mathare's gamblog 2008 [Archive] - Win2Win UK Horse Racing Forum. Free Tips. Staking Advice.

mathare

4th January 2008, 20:15

The other thing I wanted to put near the start of this year's gamblog was some stats to the end of last year. I'm not going to publish stats for the systems I am no longer following so these stats effectively act as my starting point for 2008

BB stats for 31/12/2007
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>635</td><td align=center>242</td><td align=center>79</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>239</td><td align=center>163</td><td align=center>64</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.64%</td><td align=center>67.36%</td><td align=center>81.01%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>1.39</td><td align=center>55.23</td><td align=center>4.63</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.32%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>102</td><td align=center>410</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>32</td><td align=center>148</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>25.35%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>31.37%</td><td align=center>36.10%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>18.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>5.47</td><td align=center>84.32</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>20.72%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>7.20%</td><td align=center>9.01%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>0</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>125</td><td align=center>874</td><td align=center>777</td><td align=center>0</td><td align=center>149</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>2</td><td align=center>0</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>312</td><td align=center>288</td><td align=center>0</td><td align=center>55</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>29.60%</td><td align=center>35.70%</td><td align=center>37.07%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>36.91%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.88</td><td align=center>0.00</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-12.03</td><td align=center>80.52</td><td align=center>5.65</td><td align=center>0.00</td><td align=center>-4.69</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>-0.02%</td><td align=center>0.00%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>-0.06%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>296</td><td align=center>1300</td><td align=center>448</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>244</td><td align=center>0</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>241</td><td align=center>1120</td><td align=center>388</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>207</td><td align=center>0</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.42%</td><td align=center>86.15%</td><td align=center>86.61%</td><td align=center>81.69%</td><td align=center>84.84%</td><td align=center>.</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.45</td><td align=center>4.89</td><td align=center>9.80</td><td align=center>-1.15</td><td align=center>0.32</td><td align=center>0.00</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.62%</td><td align=center>13.14%</td><td align=center>10.77%</td><td align=center>13.75%</td><td align=center>6.78%</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table>

As I said elsewhere the plan is to publish weekly versions of these stats from this point forward

Fadetoblack

4th January 2008, 21:29

Why drop Timmy Murphy?

mathare

4th January 2008, 21:44

Why drop Timmy Murphy?Wasn't working out for me. I was getting a great overlay/overbet on the selections but at the end of the day I wasn't profiting from it so dumped it. Simple as.

mathare

5th January 2008, 00:27

Poker has been a mixed bag for me this evening. I think my strategy for these 10 pays 5 tables needs a little tweak.

I played 5 of them this evening and cashed in 3. I am annoyed at the way I busted out of the other two though...

Start of the second level (15/30) and I get KdQc in mid position. I have pretty much my starting stack and there's been one limper so I raise to 150 and get one caller with everyone else folding. Flop comes Jc Kc 6c so I have hit top pair and have a flush draw to the third nut flush. I bet 250 into a pot of 375 and he calls for a pot of 875. The turn comes down 8d which doesn't improve my hand. I don't really have a read on this guy (and I'm multi-tabling) but I feel he can be pushed out. I doubt he's flushed already and figure him for a draw (don't ask me why, instinct I guess) so I push all-in for 1060. He calls and flips Ac 7c for the nut flush and the river (10d) was rather irrelevant.

I massively overplayed that hand on the turn. I'm happy with the pre-flop and flop betting. I perhaps bet a little too much pre-flop and should have made it 4xBB (120) but my flop bet is OK I think, at two-thirds of the pot. What I should have done is check the turn, or put out a small bet as an intended blocker. I know that now and I knew that as soon as I hit all-in but the deed was done.

Oh well, a moment of weakness but at least I know I had done wrong so I guess that's something.

The second exit was even more irritating. I had built up a nice stack (2615) by the middle of level 2 so all I basically had to do was sit on it and cruise through to the cash. Yeah, right! At the start of level 3 (30/60) I get JJ in early position. My stack is still around 2600 at this point. There's been 1 limper before me and I limp. 1 more limper, SB folds and BB raises to 90 which all 3 of us call. Flop comes down 2-9-6 rainbow which is a great flop for me. It's checked to me and I lead out for 250 into a pot of 375, a fairly standard two-thirds pot bet. I get one caller to my left. The turn comes out 7h, potentially completing straight draws but they would have to have been gutshots and the odds weren't there for those by a long chalk. I check (why?) and he bets the pot (875). I put him all-in for a further 180 as I really don't think he has me beat. He flips 9c8c giving him top pair and an open-ended straight draw. The river is Ts and he's hit his draw and won the pot.

My stack is down to around 1200 and with 7 players left I need to be careful. I have 20xBB left so there is plenty of room to play poker at the minute. But the blinds go up in around 8 hands so I may need to get busy soon. By the time we get 6-handed my stack has dipped to 1130, around half of the next smallest stack. Time to turn thief. And that's what I did - every time I thought I could get away with it I pushed all-in and stole the blinds with everyone folding with barely a second thought. Nice. Through my good play and others bad play I got myself equal with two other stacks then surpassed them both. Time to cruise on home again. Yeah, right! I got out of line on one hand and blew it.

We're six-handed and I'm down to 1730 in the cut-off. The dealer has 1202.50 and the BB has 820 before posting her blind of 150 so she is in trouble. I get AdJd and it's folded round to me. I shove all my chips in and get a call from the big stack in the SB. Err, hang on, that's not in the plan. I was trying to isolate the BB or just steal figuring that AJs was strong enough even if I met resistance from a small stack. I didn't expect the SB to wake up with pocket Kings! The board came 3h-6s-5h-9s-3d and I was out. And very angry with myself. Fold AJs in that situation and I (very probably) make the money with the blinds eating away at two smaller stacks.

Looking back, if I had lost and doubled up even the BB I would have been in trouble as that puts me down on around 850 with the blinds approaching. I couldn't afford to risk playing that hand and should have folded. The daft thing is earlier in similar situations in other tourneys I had happily folded KK and AQs (a hand I love to play) as I didn't need to play them as I had a good enough stack.

As it happens I also made a very similar move in a later tourney (that I did cash in, fortunately). We're 6-handed again and in pure mid-position I get ATo and decide to steal the blinds, figuring I could do with the chips to make sure (my stack was 1825 with blinds of 100/200; two shorter stacks of around 1200 each). This time the BB wakes up with Kings and he has me covered so calls. The flop comes 6-A-4 (phew), turn is 6d and river is 4c so my hand stands up (double phew) and I cripple the BB's stack leaving him on 520. That was stupid but lucky.

Like I said, a slight strategy revision required. I know stealing from the stacks who look safe should be OK but only if they think they are safe. And don't wake up with KK! But I need to watch which hands I am playing when I have what looks to be a good enough stack to see me through and not risk busting for nothing.

These tourneys are good fun to play though and quite easy to multi-table. I will be playing a lot more of these. I need a better than 55% SR to profit and I think that should be easy enough. My average finish is 4th over 165 10-seater tourneys. If they were all 10 pays 5 tourneys I would have cashed in 115/165 for a strike rate of a touch under 70%, which would suffice but I am sure I can do better than that on these tourneys. I need to build up a lot more data for them before I can be sure though. My goal is to play 100 and then re-evaluate how I am doing with them.

mathare

5th January 2008, 17:50

You're going to have to put up with quite a bit of poker chatter I'm afraid if things continue like they have been. I know I am probably just talking to myself but you don't realise how useful it is for me to get these things down on 'paper' as it really helps reinforce things in my head. Anyway...

Played 3 more '10 pays 5' tourneys this afternoon and cashed in 2 of them. Nothing much to say about those, except that the last one of them lasted ages (1h 17m) and we were on level 9 before the bubble burst. I was rarely in any danger in either of the two I won though. But the one I lost - that's a different story.

We're 8-handed with blinds at 75/150 and I get AA in the cut-off. There are two limpers so I shove all in (1595) the thinking being I either take down the pot (525) here and now putting me on a better stack for survival or I double-up, either suits me really. I get a call from the early position limper, who I had covered, and everyone else folds. My AA v their TT. Flop comes 8-5-T. Great! I need to hit to win now. Turn is a King, river a Queen and my stack is crippled (400). I'm sure I don't need to tell you that my opponent was a touch over 4/1 to win that hand pre-flop. ;fire

With less than 3xBB it's time for drastic action. I take down a pot for 1025 to keep me alive and pay the blinds, folding trash to raises. Then I get TT on the button. There has been an all-in under the gun for 1375 and it's folded round to me. Fold or shove? I have 5xBB so I figure I should shove and hope TT stands up. It's heads-up and UTG shows A6o. I am in good shape here, 72% favourite to win the hand. Flop comes 2-J-3 and I'm now 85% to win. The turn is another Jack and I am now a massive 93% to take it down and double through. My opponent is drawing to three outs - the remaining Aces. So of course the river has to be one of the three and his two pair beat my two pair to put me out in 8th.

I hate TT!

While playing poker I did dutch a couple of races for 35-40% profits each though so it's not all bad :)

Iron Chris

5th January 2008, 21:52

Quick question Mat, feel free to shoot me if I have missed it...:wink

Where are you playing these 10 pays 5 tourneys?

mathare

6th January 2008, 12:13

Where are you playing these 10 pays 5 tourneys?Ladbrokes. It's where I said I would set up my tourney poker bankroll and I have stuck to that, fortunately :)

mathare

6th January 2008, 12:32

One thing I meant to talk about yesterday but forgot was my mission to rationalise my poker accounts and the fund and games that has involved. Those of you who have read my gambling review and full action plan (members only I'm afraid folks as it contains a lot of stuff I don't want any guest forumites to see for nowt) will know of the trouble I have had with Party Poker. Well, finally those days are over.

The other evening I finally built up enough loyalty points to make my withdrawal so I did just that, emptying my account completely. For non-members suffice it to say that I set up a cash game bankroll with Party before realising that to withdraw I had to pay fees (unless withdrawing to eWallets such as Neteller) and had to have a certain number of loyalty points. As the funds in my account are mine I wasn't happy about these conditions on getting to my own cash so I swore to get my funds out of there ASAP and I have now done that. My withdrawal to Neteller was approved and that allowed me to make a small deposit to PKR which in turn allowed me to withdraw the rest of my PKR funds back to that Neteller account.

That just leaves me with 'spare' money in CD Poker (non-withdrawable funds as it was awarded as a welcome bonus and needs to be played through about a thousand times), just over $75 in Empire Poker (which uses the Party Poker engine and as I didn't deposit via Neteller I can't withdraw to it and I don't want to pay fees on top of the foreign currency transaction fees by bank would charge as the site is in USD so I am keeping this one as a fun, burn off steam bank) and a free $9 in Poker Room which I have never used. Then I have my Ladbrokes tournament bankroll and will soon set up a Blue Square cash bankroll.

But back to Neteller for a brief moment. I tried yesterday to withdraw all my funds to my bank account. Initially it would let me, as long as I supplied my IBAN and BIC details for the account I had previously registered with Neteller. I didn't know such details so I cancelled the withdrawal process for now and phoned my bank to obtain these details. My bank told me they don't give out such info over the phone and to check a recent statement. I eventually dug out a statement from about 6 months back and found what I needed so I went back to Neteller to make that withdrawal. Only now the bank account option wasn't there. Because I had cancelled the process before it had removed my registered bank account and I would need to re-register. At least that is what seems to have happened because I know (and have evidence) that I registered a bank account with them but their customer support team are telling me there is nothing showing on their sytem and that my Neteller account has no associated bank account. So I am currently in the process of re-registering my bank account, which takes a few days, and then I can finally get my hands on my money again and use some of that to set up my cash game bankroll.

The lesson here, kids, is stick to sites with easy banking such as those with integrated sportsbook and poker accounts (Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Blue Square, Bet365 etc.) if you want to get your money out again.

mathare

6th January 2008, 16:13

I seem to be hitting a wall around level 5 of these '10 pays 5' tourneys. If I haven't built up a stack by this point and am down to 10-15xBB I seem to struggle, especially when the table is still quite full. I've busted out of two so far like that.

The first time I had 11xBB with the blinds due to go up shortly so I shoved UTG with a weak ace (A5o) trying to represent a decent hand. I had been watching the others to act after me and had marked this down as a decent steal attempt given who was in the blinds. Dealer calls with AKo and SB calls with AJo so I am dominated all over the shop and unsurpisingly lose the hand.

The second time I was in a race with AsQs v 99. The pre-flop betting was steady with my raise from the SB getting this one caller and the flop coming Tc-Js-7s to give me a lot of outs. I had 9 outs to the flush and 3 more outs with the Kings for the straight. All the money went in on the flop, a 7 came on the turn and a 9 on the river to give him a full house which beat my Ace high all ends up really.

Disappointing but a learning experience.

I figured I'd be able to do really well in these tourneys and have a strike rate around 75-80% but that is looking a long way off at present. More practice needed I guess.

mathare

6th January 2008, 19:44

Not my afternoon poker-wise :(

I cashed in two '10 pays 5' tourneys to recover some of my earlier losses and then fancied a bit of a change of pace so played the second level ($10+1) of a treble chance ladders tourney using a token I won playing level 1 ages back.

It was going well enough and we were down to 6 players with 4th getting a token for the same level and the top 3 getting entry to the next level. I had built up a mid-sized stack and was sat safely enough for now. I had 2020 with blinds at 100/200. I get 4s5c in the small blind, two players limp so I make up the difference and the BB checks so 4 of us see a flop of 2d-2c-5c giving me two pair. I bet out 500 and get 1 caller. The turn is a dream card, 5h to give me a full house. There's 1800 in the pot and with a hand like this I am looking to get all the money in the middle and double up so I check, expecting my opponent to bet so I can check-raise all-in. He checks behind me and while the free card play wasn't what I was after I figure it isn't disastrous as I have a very strong hand. The river is 9h and I shove. He insta-calls but then he would as he holds 9s9d for a bigger full house. ;fire

mathare

6th January 2008, 23:00

I told at least one forum member some time back that I had made significant strides towards this and that I was finally getting somewhere. That may have been a little premature!

