Healio's Fav Challenge...............

[Healio]

Going to give this a try, it is going to be 2 different challenges in the one thread, £1000 starting in each:

First is the, Off to a Flyer(OFT) selections, This will be a bet on the first Fav at each meeting daily.
The other is the Get Out of Jail(GOJ) selections, which will be a bet on the last Fav at each meeting.

Selections are for unamed favs. Daily stakes will be 5% of total bank, divided by the number of selections. Irish Racing is included.
From (10/02/07) stakes will be 3% of the Bank per selection.

The aim is obviously to reach 5000 mythical pound, but also i want to see how this works out over a good bit of time.

I have been paper-trading January so far:
66 races(abandoned meetings included with return being entered as 0):
OTF - 27 wins 6 NR (45% SR 27/60) +37.70pts
GOJ - 27 wins 6 NR (45% SR 27/60) +71.25 pts

I have gone back to September and trialed it up to the end of December, starting with 1000 each month. The data was promising (well for the OTF selections):

December (140 races)
OTF - 50 wins 5 NR (37% SR 50/135) -77.53pts
GOJ - 40 wins 9 NR (31% SR 40/131) -209.21pts
November (136 races)
OTF - 62 wins 1 NR (46% SR 62/135) +83.59
GOJ - 52 wins 2 NR (39% SR 52/134) -1.66
October (128 races)
OTF - 47 wins 2 NR (37% SR 47/126) +169.26
GOJ - 38 wins 3 NR (30% SR 38/125) -134.55
September (127 races)
OTF - 47 wins 0 NR (37% SR 47/127 ) +42.55
GOJ - 44 wins 2 NR (35% SR 44/125 ) +123.6

Total P/L for (Sep '06 - Dec '06)
OTF - +217.87
GOJ - -221.82

If there are any comments/suggestions to improve this feel free to post :wink .

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1000pt
Today's Stake: 10pt
Hay 12:50 - Fav -10.00
Kemp 3:45 - Fav -10.00
Ling 1:05 - Fav +25.00
Naas 1:15 - Fav -10.00
Winc 1:15 - Fav -10.00
Loss: -12.50
New Bank: 987.5

GOJ
Bank: 1000pt
Today's Stake: 10pt
Hay 4:00 - Fav -10.00
Kemp 6:20 - Fav -10.00
Ling 4:15 - Fav +18.75
Naas 4:15 - Fav +13.75
Winc 4:25 - Fav +25.00
Win: 37.50
New Bank: 1037.50

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 987.50
Today's Stake: 12.34
Cork 1:45 Fav +21.6
Fairy 1:00 Fav +27.77
Towc 1:40 Fav -12.34
Wolv 1:20 Fav +24.68
Win: 61.70
New Bank: 1049.20

GOJ
Bank: 1037.50
Today's Stake: 12.97
Cork 4:15 Fav -12.97
Fairy 1:00 Fav -12.97
Towc 4:10 Fav +29.18
Wolv 4:20 Fav -12.97
Loss: -9.73
New Bank: 1027.77

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1049.20
Today's Stake: 26.23
Wolv 1:35 Fav +16.14
Kemp 1:20 Fav -26.23
Loss: -10.09
New Bank: 1039.11

GOJ
Bank: 1027.77
Today's Stake: 25.69
Wolv 4:40 Fav -25.69
Kemp 4:25 Fav +70.65
Win: +44.96
New Bank: 1072.73

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1039.11
Today's Stake: 17.32
Sed 1:30 Fav 0.00
Sou 12:40 Fav -17.32
Thur 1:20 Fav +38.97
Win: 21.65
New Bank: 1060.76

GOJ
Bank: 1072.73
Today's Stake: 17.88
Sed 4:00 Fav 0.00
Sou 4:10 Fav -17.88
Thur 4:20 Fav +24.59
Win: 6.71
New Bank: 1079.44

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1060.76
Today's Stake: 17.68
Hunt 12:30 - Fav +24.31
Ling 12:50 - Fav -17.68
Catt 1:10 - Fav -17.68
Loss: -11.05
New Bank: 1049.71

GOJ
Bank: 1079.44
Today's Stake: 17.99
Hunt 4:00 - Fav -17.99
Catt 4:10 - Fav -17.99
Ling 4:20 - Fav +53.97
Win: +17.99
New Bank: 1097.43

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1049.71
Today's Stake: 13.12
Font 1:20 - Fav +5.83
Gowr 1:15 - Fav -13.12
Sou 1:00 - Fav -13.12
War 1:10 - Fav +5.83
Loss: -12.91
New Bank: 1036.80

GOJ
Bank: 1079.44
Today's Stake: 13.72
Font 4:20 - Fav -13.72
Gowr 4:25 - Fav -13.72
Sou 4:00 - Fav +48.02
War 4:10 - Fav -13.72
Win: 6.86
New Bank: 1104.29

