Cookie Policy: This web site uses cookies. By using this site you agree to our cookie policy.
Disclaimer: By posting on this web site it is accepted that you have agreed to the T&C. This is an information forum, and it is just that information, all views are of the individual poster and not that of the site owner. Please DO NOT publish copyrighted material without the owners permission. If you copy news or articles include a link back to the original site. Threads/Posts may be deleted on request. No other links without permission.
BEFORE POSTING A QUESTION: Your question has probably been asked before, so please use the
SEARCH FUNCTION, as we grow tired of answering the same question again and again.
Results 1 to 9 of 9

Thread: Cheltenham Festival Stats/Trends

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51

    Cheltenham Festival Stats/Trends

    Thought this a great post worth sharing & maybe adding to at some point:

    2014 Cheltenham Festival: The Fallout…
    .
    Sentimentality, as always, led you to the Festival poor-house…
    Yeah you know what I’m talking about, it’s that old chestnut about ignoring the older generation at the Festival. Once more it held true. Here are the figures for runners aged 11 or older at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival…

    0 winners from 35 runners | 0% S/R | -£35.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/35 | 11% S/R

    If you want to get sentimental and remember the good times then go look at pictures of yourself as a kid or dig out a picture of one of your old pets, DON’T back a horse because you won money on it in the past or he/she is a favourite of yours! The Cheltenham Festival is a hard enough puzzle to solve without throwing your hard earned cash at a horse because it did you a favour in the past. And yes, that includes BIG BUCKS! The Festival is a hostile environment. Experience can help but younger legs help more!

    10yo’s tried to do their bit for the oldies and to be fair including them did improve the older horses win figures a touch but it was only Quevega – who let’s be honest is a law to herself in a weak division – and Balthazar King – who is a dedicated expert in a specialist discipline – who landed a blow for the 10yo age group.
    The figures for runners aged 10yo and older read…

    2/67 | 3% S/R | -£59.34 BFLSP – Win & Place 11/67 | 16% S/R

    They at least get a couple winners on the board but they rip an even bigger hole in your pocket, a hole that your hard earned cash tumbles through with unerring regularity at festival time.

    Do NOT let sentimentality get the better of you at the Cheltenham Festival; that is an order!
    .
    Horses that warmed up on the A/W LTO drew a great big stinking blank…

    There is every chance that Jumpers Bumpers will become a regular part of the winter National Hunt game. There is also every chance that a trainer takes the ‘easy’ option and sends his Cheltenham hope out for an un-competitive spin on the sand.
    This year that proved to be an un-profitable approach…

    0/21 | 0% S/R | -£21.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 2/21 | 9.5% S/R

    21 warmed up on the All-Weather – 21 failed to convert in their chosen Festival race. Not a great deal were fancied to be fair and My Tent Or Yours almost landed the Champion Hurdle. The important word there is ‘almost’; he didn’t ‘actually’ manage to land the Champion Hurdle.

    The thing is this isn’t a new phenomenon. If we look back at the last six Cheltenham Festivals and consider the runners that had their pre-Festival warm-up at an All-Weather track we get the following figures…
    0/72 | 0% S/R | -£72.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 3/72 | 4% S/R

    72 have needed a spade and bucket for their warm-up assignment and 72 have failed to convert in their chosen Festival race.

    BEWARE of those runners taking an unconventional final step on the road to Cheltenham!
    .
    Punchestown & Fairyhouse again proved to be ideal warm-up tracks…

    Blindly following runners that had their last start before the Festival at these two Irish tracks has been a rich source of profits.
    This year they produced eight winners between them. The full stats make for pleasant reading…

    8/57 | 14% S/R | +£63.48 BFLSP – Win & Place 21/57 | 37% S/R

    In fact if we look at the previous 3 seasons we get…

    2013 – 9/58 | 15.5% S/R | +£52.12 BFLSP
    2012 – 6/55 | 11% S/R| +£64.64 BFLSP
    2011 – 8/48 | 17% S/R | +£39.83 BFLSP

    There is a LOT to like about those figures; TAKE NOTICE!
    .
    16 of the 27 winners WON last time out…
    Or in other words 59% of Festival races were won by a horse that also won last time out.

    Sometimes as punters we can be guilty of looking past the obvious, sometimes, however, we do need to factor the obvious into the equation.

    Last time out winners actually out-performed market expectation at this years Festival.
    On the other side of the coin however…
    .
    Only 1 of the 40 runners who failed to finish last time out managed to win…
    …and that was the frustrating beast known as Ballynagour! The handicapper was clearly a bit miffed with him as well as he thumped him up 15lbs for the win to a career high of OR 155.

