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View Full Version : PAPERTEST Over/Under 2.5 goals



Mug OUFC
18th September 2007, 10:18
I stopped putting these in my non league bets as they seemed dodgy, but i will track them separately here to see if they really are bad bets or whether i would be profiting from them if i bet them. Also means im not limited to just conference selections.

Level stakes of 1 point on each

Bet 1:
Real Madrid v Werder Bremen OVER @ 1.7 (bet365) *FH

MattR
18th September 2007, 11:12
That looks a decent price actually. I watched the Dortmund v Werder game on friday evening and Werder look very poor this season. There defence was all over the place and I'd think Real Madrid will make the most of that.They do have a few players out but losing Klose to Bayern is naturally going to be a massive loss.

scoobydoo
18th September 2007, 11:21
I agree Matt...Werder looked appalling in that game.....they have quite a few players out dont they? I actually thought Werder would beat Dormund but yet again I remind myself how little I know! :splapme My only concern in the Madrid game is that they would probably have to score the 3 goals as I cant see Werder getting any the way they played the other night....best of luck Mug.

Mug OUFC
18th September 2007, 11:27
Mmm im not sure if werder will get any either...they play offensively but have lost their best goalscorers. Madrid at home are always worth an overs bet anyway, scraping 1-0 results arent acceptable to the fans and they are still vulnerable to silly goals at the back. Plus if they dont look like scoring enough they can always depend on the referee to give them a penalty to help them along :thumbs

Werder looked all over the place at the back against dortmund.

The 1.7 has gone at bet365 but its 1.72 before commission at betfair

Mug OUFC
18th September 2007, 21:55
GOOD

Closer than expected though :ooo

Mug OUFC
19th September 2007, 12:47
3 overs for tonight

Bet 2: Southampton v Colchester 1.73 *H
Bet 3: Barcelona v Lyon 1.92 *FH
Bet 4: Roma v Dinamo Kiev 1.86 *FH

Need 2 in to profit

scoobydoo
19th September 2007, 14:30
GOOD

Closer than expected though :ooo

Well done Mug......the great Ruud saved yer :butthead:! :D
In the Porto game, I wonder what price over 2.5 was in-play when it went to 1-1 after 17 mins....you just never know do you?

Mug OUFC
19th September 2007, 14:54
Great finish, dont get that down oxford united :laugh

I would love to get some research on in running prices. An early goal and the prices on overs drop like a rock...I know statistically an early goal means the chances of it going over must increase...but often that can be the end of the scoring.

MattR
19th September 2007, 15:36
Yes, that would be interesting to know. There was a game at the weekend (can't think who of the top of my head) but there was a first minute goal and it ended 1-0.

Merlin
19th September 2007, 16:32
3 overs for tonight

Bet 2: Southampton v Colchester 1.73 *H
Bet 3: Barcelona v Lyon 1.92 *FH
Bet 4: Roma v Dinamo Kiev 1.86 *FH

Need 2 in to profit

Looks good for at least 2 there...C.........

Merlin
19th September 2007, 21:48
Unlucky, C..close but no cigar….

Mug OUFC
19th September 2007, 21:50
Sky sports interactive update had it as 2-1 colchester :doh

Merlin
19th September 2007, 21:56
Nah...it was 1-1...and the Colchester goal was a friggin own goal...

Mug OUFC
19th September 2007, 22:03
Mmm, I had overs on this papertest and soton with real cash. Pretty much gay all round really :rolleyes:

Mug OUFC
21st September 2007, 12:02
BET ANALYSIS
Won 2
Lost 2
Total 4
Strike Rate 50%
Total Staked 4.00
Profit(loss) -0.38
Yield -10%


BET 5:
Kidderminster v Torquay OVER @ 1.85 (bet365)

Mug OUFC
21st September 2007, 13:25
Bet 6: Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt OVER @ 1.8 (bet365) *H

Mug OUFC
22nd September 2007, 18:03
Bet 5 won by miles
Bet 6 lost by miles

Bet 7: Barcelona v Sevilla OVER 1.83 (various)

Mug OUFC
24th September 2007, 08:46
Back into positive territory :)

BET ANALYSIS
Won 4
Lost 3
Total 7
Strike Rate 57%
Total Staked 7.00
Profit(loss) 0.30
Yield 4%

Mug OUFC
27th September 2007, 18:24
bet 8: real madrid again @ 1.74 before com. betfair

i'm sure that madrid will win, but the prices on the draw and betis look massive to me :yikes: if only i had the money to risk massive longshots like this :ermmm

Mug OUFC
28th September 2007, 13:28
Farking hell right. Yuo know what i said earlier about madrid getting penos at home if they arent winning after an hour.....well last night it got to the hour mark and they werent winning. I turned the laptop on to back a penalty on betfair....by the time the heap of shoyte had cranked itself into action madrid had been gifted the penalty, coverted it and restarted.