I have been looking into it a bit more this afternoon/evening and I think that in order to do what I want to do I need to learn Visual Basic (which is distinct from VBA) and Visual Studio 2008. I used to do quite a bit of programming and still do odd bits here and there in VBA so what I need to learn isn't rocket science for me (although at times I wish it was because I am quite good at that) but it is going to take time for me to get to grips with these things. When I do I then need to make sure that I can do what I am planning to do with Auto-Sys in the way I am planning to do it and then develop it. That's a long process given I can't work on it full-time.

However, whilst writing this post (and playing poker, so there goes that 'focus more on the game' resolution!) I have just come up with a sort of plan. It needs some thought and discussion with a few key people but I may be able to offer an Auto-Sys of sorts for 3rd-party systems in the not too distant future.

Watch this, and various other bits of, space...

mathare

6th January 2008, 23:33

One final lesson to leave you with today: don't try coding VBA, writing forum posts and playing poker at the same time - your poker will inevitably suffer. Trust me, I know these things.

Yep, busted out again. I lost out to a bigger full-house that again came on the river. I held QJ on a flop of KJ2 and bet out to see where I was. Two callers so no real info. The turn comes a J and once more I check it trying to trap. Check, check and a K on the river to reduce my amazing hand to something rather second-rate. I check-call a small-average bet and am not surprised to see him show a K. Later on I got distracted and frustrated in equal measure and threw the rest of my stack away chasing a flush draw. I had the odds, just about, but I had a feeling as soon as I called them off that I was betting into a made hand. The guy had flopped a straight and the turn and river both came rags so my flush draw didn't hit and I was out, in 9th.

Not a great day for me at the poker tables today.

7th January 2008, 03:00

Mat, how are you finding the time to place your bets?

Like me, you seem to have a rake of systems on the go as well as other personal stuff. I've managed to get my hands on some bet placement software (and with the help of MattR, excel places all my bets for me). Do you do it all at once or throughout the day?

Up until recently, bet placement was taking a huge amount of time from me.

mathare

7th January 2008, 10:17

Mat, how are you finding the time to place your bets?
Takes me 15-20 minutes at lunchtime I guess, and that's it. No big deal at all. What takes/took you so long?

I can copy down the qualifiers into my spreadsheet in less than 10 minutes, for all systems. Then it's simply a case of bunging the lays in at Betdaq
with orders at the best backing price, or slightly below. For the backs I compare Oddschecker's best price with Betdaq and bung the bet on wherever offers the best price. All my stakes are automatically calculated so it's just typing numbers into betting slips online. It's all very quick.

I wouldn't want Excel to place bets for me automatically. It takes all the human involvement, and fun, out of it. I like to watch the results on and off and think "yay, I won on that race" or what have you. I like some degree of involvement. I'd hate to switch the PC on at the end of racing and have it tell me how much I won/lost that day without me having anything to do with it.

counterfeit

7th January 2008, 11:37

Hi Mat

It seems to me that you have a slight problem with the STT's.

I'm no doctor but I would say you are suffering from a distinct case of hyperactivity causing a loss of concentration.

You cannot afford to play poker half heartedly and expect to win. If you want to do other things at the same time (and I am just as guilty of this) your poker will suffer.

On the occasions that you are playing poker and doing nothing else it seems as though your desire to get things over with is causing you to play marginal/bad hands.

I spoke about this in one of my ramblings the other day. In the 10 pays 5 tourneys, you know that 3 people wil go out playing like idiots who have too much money. That means that if you play a proper sensible game you will end up playing a 7 pays 5 tourney. That is where discipline and position become paramount.

I played 10 STTs on Friday and cashed in 9, which spolit my hit rate a bit so although it was successful I was annoyed because I came 7th in the one I busted out of. That was through stupidity and not concentrating and I was really annoyed with myself.

It's all very well passing on advice to you but I really must follow it myself.

Good luck with the ongoing poker quest for riches and enjoyment.

monty

7th January 2008, 11:52

Now is as good a time as any to get this started :)

I think it's worth summarising my action plan here so I have something to refer to throughout and to act as a reminder

General

Prepare 2008 betting record spreadsheet Done 05/01/08
Purchase The Staking Machine software
Make better use of Bet-IE, Bet Trader Pro etc.
Open more bookie accounts (BetFred, Boyle Sports)
Maintain gamblog with regular (at least weekly) entries Started 04/01/08
Regularly review Action Plan
Auto-Sys for 3rd party systems

Systems

Replace flat combo system with separate banks for Goodun, ABS, Flat Monthly and Running for Profit Done 01/01/08
Replace NH combo system with separate banks for Double Top, NH Media, NH Monthly and Jumping for Profit Done 01/01/08
Drop TJ Murphy, Claiming Jockey, First Timer, Trainer 3 and Six+ Loser systems Done 01/01/08
Review staking of all remaining systems at the earliest opportunity

Lays

Review staking of all lay systems at the earliest opportunity
Add Easy Money Lays to portfolio Done 01/01/08

Football

More stats-based betting
Develop spreadsheet to assist with above

Poker

Play more fixed limit hold'em cash game and NLHE STTs
Start new bankroll for Cash game poker
Start new tourney bankroll (Ladbrokes) Done 29/12/07
Focus more on game in hand
Take notes on all opponents
Buy-in for $25 when playing $0.50-$1
Regular analysis of results with Poker Office
Rationalise poker accounts

Casino

Stan James casino account - weekly free chips competitions
Evaluate/compare blackjack staking plans

Well Mathare, you did say to me that your were busy? and by the looks of all that you have been really busy. . . :D

mathare

7th January 2008, 12:55

It seems to me that you have a slight problem with the STT's.

I'm no doctor but I would say you are suffering from a distinct case of hyperactivity causing a loss of concentration.You're spot on with all of that and I know what my problems are. I am just having a bit of a hard time addressing them. I have said several times that online poker is a blessing and a curse as it being online means I have endless other distractions at my fingertips. I need to focus better on the poker (and not posting here and coding at the same time). It's one of my resolutions for this year and I need to start acting on it ASAP.

You have to admit though, yesterday was poor with my full houses getting cracked.

mathare

7th January 2008, 12:55

Well Mathare, you did say to me that your were busy? and by the looks of all that you have been really busy. . . :DThat ain't the half of it!

Mavrick

7th January 2008, 13:46

All these posts are a great read. I haven't played poker in years, but have started to get back into thanks to these 10 pays 5 tourneys. Does anyone recommend any sites or books to read especially geared towards tourneys and not cash games?
I've read a few general poker books in my time, but in all honesty I can't really remember them much.

Oh and in them tourney mentioned above, does anyone aim to get like 3000 chips and then sit out or do something similar or is that just a silly thing to do?

mathare

7th January 2008, 14:08

Does anyone recommend any sites or books to read especially geared towards tourneys and not cash games?I got a few for xmas, when I've read 'em I'll let you know if they are any good. But for now just play tight-aggressive and you'll be OK

Oh and in them tourney mentioned above, does anyone aim to get like 3000 chips and then sit out or do something similar or is that just a silly thing to do?I won't do that because you can never be sure that 3000 is enough. It should be as it's twice your starting stack and you need to get 5th or better but the other players can just trade blinds with one another and whittle your stack down if they know what they are doing. And it's very obvious when someone is sitting out the rest of a tournament. Plus when it gets down to 5 there is no point folding anything. Everyone should be all-in every hand to get it over with so if you're on auto-fold you drag the game out unnecessarily

7th January 2008, 14:34

Takes me 15-20 minutes at lunchtime I guess, and that's it. No big deal at all. What takes/took you so long?

.

Well, I've around fifty systems on the go now, and the lay ones were taking quite a bit of time as they were price based. A lot of my trial lay systems use stakes under the minimum €4, to that was taking a while to get around. I suppose it was taking me 3/4 of an hour to get everything done which is a lot if you only have an hour for lunch. The main problem with letting excel place the bets is that the horse name etc, has to be exact and all commas etc removed as betfair don't include them. Otherwise, I find it handy, as I can work out my systems the night before, then switch on the computer the next day and off I go. I don't really feel detached from betting as most of the systems are my creation, so I still feel responsible for the wins and losses.

Mavrick

7th January 2008, 14:36

Thanks mat. Yeah let us know what books you think are decent once you have read them.

I seem to have trouble seeing out my games, even if I have a nice stake of chips come half way through, so that's what I need to work on. For instance, I'm playing at the moment and I got upto 5000, which completely ruined my mentality as I just went into protect mode, and a couple of loose calls later I'm down to 3800.

Jonny2621

7th January 2008, 14:51

mathare

7th January 2008, 14:52

I seem to have trouble seeing out my games, even if I have a nice stake of chips come half way through, so that's what I need to work on. For instance, I'm playing at the moment and I got upto 5000, which completely ruined my mentality as I just went into protect mode, and a couple of loose calls later I'm down to 3800.5000 is a fold everything stack - even Aces as I did yesterday. You don't need to play a hand so let everyone else knock the rest of the players out while you fold away. Loose calls will see you lose chips and potentially put yourself in danger. 5th is as good as 1st don't forget. That said, 3800 is enough to see you through safely so don't beat yourself up over this one too much but watch the calls in the future.

counterfeit

7th January 2008, 18:46

This disucssion is getting so big we ought to open up a thread in the poker forum.

Anyway, I agree with Mat in that if I get beyond 4000 chips I literally fold everything (unless a ludicrously short stack moves on my BB).

My kids were home today because of a training day at school and I played 1 table and got to the money with 800 chips. I couldn't concentrate properly so gave up before I started to lose money.

The good news is that my wife is home from work so I can look forward to some poker tonight and hopefully turn in a profit.

As for Mat getting two full houses overturned - that is really unlucky but both of them were only using one of your hole cards so there was always a danger that there would be a better FH out. You knew that and bet accordingly in one hand which was good, sensible (nigh on professional) play.

On the other you were very unlucky to run into an overpair and I also would have gone bust in that hand.

mathare

7th January 2008, 18:57

As for Mat getting two full houses overturned - that is really unlucky but both of them were only using one of your hole cards so there was always a danger that there would be a better FH out.True, true. I was pleased that I didn't go bust on the second one and unsurprised I went bust on the first. But for all that to come on one day was truly annoying.

And you're right, maybe we need a 10 pays 5 poker thread. Be nice to get some proper poker chatter going again

Mavrick

7th January 2008, 19:51

A 10 pays 5 thread sounds like a great idea as I need as much help as I can get:)

I know the basics, and I've got discipline, but I still never seem to be able to break even.

Does anyone use a technique, that never involves them never going all-in, or never risking more than a certain % of there chips, even if they're are the heavy fav, but can still get beat, as I've been knocked out the last two times, on the river when my pair has been beaten by a better pair and and it really pees me off:) as I would love to be able to make money out of these tourneys without having to risk everything, even if in the long terms the odds would imply that I would come out on top.

mathare

8th January 2008, 21:18

Not much more to say here today. I had a good day with some nice winners but it was steady rather than anything special.

I do have to wonder how Betdaq punters expect to make much money long term though when they are willing to lay 16/1 shots at 62.0 (Where's The Boss) :ermmm And also when they take my 5.8 about horses that go off 12/1 (Tagula Sunrise) :D Needless to say I got some good prices today :laugh

And no fewer than 5 banks hit new highs: System Banker, ABS, Running for Profit, Double Top and NH Media. Bit unfair to include the last four as they are new banks but a new high is a new high at the end of the day.

Evening off now, watching a film (I Am Legend) with the missus

paul183195

9th January 2008, 17:54

hi mat, i was just wondering when do you decide to drop a system, if it has bust the bank a couple of times, once, or if it is showing a loss after a certain amount of bets ?

mathare

10th January 2008, 10:15

hi mat, i was just wondering when do you decide to drop a system, if it has bust the bank a couple of times, once, or if it is showing a loss after a certain amount of bets ?I will NEVER bust a bank twice, and very rarely bust a bank once. That's why I have bank barriers in place to prevent that from happening.

I make a keep/ditch decision on systems every time I do a staking/gambling review, which happens at least at the end of every year and sometimes at other points during the year depending on how much time I have and what the drivers are behind such a review. If I don't think it is up to scratch I ditch it without a second thought. That decision is based on profit to date, SR, ROI, number of qualifiers and all sorts of things.

counterfeit

10th January 2008, 18:07

Jonny2621

10th January 2008, 18:15

I don't think this is worth a thread of its own but a gamblog seems a good place to ask the question.

I see a lot of people on various forums who try to increase their bank by 3% per day. If I wanted to start a new system would a 3% increase per day be realistic.

It seems a bit high to me but most of my systems are slow burners so I might just be backing the wrong systems or is 3% unrealistic?

In my humble opinion 1% is more realistic. Ive tried 3% myself and eventually you come under pressure to keep up with the target and go for bets that are not good ones.

I'd go 1% and if on certain days you hit 3% or more it goes in the kitty.

Some days, like today, the racing is so bad that you'd rather not have a target to chase ....:D

mathare

10th January 2008, 18:17

I see a lot of people on various forums who try to increase their bank by 3% per day. If I wanted to start a new system would a 3% increase per day be realistic.

It seems a bit high to me but most of my systems are slow burners so I might just be backing the wrong systems or is 3% unrealistic?Any daily target is unrealistic. You should have a good balance of systems with a mix of SRs and ROIs with banks that increase at different rates with different risk factors to give you a spread of systems really. Then your banks should increase, some faster than others. It may average out to 3% per day but it'll be in spikes and troughs generally speaking. Do not expect 3% each and every day and you won't be disappointed. Never chase losses to try and get to a set daily profit figure as you will come unstuck. Let the systems do the hard work, you just stake sensibly and take the money as it comes in

mathare

12th January 2008, 21:03

Figured I should bring this up to date a bit more.

The horses have been up and down for me in the past few days, but mostly up albeit not to a massive extent. I am happy with the way things are progressing though and really believe the recent gambling review was a good move. I'm a bit annoyed that I only got 5.2 on Weet By Far who just won the 7.20 At Wolves though. I went with Betdaq as it offered the best price when I placed the bet (about 5.30) but had I struck the bet with Stan James or Bet365 I would have got the 9/1 with their best odds guarantee. Still, a winner is a winner innit?

