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Merlin
30th June 2007, 16:29
DATE: 1st July 2007
TIME 18.20 Local Time:
TEAMS: Brazil v Chile
VENUE: Estadio Monumental de Maturín, Maturín Venezuela.
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Brazil
......

Its hardly worth writing a preview for this game, as every Tom, Dick and Harry knows that Brazil have to win . Every man and his dog knows that the Tequila Slammers beat them 0-2 the other day.

Indignity, mental pain and mortification was the order of the day, confirmed and rammed home by sections of the Brazilian press.

But lets not go to overboard on the negatives as the stats indicated that a Mexican win was entirely possible , and whereas in the past, the samba crew have been most adept at scoring themselves out of trouble – it just didn’t happen.

The Mexican goalkeeper is almost a national hero, he played his part, while Robinho and co , – particularly and almost exclusively in the second-half, were pulling their hair-out.

As I write, Dunga hasn’t actually said what he is going to do about this (at least not directly) goal famine. One thing is certain though, due to an injury, Fred is out of the tournament.

My own feeling is that he will give Afonso a certain start (substitute last game), and he has Anderson, Baptista and Daniel Alves to consider Notwithstanding, he will almost surely be considering leaving Elano or Vagner Love on the bench, and my feeling is it will be Elano who sits-it-out.

I must add there is also speculation that there maybe a goalkeeping change too, possibly on account of someone super-gluing the underside of Doni`s boots in the last game.

Samba hopefuls:

[12] DONI
[2] MAICON
[3] ALEX COSTA
[4] JUAN
[5] MINEIRO
[6] GILBERTO
[7] ELANO
[8] GILBERTO SILVA
[9] VÁGNER LOVE
[10] DIEGO
[11] ROBINHO
[13] OCHOA Guillermo
[5] CASTRO Israel
[2] MAGALLÓN Jonny
[4] MÁRQUEZ Rafael
[3] PINTO Fausto
[20] ARCE Fernando
[8] CORREA Jaime
[6] TORRADO Gerardo
[11] MORALES Ramón
[12] CACHO Juan Carlos
[21] CASTILLO Nery
[1] HELTON
[13] DANIEL ALVES
[14] ALEX SILVA
[15] NALDO
[16] KLÉBER
[17] JOSUÉ
[18] FERNANDO
[19] JÚLIO BAPTÍSTA
[20] ANDERSON
[21] AFONSO
[22] FRED (IS INJURED)

Chile
......

Chile are one of the 3 South American countries that haven’t won this competition, but they started quite well here, by defeating Ecuador 2-3 in their opener.

The Chile peppers, aka, the comeback kids, were staring right into the eyes of defeat against the Ecuadorians , but not only equalized but scored the winner 3 minutes from the final curtain.

Personally, I felt Ecuador were unlucky to lose, but were quite rightly punished for taking their foot off the pedal when the Red Ones were looking quite tired.

La Roja (The Red One) probables:

Claudio Bravo, Alvaro Ormeno, Jorge Vargas, Pablo Contreras, Mark Gonzalez, Matias Fernandez Miguel Riffo, Rodrigo Melendez Carlos Villanueva, Arturo Sanhueza, Jorge Valdivia, Humberto Suazo, Reinaldo Navia Juan Lorca.

Analysis
.........

To get the formalities out of the way, let’s take a look at the head-to-head, stats.

All games played = 69

Brazil wins = 41
Chile wins = 6
Draws = 12

Outside of either territory, its 14 games, 10 Brazilian wins, 3 Chile wins, and a stalemate.

I wont insult your intelligence and state the obvious, but on stats alone its clear who the favourites are.

As we know stats are always only part of the picture, so lets ask some questions and attempt to answer the unknowable.

Who do the stats point to = Brazil

Who is probably most motivated to win this game = Brazil

Who needs to win this game the most = Brazil

Who has the best recent scoring record = Chile

Who has the best competition record = Brazil

Who makes the best red wine = Chile

Who has a capital city named Santiago = Chile

Its clear that, according to my analysis, the Brazilians just shade it 4-3 Go, Go Go Brazil…

Prediction
............

Chile, Chile, Chile peppers,
Goals and goals and goals will let us
Its a win for boys from Rio
Courage, tenacity of lion, Leo.

Defeat is for a nightmare sweat
Coz, we don’t want to lose the bet
Brazil the boys in yellow and green
Will return to what we have once seen.

Two or three is looking good
Robinho wont be hitting wood
Alfonso to may bag a goal
Happiness in heart and soul.

Over and out is message clear
A bet on Chile will cost you dear
With bookies mean and prices low
Prepare yourself for the samba show.

Bet
...

Take Brazil to win @ 1.40 with Victor Chandler

Take half-time full-time Brazil – Brazil @ 2.04 with Centrebet.

Will decide on the Points strength of my bet later...