    This is four days where the best of the best lock horns and go hell for leather round the undulations of Prestbury Park. Coming in off the back of a non-completion is NOT an ideal prep.
    The bare figures are…

    1/40 | 2.5% S/R | -£25.74 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/40 10% S/R

    A non-completion is NOT ideal prep for the Festival, hell you might as well of ran on the All-Weather!!
    Staying on the last time out theme…
    .
    26 of the 27 winners started in the top 4 of the betting on their last start before the Festival…
    …as did 79 of the 92 win and place horses.

    That is quite a stat; all but one of the 27 Festival winners started in the top four of the betting on their last start. Once again we didn’t really have to dig too far to whittle the fields down in search of the winners. It’s remarkable how easy this game can be at times?!?!?

    The record of those that started 5th or higher in the betting last time out was…

    1/141 | 0.7% S/R | -£121.66 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/141 | 8.5% S/R

    The market was a fantastic guide last time out for Festival success; it is certainly something to keep in mind.
    .
    The (GER) & (USA) bred hurdlers once again failed to land a significant blow…
    Am I beginning to sound like a broken record? Maybe but this is one broken record you would do well to listen to!!
    There were not that many trying to bust the hoodoo this time around…

    0/6 | 0% S/R | -£6.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 1/6 | 17% S/R

    …but the ones that did try, failed.

    Add that to the figures from the last six Festivals and we get…

    0/83 | 0% S/R | -£83.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 9/83 | 11% S/R

    Take it back another couple of years and you get…

    1/135 | 0.7% S/R | -£130.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/135 | 13% S/R

    Woop Woop! A Winner! But that is still a hell of a lot of German bred and American bred hurdlers to have tried and failed to have won a Festival Hurdle race!

    Arctic Fire almost broke the hoodoo in the County Hurdle this year, but almost don’t cut it!

    There is something about the Festival environment and this sub-section of hurdlers that just doesn’t gel. The majority call is to AVOID them!
    .
    Henderson & Nicholls had a bit of a week to forget…
    Between them they managed to scrape together two winners. For the two most powerful yards this side of the Irish Sea, however, that just isn’t good enough.

    Pulling their combined powers together gave figures of…

    2/71 | 3% S/R | -£41.15 BFLSP – Win & place 14/71 | 20% S/R

    Henderson was without the dual power combo of Sprinter Sacre & Simonsig but he would surely have hoped for a couple more in the winners column. Is there something not quite right with his squad?

    Nicholls is possibly a bit more excusable as his team are going through a bit of a transition period. I guess the worrying aspect for him was that none of his Novice runners really stepped up to the plate. What will he have to go to war with at next season’s Festival?
    .
    Colin Tizzard also had a bit of a week to forget…
    …but then again he is having a bit of a season to forget!

    Cue Card being ruled out for the season was clearly a hammer blow and there was precious little else to lift his spirits over the four days…

    0/12 | 0% S/R | -£12.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 0/12 | 0% S/R
    Not even a sniff of the places for his 12 runners.

    He is well below what is normally expected of him with regards to number of winners (only 22 so far this season) and strike-rate (operating at 8%) this season but there have been problems at the yard, with a virus being the biggest issue in the early part of the season.
    Are the effects of that still lingering on?

    Will this result in a yard full of well-handicapped horses next season?

    Assuming everything is back to normal by next autumn (it really should be!) then it would be worth keeping a look out for his runners that took a slide down the handicap when the yard was clearly not at it’s best this season.
    .
    The upwardly mobile John Ferguson also drew a blank…
    …and the signs are that he still hasn’t quite mastered Cheltenham.

    John Ferguson is really starting to make a name for himself in the National Hunt sphere but when it comes to Cheltenham winners it seems he does have a bit still to learn.
    These are his festival figures for this year…

    0/10 | 0% S/R | -£10.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 0/10 | 0% S/R
    …and these are his overall figures at the track in general…

    0/31 | 0% S/R | -£31.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/31 | 13% S/R

    To my mind he just doesn’t have the horses to be competitive with at the demanding Cheltenham circuit.

    He has plenty of speedy ex-flat types and not enough robust National Hunt bred types. That may change with time but for now the figures say his runners are just not suited to the track.
    .
    The first 3 home in the Gold Cup were all dosage strong contenders…
    That is from a group of only 5 that went to post.

