40+ System

[wistda]

Hi all,

No, nothing to do with being an old salt; a dead easy system that over the past ten days of my trial has worked extremely well. Around 2 to 8 selections daily.

** 20 Points Profit in 10 days **

Use the course favourites page of the Racing Post website to identify those races at each meeting where statistically the favourite wins 40% of the time or more. That's it - no frills.

It has worked for both UK and Irish racing so far.

The only difficulty is in placing the bet on the right horse. Often enough the RP forecast favourite differs from the favourite at the start. To overcome this I'm going to be using an account with Blue Square which enables bets to be placed on the "unnamed favourite", albeit at SP only. Sure, Betfair may give a better price, but unless you're at the box all day you may end up with the wrong selection.

I'll aim to post the relevant races daily and keep a running total from today.

Comments welcome, especially if I'm repeating something someone is already on.

All the best.

[wistda]

After the disappointing early results I've tweaked this a bit and it seems to be going the right way. Still early days, but since the last adjustments on 23rd August it's done well, with 11.81 points profit, strike rate 61.54% from 26 selections. Missed a couple of days while sunning myself in Denmark.

The new method is rather more complex so I won't go into detail. Essentially the change is that I am now using favourites where statistically there is a 40%+ likelihood of a win, and a statistical 10%+ return on investment. If the RP forecast for the favourite is less than Evs I'm ignoring it. For the moment I'm obtaining the stats using the RP website for National Hunt & N.Ireland, and A.N.Other website which gives detailed flat racing records.

If anyone knows a website giving detailed National Hunt stats (preferably free) I'd be grateful if you'd let me know.

I'll start posting the selections again, starting from zero, using the revised method, and we'll see how it goes. Hopefully I haven't given it the kiss of death.

Oh yes, and the results quoted have all been at SP, betting on the "unnamed favourite".

[wistda]

It's about a month since I revamped this (records restarted 23.08.03) and all in all I'm reasonably happy with the result. I say this mainly because it seems the racing these past two weeks or so has been doing some pretty strange things. Taking that factor into account, it's done well to remain in profit at all. Once things settle down a little more I can see good potential to level stakes, and rather better potential with the right staking plan.

Results so far are:

No. of bets: 92
Wins: 44, 47.83%
Placed: 69, 75.00%
Unplaced:23, 25.00%
Longest winning run: 7 (29/30 August)
Longest losing run: 4 (9 September)

Profit to level stakes: +11.65 points

I'll not be posting selections for a few days - hitting the Autobahn o crack sparrow tomorrow and computer/phone etc stays behind! Back around the end of next week and I'll start a new thread for next month.

Happy punting in the meantime.

[GLENCROFT]

Ive been following a similar system sincew July 30 using the daily newpaper.

All results quoted assume a £10 win stake

Ive missed some days but blindly backing every 40% or more fasvourite has produced a profit of £257.36 since July 30

August +336
September -233 (ouch)
October +152 so far

However I switched to just backing the TOPRATED % Only and since July 30 this has produced a profit of £279.51.
If ignore odds-on using this system then that rises to £292.83 including a profit in the difficult month of September of £39.65

Ive tailored the system nowto be

"Select the highest rated favourite in the paper which is not odds-on"
If there are 2 or more with highest % then I back them all

I like it because its dead easy, normally just one bet a day , you catch the late heavily backed horse which gets made favourite just before the off, it costs nothing to get the tips (though the newsagent is sick of me scouring the paper and not buying). As you are not selecting a horse specifically you dont look in despair as your choices odds tumble- flat or NH it does not matter

Another slant is to take all the qualifiers and if there is
2 or 5 have double(s)
if 3 or 4 doubles trebles (and an accumulator if 4).

Based on £1 unit this has produced a profit of £381.50 though it tends to be based on 1 big win a month so you have to be preapred to take some losses before the wins.
All 4 have won once which was a £126 4-fold for £1 stake

Ive seen this selection system not recommended on some sites - all I know is for the first time in my life i'm making a profit and it is dead easy !

Winner today 40% fav record 1.40 Newmarket 3-1 !

[GLENCROFT]

My longest losing run was 5 days and longest winning run is also 5 days

October's stats :

%of wins odds res
50 9/4 WON
50 9/4 LOST
50 5/2 LOST
57 5/2 WON
90 1/2 WON
100 1/3 WON
50 9/4 LOST
67 10/3 WON
71 4/7 WON
75 8/11 LOST
71 4/11 LOST
50 2/1 WON
50 9/4 LOST
50 15/8 LOST
50 6/5 WON
40 3/1 WON

Ignoring odds-on : £10 level win stake £92.83
Odds-on lost £5.96

the full stats since July 30 :-

odds-on level or better
July (2 days) n/a £42.50
August (23 days) -£22.01 £132.50
Sept (23 days) £14.65 £22.50
Oct (till 16/10) -£5.96 £92.83

Total -£12.32 £292.83



40 3/1

[wistda]

Great stuff Glencroft, and yes, nice one today with Phantom Wind. We seem to be thinking along similar lines in looking for a simple system that works. I'm delighted with the way the 40+ has progressed. A few ups and downs but the strike rate holds good, and my bank for this is increasing steadily.