Talking of winners I had another couple of successful dutches today (2.15 At Kempton and 3.30 at Warwick) so that is ticking along nicely and the bank continues to climb steadily. When the bank doubles (currently stands at around 165% of starting value) I will consider stepping back the staking percentage a little. But making more use of Bet-IE seems to be another good decision made during the gambling review.

Played 1 more 10 pays 5 STT earlier and busted out in 7th, mainly because I got KK in the small blind and the button had AA. He raised, I re-raised and he shoved all in so I called. The blinds were low but I figured to be in good shape pre-flop and had him covered by over 400 chips. His aces held up, of course. I stole and bluffed my way to around 1000 chips again but by now the blinds were significant and I lost out with AQo against AKo. Flop came 9-Q-T and I knew what was coming as one of the next two cards. Yep, the turn came the J and the river was a rag. Goodnight Vienna.

Ah well.

By the way, the stats I said I was going to put up once a week - where are they? I am waiting for the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose against the New England Patriots in the NFL play-offs. I took Jacksonville at 22s to win the Super Bowl before their previous play-off match looking to trade out when they won, as I was confident they would do. And trade out I did for a small profit by laying at 16.5 the morning after the game. Incidentally Jacksonville are available at 24 on Betfair now so I am glad I traded when I did. But this trade is still open, although my book is green, until Jacksonville either win the Super Bowl or are eliminated in the play-offs. And this open bet means my stats for 4th Jan (when I placed the bet) are incomplete so until that is settled either way I won't have stats to publish. Obviously if they lose to the Pats then I can settle the bet and publish my stats. Otherwise I have to wait longer, perhaps even till the Super Bowl itself. :yikes:

The missus is out tonight so after I have reheated some of last night's pizza I sense some poker action in the offing

mathare

13th January 2008, 13:11

These stats are brought to you courtesy of Tom Brady...

BB stats for 07/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>648</td><td align=center>243</td><td align=center>83</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>245</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>68</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.81%</td><td align=center>67.49%</td><td align=center>81.93%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.49</td><td align=center>56.18</td><td align=center>5.81</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.25%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>76</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>103</td><td align=center>442</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>32</td><td align=center>163</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.68%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>31.07%</td><td align=center>36.88%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>13.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>4.47</td><td align=center>99.82</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>22.02%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>7.53%</td><td align=center>9.67%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>126</td><td align=center>893</td><td align=center>781</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>162</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>2</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>321</td><td align=center>292</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>60</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>29.37%</td><td align=center>35.95%</td><td align=center>37.39%</td><td align=center>55.56%</td><td align=center>37.04%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>0.30</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-13.03</td><td align=center>84.45</td><td align=center>11.20</td><td align=center>2.71</td><td align=center>-6.72</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>33.94%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>0.18%</td><td align=center>0.16%</td><td align=center>0.04%</td><td align=center>4.73%</td><td align=center>-0.23%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>1304</td><td align=center>468</td><td align=center>74</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>4</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>245</td><td align=center>1124</td><td align=center>404</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>213</td><td align=center>3</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.67%</td><td align=center>86.20%</td><td align=center>86.32%</td><td align=center>82.43%</td><td align=center>85.20%</td><td align=center>75.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.07</td><td align=center>5.33</td><td align=center>8.78</td><td align=center>-0.85</td><td align=center>0.90</td><td align=center>-0.60</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.75%</td><td align=center>13.15%</td><td align=center>10.89%</td><td align=center>14.12%</td><td align=center>6.47%</td><td align=center>16.47%</td></tr></table>

counterfeit

14th January 2008, 11:25

Mat

How do you decide what race to dutch in?

I've tried dutching but with mixed success - I have made a profit but it is very small as the races I have lost in have a huge impact on previous profits.

I tend to dutch in a race where 2 or 3 horses are say 4/1 or below and the next horse in the betting is at least 10/1.

I can't seem to find much advice on dutching on T'internet so I know my strategy needs looking at.

mathare

14th January 2008, 12:13

How do you decide what race to dutch in?Bet-IE tells me whether a race is dutchable or not :)

mathare

14th January 2008, 23:56

does anyone aim to get like 3000 chips and then sit out or do something similar or is that just a silly thing to do?

I won't do that because you can never be sure that 3000 is enough. It should be as it's twice your starting stack and you need to get 5th or better but the other players can just trade blinds with one another and whittle your stack down if they know what they are doing.I had pretty much exactly this situation this evening in the one tourney I managed to fit in. It took till the 10th level to get a winner. I went out in 5th after 99 hands, and 1 hour and 20 minutes. I had stayed tight, very tight in the early levels. I was getting poor cards and with no need to steal small pots I did no pre-flop raising till well into the mid-blind levels (levels 4-5). I had a stack of around 2000 which I built up to around 3000 when an all-in steal from one off the button got an unexpected (and rather unwelcome) caller. I had A6o and the BB showed KTo. It was a risky steal from me in a way but it was for information as much as anything as I felt the button was too passive and the SB was similar. But I had 10BB left and felt like a shove. I expected the BB, who had around 1000 more chips than me to give up his 150 chips and let it go but he ummed and ahhed and called. I survived (luckily) but I did go into the flop as a narrow favourite (57-43) and in actual fact was never behind in the hand having just calculated the odds.

Anyway, we're down to 9 players with the blinds at 75/150 and there is a lot of tight play. I figure my stack is good enough and tighten up even further. I'm not playing into raised pots, I'm not playing out of position and I am folding trash without a second thought. I was also witnessing some dreadful short stack play - something I would see huge amounts of this evening. There were several players (at least 4) with stacks within a few hundred of the starting stack of 1500. The blinds rose so they are all in the 5BB-10BB region but do they shove? Nope. I fold a few and steal the odd pot from the SB as well as getting a few walks from the right and my stack remains healthy enough. I am chip leader or 2nd chip leader for most of it. But many of these guys are content to trade blinds. The other middling (but bigger than them) stacks are playing for safety. It's as though the bubble play has kicked in with 7 or 8 players at the table! There are hands where the BB is a known folder in the face of a raise but the button is too timid to do anything and the SB folds also. There was a lot of that. I was starting to get annoyed and nearly shoved on a few occasions thinking I would have to do their job for them and steal these blinds but others usually got their first, or I thought better of it after looking at my decent chip position.

I got a lucky break when I shoved my 1515 into the middle with the blinds at 300/600 and an earlier min raise. He called my shove and we flipped 'em over. My AK versus his KK. Oh :censored: I was 70-30 against on this one but I had a saving grace - my Ace was the same suit as one of his Kings. If the Ace didn't hit I had the outside chance of a flush draw. No A but two hearts on the flop meant I was now only 4/1 to win the hand. Woohoo! The 10 of hearts on the turn put me back to 30% to win again and VERY luckily the river was 8h and I had hit the nut flush and won a very nice pot (4230 chips). This was surely a safe enough stack to see me into the money, no?

Actually, it was, but only just. The blind trading among the small stacks continued with one guy (who finished 6th) nursing a small stack for a long time. He even folded his 800 BB when he only had 690 left after posting and I shoved in on him trying to bust him. In the end it was me, him and the guy who called me earlier from the BB in the pot that did for me. And what a hand for me to go bust on!

We're 6-handed and I get AA on the button. Oh yes! The short stacks are in the blinds. UTG calls and it is folded round to me so I shove all in. 3930 chips with the blinds at 400/800 I figure it's only 5BB so it has to all go in. I was 2nd in chips at the time but the blind-trading by others had left me feeling a little vulnerable. They were determined to turn this game into a crap-shoot at the high blinds so with Aces I had to make a stand. Shove. The SB folds and the BB calls off his remaining 240 chips (bless). I figure the UTG limper will drop it and be happy to make the money when I bust the BB. No, he bloody calls. Again. That's twice he has done that to me. He called me first time with TdKs and lost. This time he had... ThKs. Same King but the other red 10. He lost last time and I am well in front this time with the BB holding Jc3s. I'm over 75% to win the pot at this stage and that doesn't change much when the flop comes down 5c-8s-Td. The turn card of 9c gives the short-stack a little hope but I am still around 70% to win the hand. So a King on the river was just a little mean as UTG has busted us both. I had more chips than the BB so he finishes 6th and I bag 5th. But 5th is as good as first in terms of payouts.

It goes to show though that if some players either know what they are doing and play a cunning game or are so stupid that even the basics of tournament play escape them then even a decent-looking stack can be put in danger if they can turn the game into a high-blind crap-shoot. I guess it's a form of implicit collusion and one that there is not much anyone can do about it. Players are trying to hold out a short stack till the bubble bursts but if too many people try it then it can change the game radically as the blinds just move round the table without the bigger stacks getting their 'fair' share of the walks that are happening. In real terms the short stacks get shorter as the blinds increase and they have less fold equity but without someone willing to shove and risk going bust this game is likely to continue in that vein. And there was no way I was shoving from 2nd chip lead without a monster.

So there you go: a very real example of why you shouldn't get to 3000 chips and then sit out.

Mavrick

15th January 2008, 02:59

I have played a ton of these tourneys the last few days and have had a few very similar experiences where I don't think 5000 chips would have been remotely safe. I must have gone all-in about 10 times in one of them.

I play a couple of tables at the same time, but I try and stagger them by a couple of levels so that they don't both hit the bubble at the same time, but when one just keeps dragging on and they both are at high blinds it can be a real struggle to keep up. It's a good buzz though when they finish if you make it into the money.

I only wish they were on Betfair or are they? so I could be earning some commision points, as I've got a stack of player points now and I can't really be bothered to spend 4 hours+ playing an MTT when I'm rubbish at them.

mathare

16th January 2008, 10:20

A bit of a rethink on the poker front after last night (won 1, lost 1). I've now cashed in 12/20 of these 10 pays 5 STTs and that is well down on what I thought I could do. I know I can play NLHE tourney poker and should be able to beat the STTs but these equal payout tourneys are a slightly different beast to the normal versions and a different strategy is required when it comes to the bubble I think.

Once we get 6- or 7-handed and I don't have a stack of 2500+ I think I am struggling. I seem to be, panicking isn't quite the right word but it's close, too early, especially when there are 3 or 4 of us on similar stacks of 1000-2000 chips and the blinds are big. I am always very conscious of my fold equity and make all-in steal raises when I think I can get away with it. Not many other players seem to do that at this level. It could be the fact that it's only a $5 STT so the players are weak and don't know how to play well on the bubble or it could be a factor of these equal payout tourneys as there is no incentive to aim for 1st place.

What I need to do is review my play around the bubble in the tourneys I have busted out of, running the hands through odds calculators to see whether I am shoving in bad spots or busting out unluckily on hands I 'should' have won. I then want to compare that to my short-handed and bubble play in regular STTs.

I'm going to play 50 of these equal payout tourneys (so 30 more) and then re-evaluate my position. Poker is a nice evening pastime at the minute but it's not making me much in the way of cash. If after 50 tourneys I am making a reasonable profit and have pushed my bankroll over $300 (currently $264) then I will take 1 shot at a $10+1 equal payout tourney to see if the standard of play is any better and whether it suits my game better. I'll then go from there as to whether I play $5 or $10 tourneys. If I am roughly breaking even or losing slightly (I don't think I'll be losing heavily based on my play and results to date) over 50 tourneys I'll have a think about what to do next. What I am leaning towards is playing 50 regular STTs and comparing the results to the equal payouts.

But for now I will use Poker Office to review my play to date and check out my bubble play. I think I am pushing too early (stack of 7-10BB) when others are surviving with 2-3BB and also perhaps folding too many hands out of the SB or from the BB to a min raise. Maybe I should be playing some of these hands. Standard STT bubble strategy doesn't seem to apply too well here.

mathare

18th January 2008, 20:08

I spend all day at work telling software developers not to make changes that could break the software just before we have to send a release of it out to the customer and then I come home and do exactly that :laugh I rewrote some of my spreadsheet the other day and I broke my stats, which is why the week 2 stats haven't been posted up here yet. But unlike the developers at work I found the problem straight away and fixed it :thumbs So...

BB stats for 14/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>651</td><td align=center>244</td><td align=center>86</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>71</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.94%</td><td align=center>67.21%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.71</td><td align=center>57.12</td><td align=center>6.42</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.24%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>469</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>172</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.84%</td><td align=center>36.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>5.49</td><td align=center>106.85</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>5.87%</td><td align=center>9.79%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>134</td><td align=center>902</td><td align=center>786</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>167</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>42</td><td align=center>325</td><td align=center>294</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>63</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>55.56%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>31.34%</td><td align=center>36.03%</td><td align=center>37.40%</td><td align=center>38.89%</td><td align=center>37.72%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>2.37</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-3.25</td><td align=center>85.78</td><td align=center>10.68</td><td align=center>-2.02</td><td align=center>-5.31</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>35.55%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>0.91%</td><td align=center>0.27%</td><td align=center>0.08%</td><td align=center>-2.86%</td><td align=center>-0.24%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>303</td><td align=center>1307</td><td align=center>480</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>255</td><td align=center>12</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>1127</td><td align=center>415</td><td align=center>64</td><td align=center>217</td><td align=center>10</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.52%</td><td align=center>86.23%</td><td align=center>86.46%</td><td align=center>82.05%</td><td align=center>85.10%</td><td align=center>83.33%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.42</td><td align=center>5.62</td><td align=center>9.50</td><td align=center>-1.12</td><td align=center>0.95</td><td align=center>-0.40</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.79%</td><td align=center>13.11%</td><td align=center>10.67%</td><td align=center>14.70%</td><td align=center>5.75%</td><td align=center>5.95%</td></tr></table>

mathare

19th January 2008, 19:14

Time to tick a couple of more things off the Action Plan for 2008.

This morning I signed up to Stan James' casino and played out the bonus there. I'm going to save that story for another time though. It's all a little bit complicated as it currently stands...

I also purchased The Staking Machine software, as I said I would. I want to optimise my staking for the systems and lays but I figured I'd start with the A+ bets just to get used to the software. And it takes some getting used to as the user interface is dreadful and the software doesn't contain several options I would like, such as:

o stats (bank min/max, min/max stake, ROI) for chosen staking plan
o scales on the mini-graphs
o ability to randomise data
o ability to compare staking plan with and without ratcheting side by side
etc.

