then it should all be cleared up. If a qualifier for Flat Running is not the likely favourite but is less than the odds to be qualified under the system criteria, does it qualify or does it have to be likely favourite? I guess Im asking, does the rule use for fav tracks applied for flat running system?



  21. #46

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    It has to be the actual likely Fav regardless of what price any of the other runners are



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