Mathare's Germany 2006 Bets

[mathare]

I'll be having a few different types of bet this time round but mostly I'll be trading. I'm not going to give a detailed analysis of why I will be placing these bets/trades so you'll just have to trust/ignore me as you see fit.

Outright Lays
Brazil @ 4.1
England @ 8.6
Both are too short and are value lays

Outright Backs
I'm not 100% sure on these bets but every time I do a set of predictions for this tourney I struggle to see past these two in the final:
Argentina @ 8/1
Italy @ 10/1
I've quoted Bet365 prices there as they are doing a free bet offer so I could back Argentina and then back Italy with the free bet. Like I said, not 100% sure about these bets but they are on the shortlist anyway.

Outright Trades
I'll be backing:
Czech Republic @ 40
Mexico @ 70
Ukraine @ 75
Ivory Coast @ 100
Poland @ 200
with a view to trading them all off when they reach the knockout stages, which I am confident they all will.

Golden Boot Trades
I'll be backing:
Shevchenko @ 27
Borgetti @ 55
Drogba @ 120
Cristiano Ronaldo @ 130
with a view to trading them all off when their price drops after bagging a couple in the group stages.

Spreads
I bought at 278 on the total yellow cards and the line has now gone up to 270-280. It will go higher during the group stages before coming back down again so I will close out towards the end of the group games.

[mathare]

That's the Poland bet basically done for. They now need to beat Germany and Costa Rica to make it through really. The price has drifted out to around 700 on Betfair too.

Going to look to make a few short term trades on these opening round games. Sweden should easily see off Trinidad & Tobago so I'll be backing the Swedes at 40. Similarly I'm backing the Argies at 10.5 and looking for them to see off Ivory Coast. I'll be laying both bets off again later when the price drops.

[mathare]

I think Klose is too short at 8.6/9 on Betfair's top goalscorer market too. The Swedes could easily could two goals through Larsson or Ibrahimovic in the next game which would push Klose's odds out. But this is a bit more of a long-term trade (over the space of a few games probably) and is the wrong way round for the trades I am trying to do. That is I would have to lay now and back later leaving me open to a greater liability and that ties up more of my bank.

If Ibrahimovic starts I will have a small bet on him as top scorer with a view to trading out later. He's currently 44/48 on Betfair.

[mathare]

I traded off my Argies bet at 8.4 late last night to lock in profit there.

Of course Sweden and Ibrahimovic have drifted following the 0-0 against T&T but there is still a chance for them to come back down again in the remaining group games.

I saw enough in the last game to convince me that Holland won't top their group. The Ivory Coast are up next for the Dutch and if the Africans can go at them with the same tempo as the did the Argies last night then the Dutch will concede at least one and may only get a draw there. I've put in a decent order at 2.18 for the Dutch not to win Group C.

Edit: Drifted out to 2.4 in the few hours since the game ended so I have cancelled the order. There are better opportunities to use that money for

[mathare]

That's Borgetti probably out the tournament now then. But a win for Mexico trims their odds a little (in to 60/65 from 75)

The big move appears to be on Cris Ronaldo though, in to 65/70 now from the 140 I backed him at and he's yet to kick a ball. Will let him at least face Angola this evening before trading out though

[mathare]

Portugal will surely beat Angola comfortably, but by how many? I'm tempted by the Over 1.5 goals at 1.32 as that's a sure thing isn't it? But then Portugal are the same odds to win the game so I'm not sure.

I am considering dutching Portugal/Portugal and Draw/Portugal on the Ht/FT market too. I will wait till nearer kick-off to decide on my bets though

[presto]

the booking's market may also be one to look at, as (though i am not sure) - as wasn't angola a portugese ruled colony. and the angolans hate the portugese? so maybe if portugal go a few goals up things ay turn nasty.

i backed portugal @ 1.44 for the match odds - so will just stick with that.

[mathare]

I've backed Portugal outright at 25 with a view to laying off after they beat Angola.

The return from dutching draw/Portugal and Portugal/Portugal is no better than just backing Portugal to win. Hmmm.

[mathare]

the booking's market may also be one to look at, as (though i am not sure) - as wasn't angola a portugese ruled colony. and the angolans hate the portugese? so maybe if portugal go a few goals up things ay turn nasty.The line certainly seems to be set high but I have been expecting more bookings than there have been to date. The refs are letting a lot of diving go unpunished it seems so I'm not sure about this market

[MattR]

The HH and DH seems a good option Mat. Portugal are not the biggest of scorers, they did get 35 in 12 qualifying games but 11 of those were against Luxembourg and also a bit of a freak 7-1 against Russia. They got two in both games against Leichenstein as well, so I would expect something like 2-0 3-0 tonight perhaps? Then again we don't get to see african sides against european sides very often so it can be hard to judge just how good/bad they are. While not as good as Ivory Coast i'm sure they'll prove difficult to beat. (Wait for the 5-0 now :D )

[presto]

bit of class from figo there

[mathare]

I went for the draw/Portugal and Portugal/Portugal dutch in the end.

