£5000 here I come

[Winchy]

First selections her we go.

Both in the same race 16:50 we are going to lay:

Dispol Peto not to place. Currently 4.5 on Betfair to £40 so we will take all £50at 5.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.
Lady Pickpocket not to place. Currently 5.1 on Betfair to £43 so we will take all £50 at 6.0 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

Both selections to win £50.

[Winchy]

Two out of two today for a profit of £100. There where other qualifiers in my system today all which lost so profit could have been more. Good start though with 10% of bank in just one day.

Bank now
£1000 + £100 =
£1100

[Mavrick]

Yep good start, but risking over 35% of your bank on one race seems slightly dodgy.
Hope you can keep it up.

[Winchy]

My Strike rate is very high, so there should be no problems.

Usually there is only one selection per race around 3/4 per day on average.

Due to being place only my liability is not so bad at average prices of about 3/1.

Looking back at the last seven days I have had 37 selections with just 3 places. This is normal strike rate from my past results.

Thanks for you concern though. I will build it up a bit before raising the stakes.

[Win2Win]

90% SR can give 4 losers in a row. 3 Surprisingly often.

[bigcumba]

90% SR can give 4 losers in a row. 3 Surprisingly often.

Indeed, and the problem being you get those 3 in a row, followed by a win, then another 3 in a row.... wipeout!

[Winchy]

Agreed but this is a mythical bank and only aiming for a quick £5000.

[bigcumba]

Agreed but this is a mythical bank and only aiming for a quick £5000.

Of course, if it goes wrong it'll b a lesson learned for you and anyone who thinks it sounds like a good idea to stake like this... our only worry is that if it works (and it probably will), that someone will be naive enough to try it for real and lose money. Good luck anyway.

[Winchy]

After getting a lecture on staking from the moderator heres my next selection.

ILongue not to place in the 2-40 Wetherby. Currently 3.5 on Betfair to £73 so we will take all £50 at 3.8 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Iron Chris]

Good Luck with these, as you have been told it looks very risky staking...:yikes:

What I am struggling to understand is the part about taking higher odds to offset the commission...:doh...If you are laying them all for a fixed stake of £50 surely you are paying 5% on the £50 you are looking to win but increasing your liability by taking higher odds:geek


....it might just be me though...:)

[Winchy]

Well 3rd one lost so another £50 for the pot.

The reason for quoting the bigger price is that no one can complain about 3.3 or 3.4 not being available to £50 etc. By also quoting the higher odds (will pay to those if losing) even if much shorter is available is not having to stake the change (ie £53.27) to pay the commission. This is just for this challenge to make it easy figures.

On the staking front if I stuck to one of the forums golden rules and stuck to 3% of my bank it would take me forever to achieve reasonable profits. My way allows me to achieve profits quickly with my high % strike rate, remove profits and split thus if 3 or 4 losses on the trot occur as the moderator states must happen (and I agree), I am able to replace my original bank again from the already made profits.

P.S. In reality I play a lower percentage stake to loss to safeguard my bank and filter my system bets by sometimes not laying a selection due to the markets in certain races.

[Winchy]

Next

Here goes number 4 then....nice and early.

Anything Once not to place in the 8-50 Kempton. Currently 4.5 on Betfair to £90 so we will take £50 at 4.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Winchy]

Good, last one run a shocker, just as we like em.

Two out of two today for a profit of £100.

Bank now
£1100 + £100 =
£1200

[buddhabee]

Fortune favours the brave.

[bonnylad]

Winchy is 110% confident with his system.I think he will do it no problem.:thumbsOne more winning day,:ooo then its risk free until the next losing bet.:yikes:I hope the buses don't all come at once.:ermmm

[Winchy]

Well heres the next two, both in the same race, paying 4 places although there are already only 15 runners. I am slightly worried about the field splitting and my two ending up in a seven runner race on the correct side of the course with four places , but they are system selections so we will include them.

Andrasta not to place in the 2-40 Nottingham. Currently 4.1 on Betfair to so we will take all £50 at 4.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.
We Have A Dream not to place in the 2-40 Nottingham. Currently freely available at 3.8 on Betfair to so we will take all £50 at 4.2 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Winchy]

Thick and fast today.

