NFL - value bets

[presto]

looking forward to this NFL season, and the value bets which looked promising last season, however wern't given a run as i started too late into the season.

the first few weeks will be in sort of 'test' mode to establish a simple rating's system, untill then i will just pick the 'value' bet.

[presto]

new orleans @ indianapolis 1.44

[presto]

atlanta @ minnesota 1.66
carolina @ st louis 1.90
denver @ buffalo 1.61
kansas city @ houston 2.60
miami @ washington 2.52
new england @ ny jets 3.50
philadelphia @ green bay 2.56
pittsburgh @ cleaveland 1.49
tennessee @ jacksonville 1.36
chicago @ san diego 3.6
detroit @ oakland 1.76
tampa bay @ seattle 3.25

[presto]

ny giants @ dallas 3.35 3.35
baltimore @ cincinnati 2.30
arizona @ san fransisco 1.62

[vegyjones]

At ht

San Diego 0-3 Chicago

A game where both defences look absolutely solid!
To be honest, I couldn't believe it when I saw our price on Betfair :ooo

They missed an early FG opportunity... well, we blocked it to be precice :D
And then they intercepted a Grossman pass on their own 1 yard line :splapme

Still too close to call though! Nail biter!!!!

[presto]

been watching it on sky (11 hours of NFL today :yikes::D),
your not going to like how the bears gave away the first SD touchdown :headbange

SD punt the ball, and some :icon_tong on the bears has his back turned, not looking at the ball, - it bounces hits the bear on the back of his shoulder and SD gain possesion on the 30, then a defensive 'jump' gives SD another 5 yards :splapme - throw and TD

[vegyjones]

And if I was left in a room for five minutes with Rex Grossman, he wouldn't be able to play quarterback for the rest of his life ;fire

[presto]

can't beleive how crap baltimore were against cincinnati tonight. :headbange

gifted 24 of the 27 points with turnovers (fumbles) - first 3 possessions were all turnovers.

then had a chance at the end to tie the game, - first down on the 5 and goal (last season cincinnati failed to defend all 18 from the same spot), got what looked a legitamate TD (commentators agreed) but a dodgy decision gave interferance, next play another dodgy decision gave interferance so a fresh first down with another 4 attempts to get the ball 5 yards.
guess what - another interception :headbange:splapme

[vegyjones]

I only watched the first half... I thought they did well to only go in 2 points down at HT!

[yerotsluap]

can't beleive how crap baltimore were against cincinnati tonight. :headbange

gifted 24 of the 27 points with turnovers (fumbles) - first 3 possessions were all turnovers.

then had a chance at the end to tie the game, - first down on the 5 and goal (last season cincinnati failed to defend all 18 from the same spot), got what looked a legitamate TD (commentators agreed) but a dodgy decision gave interferance, next play another dodgy decision gave interferance so a fresh first down with another 4 attempts to get the ball 5 yards.
guess what - another interception :headbange:splapme

I think that Baltimore could end up having a poor season. Great defence but not much of an offence and an ageing QB

[glynners]

And if I was left in a room for five minutes with Rex Grossman, he wouldn't be able to play quarterback for the rest of his life ;fire

I watched that game and to be fair to Rex, the interception was entirly the receivers fault, he just turned his back on the play and gave up. He did have a poor game though, all this after his 'I'll show the world the real Rex Grossman' quote.

My team got absolutely battered by the Colts on thursday night though, it wernt pretty to watch in the 2nd half. I thought we'd sorted the defence out a little in the off season too :doh

[vegyjones]

I backed New Orleans to cause an upset - All the pre season games pointed to a NO victory!

[glynners]

I was quietly confident too, espesically after the 1st half with the turnover td but they came out like a house on fire in the 3rd quarter.

I was hoping for a good season but my confidence in the saints took a little beating on thursday.

Suppose the pluses I can take are that the hardest game is now out the way and our offense can only play better from now on.....I hope :thumbs

[presto]

WEEK 2

atlanta @ jacksonville 1.21
buffalo @ pittsburgh 1.21
cincinnati @ cleaveland 1.33
green bay @ ny giants 2.36
houston @ carolina 3.55
indianapolis @ tennessee 1.34
new orleans @ tampa bay 3.05
san fransisco @ st louis 1.68
dallas @ miami 2.68
minnesota @ detroit 1.66
seattle @ arizona 2.34
kansas city @ chicago 7.60
NY jets @ baltimore 5.3 5.30
oakland @ denver 5.5 5.50
san diego @ new england 2.82
washington @ philadelphia 3.70

[vegyjones]

Devin Hester's at it again! :D

A 73 yard punt return. He was played out of the game by San Diego last week
ie short but high kicks giving their punt rushers enough time to crowd him when he got the ball.