I am paying only scant attention to the complicated staking plans because at this stage it is not my intention to make things any more difficult than they need be. I currently stake at 3% of the bank adjusted daily and it seems that the profits and ROI can be given a sweet little boost with a very quick and simple change - add in ratcheting on my stakes. And that's it. I have done some independent testing of TSM's figures in Excel and ratcheting results in a profit of 129% of the starting bank over the 650 recorded bets as opposed to a 53% profit without ratcheting the stakes. That's worth knowing. And those figures are calculated over 1000 randomisations of the data so they are not one-off flukes.

I am currently waiting for my TSM forum membership to be activated but once that is done I will be straight on there making my suggestions for improving a decent bit of software already. But I can see so much more potential in it...

mathare

20th January 2008, 13:49

Let's come back to that Stan James casino bonus shall we and try and work out what happened.

First off it's important to note that the bonus for this casino is unusual for the mainstream casino operators as it's not a non-sticky bonus. A non-sticky bonus is yours to do with as you like when you've earned it. Meet the wagering requirements and you can withdraw the bonus if you want. That's standard for the casinos from the main bookmakers. But Stan James' bonus is what's termed semi-sticky which means it remains in your account until you lose it, and you can only play it when you have no cash funds in your account. That second part is very important.

Most of the popular games are excluded from your wagering when working off a bonus because these games allow the casino gamer to get the bonus at minimal risk to their own funds. The casinos aren't stupid. But a lot of the time one of baccarat, blackjack or video poker will count towards the WR and in this case it was video poker. Excellent. I hadn't played that for a while so it'd make a nice change from blackjack. So yesterday I ground out the WR (£1000) over just under 3 hours of 4-line Jacks or Better at 5p a coin and 5 coins per hand (£1 total bet per deal). In doing so I lost £60.25, which is greater than I had 'budgeted' for but not to worry as the real fun was just about to start. Now the bonus was unlocked the plan was to get aggressive at the blackjack table and to make a few quid quickly.

I was a little annoyed that I couldn't separate my sports funds from my casino funds with Stan James. They have no concept of separate wallets for each as Ladbrokes, Paddy Power etc do. This meant I needed to get rid of the remaining cash in my account so I could play solely with the bonus so after putting on my remaining footy and horse bets that needed to be with Stan James I pulled the rest of my cash out. Now I just had this semi-sticky £100 in the casino. So I hit the blackjack tables betting £10 a hand. And it was a mixed start. I lost a couple, won a couple. And then it all started to go wrong. After I won a hand there would be "technical difficulties" with the software and I would have to reload the game. And when I did that the money I had won on the previous hand had disappeared from my balance :yikes:

I was in the middle of a very cross e-mail to Stan James customer support when I checked back into my casino game window to see if it had settled down. And to my surprise it had - and my balance showed £100 not the £20 it had when I set off to rant at the operators. Interesting. It seems that what had happened each time I had had to reload was that only my semi-sticky balance was showing up and not my real cash balance. But that issue had fixed itself and my £100 was made up of a semi-sticky £20 and a withdrawable £80. Hmm, I'll have that!

So my video poker had cost me £60.25 but I had made back nearly £20 on top of that through the blackjack and that £80 was mine to do with as I please. It shows up in the casino and in the sportsbook. The semi-sticky £20 only shows in the casino but in order to be able to use that again I would need to pull my £80 out to leave just the semi-sticky bonus. I could then go aggressive again betting say £5 a hand and try and squeeze a bit more out of this £20 but remember anytime I lose any of the bonus it is gone for good so were I to lose the first hand I would be down to £15 and so on. And of course my own funds are gambled first, before the bonus funds.

However, I think withdrawing that £80 now and playing with the £20 will raise suspicions at SJ casino HQ after I did the same thing yesterday, only with the full bonus amount. So I'll leave it a while. I also hope to be able to build that £20 semi-sticky bonus up a little through the weekly free chips competitions in the Stan James newsletter. It's usually a spot the ball type competition with £10 in free chips to all winners and six options to choose from giving it an expected value of £1.67 in free chips each week. But this week there are only five options giving it an EV of £2. It may not be huge but it all adds up and it's probably worth £80-£100 over the course of a year. And if that is semi-sticky it can turn into a lot more!

The optimal way to play those semi-sticky bonus, from a mathematical standpoint, is to throw the whole bonus amount on one hand and look to double it up. The withdraw the winnings and repeat. But that's a lot of effort and can easily result in getting zero return if you lose the first hand. That's not so bad when you have lots of these bonuses in various casinos that you're exploiting as you will make a killing on some and lose on others but it will all come out as a profit in the end. With this one I am taking a more cautious, but still aggressive, approach to getting value out of it. I have made a small profit and put myself in with a chance of making more (from the remaining semi-sticky funds and further bonuses) so I have achieved all I set out to achieve really.

I also ground out the Coral monthly bonus this morning. That's £25 per month for playing £625 and you can do it on blackjack. It took me about an hour and a half - which is about normal for Coral and about half an hour longer than other casinos due to the software. But I took that bonus on top of a profit of £21 from the cards themselves so that was a nice way to set myself up for the rest of the day.

mathare

24th January 2008, 23:27

I've been too busy the last couple of days to sort out the next batch of stats that were due on Monday/Tuesday. I have those processing in the background as I type. And type I need to as I have quite a lot to get off my chest.

I have hit a truly terrible streak of luck these past few days. I have missed a few selections on the System Banker due to one thing and another. That in itself is no cause for concern - most of the time. Except this time almost every selection I have missed has hacked up and every one I have backed has lost. So the stakes have been increasing and increasing. I started with a £200 bank back in August '07 and that was up around £390 before this recent streak. My starting stake was 65p but today I placed bets of over £60, £70 and even £90 for this system. I generally don't mind a few losers as it gets the stakes up and keeps things interesting but the streak I have caught has been a killer - in the true sense of the word as the software has spat it's dummy out and told me I need to add more to my bank. Yep, I watched the losing run figure creep ever higher and today it hit that magic figure of 16 and that has seen the bank crippled, although not quite bust despite what the software thinks has happened. My bank now stands at £66.55 having dropped by over £290 today! And not only has this wiped out my profit from the System Banker it has wiped out all my profit for January and put me firmly in the red for the month. OUCH!

Now don't get me wrong - I'm not saying the System Banker doesn't work. It does and I have seen it with my own two eyes (and my own money). I have been unlucky and that's all it is. There were winners today but I missed them due to various work issues. Had I caught those I wouldn't be sat here with a bank in pieces; I would be sat here with a wry smile thinking that the losing run got hairy but the system came good in the end as I knew it would. But I didn't catch them so there is no such smile but nor are there any tears or anything like that. Instead there is a sense of puzzlement as the future for me is not clear.

I like to control the staking of the systems I am following. That way I have complete responsibility for when stakes increase/decrease, when I apply bank barriers etc. The System Banker software applies its own staking plan and while it has made good profits in only a few months it has also shown me how scary loss chasing can be. I am not in full control of this staking. I don't decide when to change the stakes or when to call on the safety offered by a bank barrier. Which means I don't know what I should do now as I don't have all the facts. I am in a situation that is not entirely of my making if you like, and I don't know the best way out. I see my options as:
(i) Add more money to the bank (or reset the bank figure) and continue the system.
(ii) Start again from scratch with a completely new bank and a new history file in the software
(iii) Ditch System Banker and never go near it again.

Option (i) means I am on the same streak as I am currently and my next stake is going to be large again. I ended the day with over £60 on a 9/2 shot. If the first selection I am able to back tomorrow is odds-on then my stake will be huge. If it is anything less than 11/2 or so I will be dumping my whole remaining bank on it and we know how bad it is to put all your bank on one bet. Anything I add to the bank could last no more than 2 or 3 bets regardless of how much I add.

Option (ii) means I sacrifice the funds I have already lost and start again. If the next horse wins then I will have staked about 40p on it and will maybe make a profit of a quid or so. I am rebuilding a bank from the very beginning again when I could have a bank that is double the size of this new one because I have clawed back all my losses.

Option (iii) means I am a chicken and a coward and am cutting off my nose to spite my face. I know this system works and to give in to a freak run of bad luck would be stupid.

So it's a choice between (i) and (ii). Which pretty much means I need to think about whether or not I think the next horse will win. Suppose it's a 2/1 shot - I need to put on over £170 to win back my losses. Now suppose it gets turned over in the same way the last 16 I have backed have. My losses now run close to £500 (they are already nearly £330 on this losing streak). A selection at evens needs another £500 dumping on it just to put me back where I was a few days ago. I think it is obvious that further losers on this streak spell very bad news. And chasing losses in this manner would be foolish.

That means I just go with option (ii) and start again - right? I don't know. Honestly, I really don't know. A large part of me is saying gamble and go for one or two more in this run. The system hasn't changed, it isn't broken and it will hit you with a winner soon enough and then you're back on track. And a not insignificant part of me is reciting golden rules of bankroll management and lessons from gambling 101.

So what am I going to do? Probably sleep on it and see how it feels in the morning. See what the cold light of day offers up and also see how it mulls over in my head once some of the emotional fire has died down.

Bet-IE dutching had it's first losing race of the year this week too. It's not been a great few days for me...

mathare

24th January 2008, 23:28

Oh yeah, and here's those stats I mentioned...

BB stats for 21/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>652</td><td align=center>244</td><td align=center>88</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>72</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.88%</td><td align=center>67.21%</td><td align=center>81.82%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>1.71</td><td align=center>57.12</td><td align=center>5.61</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.14%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>111</td><td align=center>496</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>179</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>29.73%</td><td align=center>36.09%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>1.49</td><td align=center>104.98</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>5.92%</td><td align=center>9.70%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>15</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>137</td><td align=center>906</td><td align=center>787</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>168</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>44</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>63</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>57.14%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>32.12%</td><td align=center>35.98%</td><td align=center>37.48%</td><td align=center>36.36%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>-2.43</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-1.00</td><td align=center>84.56</td><td align=center>12.45</td><td align=center>-0.90</td><td align=center>-6.31</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>4.32%</td><td align=center>29.49%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>1.21%</td><td align=center>0.36%</td><td align=center>0.09%</td><td align=center>-4.95%</td><td align=center>-0.03%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>305</td><td align=center>1315</td><td align=center>482</td><td align=center>79</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>26</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>249</td><td align=center>1134</td><td align=center>417</td><td align=center>65</td><td align=center>217</td><td align=center>22</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.64%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>86.51%</td><td align=center>82.28%</td><td align=center>84.77%</td><td align=center>84.62%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.23</td><td align=center>5.54</td><td align=center>9.69</td><td align=center>-1.02</td><td align=center>0.51</td><td align=center>-0.45</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.69%</td><td align=center>13.08%</td><td align=center>10.68%</td><td align=center>14.33%</td><td align=center>5.60%</td><td align=center>-0.36%</td></tr></table>

mathare

25th January 2008, 22:20

I have a few things to tell you about this evening, namely
the Betfair workshop I attended
System Banker staking
miscellaneous other random stuff
I may not get them all in just yet as my tea ought to be ready reasonably soon but let's see how far we get shall we?

We'll start with the Betfair workshop as that happened way back on Monday evening and it's now Friday evening. I meant to tell you about that before now but I kept forgetting.

I consider myself quite an advanced exchange user but no means an expert. I know Betfair well enough to quickly and easily navigate round it. I understand what the screen is telling me, what the various graphs and figures mean etc. I know how to back and lay and also how to trade, dutch etc. That said I don't use the exchange website very often - partly because I shifted a lot of my backing and laying to Betdaq for commission reasons and partly because I use API tools for trading and dutching that mean I rarely have to actually log on direct to the Betfair website. Knowing what I know and having the experience of the site that I have put me ahead of almost everyone else in the room - which was nice :)

Anyway, let me just set the scene for you a bit better. The event was held in one of the training room/classrooms in the Betfair offices in Hammersmith - and quite swanky offices they are too. Let's just say I have seen where a lot of the commission goes! There were probably a dozen or so of us on the course with a range of interests from football trading, several in-running bettors, a couple of casual punters and a lass who'd joined Betfair a few weeks back and still had no idea what it was all about! There was a big bucket of beer and soft drinks on ice at the back of the room plus sandwiches, crisps, nuts - that sort of thing. We were sat in pairs with a laptop between us set up to run Betfair logged in to a demo account but they were using real money (£50 per account).

We started with the basics of decimal odds, backing and laying. Who does what; which button to click; how much money each party in the bet can win and lose etc. We discussed market trends focusing on the match odds and under/over 2.5 goals markets from the Liverpool-Aston Villa match playing out that evening. We talked about how the markets would change during a game and then got let loose on the accounts. We could use up to half our bank to trade on the match and try to make a profit.

We'd been shown how to manually quickly green up - something that I found interesting as I like to know how to do things from first principles in case the software I use to do these things isn't available for whatever reason. For those of you who don't know how to do this let's work an example...

Suppose you have backed a runner at evens (2.0) for £20. the payout (including your stake) from this bet would be £40 if the runner wins. Now suppose the price contracts to 1.81 - how much do you lay to equalise your profit on both runners?

I used to do this by clicking to lay the same runner and knowing my stake needed to be greater than £20 (else I'd just cancel out the back stake leaving me a free bet rather than an equal profit) I would try say £22 - without submitting the bet - and see what that did to my position in the market by displaying my P&L including the 'what if' figure. I then tweak the stake as necessary.

But there is a simpler way of doing this. Set the lay up with the relevant odds, 1.81 in this case, and click the Payout text link at the top right of the lay bet box. In the ensuing dialog box enter the payout from your back bet (£40 here) and click OK. This sets your lay stake to equalise the profit on the runners. It just so happens that it is £22.09 in this case so you make £2.09 regardless of who wins. Easy eh? And that works in any market - as long as you're not displaying your P&L figures net of commission as that will screw things up a bit.

Anyway, back to trading on the football. I was sat with a lady whose primary gamble was poker and she didn't really know much about trading. So I showed here a few trades on the under/overs and we set up a position whereby we'd win around 50p regardless of the number of goals in the game (which I was watching on the big screen at the front of the room at the same time). But we also discussed poker and Las Vegas a lot so even though it was supposed to be a competition to see who could make the most on the match we had done a couple of trades and given up.