    For the record the Dosage figures of the first three home in this demanding test are…
    LORD WINDERMERE – 2-0-6-8-2 (18) | 0.38 | -0.44
    ON HIS OWN – 0-1-1-4-2 (8) | 0.23 | -0.88
    THE GIANT BOLSTER – 3-0-10-5-2 (20) 0.67 | -0.15

    All holding the generous splashing of stamina needed to take this contest.

    It begs the question why I jumped on-board the Silviniaco Conti train but hey, I’m human, I make mistakes, I viciously smacked myself round the chops on Friday evening for my stupidity and I’m over it. Thankfully it was the only real glaring error I made all week, double thankfully I’m bloody good at learning from my mistakes!
    .
    Ruby continues to ‘struggle’ over the larger obstacles…
    It is hard to believe but Ruby Walsh has not landed a race over the Festival fences in the last FIVE Festivals?!? Woooootttt?!? It’s true. He hasn’t converted at the Cheltenham Festival over fences since the 2009 Festival.
    This year he had five rides over fences and all were beaten. Champagne Fever was only just beaten on the line…but he WAS beaten.

    His figures over the Festival fences at the past five festivals read…
    0/39 | 0% S/R | -£39.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 3/39 | 7.5% S/R
    I think the most worrying thing about that set of figures is that he has only managed to get 3 of them home in the places!!
    Is this just one massive coincidental set of figures or is there more to it? Whatever it is the facts are it has been a massive drain on his supporters profits in recent seasons…

    So what were your highlights of the 2014 Festival?
    What was the most striking performance for you that left you wanting more?
    Which runner disappointed you the most?
    Let me know YOUR Festival thoughts in the Comments box below…

    http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk...nham-festival/

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  2. #2

    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    pontypridd
    Posts
    1,062
    Rep Power
    43
    plenty of food for thought there.nice post



  3. #3

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Big Field H'cap Chase anyone?

    http://www.winningraceprofiles.co.uk...e-Festival.php

    The Graded races are almost always more competitive than the betting suggests beforehand – whilst the handicap events are fiendishly difficult puzzles to solve with average fields of 20+ closely-matched horses – all tuned up and out to win – going to post.

    Some punters leave the big-field handicaps alone completely. Maybe that’s the shrewd move – or maybe it’s a decision that amounts to defeatism. It all depends on your perspective. But for me the big-field handicap races are where it’s at. The challenge appeals to me. So too do the double-figure prices available about ‘live’ contenders. For me the big handicaps represent opportunities to take on the market and – hopefully – come out the other end with a decently-priced winner or two.

    There are no guarantees of course.

    Whatever way you look at them, the handicap races are complex conundrums. And our cause is not aided by an entry system that deprives us of time. We must either spend a few hours sifting through the formbook minutiae of 20+ runners the night before the race. Or we need shortcuts that get us to the horses of most betting interest in double-quick time.

    That’s where the historic statistical record comes into its own….

    The stats enable us to play the percentages….

    I’ve been looking at the stats thrown up by the last 9 renewals of the 4 big handicap chases run at the Festival for older horses (not including the Cross Country Chase) – the Festival Handicap Chase, the Byrne Group Plate, the Kim Muir& the Grand Annual. What happened in those races gives us some strong indications about what kind of horses it will pay to seek out in the upcoming 2015 renewals….

    Focus your attention on horses aged 7- to 9-years-old – of the 36 handicap chase winners under consideration 29 fell into that age band.
    Make a dozen races your cut-off point in terms of experience – 30 of our 36 previous winners had raced no more than a dozen times over fences.

    Look for a recent visit to the track – it doesn’t generally pay to rely on horses returning to the track off a long layoff. Of our 36 winners 25 had raced in the last 6 weeks.

    Narrow your focus to a specific ratings band – 29 of the 36 previous winners were officially rated 130 to 145. Make those horses your primary focus. Also be aware that 24 of the previous 36 winners carried less than 11-00 and that 23 went to post wearing saddlecloth number 12 or bigger.

    Mares don’t have a great record in the Festival handicap chases – 20 to go to post in the last 36 such races haven’t produced a winner.
    Give claimers the swerve – over the last 9 years 188 horses have gone to post in a Festival handicap chase carrying a claimer and just 7 won (4 of those were carrying a rider with just a 3lb claim). Getting an apprentice on-board is not a strategy that has borne much fruit in recent times.

    Apply those stats to the runners going to post in this season’s handicap chases at the Festival and you’ll narrow the field down to a shortlist of qualified candidates. At that point I’d be most interested in horses saddled by specific trainers….