Kansas obviously didn't think they'd bother :laugh

[presto]

still not keen on rex grossman as QB though,

[presto]

Devin Hester's at it again! :D

A 73 yard punt return. He was played out of the game by San Diego last week
ie short but high kicks giving their punt rushers enough time to crowd him when he got the ball.

Kansas obviously didn't think they'd bother :laugh

and again :yikes:

[presto]

and again :yikes:

boooo - flag for holding (would have been 95 yards)

[vegyjones]

If I was Hester - I'd be well :pss

[vegyjones]

FFS... Lovie Smith must be sleeping with Grossman!

I wouldn't mind so much if we had a couple of incompetents in reserve but we don't ;fire ;fire

[yerotsluap]

Yeah vegy but throughout their careers thus far they haven't proven themselves to be any better than Grossman

[presto]

arizona @ baltimore 1.29
buffalo @ new england 13.50
detroit @ philadelphia 3.20
indianapolis @ houston 3.60
miami @ ny jets 2.52
minnesota @ cansas city 2.46
san diego @ green bay 3.30
san fransisco @ pittsburgh 1.24
st louis @ tampa bay 2.90
cincinnati @ seattle 2.54
cleaveland @ oakland 2.48
jacksonville @ denver 2.74
ny giants @ washington 2.80
carolina @ atlanta 3.00
dallas @ chicago 2.46
tennessee @ new orleans 2.86

[vegyjones]

Are dallas really odds against to beat us. I might have to have a rather large wager on that! I fancied Dallas HT/FT too!

[presto]

i thaught it was a pretty much 50/50 game, so the odd's look good to me.

dallas, miami and tennessee would be my personal value picks. tennessee especially as they looked strong last week against the colts and the saints have looked awfull in there first 2 games so getting odd's around the 2/1 mark looks a gift.

[presto]

FFS... Lovie Smith must be sleeping with Grossman!

I wouldn't mind so much if we had a couple of incompetents in reserve but we don't ;fire ;fire

apparently if grossman has a bad game tonight he's dropping to the bench.

and baltimore :headbange:headbange:headbange winning 23-6 (1.01 on betfair) and concede 17 in the 4th

[presto]

Are dallas really odds against to beat us. I might have to have a rather large wager on that! I fancied Dallas HT/FT too!

hope you did vegy, as it might soften the blow a bit.
chicago were awfull, so was grossman - with a very poor performance. chants of 'greasy' rang around the stadium - i thaught it was an obscure remark about grossmans hand's untill the commentator explained he was the back up QB :laugh
- romo was awsome.

was really pissed off that i didn't manage to get on the HT/FT - was going to have a dabble on draw / dallas when you mentioned the ht/ft - thaught i would get around 7/1 (never really looked at that market before) but i looked and it was 18/1 :yikes: - but it had just started and was suspended :mad:

[vegyjones]

I went large on Dallas HT/FT in the end, so ended up losing on both counts :(

[glynners]

My god the Saints are rubbish this year, the defence got walked over while Brees and the offence where nothing short of terrible last night.

Something needs to click soon or they could be in for one hell of an embarrassing season

[presto]

i missed the 4th quarter last night, but the titans were pretty good - especially vincy young the QB in the 1st. the saints were awfull - didn't get a 1st down in the 1st quarter :yikes: and only managed something like 13 yards :laugh - could have been 21-0 in the 1st. supprised they threw the ball as they have been running in the first 2 games.

despite being my bet of the week - i managed to lose on the game :laugh:ermmm due to the win bet being bigger than the value bet - despite being IMO bet of the week. so will start a method thread aswell.

[presto]

stats:

starting bank £1,000
profit £11.08
current bank £1,011
adverage stake £11
adverage odd's 2.84
selections 48
wins 22
losses 26
liability £539.01
SR 45.83%
POI 2.06%
% increase 1.11%

a good recovery after a poor week one when a few big bets went down.

[presto]

WEEK 4


baltimore @ cleaveland 3.00
chicago @ detroit 2.26
green bay @ minnesota 1.86
houston @ atlanta 2.24
ny jets @ buffalo 2.68
oakland @ miami 2.92
st louis @ dallas 7.80
pittsburgh @ arizona 1.42
seattle @ san fransisco 2.14
tampa bay @ carolina 1.72
denver @ indianapolis 6.00
kansas city @ san diego 1.16
philadelphia @ ny giants 1.78
new england @ cincinnati 4.40

[presto]

what the hell happened in the 4thQ there vegy - 48 points and it isn't even over yet :yikes:
detroit scoring 34

[presto]

arizona @ st louis 2.88
atlanta @ tennessee 4.30
carolina @ new orleans 2.78
cleaveland @ new england 1.06
detroit @ washington 2.88
jacksonville @ kansas city 1.78
miami @ houston 3.00
ny jets @ ny giants 1.50
seattle @ pittsburgh 1.41
tampa bay @ indianapolis 5.30
baltimore @ san fransisco 1.56
san diego @ denver 2.02
chicago @ green bay 2.66
dallas @ buffalo 1.20

