The distancestrike System

[manckevin]

Using data found on another brilliant stats site, I am able to, and intend to, in this system, identify horses which have a higher strike rate of wins over other horses in the same race during the previous twelve month period.

The system only applies to Flat Racing (on all surfaces) and in handicap races only (unless there is a compelling reason for me to include them otherwise) :wink

On check back there have been some good priced wins and places in the last few days alone, and although wins are not a totally regular occurrence it would be nice to see how this shapes up in the weeks and months to come.

If anyone has any comments, please feel free as I do hope to improve the system substantially during what is now the trial period.

[bigcumba]

Good luck mate - always interested in watching systems like this! :)

[manckevin]

I'll need it - just backtracked for the whole month and it doesn't actually look all that good (March 1-20 it's -9.00pts but March 21-26 it's +15.00pts) :)

Crap S/R (around 10-15%) but some decent priced winners, including 20/1, 14/1, 10/1 etc. etc. and some decent priced 2nd and 3rds!

[bigcumba]

Sounds like you might be on to something, but it'll need quite a few more qualifiers to get a better picture. Maybe a decent staking plan would help given the SR is low but some of the prices are good.

[manckevin]

Well if anyone can offer advice on that, I'm all ears. Longest losing streak (counting winners only) since 21 March is 11, previous from March 1 to 20 it was 13 so something like whacking 10% of bank on is not going to work.

I'm no expert when it comes to staking, I'd rather quote everything to £1 level stakes (and even that confuses me at times), but I'd like to be able to maximise the big wins as much as possible.

Like I say, any comments welcome. I'm still tweaking the system, and may introduce additional criteria as things move on.

[MarcusMel]

Tried to run this idea through the Racing System Builder (RSB) software and could not think of a way to do it with the variables available. This is a service we offer (time permitting) to paying members.:)

[manckevin]

That's just reminded me to make a nasty call to BTClick&Buy sometime ;)

EDIT: Fat lot of good that did - they don't know what's up and no-one can look at it till Monday! Bloody BT!!!