DELL ARSEHOLES ;fire;fire;fire

Mug OUFC
28th September 2007, 16:06
BET ANALYSIS
Won 4
Lost 4
Total 8
Strike Rate 50%
Total Staked 8.00
Profit(loss) -0.70
Yield -9%

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :mad:

Mug OUFC
7th October 2007, 09:18
Bet9: Barca v Atletico OVER 1.73

scoobydoo
7th October 2007, 11:35
Watched your team last night Mug....fans were not happy were they? :ermmm Just how bad a result was that last night?? Droylsden were without a win weren't they.......do you reckon Jim will be out on his :butthead: this week then or not?

Mug OUFC
7th October 2007, 22:35
I was amazed he didnt resign the day after the histon embarassment mate. The problem is he is a very proud and stubborn man who wont want to go out of football with humiliation like this...but a bigger problem is the fact that he is a director and therefore employs himself. The chairman has already said Smith has the job for as long as he wants it.

Jim Smith is a genuine legend in these parts...and the fans are split between those who have seen enough and those who cant face the fact that it hasnt worked...but over the last calender year we have been dreadful and droylsden was just too embarassing to bear.

Crowds are down, results are relegation form...if he wasnt jim smith he would have been out in the summer.

Dark days.

On the bright side however, my overs bet won :D

scoobydoo
8th October 2007, 10:11
On the bright side however, my overs bet won :D

:laugh Well done! :thumbs

Merlin
8th October 2007, 12:18
Give the old dog a chance.....he nearly got you promoted last season....:yikes:

Or - you can always sent him to Marston...:yikes:

Mug OUFC
8th October 2007, 14:19
My dog could have got us promoted last season :ermmm

We've barely won a game over the last year, and have got seriously worse, we have never really been a force or played well since smith took charge 18 months ago. Negative, boring football, longball style but weak and ineffective up front. For example playing against droylsden (who are part timers who have never won a conference game and had lost 11 on the trot) we played 532, with 5 centrebacks on the pitch and two more on the bench.

Oxford are a team that have spent the majority of their footballing existence in the Championship. They are now in relegation form in the conference.

The strong rumour now is that he has lost the dressing room, and the players are playing to get rid of him.


The biggest worry is that when Smith does 'move upstairs', how much influence will he have over the new manager.

scoobydoo
8th October 2007, 14:30
I also remember the Exeter game earlier in the season mug, you were coasting that one werent you 2-0 up and let them back in. It was an un real turnaround really but last 20 mins Oxford just dropped off them?:doh

Do you know, does he have much to do with Harry Redknapp now? I saw an interview where he said that he doesnt get so many racing tips from him anymore but just wondered if they'd had a fall out after him leaving Pompey?

Merlin
8th October 2007, 14:39
My dog could have got us promoted last season :ermmm




:laugh

Mug OUFC
8th October 2007, 14:55
I also remember the Exeter game earlier in the season mug, you were coasting that one werent you 2-0 up and let them back in. It was an un real turnaround really but last 20 mins Oxford just dropped off them?:doh

Do you know, does he have much to do with Harry Redknapp now? I saw an interview where he said that he doesnt get so many racing tips from him anymore but just wondered if they'd had a fall out after him leaving Pompey?

Exeter was because our keeper got taken off and his replacement had a mare.

I dont know about portsmouth, i heard mandaric thought smith was just harrys drinking buddy.

scoobydoo
8th October 2007, 14:57
Exeter was because our keeper got taken off and his replacement had a mare. Oh yes I remember now...




I dont know about portsmouth, i heard mandaric thought smith was just harrys drinking buddy.

:laugh Probably more than true!

Mug OUFC
9th October 2007, 12:49
My dog could probably pick better total goals bets than me as well. Never mind, back in the black with 0.03 points of profit :REGamblMo

BET ANALYSIS
Won 5
Lost 4
Total 9
Strike Rate 56%
Total Staked 9.00
Profit(loss) 0.03
Yield 0.33%


Bet 10: Kidderminster v Halifax OVER @ 1.83 (betfred)