Ronaldo has done everything except score too. Great header that hit the bar and fantastic shot well saved

[John]

Wondering whether or not to trade off 2 of my 4 correct scores now that they're shorter (2-0, 3-0 Portugal). Things are getting a bit anxious for me now...

[mathare]

Should have traded my Cris Ron bet off before kick off when his odds halved :splapme

[mathare]

I'll be bunging a few quid on South Korea to beat Togo @ 2.6.

Czech Republic are in to 28/29 on the outright market but that ought to come in further after their next group game (Ghana) so I won't trade out on this one yet.

[glynners]

Thats good odds that Mat, where'd you get 2.6? I only got 2.05 on betfair

[mathare]

Thats good odds that Mat, where'd you get 2.6? I only got 2.05 on betfairWell spotted. Typo. Should be 2.06 :splapme

[glynners]

Gutted, thought you'd found a good 'un there mate!

[vegyjones]

Maybe not quite that good! :yikes:

[mathare]

Good goal by Togo that

[vegyjones]

Korea have been poor so far!
Would expect better in the 2nd half,
but they are playing so poorly, it's hard to see how they will turn it around!

[mathare]

Ooh - have some of that! Fantastic free kick

[vegyjones]

And there sums up, Vegy's sports analysing skills! Ooo

[vegyjones]

Good goal by Togo that
Not as good as that! :clp Ooo

[mathare]

For the sake of a few pence I have traded out at 1.08 to lock in a slight profit in the unlikely case of a draw or a Togo win

[mathare]

Toying with a lay of 0-0 in the France v Switzerland game at 8.6. I can't see this ending goalless with the ball moving as much as it has been. I think only games with a big underdog, such as T&T v Sweden the other day, will see a 0-0 game with one side really holding on for the no score draw. Goals between better sides are more likely to end with at least one goal in.

[mathare]

I don't like those odds on the 0-0 much but I am sure it won't end with that scoreline. I am toying with a lay of the 0-0 HT score for a higher risk and better return

EDIT: Layed the 0-0 at HT at odds of 2.88 which seems like a better bet to me. Briefly thought about backing 0-0 HT and trading out within 10 minutes but chickened out of it. Perhaps something to consider in other games though.

[mathare]

Well the French had a few good chances and the Swiss hit the post but it was 0-0 at the break. That costs me what I won on Korea earlier so no damage done on the day really.

I've dutched draw/Brazil and Brazil/Brazil in the HT/FT market for a better profit than just backing Brazil this evening. I can't see them not winning this and Croatia are not the same side they used to be so them leading at HT would be a real shock.

[mathare]

Brazil just about delivered to ensure a profit on the day yesterday.

The trades aren't looking too hot at the minute, I must admit. But that's partly because I am neglecting my original intention to trade those bets. With that in mind I have layed off Mexico at 55 and Czech Republic at 26.

Spain have only won 1 of their last 9 opening tournament fixtures so I will be laying these perennial under-achievers at 1.94 (or lower if I can get it)

[mathare]

Hmm, Spain 2-0 up already

[mathare]

I got a free £5 bet on today's games so I have put it on Ecuador at 10/11.

I'll be avoiding the England game from a gambling point of view and nothing strikes me about the Sweden game at this stage but I might have a look again later

[mathare]

Hurrah! Free money :D

The bookies are reporting a lot of money coming in on 4-0, 5-0 and 6-0 for England this evening. Nah. The Betfair punters are going for 3 goals it seems (over 2.5 is fav in that market with under 3.5 fav in the corresponding under/over market).

If I were to play on this game (which I said I wouldn't) I would take the 1.25 on offer for over 1.5 goals

[mathare]

As it was a free bet I have decided to play up the winnings and see what I can turn it into.

£4.55 on Argentina at 8/15 is the first bet

[mathare]

Closing out my spread at 303 for a 25pt profit. I won't be around to monitor it for the next week or so and that's a decent enough profit for me. Plus it frees up some funds for another little play...

I see both Brazil and Australia as attack-minded sides with ageing defences so I can see a good game coming up here. The Aussies often hand out a kicking to sides too so the bookings line at 56-60 is interesting, although probably not far enough out to warrant a bet.

Corners at 10.5-11 and X-Corners at 25-28 are the markets I have my eye on at the minute. I am tempted by buying both lines at present but I will monitor the lines over the next 15-20 minutes before striking any bets

[mathare]

Bought both lines as suggested above

[mathare]

Both markets make up bang on the line I bought at so zero profit and zero loss on each bet.

[mathare]

I got right into the spreads while I was on holiday and I'm having another crack here.

BUY corners Italy v Australia @ 11 and BUY X-corners @ 27

[mathare]

Ahem, yeah, well. 2-2 on corners for a big loss on both bets.

Got a bit back today with a buy of corners at 10.25 (13) and David Villa goal minutes at 13 (28). I was going to put them up before the game started but I didn't get chance and I didn't really want to as my spread bets had been poor recently so I figured it was best to keep my shame to myself.