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Merlin
4th July 2007, 01:54
DATE: 3rd July 2007
TIME 20.50 Local Time:
TEAMS: Brazil v Ecuador
VENUE: Estadio Olímpico Luis Ramos, Puerto la Cruz Venezuela.
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Brazil
..........

The Samba show is on the road.

After the shock Mexican drubbing, the worlds greatest, sliced through the Chile peppers with 3 red-hot strikes, the 3rd of which was exquisitely taken and simultaneously catapulted Robinho to idol status in Venezuela.

Robinhomania has now engrossed a nation and his name flows as sure from Venezuelan lips as the Orinoco flows from the mountains on the Venezuelan-Brazilian border.

This cult status is good for the Brazilians as a team, ensuring good vocal support, providing of course, the host nation is not in opposition.

I can tell you the Brazilians are supremely confident of beating Ecuador, and so they should be, and coach Dunga is already looking ahead to the quarter-final with one-eye on the yellow card scenario. There are currently 7 samba boys on yellow, and another picked up here would eliminate them from the next game.

Here are the players on a warning; ALEX COSTA, AFONSO, DANIEL ALVES, GILBERTO, MINEIRO, ROBINHO, ELANO. Goes without saying, at least 2 or 3 of the cautioned would be missed greatly in the quarters were they to collect another yellow.

Naturally, if they don’t dispose of Ecuador the aforementioned maybe a simple academic exercise. However, if the samba are winning and controlling the game, to preserve the situation, it is entirely possible he will make tactical changes.

Dunga keeps his yellow and greens to his chest right until the last moment, but here is my guess:

[12] DONI
[13] DANIEL ALVES
[4] JUAN
[3] ALEX COSTA
[6] GILBERTO
[8] GILBERTO SILVA
[5] MINEIRO
[7] ELANO
[20] ANDERSON
[11] ROBINHO
[9] VÁGNER LOVE


Ecuador
.........

It’s not over until the fat lady sings, and theoretically if Ecuador win, albeit hugely unlikely, they could still qualify.

They currently sit at group bottom – point-less, and it is a huge task to expect them to beat a Brazilian side on an upward curve.

They have a best placed 4th in the tournament, that was in 93, when they hosted the event.

Like most other South American teams, the Ecuadorians will be under no illusions regarding the mountain they have to climb – as they always do when facing Brazil or Argentina.

Ecuadorian possibles:
[12] MORA Cristhian Rafael
[4] DE LA CRUZ Ulises Hernán
[3] HURTADO Iván Jacinto
[17] ESPINOZA Giovanny Patricio
[15] BAGUÍ Óscar Dalmiro )
[14] CASTILLO Segundo Alejandro
[20] TENORIO Edwin Rolando
[8] MÉNDEZ Edison Vicente
[16] VALENCIA Luis Antonio
[11] BENÍTEZ Christian Rogelio
[21] TENORIO Carlos Vicente


Analysis
..........

There really is not much to say about the head-to-head, on account of little data.

There are 4 head-to-heads, and its 3-1 to the samba. Perhaps the most helpful scenario is to take a look at the last dozen games:

Last 12 games Brazil
Lost 2

Last 12 games Ecuador
Lost 8

In fairness to Ecuador, over the past 7 or 8 years they have made giant strides in footballing terms, confirmed by 2 recent World Cup qualifications. But oddly, this has not been reflected on the domestic South American stage. For instance, in 2001, they lost all three matches in this Cup, and again in 2004, where results included a 6-1 pulverizing by Argentina.

Let’s face it, in the wildest of wildest dreams an Ecuadorian victory is unimaginable.

Prediction
............

Ecuadorians dry your eyes
The samba boys are on the rise
It’s not your Cup and not your day
Watching samba making hay.

An over’s game is on the card
Robinhos crew work so hard
To put the ball into the net
And help us claim a winning bet.

Bet
....

Take Brazil @ 1.33 with Centrebet

Take Brazil-Brazil (half-time-full-time) @ 1.87 with Centrebet.