    The ones I’m thinking of are Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Venetia Williams, Ferdy Murphy, Jonjo O’Neill, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Donald McCain and Nigel Twiston-Davies….

    The recent record reveals that these top-drawer handlers have the happy knack of frequently producing and preparing horses to be competitive in the Festival handicap chases. Of the 144 horses to hit the first 4 in a handicap chase at the Festival since 2006, a total of 76 came out of one of the yards highlighted above. In other words 53% of win and place finishers came out of just 9 yards.

    One more piece of advice from me: Leave the single-figure SPs to the lemmings. Don’t be afraid to back at a big price in the handicap chases. Of our 36 winners 23 were sent off at SPs ranging from 12s to 66s and, of course, big-priced horses frequently hit the frame – delivering decent place returns. In races as competitive as the handicap chases at the Festival it verges on madness to bet short horses.

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  4. #4

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    I've had a couple of tips from someone who works for Pipe stable -

    Moon Racer in the bumper (no chance against the Mullin's legions surely)

    Kings Palace in RSA

    That's Pipe's best according to him

    But I've just been scanning the Triumph entries & if there's anything left worth doing:

    Lettre de Cachet 66's well bred for Giggingstown due to race on Sunday

    &

    Chartbreaker 33/s for Nicholls but no immediate entries.

    If they fail to make an impact I can't see beyond one of the Henderson mob

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  5. #5

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    H'mm, I was thinking that - surely Pipe is better in h'caps? But what? P Nicholls not had a non-h'cap chase winner at the festival since Master Minded & I quite fancy his chances of landing the Queen Mum, maybe Al Ferof

    But anyway, a long post but worth a read?

    Conclusions

    When betting at the Cheltenham Festival, most punters tend to make blithe assumptions that what holds in the rest of the season is equally applicable at the Fez.

    The data above imply that this is far from the truth, with target trainers like Jonjo O'Neill standing out, and seasonal perennials such as Paul Nicholls reflected in a slightly different light during Cheltenham week.

    It hopefully goes without saying that past results are not a guarantee of future performance, but they do offer some clear indications of what we might expect.

    Paul Nicholls is 0 from 46 in non-handicap chases in the last five years, a horror sequence which includes stacks of shorties in Grade 1's. But he remains a brilliant trainer, and he doesn't determine the prices of his horses. I personally hope he gets this monkey off his back; however, I certainly won't be wagering that way.

    Elsewhere, I'll be keeping close tabs on the handicap hurdle entries of Mullderscholls, in what appears the last remaining bastion of value for the trio at the top table of trainers at the Festival.

    In handicap chases, David Pipe is the man, and plunge horses may especially be heeded.

    Rebecca Curtis is another trainer to keep onside when it comes to the non-handicap events.

    I hope this little deconstruction gives pause for thought. 2015 may fly in the face of what has gone before, but that is not the way to bet it..."

    http://www.geegeez.co.uk/top-chelten...ival-trainers/

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  6. #6

    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    N Wales
    Posts
    50,310
    Rep Power
    275
    Pipe seems to be taking after his dad in the last few months, plotting up a few well handicapped horses. Mind you, we all know who is still pulling the strings in the yard.

    FREE Live Odds Comparison Software

    Keith Driscoll - Administrator
    Managing Director, Win2Win Limited



    Filipino UK Filipino Forum | Win2Win Racing - Free Tips


  7. #7

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Sail By The Sea 66's for Arkle if anyone account with William Hills interesting imho

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  8. #8

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Some RSA Trends:

    RSA Chase Trends

    As usual, trends cover the last seventeen renewals going back to 1997 (abandoned in 2001 due to foot and mouth), and are provided with thanks to horseracebase.com

    Age: 13 of the last 17 winners (76%) were aged seven. Indeed, 13 of the last 15 winners were, but let's not cherry-pick! Those 13 winners came from just 49% of the runners. None of the 23 horses aged nine or higher has won, and only one placed.

    Last Time Out:

    Finishing Position: All seventeen winners since 1997 finished in the first three last time out, with nine winning (53%, from 48% of the runners); six finishing second (35%, from 20% runners); and two finishing third (12%, from 11% runners).

    Grade: Although the four winners from 41 runners to have raced in Grade 1 company last time broke about even to level stakes, the four winners from 52 runners to have competed at Grade 2 level the last day were deeply unprofitable to follow. That was despite both being roughly in line with their 'expected' number of wins.

    Those horses coming into the RSA Chase from a last time run in an ungraded event won eight of 106 starts - again, about what should be expected from that number of runners. In other words, there is very little to be gleaned from the grade of race last time.

