New to betting (Just Purchased System)

[roundisland]

Hi

I'm totally new to horses and betting of any kind.

I have just purchased a system off of ebay silly me, after reading your forums I realise it's avalible for free here, you do get a spead sheet thrown in which does the calculations for you. Below I have added a description of how the system works.

I have been following it on paper and it seems to me as long as you stay with it you will come good in the end. I was using Templegate for my selections. I suppose it depends on what sort of loosing runs he has. Is it common for a newspaper tipster to have loosing runs of 20 or more?

Are these systems ok with bookmaker or will they close your account if they suspect you of using a system?

Any advice or experieces of this system much appreciated.



1. Points: This shows the amount you wish to profit by at the end of each race. Each point equals £1.
2. Time: This is the time of the race you are betting on.
3. Horse: This is the selection you are backing
4. Odds: This is the odds at which you placed your bet.
5. Stake: this is the stake you placed at the odds shown at column 4.
6. Result: Here you put the result of the race, win(W), or lose(L)
7. W/L: This is the winnings (with stake),or the amount needed to get back in profit.
8. Profit: This is a profit from a win.
9. Points: This is points required for the next race.

On your first day you start with 10 points (£) in column 1. Once you know the odds for your horse, the program works out the stake to be placed to make the points target in column 1.

On the excel sheet only write in the 5 WHITE columns. Do not enter anything in the green columns as the program will do this for you.

Enter the time of the race and the name of the selection. In the two columns ‘ODDS v ODDS’ enter the first half of the odds in the first and the second half in the second. E.G. 7/2 would be 7 v 2.
The software will then show you what to stake.

Using the points figure in column 1, it divides that by the FIRST number of the odds in column 4, then multiplies that figure by the second figure in column 4.

This gives you the amount to stake. The software always rounds UP this figure to the nearest £5 ABOVE that figure. Here is an example: Column 1 shows 10 points. Odds of 7/2, therefore 10 divided by 7 = 1.42 x 2 = 2.85.
It rounds this up to the nearest £5 = £5 stake which is entered in column 5. The stake is returned on a win so you have made a profit of £17.50 on the race.

If you win, the cycle is over and your total profit is shown in the last column. You can now delete the contents of the white cells and start again

Thanks

Patrick

[TheOldhamWhisper]

Hi Patrick,

Welcome to the forum. Sorry you couldn't get to us first - Win2Win has many profitable systems for free and some others reserved for members only. The 'system' you have bought is nothing more than a staking plan but the spreadsheet could come in handy. I wouldn't bother using a newspaper tipster though, you'll have far more success simply using the shortest priced favourite of the day (another free system on Win2Win) which has a very high strike rate.

And don't worry about bookies closing accounts - open an account with Betfair links available on the main page - you'll get approximately 20% better odds than the average bookie and they WANT you to win money as they only take commission on your winnings!

[bigcumba]

Welcome aboard Patrick,

as Oldham has said above it would have been a wee bit better if you had found us first, but no real harm done. Certainly the spreadsheet will be useful, and as Oldham said the free systems will be your best bet for now, and if you feel like joining as a paid up member you'll have access to more profitable systems. As for joining Betfair - it's a must - anyone not using the exchanges is losing out all the time.

Good luck!

[Win2Win]

Newspaper tipsters are just that 'tipsters'. They are paid for tipping in every race. A professional punter is much more selective in what he backs, and does not do so without knowing in advance the odds are in his/her favour.

Most professional if they are not on track betting live (and getting better than SP), will use the excahnges the majorioty of the times. It easily turns a losing system into a potential winning one.

As for the staking plan, too much work for an unknown return. Much simpler one's exist. If the system doesn't profit on level stakes, then don't bother with it unless you have a huge betting bank, are using small stakes, and are very good at maths and statistics.

[roundisland]

Thanks for the replays. I have just opened an account with betfair as recommended. I have only started to use the staking plan with small bets starting at 10pts = .50p I managed to accumulate £49.00 yesterday starting with a bank of £23.00.

I'm know mathematician and don't laugh but I'm not even sure what level stakes are, but the calculations are all done for you. If anyone want's I'm happy to email them the whole package that I purchased for a furthur look.

Cheers

Patrick

[Onlyforfun]

I may be wrong, but I think this staking plan may be a bit dangerous, it sounds to me like a keep increasing your stakes to win a set amount until you hit a winner. Even with a modest target, a losing run of 6 or 7 can get scary (I used to use this aiming to win £5 per sequence on a favs system and got up to bets of well over £100 a few times.Gave it up as bad for my health!