After the trading challenge was over we continued to explore Betfair and looked at some of the Betfair Labs stuff, which was interesting, although I had seen a lot of it before. I have to admit that a neural network Premiership football prediction tool (Victor the Predictor) in there looks worthy of further investigation. And a guy I was talking to said he was quite impressed by Soccer Mystic from the people behind Bet Angel. Soccer Mystic is something I have been trying to find time to trial after finding out about it a week or two back.

We finished the evening with a look at Betfair SP and also by playing bookmaker and laying all three runners in the next goal market for the football. The key there is to start with the outsider and work in towards the favourite. Again, it was interesting to see this from first principles rather than being done in software such as Bet Trader Pro which is how I would do it (were I ever to think of doing it).

At the end of it all we got Betfair for Dummies and I had had a few beers on Betfair and picked up a few tips. I'd networked as much as it was worth it without picking up any staggering connections or links I must admit. And then I managed to secure a lift part of the way home with the guy running the course if I helped him clear the laptops etc away, which I did. I also got a couple of Betfair freebies (a hat and a jacket) out of it too. So all in all worth going although I didn't learn a huge amount.

And I was right - I wouldn't get all this in before my tea. In fact I had to stop about two-thirds of the way through the above and go eat it. But that's all out the way now and I can update this gamblog all I like. That said, I think that's enough for one post so let's close this one off and come back again shortly with the System Banker staking stuff.

mathare

25th January 2008, 22:35

Before I get into the System Banker stuff it has just occurred to me that I missed a few bits from the Betfair workshop. :splapme

Are you one of those people who uses the Betfair website and hammers the refresh button on the market? If so, you should look at the Gruss software website as that offers an add-in/toolbar for Internet Explorer that allows you to set the refresh rate for a Betfair market. Could be handy. I won't post a link though, mainly because I use API software that gives me great refresh rates so I don't care too much about the website refresh rate.

The other thing I forgot to mention is that the Betfair Solutions tab includes a lot of (all?) the historical data from Betfair markets. This needs to loaded into Access or something as it is too big for Excel to cope with but it can be used for good data mining if you want to know how many horses go less than 1.10 at Southwell and lose or whatever. Getting my hands on this data and doing something with it has been added to my mental long-term 'to do' list although in fairness it ought to be bumped on to my very long term list as I have no idea when I'd even get round to thinking about what to do with that volume of data when I have so much other stuff on my plate at the minute.

scaaty

25th January 2008, 22:48

But there is a simpler way of doing this. Set the lay up with the relevant odds, 1.81 in this case, and click the Payout text link at the top right of the lay bet box. In the ensuing dialog box enter the payout from your back bet (£40 here) and click OK. This sets your lay stake to equalise the profit on the runners. It just so happens that it is £22.09 in this case so you make £2.09 regardless of who wins. Easy eh? And that works in any market - as long as you're not displaying your P&L figures net of commission as that will screw things up a bit.

That's a really useful bit of info, thanks ! :thumbs

mathare

25th January 2008, 22:52

That's a really useful bit of info, thanks ! :thumbsNo worries. I was doing it on a market as I was typing that up this evening just to remind myself how to do it and how simple it was. I was using the same prices as in my example but without submitting the bets, just using the 'what if' figures. Definitely a trick worth knowing I think.

mathare

25th January 2008, 23:40

Right, System Banker staking then.

First off I want to say that I have used TSM here and I am not going into detail about the hows and whys of what I have done using that software. Nor am I going to discuss any of the staking plans in any detail. If you want details of any of the staking plans or the software itself I'm sure you can find out what you need on the web somewhere.

So the big question I had was what to do with the System Banker. I had narrowed it down to several options, which look something like:
(i) Carry on using the software with the same data files and boost the bank to try and recover from the losing streak
(ii) Start again with a brand new history file in the software and a new bank
(iii) Start following the selections outside the staking plan imposed by the software

Quite frankly option (i) is gambling of the highest order and is more than just a little scary as it is likely to involve bets of over £100 and perhaps several such bets of that magnitude will be required before I recover the losses and set the inevitable bank high. I have the money in the bank (real, not betting bank) but I'm not sure I am cut out for that sort of risk so this option is unlikely.

Option (ii) is quite attractive. I liked using the software and liked it chasing my losses in a way. I loved the fact that each winner meant a new bank high, even if it was only a few pence above the previous peak. It really felt like I was getting somewhere. I also know that it is purely and completely misfortune on my part that has resulted in me being in the situation I am now so I have absolutely no qualms about restarting the software despite this 'failure'.

But it was option (iii) that was the big unknown for me and the one I wanted to look at most. So I copied all the System Banker bets out of my spreadsheet, reformatted it slightly and threw it as TSM. What I found was most enlightening...

First off it told me a few things I already knew. My LLR was 16 (oh yes, I really knew that one!), my LWR was 7 (knew that also) and I was running at an SR just under 36% (yep, my spreadsheet told me that too). No news so far. I ran a 3% of bank staking plan across the data as that seems to be the done thing to do on these selections. And using my prices, which have shown an overlay/overbet of around 10% compared to SP, I have a losing system with the final/current bank standing at roughly £55. Now, I know that even using the System Banker software I have a losing system - my bank has gone from £200 at the start to £66.55 at this point - so at this stage of the staking review I wasn't too concerned. I tried switching ratcheting on - BAD. The bank busts about 80% of the way through. Oops. OK, ratcheting back off and tinker with the percentages a little to see what happens - pretty much what you'd expect really, a profit/safety trade-off.

I played with other staking plans viewing the results graphically and also looking at the actual figures at key points along the way. I played with various staking plan settings myself and also tried the automatic optimisation of the plans. Nothing was showing a profit really. The Parlay plan could be made to show a 7.5% ROI without busting the bank but I really don't think that is a good plan to rely on. The Pro plan had a positive ROI but busts the bank about halfway through the selections so that's not exactly suitable.

I then figured I was being unfair with the staking comparisons against the System Banker software and decided to cut out completely the last losing run of 16, leaving all the other data unchanged. The thinking here is that at this point I was at the last bank high (£393.65) so I could compare the other staking plans to that figure and see if they could come close. Hmmm. Percentage staking has a -4.00% ROI. There are a few plans that show a profit though (Parlay, Pro, Secure, Fixed and Bookies Bank). Of these only Pro and Bookies Bank exceed the profits shown by the System Banker software (when the default staking plan settings are applied) but let's optimise all the plans and see what happens...Now a few more plans show a profit but still only the crazy D'Alembert, Pro, Labouchere and Bookies Bank plans show profits that exceed that offered by the System Banker software. I then went in and capped my stakes in TSM to £100 to see what effect that had. Thankfully it didn't have much effect as I had optimised with £100 as my max stake anyway.

The next task was to look at the confidence tests for these plans. D'Alembert was showing better than expected results which basically meant the profit was larger than expected and were I continue along those lines I could reasonably expect things to slow down, or perhaps plummet. Everything else was within the bounds of the expected results. Something I should have thought of earlier but had forgotten about till this point was to check whether any of the staking plans I had shortlisted actually bust my bank before the end point. Yep, Pro goes pop on bet 261 (out of 489), Labouchere busts on 17 and the Bookies Bank goes one bet later. That's them ruled out then. Which I think leaves me with the D'Alembert plan.

The D'Alembert plan is not at all one of my favourites but it shows significant profits in this case, £1339.39 in fact with a ROI of 5.26%. Worringly the bank's low point is 3% of the peak and the longest winning run (13) costs 38.49% of the bank. I need to compare that ROI to that of the System Banker software though, and calculating that over the same data shows it to be 21.28%. Hmmm, not really a close thing is it? Do I want over 20% return with the System Banker plan or a quarter of that with a crazy staking plan?

And so round about now my mind was made up. Following the System Banker selections outside the software was not really a great option. Percentage staking wasn't working based on my data and the D'Alembert plan had huge stakes (the average was over £40 compared to £1.86 for the System Banker software) and similar sized risks. So option (ii) has won out and I start the System Banker from scratch again, at least in terms of the history file used by the software. I will keep the existing data in my spreadsheet and note that I have just reset the bank. Not quite sure how I get my own spreadsheet to handle this but I'll work something out.

So there you have it. I like to think of this as a fairly well thought out approach taken in the cold light of day rather than an emotional reaction to busting the bank. I certainly feel happy with the decision I have made.

mathare

26th January 2008, 12:18

Just been working through some of my stats again and crunching more numbers. Well, letting Excel do the donkey work but the end result is the same. It seems that Thursday was my fourth worst day of betting ever in terms of profit/loss in cash terms. It doesn't register in my top ten losing days when measured in BB though.

What's strangest of all though is that Thursday didn't feel that bad in mental and emotional terms. I have had days where I am getting caned on every bet I place across all systems and banks are dropping across the board and days like that feel much, much worse than Thursday did. I was concerned about the size of the stakes on Thursday but at the end of the day I got 7 losers on the System Banker and that in itself isn't indicative of one of my worst ever days gambling. Because the losses were confined to one system the overall effect on me was reduced. We've all had days were nothing goes our way and we know how that can get you down. This wasn't one of those days. I had bets coming in on other systems, lays doing well etc. It was just System Banker leaking cash.

Funny how you can view your fourth worst day as being not that bad really isn't it?

mathare

26th January 2008, 16:23

Last summer I switched over to Betdaq to take advantage of their offer on commission rates. Basically they were trying to poach Betfair customers by offering to guarantee better commission rates for them at Betdaq. The fact that they started this offer around the time that Betfair changed their commission rate structure shafting a few people along the way was surely coincidental. Anyway, I switched camps and in doing so traded in my 4.90% Betfair commission rate for 3.75% at Betdaq, guaranteed till the end of the year. I did manage to get it down further, to 3.50% for a decent chunk of that period too. But as 2008 started my guaranee expired and my commission rate jumped to 4.25%. Since then it has crept up another step to 4.50% as my turnover is much lower than it was last summer/autumn. I am also closing in on the next reduction point which will see me go to a rate of 4.75% with Betdaq but should be a few weeks or more off that yet, thankfully.

This all set me thinking though - which exchange offers the best commission rates for someone like me? My spreadsheet shows that for one reason and another I have struggled to profit on Betfair. A lot of the systems I have ditched were on Betfair so that account has seen more than its fair share of losses. While my Betdaq account has seen healthy growth and shows a very nice profit. On the face of it then it seems like I should be using Betdaq regardless of what this commission comparison shows as I have a good record with Betdaq. But let's just check the commission facts anyway shall we?

Betfair award commission points at the rate of 1 point every 10p of commission (or implied commission) paid. Their first (highest) level of commission is a 0% discount on the market base rate (MBR) which I'm going to call 5% as I want to deal with horse racing markets here. This level applies until you have 1000 commission points when your discount rate is 2% giving you a commission of 4.90%. In order to get this drop in commission you need to have got 1000 points which as they are awarded at a rate of 1 per 10p of commission means you have to have paid £100 in commission (or implied commission). This commission would have been at 5% of your profit/losses which means you must have won/lost £2000 to this point. Your next drop in commission comes at 2500 points when your rate drops to 4.80%. So that's another 1500 points required so a further £150 of commission to be paid. This time your rate was 4.90% when you paid this commission so you need to have won or lost a futher £3061.22. That's a total win/loss of £5061.22 in order to get your commission down to 4.80%. We can apply the same maths to each of the other commission rates available at Betfair and work out the total profit/loss required to reach that commission rate, and in fact I have done just that. The following table shows the minimum and maximum number of points for each level, the corresponding commission rate and the total profit/loss required to reach that level.
<table><tr><td>Min</td><td>Max</td><td>Rate</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td>999</td><td>5.00%</td><td>£0.00</td></tr><tr><td>1000</td><td>2499</td><td>4.90%</td><td>£2,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>2500</td><td>3999</td><td>4.80%</td><td>£5,061.22</td></tr><tr><td>4000</td><td>5499</td><td>4.70%</td><td>£8,186.22</td></tr><tr><td>5500</td><td>6999</td><td>4.60%</td><td>£11,377.71</td></tr><tr><td>7000</td><td>8999</td><td>4.50%</td><td>£14,638.58</td></tr><tr><td>9000</td><td>10999</td><td>4.40%</td><td>£19,083.03</td></tr><tr><td>11000</td><td>12999</td><td>4.30%</td><td>£23,628.48</td></tr><tr><td>13000</td><td>14999</td><td>4.20%</td><td>£28,279.65</td></tr><tr><td>15000</td><td>16999</td><td>4.10%</td><td>£33,041.55</td></tr><tr><td>17000</td><td>18999</td><td>4.00%</td><td>£37,919.60</td></tr><tr><td>19000</td><td>20999</td><td>3.90%</td><td>£42,919.60</td></tr><tr><td>21000</td><td>22999</td><td>3.80%</td><td>£48,047.80</td></tr><tr><td>23000</td><td>25999</td><td>3.70%</td><td>£53,310.96</td></tr><tr><td>26000</td><td>28999</td><td>3.60%</td><td>£61,419.07</td></tr><tr><td>29000</td><td>31999</td><td>3.50%</td><td>£69,752.40</td></tr><tr><td>32000</td><td>35999</td><td>3.40%</td><td>£78,323.83</td></tr><tr><td>36000</td><td>39999</td><td>3.30%</td><td>£90,088.54</td></tr><tr><td>40000</td><td>43999</td><td>3.20%</td><td>£102,209.75</td></tr><tr><td>44000</td><td>48999</td><td>3.10%</td><td>£114,709.75</td></tr><tr><td>49000</td><td>54999</td><td>3.00%</td><td>£130,838.78</td></tr><tr><td>55000</td><td>60999</td><td>2.90%</td><td>£150,838.78</td></tr><tr><td>61000</td><td>66999</td><td>2.80%</td><td>£171,528.44</td></tr><tr><td>67000</td><td>72999</td><td>2.70%</td><td>£192,957.01</td></tr><tr><td>73000</td><td>79999</td><td>2.60%</td><td>£215,179.23</td></tr><tr><td>80000</td><td>87999</td><td>2.50%</td><td>£242,102.31</td></tr><tr><td>88000</td><td>95999</td><td>2.40%</td><td>£274,102.31</td></tr><tr><td>96000</td><td>107999</td><td>2.30%</td><td>£307,435.64</td></tr><tr><td>108000</td><td>125999</td><td>2.20%</td><td>£359,609.55</td></tr><tr><td>126000</td><td>149999</td><td>2.10%</td><td>£441,427.74</td></tr><tr><td>150000</td><td></td><td>2.00%</td><td>£555,713.45</td></tr></table>