    Distance: None of the 44 runners stepping up from a race distance below 2m5f last time was able to win, while those to have raced between 2m5f and three miles the last day moving less markedly to the stamina-sapping three miles half a furlong here bagged 14 of the 17 renewals from 116 runners (82% winners from 56% runners). They were also worth a profit at SP of 21.33 points.

    This looks a material factor.

    Days since a run: Although Hanakham wheeled back to the track twenty days after his previous race back in 1997, all of the subsequent sixteen RSA Chase winners have had between three weeks and two months off the track. Further, those absent for between one and two months have claimed eleven of the seventeen (65%) from 83 runners (40%).

    Course of last run: Since 1997, RSA Chase winners last ran at Ascot (3 from 31); Exeter, Fontwell, Haydock, Huntingdon, Kempton, Newbury, Punchestown, Sandown, and Wincanton (one apiece); and Leopardstown (5 from 35).

    The following look noteworthy :

    - The three Ascot to RSA Chase winners all ran in the Reynoldstown Chase, two winning and one finishing second

    - The five Leopardstown to RSA Chase winners all ran in the Dr PJ Moriarty Novices' Chase, three winning, one second and one third.

    - The thirty runners to have competed last at either Kempton or Cheltenham have scored just once between them, that being Lord Noelie, who took in a run of the mill novice chase at the first-named track in 2000. Only one other horse was placed in the RSA having run at these two premier courses last time out.

    This year's Reynoldstown Chase will be run on 14th February, and the first two home should be noted. The result of the 2015 Dr PJ Moriarty Novices' Chase was:

    1st Apache Stronghold
    2nd Valseur Lido (beaten 1/2 length)
    3rd Adriana Des Mottes (beaten 5 lengths)

    Experience: Those with more experience of fences have fared best. To wit, those with between three and five chase starts under their belt claimed 14 of the last 17 RSA Chases (82%), from 134 runners (64%)

    Interestingly, perhaps, those coming into the RSA Chase unbeaten over fences are just two from 33 since 1997, for a huge 86% loss on stakes.

    Breeding: 15 of the last 17 winners have been Irish bred.

    At this stage, those with the best trends fits include Sausalito Sunrise, Apache Stronghold, If In Doubt and Deputy Dan.

    http://www.geegeez.co.uk/rsa-chase-2...w-trends-tips/

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


  9. #9

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Somersetshire
    Posts
    4,275
    Rep Power
    51
    Two free bundles of stats like:

    Cheltenham Stat #8

    Alan King has really been struggling with his
    Grade 1 and Grade 2 runners...
    0/46 | 0% S/R | -£46.00 BFLSP
    Win & Place 11/46 | 24% S/R
    For a trainer of King’s stature that’s a fair old
    lean spell at the top two levels. In fairness he has
    had a decent number in the places but that lack of a
    winner is a bit of a concern.

    Cheltenham Stat #9

    The Mullins/Walsh combo has been positively
    blitzing the festival hurdle scene...
    13/36 | 36% S/R | +£12.38 BFLSP
    Win & Place 21/36 | 58% S/R

    The power-duo clearly mean business when they gun for
    a Cheltenham Hurdle contest! A 36% win S/R and a 58%
    win & place S/R is phenomenal and they are the combo
    all others have to try and keep up with.

    Cheltenham Stat #10

    Gordon Elliott’s handicappers returning off a
    break of 32 days or more have a 45% win & place
    strike-rate...
    2/20 | 10% S/R | +£36.46 BFLSP
    Win & Place 9/20 | 45% S/R
    That may not seem all that impressive at first glance
    but when you think of how competitive the festival
    handicaps are then you simply have to give the
    trainer credit. Elliott is a shrewd operator and he
    will have his handicappers primed to the minute for
    their festival targets.

    Available:
    http://www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk...des-downloads/

    PS: GS can now be followed on Twitter as @themastarata


Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 2 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 2 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Punchestown Festival Favourite Stats
    By Win2Win in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&A
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 27th April 2012, 09:33
  2. Stats for Perth Racing Festival
    By Godspot in forum Sports Forum Chat
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 26th April 2011, 23:02
  3. Soon be the Cheltenham Festival
    By Win2Win in forum Horse Racing Discussion, Daily Waffle, Q&A
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 14th January 2008, 02:08

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Free Tips | Betting Advice | UK Horse Racing Tips | Free Bets | Staking Advice | Horse Racing Systems | Horse Racing Lays | Laying System | UK Horse Racing Tips | lay betting