[vegyjones]

Especially when you start backing 2-9 jolly's

:yikes:

[Onlyforfun]

Had to be evens or better with a few other criteria to bring the sr up. To put my original point better, if you start with a target of £5:

Bet 1: Odds = 1/1, stake = £5
Bet 2: Odds = 1/1. stake =£10
Bet 3: Odds = 1/1, stake = £20
Bet 4: Odds = 1/1, stake = £40
Bet 5: Odds = 1/1, Stake = £80

By this stage you have effectively staked £155 to win a fiver. Odds of 1/31! :yikes:

Even with a 40% sr (a newspaper tipster will be a lot less) losing runs of 6 or 7 are not uncommon.

[Merlin]

If a system dont show a profit on level stakes - BIN IT...

A staking system will never turn a losing system into a winning one - remember staking systems are really there to increase profit not PRODUCE PROFIT....

Good luck,
Merl.

[Win2Win]

That doesn't exactly ring true these days Merlin, especially if you use Betfair.

Last year 6 months of the Draw Bias system broke even at SP, and £1000 profit on Betfair.

[Merlin]

That doesn't exactly ring true these days Merlin, especially if you use Betfair.

Last year 6 months of the Draw Bias system broke even at SP, and £1000 profit on Betfair.

Sure Keith, but you are a very experienced professional - most people are not...

So , as a general rule I would still say if a system dont profit from level stakes then bin it...

Good Luck,
Merl.

[davefretwell]

If you had look on here first you would have found the very same staking plan mentioned on one of my posts, Staking Plan for Halfway House System.
I bought it some years ago but you had to work out the stakes yourself.
I would be interested in receiving the updated version if possible.
Cheers Dave Fretwell.

[roundisland]

Hi Dave,

Please let me have an email address and I will send the full package to you.

I would be keen to here what you think of it.

Cheers

Patrick

[Win2Win]

You can publish it in the Downloads of the Members area, no one else can see it.

[Sherlock]

Hi,

new to this site and looking to re-new my interest in horse racing.

This is a system I was using which was initially successful but ended up costing me my stake money. The system is great if you can regularly pick a winner - aren't they all!!!!

On this system if yu are picking longer priced horses then the stakes do not rise too quickly but obviously your chances of winning are reduced. If you stick with shorter priced horses the stakes can rise quite dramatically. Using a 5 pound base stake with shirter priced horses your stakes will soon be in the hundreds. This system isn't to be used with odds on horses.

I think the system could be profitable with a sound and patient selection method, (I think this was my downfall) and discipline. I was looking to put a limit of 7 or 8 loses as a cut off point. My downfall was going over this with a short price favourite that couldn't lose!!!!!! No prizes for guessing the result.

Anyway if you can find a source that provides a winner, not at odds on, 1 in every 6 or 7 races I would say go for it. Oh and let me know.

Hi Merlin how you doing. I remember that special day on best of the Bets when you had that massive accumulator. Any repeats?

Good luck Phil

[Merlin]

Hi Phil,

Not sure which acca your refering to - was it the longshot acca on a Sunday, or the 50 quid acca over the jumps ?

Anyway - these days I mostly bet singles - but will be playing some accas when the national hunt season kicks in properly...

Good luck,
Merl.

[KC*]

@ Roundisland.

I know this system and it will work but as others have posted it just takes a bad run to kill off your bank.

I'll try and give 2 examples:

If you use this spreadsheet with a tipster such as TEMPLEGATE and have a bank of £10,000 then you can last a bad run of approx 21 horses depending on odds for each horse and the way you use the spreadsheet. This will bring in £10 per horse even if it loses as the next bet increases the stake to get back losses and increase by 10 pts (£10).

You could however change the spreadsheet slightly to 5pts (£5 per horse) and this should make you last a few horses longer (25 approx) but if TEMPLEGATE has a bad run and does not choose 1 winner from 1 day of racing then this will be the death of your bank, TEMPLEGATE chooses 3 meetings, most meetings have 6 - 8 races = approx 21 races.

You could try the favourites instead of TEMPLEGATE but due to the odds being the lowest your losing run could not be longer than approx 14 horses otherwise your £10k bank will be empty.

You could however leave off any fav's of even's or less and this will increase the length of your losing run a little but take a look at the following dates & meetings of 1 month ago:

20/08 Ayr
21/08 Chester
22/08 Southwell
23/08 Hamilton
23/08 Southwell
24/08 Brighton
24/08 Worcs
25/08 Brighton

These all had no favourites of above evens winning!

So as you can see this method is exciting and profitable for a very short term and then it will wipe you out.


KC