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1036.80
Today's Stake: 25.92
Here 1:20 - Fav -25.92
Wolv 1:30 - Fav -25.92
Loss: -51.84
New Bank: 984.96

GOJ
Bank: 1104.29
Today's Stake: 27.61
Here 4:20 - Fav -27.61
Wolv 5:00 - Fav -27.61
Loss: -55.22
New Bank: 1049.07

[Healio]

Stats so far:
7 days (23 races)
OTF - 9 wins 1 NR (41% SR 9/22) -15.04
GOJ - 9 wins 1 NR (41% SR 9/22) +49.07

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 984.96
Today's Stake: 8.21
Chel 1:00 - Fav +8.21
Ling 12:35 - Fav +20.53
Nav 1:25 - Fav -8.21
Sou 12:45 - Fav -8.21
Utt 1:25 - Fav -8.21
Wolv 3:50 - Fav -8.21
Loss: -4.11
New Bank: 980.85

GOJ
Bank: 1049.07
Today's Stake: 8.74
Chel 4:30 - Fav -8.74
Ling 4:05 - Fav -8.74
Nav 4:25 - Fav -8.74
Sou 4:10 - Fav +12.02
Utt 4:15 - Fav -8.74
Wolv 6:20 - Fav -8.74
Loss: -31.68
New Bank: 1017.39

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 980.85
Today's Stake: 12.26
Kel 1:05 - Fav +4.90
Kem 1:15 - Fav -12.26
Leop 1:20 - Fav -12.26
Wolv 1:25 - Fav -12.26
Loss: -31.88
New Bank: 948.97

GOJ
Bank: 1017.39
Today's Stake: 12.72
Kel 4:15 - Fav -12.72
Kemp 4:55 - Fav -12.72
Leop 4:25 - Fav -12.72
Wolv 5:05 - Fav -12.72
Loss: -50.88
New Bank: 966.51

Currently suffering a terrible bout of seconditis, which has made a bad last few days:
OTF - 3 wins from last 12 (5 2nd's)
GOJ - 1 wins from last 12 (2 2nd's)

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 948.97
Today's Stake: 15.82
Lud 1:30 - Fav -15.82
Ling 1:20 - Fav +29.66
Wolv 1:40 - Fav -15.82
Loss: -1.98
New Bank: 947.00

GOJ
Bank: 966.51
Today's Stake: 16.11
Lud 4:30 - Fav +28.19
Ling 4:20 - Fav +16.11
Wolv 4:40 - Fav -16.11
Win: +28.19
New Bank: 994.70

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 947.00
Today's Stake: 15.78
Folk 1:50 - Fav +7.89
Sou 1:30 - Fav -15.78
Taun 1:40 - Fav -15.78
Loss: -23.67
New Bank: 923.33

GOJ
Bank: 994.70
Today's Stake: 16.11
Folk 4:20 - Fav -16.11
Sou 4:30 - Fav +44.77
Taun 4:40 - Fav -16.11
Win: +11.61
New Bank: 1006.30

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 923.33
Today's Stake: 15.39
Lin 1:00 - Fav +46.17
Newc 1:20 - Fav +16.93
Leic 1:40 - Fav -15.39
Win: +47.71
New Bank: 971.03

GOJ
Bank: 1006.30
Today's Stake: 16.77
Lin 4:30 - Fav +41.93
Newc 3:50 - Fav -16.77
Leic 4:10 - Fav +46.12
Win: +71.27
New Bank: 1077.58

[Healio]

January Stats (108 races):

OTF - 43 wins 7 NR (43% SR 43/101) +36.57
GOJ - 40 wins 7 NR (40% SR 40/101) +154.38

A couple of days in a row with no winners didnt help either system.

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 971.03
Today's Stake: 12.14
Sou 1:20 - Fav -12.14
Towc 1:30 - Fav -12.14
Thur 1:45 - Fav +27.31
Winc 1:40 - Fav +4.86
Win: +7.85
New Bank: 978.88

GOJ
Bank: 1077.58
Today's Stake: 13.47
Sou 4:20 - Fav -13.47
Towc 4:30 - Fav -13.47
Thur 4:45 - Fav -13.47
Winc 4:40 - Fav +23.57
Loss: -16.84
New Bank: 1060.74

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 978.88
Today's Stake: 16.31
Chep 1:30 - Fav -16.31
Catt 1:20 - Fav -16.31
Wolv 1:40 - Fav +32.62
Win/Loss: 0.00
New Bank: 978.88

GOJ
Bank: 1060.74
Today's Stake: 17.68
Chep 4:45 - Fav -17.68
Catt 4:35 - Fav +14.14
Wolv 5:25 - Fav +28.73
Win: +25.19
New Bank: 1085.93

[Healio]

