Systems question

[wb]

I currently have one of my own systems on trial (a handicap WIN system) The problem is that the system often produces 2 selections in the one race.

Anyone else have this problem with their systems?

Should I back both selections using the full stake on each, or should I dutch them using a single stake. Should it even out in the end whichever I do?

[mathare]

Should I back both selections using the full stake on each, or should I dutch them using a single stake. Should it even out in the end whichever I do?Personally I would back them both to a full stake but I would do some papertrading/testing to see whether that way or dutching is best. When testing the dutching I'd try a single stake and a double stake too. Or rather I'd test the dutches using a single stake and the same number of stakes as there are selections in the dutch.

Short of testing these things there is no easy way of determining which would be best for you here Wayne

[wb]

Thanks mat. I think I will run a 3 seperate spreadsheets and see which is best:

-Back both with full stake
-Dutch using single stake
-50% of stake on each

[mathare]

Try the dutch with a double stake instead of that last option. 50% of stake on each is effectively the same as backing both to full stake only the profits/losses will be halved.

If you are prepared to risk two stakes on the race backing to level stakes use the same total stake for the dutch too and see how that works out.

Actually, thinking about it you only need two test cases don't you? Back them both to equal stakes and dutch them both with the same total stake as the level stakes case. Anything else is just a fraction of those cases.

[wb]

Try the dutch with a double stake instead of that last option. 50% of stake on each is effectively the same as backing both to full stake only the profits/losses will be halved.

If you are prepared to risk two stakes on the race backing to level stakes use the same total stake for the dutch too and see how that works out.

Actually, thinking about it you only need two test cases don't you? Back them both to equal stakes and dutch them both with the same total stake as the level stakes case. Anything else is just a fraction of those cases.

Yep. That makes sense. Thanks Mat. It's only on paper at the moment, so I can afford to try it out with a couple of staking plans.

I suppose one other option would be to back the highest priced horse with the full stake, and leave the other one out.

If the system produces two selections, in theory, they have the same chance of winning, so it would makes sense to back the higest priced one no?
Although this would not take into consideration the fact that lower prices horses win more often in reality.

Anyway, as I said, It is on paper, so I can try all of this out.

[mathare]

If the system produces two selections, in theory, they have the same chance of winning, so it would makes sense to back the higest priced one no? Although this would not take into consideration the fact that lower prices horses win more often in reality.A quick staking plan check to see whether backing the highest priced selection or lowest priced selection is more profitable sounds like the order of the day here :)

This is the ideal time to do all the hard work and analysis so that if you do go live and start putting cash on it you maximise your chances of a decent profit. There is no substitute for hard work in this game really.

[Street cry]

if you put apoint on all bets you have to put a point on each as they are relative to all the other 1 point bets you have had , your winners have to be compensative and more to all your losers so if you have 2 bets in a race say 4 and 5 to1 in a big handicap and the 5 /1 wins you have a net 4 points to add to your previous betting bank where as at half stakes you'd only net 2 .
Just see em as seperate bets the fact that1 will deffo lose and theya are in the same event is negligable , just my opinion but the way i would play it good luck sc