Betdaq award 1 commission point for each £25 won or lost on a market. Their highest level of commission is 5% which applies until you have accumulated 50 commission points, which a quick bit of maths shows happens when you win/lose £1250. At this point your commission drops to 4.75%. You stay at that rate until you have 200 points, i.e. a further 150 points or another £3750 of wins/losses for a total of £5000. Because the rate at which points are awarded is constant and independent of the commission rate the maths for Betdaq is much simpler. To get the total profit/loss required for each level we just need to multiply the number of points required to reach that level by £25. The table below shows the number of points required for each level and the total profit/loss to reach that rate.<table><tr><td>Min</td><td>Max</td><td>Rate</td><td>Total</td></tr><tr><td>0</td><td>49</td><td>5.00%</td><td>£0.00</td></tr><tr><td>50</td><td>199</td><td>4.75%</td><td>£1,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>200</td><td>374</td><td>4.50%</td><td>£5,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>375</td><td>574</td><td>4.25%</td><td>£9,375.00</td></tr><tr><td>575</td><td>849</td><td>4.00%</td><td>£14,375.00</td></tr><tr><td>850</td><td>1199</td><td>3.75%</td><td>£21,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>1200</td><td>1699</td><td>3.50%</td><td>£30,000.00</td></tr><tr><td>1700</td><td>2499</td><td>3.25%</td><td>£42,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>2500</td><td>3499</td><td>3.00%</td><td>£62,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>3500</td><td>5249</td><td>2.75%</td><td>£87,500.00</td></tr><tr><td>5250</td><td>7349</td><td>2.50%</td><td>£131,250.00</td></tr><tr><td>7350</td><td>10749</td><td>2.25%</td><td>£183,750.00</td></tr><tr><td>10750</td><td></td><td>2.00%</td><td>£268,750.00</td></tr></table>

The granularity of the Betfair commission rate is finer. That is there are more steps between 5% and 2% so you rate decreases more gentler than it does with Betdaq. That means we can't directly compare commission rates for the two exchanges at every point, but we can compare them at 4.50%, 4%, 3.50% etc. We can also compare how much it takes to get off the first level and get some sort of reward for our business.

As you can see from the tables above our commission rate at Befair drops when we have put £2000 of business their way but it takes only £1250 for Betdaq to reduce our rates. And when Betdaq do reduce them, they reduce them more than Betfair do. And it's the same story of Betdaq being more rewarding at each comparison point all the way to the end where £268,750 is needed to get 2% commission from Betdaq whereas £555.713.45 is needed for the same Betfair rate.

Of course this all assumes that our rate can never decrease, which is simply not true. Both Betdaq and Betfair take 15% of our points back off us each week. If you stake the same amount each week then your commission level will stabilise at a set point. And how many of us stake exactly the same each week? But does that matter? Not really. The important thing here is that the fact that both firms have the same weekly deduction.

Suppose you staked £5000 exactly each and every week for a year - which firm give you the best commmission? At the end of your first week you have staked £5000 but your exchange have taken back 15% of your points meaning your equivalent stake at that point is £4250. Betfair would have you on 4.90% commission at that point with Betdaq putting you on 4.75%. Already Betdaq are offering you a better deal. After 26 weeks, at the halfway point, your stake after weekly deductions of 15% is £27,919.15. This is not quite sufficient for the 4.20% rate at Betfair so you'd be on 4.30% with them but on 3.75% with Betdaq. And at the end of the year when your staking figure has settled down to £28327.28 then Betfair are charging you 4.20% (just) and you're on 3.75% with Betdaq still.

Five grand a week is a lot though so suppose you only staked £500 a week, what then? You'd be on 4.75% with Betdaq and 4.90% with Betfair. Betdaq always seems to win out in this comparison.

What of liquidity? It is recognised that Betdaq has a lower liquidity than Betfair so are you sacrificing commission for a better liquidity and better prices? Betdaq's liquidity in the pre-race markets is about half to two-thirds that of Betfair for UK racing. Away from that, and in-running, the markets aren't so competitive but if you're using Betdaq for horse racing then liquidity shouldn't really be an issue. And my figures have shown my overlays haven't increased by switching from Betfair to Betdaq so I have no qualms about using Betdaq.

So there you have it - if you want a better commission rate then switch to Betdaq, whether or not they are offering to guarantee your rate.

imranali

26th January 2008, 18:17

superb read, very enlightening! am considering the switch now, but two hurdles remain... the site for betdaq seems a tad slow, and of now i am not too aware my favorite bots click with betdaq seamlessly. Am using oddzbreaker, which i vote as the best (among ones which i could afford) of course i would love to trial bet angel pro. Bet trader pro is buggy and SLOW.

thx mathare for the read.

mathare

27th January 2008, 17:31

Serious question - am I cursed? It certainly feels like it.

Many gamblers talk of bad losing streaks but of those most are just tricks of the mind rather than backed up with hard facts. Poker players talk of running bad, when they can't win a pot regardless of the cards they hold, the bets they make or the players they face. I am currently experiencing a stinker of a losing streak and have the evidence to back up this claim.

Let me just say that overall I am running pretty well. My SR (53.83%) is about right for the balance of bets I have and I have sneaked a small profit so far this month but it's the System Banker that is biting again. Remember that losing run of 16 I had that 'bust' the bank? Well I skipped Friday, reset everything on Saturday and started again. I backed 7 horses under this system yesterday and they all lost. I missed one that I can recall, Morbick in the 9.20 at Wolverhampton as I was sat watching a film by then having switched the PC off for the day. Of course that one went and won didn't it? So I carried on this afternoon on a losing streak of 7 which I promptly extended to 10 with 3 more losers today. Unbelievable!

Luck is supposed to even out in the long run meaning that for every winning selection I miss there should be a losing selection (give or take, with a few tweaks for the SR not being exactly 50%). So why am I catching all the losers and missing every winner at the minute? My losing streak is currently 26, split across two separate banks. 26! And there have been winners since that run started but I haven't caught a single one of them. If anyone has a better bad luck story I'd like to hear it...

mathare

29th January 2008, 21:14

Good news - I'm not cursed! :woohoo:

I was honestly starting to wonder if I was genuinely cursed after French Saluaie was turned over as a heavy odd-on favourite at Ludlow yesterday. Fortunately Wynberg romped home a little later at Kempton (after winning a few days earlier for me on other systems) and the spell was broken. 27 losers in a row before the winner came and boy was I glad to see that one win! Since then I have had three more winners and only four more losers for a much nicer balance. Still, we all need a bit of excitement in our lives now and then don't we? :)

What else have I got to tell you? I have spent quite a bit of time recently updating and improving my betting records spreadsheet. I decided the time had come to keep a proper track of my football betting so I have reorganised all of that and updated all the macros that used it. I have also decided to start recording the sport for each of the bets I tag as 'miscellaneous'. It has covered bets on darts, tennis, cricket, formula 1 and novelty events such as Pop Idol in the past. None of those deserve their own sheet in the records or tracking separately so I just bundled it all up under miscellaneous a while back. But I thought I should actually break it down a little in case I wanted to track these things separately in the future. I also made it easier to track my commission rates for certain bets that didn't previously have this information recorded. It just makes things a little more accurate and easier to maintain in the future. I am pretty sure I am getting closer to having my spreadsheet the way I want it now but I'm not sure I will ever stop tinkering with it.

This has just reminded me that I ought to make some time in my tinkering for the spreadsheet Monty sent me about a month ago to look at. Oops.

My gambling portfolio for this year seems to be going along alright, which is always pleasing. So far this month has seen 14 banks reach a new high and 11 reach a record low. Some banks have reach record highs and lows in the same month, but that's expected when you start a new bank. For example both Double Top and Running for Profit had slighty shaky starts to the year and dipped a little in the opening week of the month but those two banks are now very nicely in profit, by 34% and 46% respectively. My Bet-IE dutching bank is also on the rise, which I am delighted about. Adding some code in to my spreadsheet to open Bet-IE when the spreadsheet opens has made it much easier for me to build Bet-IE into my routine more and my bank for that reached a new high today. My NHPM bank is also climbing nicely so it's not just the backs that are doing the business.

I'll tell you what, rather than me just spouting words at you and as it is that time let me give you a stats update so you can see for yourself the figures....

BB stats for 28/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>655</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>91</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>75</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.86%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>82.42%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.21</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>6.76</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.05%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>116</td><td align=center>15</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>35</td><td align=center>2</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.17%</td><td align=center>13.33%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>0.78</td><td align=center>-8.53</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.64%</td><td align=center>5.65%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>139</td><td align=center>919</td><td align=center>789</td><td align=center>30</td><td align=center>171</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>45</td><td align=center>330</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>12</td><td align=center>65</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td><td align=center>30.83%</td><td align=center>32.37%</td><td align=center>35.91%</td><td align=center>37.39%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>38.01%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.08</td><td align=center>-3.43</td><td align=center>3.21</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>91.25</td><td align=center>10.45</td><td align=center>1.07</td><td align=center>2.19</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>27.05%</td><td align=center>-0.31%</td><td align=center>1.34%</td><td align=center>0.46%</td><td align=center>0.08%</td><td align=center>-0.30%</td><td align=center>-0.46%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>309</td><td align=center>1317</td><td align=center>490</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>257</td><td align=center>30</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>252</td><td align=center>1135</td><td align=center>425</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>218</td><td align=center>26</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.55%</td><td align=center>86.18%</td><td align=center>86.73%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td><td align=center>84.82%</td><td align=center>86.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.54</td><td align=center>4.88</td><td align=center>10.46</td><td align=center>-0.93</td><td align=center>0.61</td><td align=center>-0.07</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.56%</td><td align=center>13.00%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>12.47%</td><td align=center>5.63%</td><td align=center>0.83%</td></tr></table>

AngieS

30th January 2008, 01:24

Hi Matt,

Went to betfair school on the tues, looked for your name when I had to sign in but it was not there, then again neither was mine, had to wait untill my friend went upstairs in those nice glass lifts and get one of the guys out to let me in.

Like you lots I already knew but as you have pointed out there were a few bits I didn't.

We had to trade on the Arsenal match and they scored very soon after the match had started most of the people there lost there £50 but at the end we managed a whole £2 something profit.

So on the whole I think it was worth it had freebie drinks, eats and free bets.

Not on the forum very much these days as I am working as a stewardess in my local social club which involves shift work and I can't follow the racing as much as I would like to. Oh well needs must

Regards,

Angie.

mathare

2nd February 2008, 11:42

A rather disappointing end to the first month of a new year for me. I'd already seen the first System Banker bank go down in flames and had recovered to be showing a small profit for the month overall before I had a bad run on the Bet-IE dutching. Wednesday had started well with 3 winning dutches early on putting me nearly a full BB up. The I hit a loser, followed by another on the evening racing and yet another on the next evening's racing to give me 3 losers in a row and set a new LLR for my dutching. Obviously that has resulted in my stakes being trimmed a little and it pushed me back into the red for January.

The start of February was a different story though with a nice 9/1 winner (Ask Jenny) on the Flat Monthly system and the NHPM lays reaching another staking increase trigger. So it is with renewed enthusiasm that I sit here ready for whatever Saturday's horses may throw my way.

mathare

2nd February 2008, 12:09

Figured I may as well round January off with a quick summary of highs, lows and a new set of stats.

The following banks all reached a new record high point in January:
System Banker (second time round), Good'un, ABS, Running for Profit, Double Top, NH Media F/c, NH Monthly, Jumping for Profit, NHPM lays, Easy Money lays, Trades, Bet-IE dutching, Football, System Banker (first time round).

The following banks all reached a new record low in January:
System Banker (second time round), Good'un, Flat Monthly, Running for Profit, Double Top, NH Monthly, Jumping for Profit, Easy Money lays, Video Poker, Spreads, System Banker (first time round).

As you can see quite a few banks appear in both lists. That's because many of my banks are currently immature having just started this year and there is always a bit of fluctuation around the starting value before things settle down and the bank starts to climb properly.

Finally I wanted to post my stats up to the end of January, just for completeness really. I plan to do this at the end of every month as well as posting the stats on a weekly basis. I should really do some more analysis of the numbers rather then just dumping them in here but I know how my betting is going anyway so if anyone else is interested the stats are here for them to compare to last week or whenever and you can do your own analysis of them.
BB stats for 31/01/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>658</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>99</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>80</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.69%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.81%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.79</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>5.06</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.15%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>117</td><td align=center>39</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.77%</td><td align=center>28.21%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.03</td><td align=center>-4.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.68%</td><td align=center>5.52%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>123</td><td align=center>139</td><td align=center>928</td><td align=center>790</td><td align=center>42</td><td align=center>175</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>4</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>45</td><td align=center>333</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>67</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>33.33%</td><td align=center>30.08%</td><td align=center>32.37%</td><td align=center>35.88%</td><td align=center>37.34%</td><td align=center>38.10%</td><td align=center>38.29%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.08</td><td align=center>-5.43</td><td align=center>0.21</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>92.49</td><td align=center>9.45</td><td align=center>-2.05</td><td align=center>2.47</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>13.51%</td><td align=center>0.06%</td><td align=center>1.34%</td><td align=center>0.52%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td><td align=center>3.37%</td><td align=center>-0.73%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>310</td><td align=center>1319</td><td align=center>495</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>259</td><td align=center>34</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>253</td><td align=center>1137</td><td align=center>430</td><td align=center>71</td><td align=center>219</td><td align=center>29</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.61%</td><td align=center>86.20%</td><td align=center>86.87%</td><td align=center>82.56%</td><td align=center>84.56%</td><td align=center>85.29%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.44</td><td align=center>5.07</td><td align=center>10.93</td><td align=center>-0.93</td><td align=center>0.31</td><td align=center>-0.27</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.68%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.56%</td><td align=center>12.47%</td><td align=center>5.72%</td><td align=center>2.02%</td></tr></table>

mathare

5th February 2008, 21:42

Quite a few things to tell you tonight. There's no easy way of saying the first of them though so I am just going to blurt it out and be done with it. I have bust another System Banker bank. There, I've said it.