After a loser hope they are not like buses.

Selection 7
Scarlet Oak not to place in the 3-10 Nottingham. Currently £300 at 4.2 on Betfair to so we will take all £50 at 4.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[mathare]

filter my system bets by sometimes not laying a selection due to the markets in certain races.Making it a method then...

[Winchy]

Mathare.

No a system....All the selections are system bets and are easily defined. A good example of my personal filtering to the system would be when a very short price odds on runs and only four really show in the betting (other four 33/1 plus) they are playing for 3 places so my fourth fav system bet laying at 5/2 is really poor value for the place. I suppose I could have made this a rule but due to different circumstances its hard to define. I might therefore choose not to bet a system selection. The selection is still a system pick but unbacked.

Missed a qualifier in the 5-00 which got beat in Hythe Bay. Was unable to post as no liquidity in the market when I was on my computer last.

Couple later on tonight will post then.

So far then:

Bank now
£1100-£170+£100+
£1130

[Win2Win]

The selection is still a system pick but unbacked.

That then makes it a 'method' bet.

[Winchy]

Ok lets be picky..if I lay it to the minimum 2p and not full stake is it now a system bet because I did back it?
I was always led to believe a method was, if given to a number of different people they would probably come up with similar but different selections. A System always comes up with the same selections whoever does the maths. So this is a system. Does matter if they run backed or not that is the individuals choice as is the staking.

Selection number 8

Boreanna not to place in the 7-50 Wolverhampton. Currently £70 at 3.8on Betfair to so we will take all £50 at 4.1 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Win2Win]

System - A set of rules that come up with a qualifier(s), and they are ALL backed/layed.
Method - A means of selecting the end bet, whether form a racecard, system selections, or pin pricks.....

[Winchy]

Thats it SCRAP......LOL

System

A procedure or process for obtaining the same objective; not open to interpretation.

If a person has a gut feeling, maybe its the wifes name, his/hers favourite horse and decides not to back the selection it is still a systematic selection not a methodical one. Therefore if the same selection is achieved whoever the user then its a system (or its behind the bikesheds afterschool for you my friend).

O yes almost forgot, we bagged another one.....

Bank now
£1100-£170+£50+£50+£50
£1180

[mathare]

Bank now
£1100-£170+£50+£50+£50
£1180System or method - that maths still doesn't work...

[Win2Win]

:laugh

[Win2Win]

Thats it SCRAP......LOL


I would think all the pro's & semi-pro's on here agree with my statement, you are the one running a high risk method, as already stated by another member in this thread. As this is a democratic forum, you are now in the LibDems :laugh

[Winchy]

Lol...I agree the Maths dont work......

Bank now
£1200-£170+£50+£50+£50
£1180

Libdems mmmmmmmm.....Im not conservative thats for sure.

Looking forward to tommorrow......found a what looks like a hatful of selections just browsing through. You will be looking forward to seeing me boom or bust then.

[Winchy]

There are loads of selections today, but due to work commitments, friday and all that, posting just the two that there is current liquidity in the markets.

Selections 9 and 10

Ronaldsay not to place in the 3-45 Newmarket. We will take all £50 at 5.0 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.
Angus News not to place in the 4-20 Newmarket. We will take all £50 at 5.0 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

There is plenty of liquidity at present to obtain these prices.

[Winchy]

Bank now
£1180-£400
£780

Unable to get to a computer yesterday so unable to post selections.
Will post todays selections closer to race time.

[Winchy]

Selections 11 and 12

Master Bell not to place in the 2-00 Hereford. We will take all £50 at 4.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.
Late Night Lisa not to place in the 2-00 Hereford. We will take all £50 at 5.0should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Winchy]

Selection 13

Olay Olay not to place in the 2-30 Hereford. We will take all £50 at 3.5 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.

[Winchy]

#29 1 Day Ago
Winchy
Forum Member Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 20
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Bank now
£780+£100-175
£705

Selection 14

Wesport not to place in the 3-10 Pontefract. We will take all £50 at 6.0 this should negate the 5% commission you would have deducted and get fully matched.