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Merlin
26th June 2007, 03:25
The 2007 Copa América is a most welcome event for those footy fans whose domestic leagues are done and dusted – particularly most Western European bettors, who have replenished their betting accounts with a few shillings to punt the big dance in the Americas.

Most of the money will be on the Brazilians and Argentines , and quite rightly so, but no doubt during the course of the competition there will be one or two others who may threaten the big two. My own fancy for an outside bet, are the Peruvians – but I must emphasize the OUTSIDE BET part of the sentence…

Today’s game:
Tuesday 26 June 2007
18.00 (Local Time)
23:05 (British Standard Time)

TEAMS: Peru v Uruguay
VENUE: Estadio Metropolitano de Merida, Merida, Venezuela.

Peru

To many minds, the most famous entity from Peru is Paddington Bear , this was confirmed this morning when I asked my youngest to name the first thing that springs to mind when thinking of Peru…Without hesitation , the anthropomorpised cuddly, marmalade loving thing was spat out quicker than you could say Machu Pichu.

Lest not forget though, Peru háve won the American Cup twice , the last time in 75, beating Colombia in the final, and oddly have never been runners-up in the tournaments 91 year history.

Peru are no different to many Latin American clubs in respect of players falling in-and-out of favour on account of a personality clash or temper loss, sometimes culminating in reminding the coach, that his parents are not married.

Former player, Julio Cesar Uribe aka ¨Black Diamond¨ is the current coach, has a devil of a temper and has sent former captain Nolberto Solano to Coventry, on account of his criticism . But Chelski player, Claudio Pizarro hás been brought in from the cold, and providing their histrionics are kept to a bare minimum, they have an outside chance of not only winning this game, but getting out of the group too.

Here is the Peruvian squad:

Goalkeepers: Leao Butron, Juan Flores and George Forsyth.

Defenders: Santiago Acasiete, Alberto Rodriguez, Walter Vilchez, Miguel Villalta, Edgar Villamarin, Jhoel Herrera and John Galliquio.

Midfielders: Juan Vargas, Juan Bazalar, Paolo De la Haza. Juan Marino, Pedro Garcoa and Damian Ismodes.

Forwards: Jefferson Farfan, Paolo Guerrero, Claudio Pizarro, Andres Mendoza , Roberto Jimenez and Israel Zuniga.

Uruguay
The Uruguayans’ are traditionally one of the giants of this competition, equaling Argentina, with fourteen wins . And current coach, Oscar Washington Tabarez, has revitalized and stabilized a national team that went through 4 coaches in 5 years.

Indeed, Tabarez led the Uruguayans’ to the Libertadores Cup in 1987, and in between has had stints at AC Milan and Cagliari in Italy, Colombia's Deportivo Cali, Oviedo in Spain in addition to two spells at Boca Juniors.

The teams current anchor and hardman, is Diego Lugano, the Fenerbahçe (Istanbul) player is a monster in the centre of defence, and his avidly supported by crutch and wheelchair manufacturers the world over.

Indeed, he attained cult status in Brazil when playing for Sao Paulo and remains the topic of conversation in many Paulista bars.

Here is the Urugyuan squad (provisional)

Goalkeepers:
Fabian Carini (Inter Milan (It)), Juan Castillo (Peñarol), Fernando Muslera (Nacional).

Defenders:
Carlos Diogo (Zaragoza (Sp)), Diego Godín (Nacional), Jorge Fucile (Porto (Por)), Diego Lugano (Fenerbahce (Tur)), Darío Rodriguez (Schalke (Ger)), Andrés Scotti (Argentinos Juniors (Arg)), Carlos Valdez (Treviso (It)), Mauricio Victorino (Veracruz (Mex)).

Midfielders:
Pablo Garcia, Fabian Canobbio (Celta Vigo (Sp)), Diego Perez (Monaco (Fr)), Cristian Rodriguez (Paris St-Germain (Fr)), Egidio Arevalo Ríos (Peñarol), Walter Gargano, Ignacio González (Danubio), Alvaro González, Maximiliano Pereira (Defensor Sporting), Alvaro Recoba (Inter Milan (It)).

Forwards:
Carlos Bueno (Sporting Lisbon (Por)), Diego Forlán (Villarreal (Sp)), Fabian Estoyanoff (Deportivo la Coruna (Sp)), Sebastián Abreu (Tigers (Mex)), Vicente Sanchez (Toluca (Mex)), Gonzalo Vargas (Monaco (Fr)).

ANALYSIS
In the days of Noah, Uruguay would have murdered Peru.But as on most continents , the also–rans eventually close the gap, and its not so much that the movers and shakers regress but more that the others improve, possibly helped in no small way by the ease of player movement between continents.

Mind you, Peru are still up against it here – big time – and it would take a brave man or a prima facie idiot to predict a Peruvian win.

Lets take a look at the stats:

These protagonists have met only 4 times, PERU have won twice, the Uruguayans’ once, and a stalemate. This stat considerably favours Peru, particularly at the odds available.

However, and theres always the proverbial however, the last 10 match stats come down massively in favor of URUGUAY:

Last 10 games Peru:
WON 2
DRAWN 3
LOST 5

Last 10 games Uruguay:
WON 7
DRAWN 1
LOST 2

To help with prediction we could always delve further into the stats, however, I don’t honestly think it would be worthwhile.

I feel it would be better to witness the current form of both teams and hang fire until they have played a game or two in this tournament.

Bearing this in mind I am going to attempt a cover bet – here is the bet.

BET

URUGUAY TO WIN @ 1.80 with BET 365 (This is the primary bet)@ 6 POINTS

Correct Score: PERU TO WIN 1-0 @ 10.00 with BET 365 (cover bet)@ 1 POINT

Good luck if you play.

MattR
26th June 2007, 10:10
Great write up Merlin. I always look forward to watching the Copa America.

Argentina seem to be taking it very seriously from the squad they have.

sparkyminer
26th June 2007, 10:15
Is it on the box anywhere Matt?

MattR
26th June 2007, 10:24
Yeah Sky Sports are covering the whole tournament :)

yerotsluap
26th June 2007, 12:08
really good write up Merlin

good luck with it

Merlin
27th June 2007, 11:44
PANTS pick with Uruguay.......but well done to Peru....

As mentioned in my preview .....

Most of the money will be on the Brazilians and Argentines , and quite rightly so, but no doubt during the course of the competition there will be one or two others who may threaten the big two. My own fancy for an outside bet, are the Peruvians – but I must emphasize the OUTSIDE BET part of the sentence…

And I am on at 81.00 eachway , they ought to get out of the group stage now...

All in all , Day 1 was def a bookies day…