Yes, you did read that right. For the second time in as many weeks I have bust the bank for the System Banker. Last time this happened I restarted it but this time I am through with it. The recent results for short-priced horses has really been my undoing and this time a run of 10 losers was enough to kill it off.

I was coming into today off the back of a losing run of 7. The run had started with a 34p bet on a 4/1 shot. This was followed by £1.23 on a 4/7 loser. Another 43p went on a 9/2 horse that also lost. Next came £2.87 on a 5/6 chance that again didn't win. A longer one now with 67p on a 6/1 shot. Lost. Two consecutive selections at 15/8 next in the run with £2.44 and £6.92 on them respectively. And that takes us to this afternoon where we lumped £12.73 on a horse that went off at 11/10, and lost. Another odds-on shot now, this one at 8/13 with £40.27 riding on it. Nope, that one didn't win either. Never mind as we have £65.06 on a 13/8 chance now so surely that one will win. No. Next up was another short-priced runner that wanted over £200 on it and as the bank was down to a little over £70 at that point I gave up. It lost, incidentally.

And that's were I stand now. Nearly two-thirds of the starting bank has been blown in 10 days with 59% of the starting bank being lost this afternoon in three races. I have decided I can take this no longer. I enjoyed the highs but the lows are killing me. Keith operates a three strike policy but I have decided that for me two strikes is plenty with this one. It has eaten two banks and cost me quite a bit of cash this year so I am through with it.

What else?

Ditching that got me thinking about other systems/methods in my betting portfolio for this year and whether I have got my balance right. Looking at my stats for the A+ bets I am no longer that impressed by them. I have tried running the data through TSM and that has been able to improve the profits somewhat but the staking plan included elements of loss chasing and I am not sure I fancy that. So I am considering ditching the A+ bets too. I asked myself: are they contributing to the bottom line as I would expect/hope? And the answer is no. It's one of those banks that never seems to get anywhere; never getting very high nor getting too low. So why bother it when the money could be better invested elsewhere? That's my current thinking. The A+ bets are on a grey-list if you like. I may dump them, I may not. The final decision has yet to be made but they are certainly a candidate for being dropped. It's not like I haven't given them a chance - they have been around for 660 bets.

Other than that I think I am satisfied. I am a little annoyed that I am really struggling for a profit this year but given I have lost over £400 on the System Bankers I would have netted over £350 without those so that's a good sign that everything else is looking alright so I can hopefully expect profits to flow over the rest of the year.

One thing I am thinking about is my balance of backs and lays. I currently have 17 backing systems and only 7 lays (I am excluding dutching etc from this count). I perhaps have room for one or two more lay systems in there I feel so I am going to investigating a few of those to see what I can find that I like and that works.

mathare

5th February 2008, 21:56

Another thing I wanted to do tonight was to give you the next installment of the stats and briefly discuss how they have changed since the start of the year. We're 5 weeks in now so roughly 10% of the year has gone already so why not look back and see what is going right and what is going wrong.

BB stats for 04/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>660</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>102</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>82</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.58%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.39%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.79</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>4.80</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>58</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>122</td><td align=center>45</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>38</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.10%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>31.15%</td><td align=center>24.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>6.33</td><td align=center>-10.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>9.41%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.93%</td><td align=center>7.20%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>136</td><td align=center>142</td><td align=center>935</td><td align=center>790</td><td align=center>53</td><td align=center>177</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>46</td><td align=center>336</td><td align=center>295</td><td align=center>21</td><td align=center>68</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>50.00%</td><td align=center>31.82%</td><td align=center>30.15%</td><td align=center>32.39%</td><td align=center>35.94%</td><td align=center>37.34%</td><td align=center>39.62%</td><td align=center>38.42%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.17</td><td align=center>-6.67</td><td align=center>9.32</td><td align=center>-1.09</td><td align=center>95.51</td><td align=center>9.45</td><td align=center>-0.59</td><td align=center>2.47</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.05%</td><td align=center>12.58%</td><td align=center>1.52%</td><td align=center>1.37%</td><td align=center>0.54%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td><td align=center>2.53%</td><td align=center>-0.63%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>310</td><td align=center>1323</td><td align=center>505</td><td align=center>88</td><td align=center>260</td><td align=center>38</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>253</td><td align=center>1141</td><td align=center>440</td><td align=center>73</td><td align=center>220</td><td align=center>33</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.61%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>87.13%</td><td align=center>82.95%</td><td align=center>84.62%</td><td align=center>86.84%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.44</td><td align=center>5.46</td><td align=center>11.89</td><td align=center>-0.74</td><td align=center>0.40</td><td align=center>0.11</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.68%</td><td align=center>13.00%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>12.54%</td><td align=center>5.83%</td><td align=center>1.46%</td></tr></table>

I'm not going to go through everything in detail but I wanted to pick out a number of key figures.

My A+ SR has hardly changed (down from 37.64%) this year but I have lost 4.18BB already. The overlay is about the same too but not terribly impressive due to a long period backing to SP (prior to 2007).

I have yet to hit a winner on the AP McCoy system but I have seen my overlay increase by 33% (from under 21%) overall. So I am getting good prices but they just aren't coming in. And obviously he is injured at the minute so...

There haven't been any selections this year yet in the Nine or Less, Stoute 80, Lambourn Yuck, Johnston Fav Tracks or Michael Stoute systems so those stats are obviously unchanged.

The LTO3 system SR is very slightly down since the start of the year but nothing significant given the number of bets in this system to date (122). I have made a profit of just under 1BB on this system although due to stake variations with the bank size I have made a slight loss overall this year in cash terms. But this system is continuing nicely enough for me and the overlay is settling out now.

I am not going to discuss the System Banker stats. Those shown here are for the second attempt and do not include todays disaster. Those stats will not appear in future stats updates as I am discontinuing the system, as discussed above.

Most of the thrid table doesn't warrant discussion due to the immaturity of the banks, which were started at the beginning of this year. Double Top is going well though, eh?

Finally we come to the lays. Not too much to say here other than the fact I am reining in my overlays a little as things progress, which can only be a good thing. Not really sure why my CD lays overlay is as small as it is though. It's calculated over 260 bets and is still under 6%. I don't do anything different to any other lay system yet those with a significant number of bets all seem to have double that overlay. Oh well.

mathare

5th February 2008, 22:04

The (an) other thing I wanted to say this evening was that I am going to try and get over my System Banker disappointment by dedicating more of my time and effort to Auto-Sys development, and perhaps other projects after that. But any other projects will be after Auto-Sys is complete and available for 3rd-party systems.

I have been a bit slack on the Auto-Sys front recently. I'm sure when it is released very few, if any, of you will appreciate and understand the ball-ache I have gone through getting some of it to work as desired but I want it to be perfect (or at least as perfect as I can make it) before I let anyone else loose on it. I also have a very fixed view on how it should work and I need to spend time rewriting a lot of the code I had already written to get it to work as I wish. I know it will be good when it is ready, I just don't know yet when it will be ready. I have overcome a good number of obstacles in the past couple of weeks but it's still baby steps at this stage really.

One of my main problems has been time, which willpower and willing very much up there. I spend my working days picking holes in someone else's software and pointing out ways in whch it doesn't work and why. So to come home and face programming some other software which is still quite raw and buggy and experience the difficulties in realising my vision is not always my idea of fun. So I kinda have to force myself to do it now and then. Don't get me wrong, it's not a chore for me, I do enjoy doing it but I am often reaching the stage where I will crack one problem and I will give up for the evening as I'd rather end that evening's development on a high rather than find another problem that will churn around in my brain overnight and wake me up in the middle of the night when my brain finds a solution. Think of it as stop at a winner if you need a gambling analogy.

But from now on I have resolved to spend more time on Auto-Sys development in the evenings and at weekends. After all, I need to do something to pay the bills now that I have bust a couple of betting banks. :)

davidsteel

5th February 2008, 22:46

mathare

5th February 2008, 22:48

Interesting post Mat, have you stopped doing the banker system or are you starting with a new bank..i stopped doing them mainly becuase i can't do it everyday and that made me feel uneasy about missing periods when it was winning..I have stopped, for good, permanently. No new banks, nothing. I have broken two banks on it in under two weeks now so I have decided it's really now for me. It did very well towards the end of last year but the shaky start to this year for the short-priced runners has really hit hard so I am done with it now.

scaaty

6th February 2008, 00:27

And that takes us to this afternoon where we lumped £12.73 on a horse that went off at 11/10, and lost. Another odds-on shot now, this one at 8/13 with £40.27 riding on it. Nope, that one didn't win either. Never mind as we have £65.06 on a 13/8 chance now so surely that one will win. No. Next up was another short-priced runner that wanted over £200 on it and as the bank was down to a little over £70 at that point I gave up. It lost, incidentally.

I had to go out this afternoon so I didn't do the system banker today, but didn't the third selecton, Hopkins, win ? Or did you miss that one ? Seems like you've been very very unlucky with this - just goes to show how it can be different for everybody. I missed a few winners during the good run but recently I've only missed losers so I haven't had too much stress. Also what I posted earlier about making sure I never had a losing run longer than the system does seem to work quite well, so far anyway. After reading about your first bank bust I did take Keith's advice and withdrew my £250 starting bank,and I've started again now using just the profit (£210) plus the ciggie money I'd added, so even if it all goes pear shaped I can't lose.

Apart from the System Banker, I'm up £336 in total since the beginning of January on the systems I'm doing - that's RFP,JFP,NH Monthly,Flat Monthly, Double Top, LTO3 and First Timer - and I'm very happy with that. Not sure yet what I'm going to do with the £250 I've taken out of the System Banker, another of the flat systems I think, either the Johnston Tracks or the Michael Stoute ..... maybe the Johnston one, I like the buzz of a high priced winner!

Great blog, always a good read ! :thumbs

mathare

6th February 2008, 00:32

Great blog, always a good read ! :thumbsThanks Scaaty, appreciate it :hearty

I had to go out this afternoon so I didn't do the system banker today, but didn't the third selecton, Hopkins, win ? Or did you miss that one ?Yes, and yes. It won (at 2/5) and I missed it. But I would have had to have a huge chunk on it, perhaps bigger than my bank at that point (I haven't calculated/checked), because of the price. And with the rate at which these short-priced nags have been getting turned over I would have been quite scared about doing it.

scaaty

6th February 2008, 00:39

And with the rate at which these short-priced nags have been getting turned over I would have been quite scared about doing it.

Yes I can understand that - biggest stake I've had so far has been around a quarter of my bank and I found that pretty scary, not sure how I'd cope with a bigger one ! :yikes:

mathare

12th February 2008, 22:17

Time for another one of these updates I guess.

The first thing to cover is how surprised I am by my football betting so far. A strike rate in excess of 60% and a profit of around 12pts is it? (I can't be fussed to check at the mo) I have always trusted in stats but football is a funny old game, as the old cliche goes, and I have been pleasantly surprised how predictable the Premiership has been and how often the stats have come good. And my bank balance is quite pleased about it too as I have been putting my own hard-earned on the selections. I don't have a staking plan in place really, just a fixed amount per point and I will probably continue with that till the end of the season and then use the summer to revisit things.

What else while the weekly stats calculations are continuing in the background?

My bets on the horses are going quite well. Not my bets so much as the systems I follow, but you knew what I meant. I'm no horse tipster, that's for sure. Today was a bit of a bummer for the systems but overall things are looking quite good. It was a nice clean sheet on the lays too. The NHPM lays have been incredible recently. I have been making a very nice profit on them so far this year and long may it continue.

Can't think of too much else I wanted to share with you. I haven't played poker for ages. Not really had much time. What else is there? Oh yeah... :splapme

Auto-Sys!! Development continues at a decent (but not staggering) pace but then I only get a short time each evening to do anything on it. The last week or so I have been making some significant changes to the structure under the hood (and yes, perhaps I should have just designed it better in the first place) and am pleased with the way that is all going. I am certainly seeing progress towards what I always knew Auto-Sys could be. In fact I am hoping to get an alpha release out in the next couple of weeks (hopefully before then) and will be looking to enlist some volunteers. On the basis of the feedback from that I hope to go beta within the following couple of weeks and then on to the first release. I expect the core workbook will then go through several versions as I made planned improvements but I am keen to get a working version available as soon as possible. I'll be posting further details of the alpha/beta testing and how you can get involved on the forum soon. And with that I had better go and get on with some of the coding.

I'll leave you with the weekly stats...
BB stats for 11/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>664</td><td align=center>247</td><td align=center>104</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>84</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.65%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>80.77%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-0.56</td><td align=center>58.07</td><td align=center>5.30</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>59</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>126</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>25</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>39</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.37%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.95%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.50</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>6.66</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.39%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.35%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>11</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>149</td><td align=center>147</td><td align=center>947</td><td align=center>797</td><td align=center>72</td><td align=center>184</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>8</td><td align=center>43</td><td align=center>48</td><td align=center>341</td><td align=center>299</td><td align=center>27</td><td align=center>73</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>45.45%</td><td align=center>30.77%</td><td align=center>28.86%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>36.01%</td><td align=center>37.52%</td><td align=center>37.50%</td><td align=center>39.67%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.17</td><td align=center>-8.13</td><td align=center>4.57</td><td align=center>-1.49</td><td align=center>97.95</td><td align=center>13.48</td><td align=center>-7.56</td><td align=center>7.03</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>6.96%</td><td align=center>11.45%</td><td align=center>2.17%</td><td align=center>1.75%</td><td align=center>0.78%</td><td align=center>0.13%</td><td align=center>3.08%</td><td align=center>-0.61%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>314</td><td align=center>1327</td><td align=center>515</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>265</td><td align=center>46</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>1144</td><td align=center>449</td><td align=center>80</td><td align=center>223</td><td align=center>41</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.53%</td><td align=center>86.21%</td><td align=center>87.18%</td><td align=center>84.21%</td><td align=center>84.15%</td><td align=center>89.13%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.78</td><td align=center>5.33</td><td align=center>12.29</td><td align=center>-0.07</td><td align=center>-0.11</td><td align=center>0.87</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.66%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>5.79%</td><td align=center>-1.58%</td></tr></table>

mathare

18th February 2008, 14:22

Auto-Sys development continues at a pleasing pace. I had some trouble hooking up various bits of it over the weekend but I think the bulk of the problems are behind me now.