I'm still on a longest losing run of 4, and now have enough in the bank to do an element of loss recovery staking. For the past week or so I've been increasing the stake after a loser, just by 1 point, from starting at 5 points. This has already helped accelerate the bank by about 4 points.

As a matter of interest which newspaper do you use? I'm pretty much reliant on the Racing Post website as I'm outside the UK, and use their favourite tables, together with another stats database for the flat. It probably doesn't matter too much which paper is used, as long as it's the same one for consistency.

Also, where you say "highest rated favouríte", do you mean the fav with highest strike rate/chance of winning, or is it the one with the highest % return?

Cheers,
Bill.

[GLENCROFT]

Bill

I use the Daily Express

Today the paper just had

Best Races for favourites

40% New 1.40

There are no figures of return or even how many years back the data
goes

So if i get say

50% Newmarket 2.15
50% Sedgefield 3.30
43% Pontefract 4.00

I will back the first 2 as equal top assuming level stakes or greater
and a double probably on them as well.

being human if im in decent profit after first two i'll have a tickle on the 3rd one !

September was bad for backing all the entries in the paper but October is showing £150 profit although I missed a saturday when there were about 12 selections in the paper.

Im aiming for £10 level stakes having started at £1 have got to £4 level so far - trying to build my bank up.


Glencroft

[GLENCROFT]

last reply should read

I back the top two equal rated if odds are level or better

[bigcumba]

That looks like a decent system there Glencroft, might be tempted to try it myself, even if it means me buying the Express... :)

Any chance of posting the qualifiers in the systems area? There's a monthly £10 Amazon voucher up for grabs to the best contribution in that part of the forum...

I'll get rid of your duplicate posts for you - I assume you had trouble getting the post to go through - had a problem myself a few minutes ago. Sorted :)

[GLENCROFT]

Thanks - untested over a jumps season is my only concern

I've got a copy off all the results in a spreadsheet but not the horses name or course or times of races - sometimes i dont even know the horses name - just look for that F in the result !

I very rarely buy the Express just have a quick gander in the newsagent.

If there are too many to remember then I will buy it

[bigcumba]

I very rarely buy the Express just have a quick gander in the newsagent.

If there are too many to remember then I will buy it

Keep building up the profits like you are just now and you'll be able to buy it every day! I'll give it a go myself anyway, should be interesting to see how it works over the jumps and AW this winter. Thanks for posting the rules... :)

[Iron Chris]

Hi, Wistda & Glencroft - seems that you may have found a fgood one very easily.

I get the Express at the weekend and it is easy to pick the relevant races but have been on RP site and only found results for the horse ages & race types - am I missing something easy or do you then have to apply these to the days races?

[wistda]

Hello Iron Chris,

If you are on the RP site, go to "todays racing" on the left side menu. Once the first meeting comes up you can select "course favourites" from the Betting Pointers menu on the right. It gives the %strike rate and ROI for certain race categories. Quite easy then to narrow down which favourites you want to follow.

Ah - Having just re-read your mail it looks like you already know this! As far as I'm aware you will have to look at each race yourself and compare it against the tables given.

[wistda]

I've decided to relax the rules a little for this system as there are few qualifyers of late. The crucial point to its success is the high strike rate. A level stakes profit should be readily achieved, and sensible staking will enhance the return. So far the max losing run remains 4, and the strike rate holds at around 43%. LSP 17.12% in just under 2 months. I'm currently just over 26 pts up with simple, increase stakes after a loser system, which I started a few weeks ago.

The relaxation is that I'm leaving out the 10% ROI requirement. To qualify the favourite must have won statistically at least 40% of the time, and forecast odds must be evens or greater.

[wistda]

It seems the relaxation in the rules has knackered things. The next amendment:

Future selections must provide likelihood of 40%+ strike rate, and only qualifyers showing a +ve past return to £1 stakes will be included. Forecast odds must be Evs or greater.



It's still early in the month, so hopefully can get back to a plus before the end.

[Vegas]

Has anyone continued to follow this and if so has it been profitable.
Cheers

[podtog]

Glencroft still does updates on his system, look in the systems thread.