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manckevin
6th April 2004, 22:10
Instead of hijacking DZ's thread, I'll post them in my own!

CRITERIA
Beaten favourite in last race.
Must have won in at least one of last three races.
Priced at 6/1 or above (forecast price).

It really is that simple! Worked for me a while back, when I did it just on the flat, but I've found it works just as well on both, and of course with the price criteria can find some decent winners.

Kevin

John
7th April 2004, 00:20
Hi Kevin,

Definitely seems like a nice system so far from the results in the other thread! I'll keep a close eye on it. Do you have any stats for it?

manckevin
7th April 2004, 00:44
I've tinkered with it, but since it went on to including the win in last three (26 March) it shows (26 March to 6 April):
53 selections
6 winners 3/1, 9/1, 13/2, 12/1, 13/2, 12/1
16 places

11.32% Win SR
30.19% Place SR

£1 Level Stakes Win Bank +£3.00

NH was included on 1 April. From that time (1 April to 6 April):
34 selections
5 winners
7 places

All other stats are tied into the data from 26 March and I really can't be bothered to work them out - yet :)

Things do appear to have improved in the last four or five days.

Kevin

John
7th April 2004, 02:43
Cheers Kevin, will be watching with a keen interest. :)

manckevin
7th April 2004, 02:50
Yeah, it'll fall flat on it's face over the next week now - you watch!

Kevin

MarcusMel
7th April 2004, 11:25
To repeat a bit of advice given by keith - a system should be tested for 100 selections. So one week should not be considered significant.

manckevin
7th April 2004, 11:28
It's always in "test" mode - certainly until the flat settles down a bit as well! Constant tweaking is, and I think should be, a constant part of any successful "system".

Kevin

MarcusMel
7th April 2004, 11:42
Too frequent tweaking wont tell you anything. Unless you have acess to lots of past results and and the software to test out ideas. Then looking at the last 3 months of results for filters to tweak. A system is a LONG TERM exercise. A bit like putting money in a high interest account and letting it accumulate over time.

manckevin
7th April 2004, 11:45
Understand completely, I was just trying to sound sensible (for once)!!!

Kevin

ryalux
7th April 2004, 12:07
this isn't my cup of tea.

manckevin
7th April 2004, 12:11
this isn't my cup of tea.

Ignore it then! And what's tea??? :drinkme :D

ryalux
7th April 2004, 12:24
manckevin it originates from china & you can put lemon in, it improves the flavour, if you go in the ritz they will charge you a hundred quid for afternoon tea (cheap at half the price).

manckevin
7th April 2004, 13:47
I'll stick with my co-op Fair Trade Rich Roast ta :D

Win2Win
7th April 2004, 15:42
Budgie's go 'cheap' not tea :doh