14 Day Stats (49 races)

OTF - 19 wins 1 NR (40% SR 19/48) -21.12
GOJ - 18 wins 1 NR (38% SR 18/48) +85.93

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 978.88
Today's Stake: 9.79
Fair 1:20 - Fav +12.24
Ling 1:10 - Fav -9.79
Strat 1:25 - Fav -9.79
Sand 1:00 - Fav +8.16
Weth 1:20 - Fav -9.79
Loss: -8.97
New Bank: 969.91

GOJ
Bank: 1085.93
Today's Stake: 10.86
Fair 4:40 - Fav +16.29
Ling 4:30 - Fav -10.86
Strat 4:45 - Fav -10.86
Sand 4:25 - Fav +48.87
Weth 4:35 - Fav -10.86
Win: +32.58
New Bank: 1118.51

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 969.91
Today's Stake: 9.70
Fon 1:40 - Fav -9.70
Kem 1:20 - Fav -9.70
Lim 1:55 - Fav -9.70
Muss 1:30 - Fav -9.70
Punch 1:05 - Fav -9.70
Loss: -48.50
New Bank: 921.41

GOJ
Bank: 1118.51
Today's Stake: 11.19
Fon 4:40 - Fav +30.77
Kem 4:20 - Fav +13.99
Lim 4:55 - Fav +15.39
Muss 4:30 - Fav -11.19
Punch 4:45 - Fav +16.79
Win: 65.75
New Bank: 1184.26

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 921.41
Today's Stake: 15.36
Hex 1:30 - Fav +23.04
Ling 1:40 - Fav +42.24
Wolv 1:50 - Fav -15.36
Win: +49.92
New Bank: 971.33

GOJ
Bank: 1184.26
Today's Stake: 19.74
Hex 4:30 - Fav -19.74
Ling 4:40 - Fav -19.74
Wolv 4:50 - Fav +37.01
Loss: -2.47
New Bank: 1181.79

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 971.33
Today's Stake: 16.19
Mk'Ra 1:50 - Fav 0.00
Sou 1:40 - Fav -16.19
Sedg 1:30 - Fav 0.00
Loss: -16.19
New Bank: 955.14

GOJ
Bank: 1181.79
Today's Stake: 19.70
Mk'Ra 4:20 - Fav 0.00
Sou 4:40 - Fav +39.40
Sedg 4:30 - Fav 0.00
Win: +39.40
New Bank: 1221.19

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 955.14
Today's Stake: 23.88
Ling 12:50 - Fav -23.88
Down 1:25 - Fav +95.52
Win: +71.64
New Bank: 1026.78

GOJ
Bank: 1221.19
Today's Stake: 30.53
Ling 4:35 - Fav -30.53
Down 4:40 - Fav -30.53
Loss: -61.06
New Bank: 1160.13

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1026.78
Today's Stake: 25.67
Sou 1:30 - Fav -25.67
Taun 1:50 - Fav +7.70
Loss: -17.97
New Bank: 1008.81

GOJ
Bank: 1160.13
Today's Stake: 29.00
Sou 4:30 - Fav +43.50
Taun 4:50 - Fav -29.00
Win: 14.50
New Bank: 1174.63

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 1008.81
Today's Stake: 25.22
Kem 1:30 - Fav +34.68
Wolv 1:40 - Fav -25.22
Win: +9.46
New Bank: 1018.27

GOJ
Bank: 1174.63
Today's Stake: 29.37
Kem 4:45 - Fav +40.38
Wolv 4:55 - Fav 0.00
Win: +40.38
New Bank: 1215.01

[Healio]

21 Day Stats (71 races)

OTF - 26 wins 3 NR (38% SR 26/68) +18.27
GOJ - 31 wins 4 NR (46% SR 31/67) +215.01

[Healio]

Starting tomorrow (10/02/07), the stake on the selections will be 3% of the bank per Selection.

OTF
Bank: 1018.27
Today's Stake (3% Bank): 30.55 per selection
Lin 1:30 - Fav -30.55
Leop 1:20 - Fav -30.55
Newb 1:35 - Fav +10.18
War 1:50 - Fav 0.00
Wolv 7:00 - Fav -30.55
Loss: -81.47
New Bank: 936.80

GOJ
Bank: 1215.01
Today's Stake (3% Bank): 36.45 per selection
Lin 4:45 - Fav +40.10
Leop 4:30 - Fav +36.45
Newb 4:50 - Fav +34.17
War 4:35 - Fav 0.00
Wolv 9:30 - Fav -36.45
Win: 74.27
New Bank: 1289.28

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 936.80
Today's Stake: 28.10
Naas 1:55 - Fav -28.10
Sou 1:40 - Fav +8.03
Loss: -20.07
New Bank: 916.73