[vegyjones]

chicago @ green bay 2.66As I said in Yerotsluaps thread... :yikes: :yikes: :yikes:

[presto]

chicago @ 2.66 :thumbs
- i cant beleive they won that game, green bay near enough dominated. green bay could have gone 21-0 up but the bears forced a couple of fumbles deep into scoring terotory. the chicago 1st TD was also dodgy - a wrong formation on a field goal attempt (commentators dissagreed to this), so they got an extra 5 yards for a first down - turning a 3pt FG into 7pt TD. think GB had nearly double the passing / rushing rards of chicago - well it was that way at the end of the 3rd.

got lucky with dallas though. best offence vs worst defence 4-0 vs 1-3 - however buffalo looked the superior team all game (missed the 4th), they started with an ultra cheeky punt fake and run (20 yards - for a 1st down) in midfield :yikes: . Romo had a nightmare - threw twice from his own end zone to be intercepted for TD's. i did miss the 4th Q but how they went on to win i just don't see how.

[presto]

just watched the dallas @ buffalo replay :yikes::yikes::yikes::yikes: - that has to be the greatest ever ending to an american football game. (from somebody backing dallas that is :D ).

- just over 30 seconds to go, no time outs, dallas need a TD and 2pt conversion from the 20 to go level.
- romo throws a TD.
- dallas miss the 2pt conversion, dallas trailing by 2 - GAME OVER.
- or is it?
- dallas kick off, and recover the ball just after it went 10 (replay needed).
- 18 seconds left.
- romo throws and is caught, within FG range, ball quickly spiked with 1 second to go :wiggle:
- pass ruled incomplete after replay :splapme:splapme:splapme
- now only 13 seconds left and back needing a similar play.
- a throw wide caught, and stepped out of bounds to stop the clock on 7.
- still a few yards needed to go within FG range.
- another throw and step out of bounds to eat up a few yards.
- the kicker with a 47 yard best steps up to take a 53 yard effort.
- kickes and makes it :wiggle::wiggle::wiggle:
- but there was a time out - and he has to do it again :yikes:
- makes it :thumbs

[presto]

WEEK 6

cincinnati @ kansas city 2.28
houston @ jacksonville 1.38
miami @ cleaveland 2.86 2.86
minnesota @ chicago 1.47
philadelphia @ ny jets 2.82
st louis @ baltimore 1.24
tennessee @ tampa bay 1.81
washington @ green bay 1.66
carolina @ arizona 3.20
new england @ dallas 3.20
oakland @ san diego 5.50
new orleans @ seattle 3.35
ny giants @ atlanta 2.76

[presto]

WEEK 7

arizona @ washington 4.40
atlanta @ new orleans 4.30
baltimore @ buffalo 2.48
new england @ miami 1.07
san fransisco @ ny giants 5.00
tampa bay @ detroit 2.24
tennessee @ houston 2.10
kansas city @ oakland 1.81
ny jets @ cincinnati 1.38
chicago @ philadelphia 3.35
minnesota @ dallas 5.10
st louis @ seattle 1.28
pittsburgh @ denver 1.53
indianapolis @ jacksonville 2.56

[presto]

you jammy bears - get the 150's on betfair vegy :rolleyes:

what about the tennesee vs houston :yikes: tennesee 1.01 with a massive lead in the 4th - houston come back with 29 point's in the 4th :yikes: go within FG range to win it - houston trading @ 1.03 :yikes: - but then turnover, so a 1.01 and a 1.03 turned over in the same game :rolleyes:

i forgot to advise people to put there mortguage on the line with the pats against the fish, i got on early as i thaught 1.07 was fantastic odd's, but drifted to 1.10 :ooo

[presto]

WEEK 8

cleaveland @ st louis 2.44
detroit @ chicago 1.46
indianapolis @ carolina 59 1.38
ny giants @ miami 5.30
oakland @ tennessee 3.85
philadelphia @ minnesota 2.04
pittsburgh @ cincinnati 2.78
buffalo @ ny jets 1.69
houston @ san diego 5.10
jacksonville @ tampa bay 2.86
new orleans @ san fransisco 2.26
washington @ new england 14.50
green bay @ denver 2.46

[presto]

WEEK 9

arizona @ tampa bay 2.68
carolina @ tennessee 3.20
cincinnati @ buffalo 1.95
denver @ detroit 2.30
green bay @ kansas city 2.24
jacksonville @ new orleans 2.60
san diego @ minnesota 4.00
san fransisco @ atlanta 1.58
washington @ ny jets 2.80
seattle @ cleaveland 2.04
houston @ oakland 1.75
new england @ indianapolis 3.00
dallas @ philadelphia 1.58
baltimore @ pittsburgh 4.70