1:00 Chepstow – GetRewards4Racing Points With Coral Beginners’ Chase


KEPPOLS HILL won all four starts in points last season and was very unlucky not to win at the first time of asking for Paul Nicholls, when making a bad mistake at the last at Ffos Las when well clear. Nicholls has an excellent record at Chepstow with ex pointers and it is easy to see him getting another winner here. Ruby Walsh is in the saddle and he bids to gain compensation for last time out, when the horse was two lengths clear prior to falling at the last in a decent race. If anything, this race looks an easier option and assuming he jumps the last better this time, he should prove hard to beat.


32Red Novices’ Hurdle (Tolworth Hurdle) (Grade 1) – Sandown,2:25 Saturday 5th January


With seven of the last ten winners having won last time out, this looks like a trend to stay on the right side of. Golden Hoof, Melodic Rendezvous, Pendra and Poet all arrive this year on the back of wins, whilst Court Minstrel, Le Reve and Royal Boy will be bidding to buck the trend. That said I am happy to rule out Court Minstrel at this stage given that he only finished third last time and none of the previous ten winners finished outside the first two on their most recent visit to the racecourse.

The age-group to follow in the Tolworth looks to be those aged five and six as they account for nine of the last ten winners of the race. Last year Captain Conan became the sixth five-year-old winner in recent times and Golden Hoof, Le Reve and Pendra will all be bidding to make it seven. Supporters of Melodic Rendezvous can cling to the fact that Thisthatandtother won this as a seven-year-old in 2003, following New York Rainbow and French Holly who won in 1992 and 1998 respectively. However, Poet will be attempting to become the first eight-year-old winner of the race and it looks an uphill task for him to defy this pattern.

In past years, this race has tended to suit horses who are still very much in the early stages of their hurdling careers. A record of four runs or less under national hunt rules accounts for eight of the last ten winners. Of this year’s field only Court Minstrel will be flying in the face of this pattern following seven previous visits to the racecourse.

The market is often a good guide as to the way the race pans out with seven of the last ten winners coming from the first two in the betting. Lingo, Noland, Breedsbreeze and Minella Class all won having been sent off favourite, so don’t be put off by those at the head of the market. It is too early at this stage to comment on the state of the betting, but it is worth bearing in mind before making a final selection.


In terms of trainer trends, the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled back-to-back winners of the race suggests that his runners know their way to the winning post. This year he is represented by the five-year-old Golden Hoof and his six-year-old stable mate Royal Boy. In fact he is the only trainer with a runner in this year’s field who has previously trained a winner of this race and perhaps the experience of preparing a winner could assist him in achieving a third consecutive winner.


Shortlist

ROYAL BOY

Golden Hoof


Conclusion


Golden Hoof continued his gradual progression with an impressive eight-length success at Sandown last time. This built on his hurdles debut where he triumphed in the Novices’ Hurdle.The ground on Saturday will be softer than what he has experienced so far but it was soft last time and he seemed to revel in the conditions. He comes from the powerful Henderson yard and could be provide the stable with a one-two finish.

As I have mentioned ROYAL BOY also comes from the Henderson yard and looks to be the first choice based on jockey bookings. He was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Melodic Rendezvous on his debut under rules and he is entitled to have improved for the experience. I fancy him to turn the form around with that rival and with a run now under his belt, he could run a big race.



Coral Welsh National (Grade 3) – Chepstow, 3:20 Saturday 5th January


A top-four finish on their most recent outing is something that nine of the last ten winners had on their resume. This stat rules out seven of this year’s field including the well-fancied Teaforthree, the Jo Hughes-trained Soll as well as Nick Williams’ Alfie Spinner. Four recent winners of this race managed to win last time before coming here and Master Overseer, Monbeg Dude, Sona Sasta and Arbor Supreme will all be bidding to add to this tally on Saturday afternoon.

An equally strong pattern is that nine of the last ten winners had run in no more than two contests during the season. This looks to be bad news for several runners such as top-weight Across The Bay, who has had three runs since October. He is joined by the likes of Viking Blond, Jadanli, Harouet, Our Island, Incentivise and Arbor Supreme, who will all be attempting to defy one of the stronger trends associated with this race.

Due to the pronounced undulations embedded in the track at Chepstow it is hardly surprising that horses with previous form round here tend to do well. In fact seven of the last ten winners had previously recorded a victory at the Monmouthshire course. There is no shortage of horses with previous form here to their name in this year’s field with nine of those due to take part matching the trend. Some of the notable Chepstow winners taking part include Sona Sasta who won here over 3m at the beginning of December, Michel Le Bon who scored here over hurdles as a five-year-old and Alfie Spinner who won here on his chasing debut in 2011.


The Welsh National is renowned as an extreme test of stamina given the 3m 5½f trip, the heavy going that horses usually encounter and the pace at which the race is run. This idea is confirmed by the fact that only around half of the runners who have started the race have managed to complete in the last ten years. Therefore proven form over at least 3m can go a long way in determining potential contenders given that all of the last ten winners had previously recorded a victory over this distance.

The last thing to be wary of is the record of market leaders, with Silver Birch the only winning favourite in the last ten years. In fact only half of the horses sent off favourite managed to achieve a top three finish and it is therefore worth having a look at those away from the top of the betting.


Shortlist

MICHEL LE BON

Universal Soldier

Sona Sasta

Master Overseer

Conclusion

Universal Soldier arrives here on the back of a creditable second behind Quartz De Thaix at Haydock and considering that was only his fifth start over the bigger obstacles, it would not be unreasonable to anticipate further improvement. His 52-length destruction of a decent field at Towcester marked him as useful and having been stepped up in company he continues to do himself justice. He ran over 4m at the Cheltenham Festival behind Teaforthree so his stamina can be trusted and looks set for a big showing for the in-form Charlie Longsdon team.

Sona Sasta is one of two representatives for the Pond House yard of trainer David Pipe. His father managed to saddle five winners of the race during his career and two of his son’s team make it onto our shortlist. The ten-year-old gelding won here at the beginning of December on his seasonal debut and is entitled to come on for that run. His jockey at the weekend will be Mr M Ennis who will be taking 7lbs off the horse’s back. He has piloted the horse on its last two starts and with the lower weight likely to play a significant part in testing conditions, it would be foolish to rule him out.

The other Pipe representative is the ten-year-old Master Overseer who was successful in Grade 3 company on his most recent outing. That was over 3m 2f at Cheltenham in ground similar to what he will be encountering on Saturday. He was pulled up in this race last year but bounced back to win the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter, proving the trip should be no problem for him. He looks to be in good form and he has only been raised 3lb on the back of his Grade 3 success, he has had a longer break following the abandonment of the first meeting and having been freshened up could be set for a big effort.

The marginal preference on this occasion is for the Paul Nicholls-trained MICHEL LE BON. Despite being ten years of age, the Welsh National will be only his fifth start over fences, suggesting that improvement could still be on the way. He won a Grade 2 on his first attempt at the larger obstacles before being tried in Graded handicaps. His reappearance behind The Package was encouraging enough and there could well be more to come. His trainer has saddled two previous winners of the race and with Ruby Walsh heading over to ride; I would suggest he could be involved at the business end of the race.