GOJ
Bank: 1289.28
Today's Stake: 38.68
Naas 4:55 - Fav -38.68
Sou 4:40 - Fav -38.68
Loss: -77.36
New Bank: 1211.92

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 916.73
Today's Stake: 27.50
Plu 1:40 - Fav -27.50
Wolv 1:50 - Fav -27.50
Loss: -55.00
New Bank: 861.73

GOJ
Bank: 1211.92
Today's Stake: 36.36
Plu 4:55 - Fav +54.54
Wolv 5:35 - Fav -36.36
Win: +18.18
New Bank: 1230.10

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 861.73
Today's Stake: 25.85
Folk 1:40 - Fav -25.85
Sou 1:50 - Fav -25.85
Loss: -51.70
New Bank: 810.03

GOJ
Bank: 1230.10
Today's Stake: 36.90
Folk 4:40 - Fav -36.90
Sou 4:50 - Fav -36.90
Loss: -73.80
New Bank: 1156.30

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 810.03
Today's Stake: 24.30
Fairy 1:55 - Fav +42.53
Ling 1:50 - Fav -24.30
Leic 2:10 - Fav -24.30
Muss 2:00 - Fav -24.30
Loss: -30.38
New Bank: 779.65


GOJ
Bank: 1156.30
Today's Stake: 34.69
Fairy 4:55 - Fav -34.69
Ling 4:50 - Fav +156.11
Leic 4:40 - Fav -34.69
Muss 5:00 - Fav -34.69
Win: +52:04
New Bank: 1208.34

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 779.65
Today's Stake: 23.39
Chep 1:40 - Fav +17.01
Sou 12:50 - Fav -23.39
Kelso 1:30 - Fav -23.39
Thur 1:35 - Fav -23.39
Loss: -53.16
New Bank: 726.49

GOJ
Bank: 1208.34
Today's Stake: 36.25
Chep 5:00 - Fav -36.25
Sou 4:35 - Fav -36.25
Kelso 4:45 - Fav +20.71
Thur 5:05 - Fav -36.25
Loss: -88.04
New Bank: 1120.30

[Healio]

OTF
Bank: 726.49
Today's Stake: 21.79
Fake 1:30 - Fav
Sand 1:50 - Fav
Wolv 1:40 - Fav

GOJ
Bank: 1120.30
Today's Stake: 33.61
Fake 4:55 - Fav
Sand 4:45 - Fav
Wolv 5:35 - Fav
____________________________________________________________

Day 29 - 17/02/07

OTF
Bank: 742.34
Today's Stake: 22.27
Asc 1:10 - Fav
Gow 2:15 - Fav
Hay 1:25 - Fav
Ling 1:35 - Fav
Utt 1:40 - Fav
Winc 1:20 - Fav

GOJ
Bank: 1093.41
Today's Stake: 32.80
Asc 4:45 - Fav
Gow 5:15 - Fav
Hay 4:55 - Fav
Ling 5:00 - Fav
Utt 5:05 - Fav
Winc 4:35 - Fav
____________________________________________________________

Day 30 - 18/02/07

OTF
Bank: 784.10
Today's Stake: 23.52
Font 1:00 - Fav
Nav 2:10 - Fav
Towc 2:20 - Fav

GOJ
Bank: 1003.21
Today's Stake: 30.10
Font 5:00 - Fav
Nav 5:10 - Fav
Towc 4:50 - Fav


Going away for the weekend so posting the next few days!

[Healio]

Ending this thread, learned a few lessons alright. You can't win backing Favs being the main one.

[wb]

Ending this thread, learned a few lessons alright. You can't win backing Favs being the main one.

Do you not think the GOJ bank has some potential with a few filters thrown in to eliminate the likely losers?

[Healio]

Do you not think the GOJ bank has some potential with a few filters thrown in to eliminate the likely losers?

It is just the end of this particular thread, but a new one will be devised.
I think the problem i have is the staking plan, i just can't seem to get it right.

Have you any idea for filters yourself??

One Filter i had considered was splitting the Irish and UK racing.
I'm not too sure on figures, but i think the irish racing selections were more profitable.

[wb]

Have you any idea for filters yourself??

One Filter i had considered was splitting the Irish and UK racing.
I'm not too sure on figures, but i think the irish racing selections were more profitable.

Well, what I do is record the variables that may affect the bet. Definitely seperate the UK and Irish. I record things such as:

Track
Going
Distance
Type of race (chase/hurdle/aw/flat)
Grade of race

etc. etc.

After a few hundred bets, I look back over the spreadsheet and see if I can spot any trends. For example, you will notice that in my 'wb vs the handicapper' thread, there will never be any bets at Wolves. It simply did not pay - why I don't know. Similarly, there will be no bets on cl6 handicaps - again, I spotted that NO cl6 race made me money, so that was another filter added. You will have to start recording everything about each bet if you are to spot any trends over time. Losing trends can become filters, and be left out.