I have decided to implement a phased delivery, which will run something along the lines of:
Phase 1 - beta release made available for testing purposes only. This version will contain the bulk of the functionality but only dummy systems will be available for use with Auto-Sys
Phase 2 - the first proper release of Auto-Sys, available to whoever wants it. At this point I will have fixed all the major issues arising from the previous beta testing phase and will be taking orders for 3rd party systems to add in. At this point in time Auto-Sys won't be 100% complete and how I want it to be but it'll be close
Phase 3 - ongoing development and rework to improve core functionality

I should explain a little about the design of Auto-Sys to help put the above into context a little more for you.

Auto-Sys will come in several parts, the main of which is the Auto-Sys workbook which contains the core code. By itself this workbook will do virtually nothing, at least nothing that will be visible and obvious to the user. It requires at least add-in module to get anything out of it, and it's these add-ins that the third-party systems code is supplied in. These are the clever bits really. Think of the Auto-Sys workbook as a skeleton, if you like. The add-in modules then contain tendons, ligaments, muscles and flesh to attach to these skeleton and give the user something useful. Or something like that anyway.

In Phase 2 of the delivery I will release the main workbook and can start to code up your systems. I need to get to this stage as soon as possible really for several reasons (not least the fact that I want to start seeing a return on this effort) so the code will not be perfect at that point. During Phase 3 I plan to make a few performance and maintainability upgrades that will allow me to speed up Auto-Sys and also make future expansion much easier. The impact on your add-in modules should be minimal (hopefully zero!) at this point.

So when will Auto-Sys be available for beta testing? I don't know, is the honest answer. Soon - I can't really be any more accurate than that. But the code is maturing each and every day and new features are being added (or at least hooks for new features are anyway). I am currently refactoring a lot of the code that obtains the racecard data and searches for the system qualifiers but that shouldn't take too much longer to sort out. This whole exercise has made me realise what a mess the original Auto-Sys code was/is but it still runs quick enough. Hopefully this refactoring will result in a slicker, smoother Auto-Sys. I also need to add in better error logging and things like this. The original Auto-Sys has been for my own personal use only so includes none of that sort of stuff.

It's definitely getting there :thumbs

And what's more I have plans to take it even further in the future - possibly rewriting the whole thing from scratch to take it out of Excel :yikes:

Watch this space for more details...

Jonny2621

18th February 2008, 15:11

Thanks for the update Mat, I'm sure all the hard work will be worth it. :thumbs

tophatter

18th February 2008, 22:43

pleasing figures there mat, not many red and those red figures are small when compared with some of the black figures.

mathare

23rd February 2008, 10:45

BB stats for 18/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>673</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>256</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>38.04%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>8.65</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.36%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>132</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>40</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.62%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.89</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.54</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.36%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.20%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>11</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>164</td><td align=center>149</td><td align=center>966</td><td align=center>799</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>193</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>5</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>44</td><td align=center>48</td><td align=center>347</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>38</td><td align=center>79</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>45.45%</td><td align=center>32.14%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>32.21%</td><td align=center>35.92%</td><td align=center>37.55%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td><td align=center>40.93%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.17</td><td align=center>-7.13</td><td align=center>-6.93</td><td align=center>-3.49</td><td align=center>93.96</td><td align=center>15.21</td><td align=center>-9.33</td><td align=center>11.76</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>6.96%</td><td align=center>16.20%</td><td align=center>2.67%</td><td align=center>1.81%</td><td align=center>1.03%</td><td align=center>0.17%</td><td align=center>3.77%</td><td align=center>-0.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>321</td><td align=center>1334</td><td align=center>524</td><td align=center>96</td><td align=center>273</td><td align=center>55</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>262</td><td align=center>1151</td><td align=center>458</td><td align=center>81</td><td align=center>230</td><td align=center>50</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.62%</td><td align=center>86.28%</td><td align=center>87.40%</td><td align=center>84.38%</td><td align=center>84.25%</td><td align=center>90.91%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.57</td><td align=center>6.01</td><td align=center>13.15</td><td align=center>0.03</td><td align=center>-0.14</td><td align=center>1.73</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.97%</td><td align=center>10.41%</td><td align=center>10.65%</td><td align=center>5.49%</td><td align=center>1.02%</td></tr></table>

mathare

23rd February 2008, 11:03

That's a bit of housekeeping done (I think the forum move to the new server has screwed up my HTML tables, most of which I have been able to recreate simply and repasted) and this week's stats have been posted. But I didn't want to go through the numbers too much this week. Things are ticking along nicely enough. One system I will mention is NHPM (NH Profit Machine lays) which is rocketing along and has seen me able to trim my staking percentage on that one from 1% fixed stake down to 0.95% fixed stake. Not a big move but one in the right direction and as the bank increases I will be making similar percentage stake cuts to build further safety in to the bank.

I wanted to do a bit more general blogging in this post. Midweek saw my first attempt at Champions League betting. I know a couple of football punters who swear by this competition and rely on it for a decent chunk of their profits every season but I confess to being less impressed. Yes, there are a lot of markets on each game which makes you think it should be possible to find value etc but the games just don't excite me. I find the Premiership a better spectacle and a much more predictable betting medium. My stats-based approach is going great guns in the Premiership but struggling in the Champions League, probably due to the relative number of games in each competition. But I'll be betting on the next set of Champions League games all the same - I'm not that disheartened.

Today is an awkward day for me. I am being picked up around 1pm to go to a mate's housewarming down in Kent. Don't get me wrong, I want to go but I have a dilemma: to bet or not to bet? Do I put all my bets on before I go out or just have a day off? I am presently torn on this one. Putting all the bets on before I go out is similar to what I do during the week (when I put all my bets on at lunchtime and just leave it to see what happens) but at weekends I like to keep my eye on things. I don't do anything staggeringly different at weekends as I still put the bets on in big chunks. I think the timing has a lot to do with it. Were I being picked up at 2pm I would have all my bets on and wouldn't bat an eyelid about it. But 1pm... I dunno. I am also missing out on the opportunity to monitor my football bets and to perhaps tinker with the rugby. Why do people do 'normal' things on such excellent betting days?

Finally, another Auto-Sys update. I redesigned chunks of it again last night (let's face it - I'm likely to do this quite a lot until I tie my hands by releasing it to someone) and it is getting better. The version I am developing now has around 80% of the functionality of the version I use to provide the W2W eBook qualifiers on a daily basis. The plan is to get the remaining functionality into the new version allowing me to compare the results of the two versions side by side to confirm that the new version behaves the same as the current version. Once that is done and I am satisfied it works as expected I need to develop a few test systems and then I can put the beta version out. There are still a few issues that myself and my business partner in this need to thrash out before we can fully officially release though. I am pleased with progress to date though.

mathare

2nd March 2008, 12:24

It's been a while since I have been able to update this due to one thing and another. Things have been mega-hectic at work and probably will be for a while to come yet, but I have also been laid low with a really nasty cold that knocked me for six. As such I have got behind on a few things, such as maintaining this blog and developing the new version of Auto-Sys I'm afraid. But I am just about over the cold now so I am hoping to get back on track soon enough.

The first thing I need (want) to do is give the weekly stats update so...
BB stats for 25/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>683</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>259</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.92%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>4.90</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.56%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>61</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>136</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>26</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.62%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.15%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.89</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>2.29</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.36%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.49%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>14</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>178</td><td align=center>151</td><td align=center>977</td><td align=center>801</td><td align=center>114</td><td align=center>198</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>6</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>52</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>350</td><td align=center>300</td><td align=center>47</td><td align=center>80</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>42.86%</td><td align=center>31.03%</td><td align=center>29.21%</td><td align=center>33.11%</td><td align=center>35.82%</td><td align=center>37.45%</td><td align=center>41.23%</td><td align=center>40.40%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.67</td><td align=center>-8.13</td><td align=center>9.94</td><td align=center>-1.86</td><td align=center>94.08</td><td align=center>13.21</td><td align=center>-8.59</td><td align=center>10.01</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.17%</td><td align=center>13.80%</td><td align=center>2.04%</td><td align=center>1.70%</td><td align=center>1.29%</td><td align=center>0.21%</td><td align=center>3.96%</td><td align=center>0.12%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>325</td><td align=center>1338</td><td align=center>534</td><td align=center>99</td><td align=center>275</td><td align=center>64</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>266</td><td align=center>1154</td><td align=center>468</td><td align=center>83</td><td align=center>231</td><td align=center>59</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.85%</td><td align=center>86.25%</td><td align=center>87.64%</td><td align=center>83.84%</td><td align=center>84.00%</td><td align=center>92.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.19</td><td align=center>5.54</td><td align=center>14.27</td><td align=center>-0.36</td><td align=center>-0.80</td><td align=center>2.59</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.73%</td><td align=center>12.94%</td><td align=center>10.50%</td><td align=center>11.18%</td><td align=center>5.70%</td><td align=center>0.10%</td></tr></table>
I don't plan to discuss these stats in detail as I was going to post the month-end stats for February shortly and perhaps go through those a bit. Suffice it to say for now that I am happy with the way things are progressing this year.

mathare

2nd March 2008, 12:40

Now the stats to the end of February:
BB stats for 29/02/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>688</td><td align=center>248</td><td align=center>107</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>260</td><td align=center>165</td><td align=center>85</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.79%</td><td align=center>66.53%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.65</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.53%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td><td align=center width="100">System Banker</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>63</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>137</td><td align=center>48</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>27</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>41</td><td align=center>11</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>42.86%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>29.93%</td><td align=center>22.92%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-4.39</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>1.29</td><td align=center>-13.20</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.67%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.28%</td><td align=center>7.22%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>185</td><td align=center>153</td><td align=center>985</td><td align=center>802</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>205</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>54</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>352</td><td align=center>301</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>82</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>29.19%</td><td align=center>33.33%</td><td align=center>35.74%</td><td align=center>37.53%</td><td align=center>41.67%</td><td align=center>40.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-7.63</td><td align=center>10.35</td><td align=center>-1.95</td><td align=center>91.08</td><td align=center>14.31</td><td align=center>-9.81</td><td align=center>6.89</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>19.44%</td><td align=center>2.37%</td><td align=center>1.67%</td><td align=center>1.35%</td><td align=center>0.22%</td><td align=center>4.00%</td><td align=center>0.01%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>1343</td><td align=center>541</td><td align=center>101</td><td align=center>276</td><td align=center>70</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>267</td><td align=center>1158</td><td align=center>474</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>232</td><td align=center>65</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.90%</td><td align=center>86.22%</td><td align=center>87.62%</td><td align=center>84.16%</td><td align=center>84.06%</td><td align=center>92.86%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.09</td><td align=center>5.72</td><td align=center>14.41</td><td align=center>-0.17</td><td align=center>-0.71</td><td align=center>3.35</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.97%</td><td align=center>10.45%</td><td align=center>11.06%</td><td align=center>5.73%</td><td align=center>1.30%</td></tr></table>

What are the highlights this month? The one that stands out most to me is the NHPM lays as they are on fire! I said a couple of weeks ago that they were doing well and that I had started to reduce the stakes on them to build on more security for the system bank and things have just gone from good to even better. The strike rate is over 90% this year and more than half my total profit on the system has come in the first two months of this year. OK, those figures are slightly misleading as I am talking cash terms and as long as banks continue to grow and stakes rise then more recent bets will have a bigger influence on the overall profit. But even so, I can't believe how well it is going. At the start of the year my base bet (BB) for this system was £40 (£4 fixed stake with an 11.0 cutoff). It is now £65 and that's after trimming the percentage stake slightly. The bank barrier is now protecting more than the original bank and it's only set at 30% (as it is for all my lay systems).

The Easy Money laying system is also doing well now after a slightly shaky start. It took a little while to steady out and get going but now that it has it is running along nicely and producing steady profits, which is pleasing. The backs were a bit of a mixed bag this month as we shall see in a second.

Let's have a look at the banks that set a new record low this month:
System Banker (2nd attempt), Good'un, ABS, Flat Monthly, NH Monthly

And those that recorded a new high point this month:
Flat Monthly, Double Top, Jumping for Profit, Easy Money Lays, NHPM

It's no real surprise to see Flat Monthly in both lists as the system bank is still immature and settling down. It currently stands just over it's starting point though so I am happy enough with that one. I think I covered the System Banker problems sufficiently at the start of the month and now the month is over I will be dropping that one from the stats. Double Top and Jumping for Profit have both slipped back a bit from their peaks in the middle of the month but they are still doing well enough to keep me smiling.

I haven't had time or the energy for much trading this month. And dutching has been quiet for the same time reasoning really. My football betting seems to be going alright though, and that's very pleasing.

That'll do for now I think. I don't need to bore you any further do I? The figures are all there for you to do your own comparisons and analysis should you so desire. The bottom line is I am making money and that's always good!

mathare

2nd March 2008, 12:47

Yesterday (Saturday 1st March) was a bit of a weird one. I was over at a poker game in Crayford the previous evening and didn't get back home till about midday (thanks Keith for covering Auto-Sys for me). I was supposed to be going out to see my mum and grandparents about 1 or 2 o'clock too so I didn't really have a lot of time to do much. But I managed to find just enough time to get all my bets on, including sorting out my football bets, and I'm glad I did as it was a pretty decent day. A couple of very nice winners on the backs and a great day on the lays saw me net a nice profit on the day. A few more corners in the Man City v Wigan game wouldn't have gone amiss but the ref got it right with the bookings anyway.

Today I will be out during the racing again as the missus wants to go looking at washer-dryers in Currys and Comet. OK, I admit it - it was actually partly (mostly?) my idea but I am doing it for a peaceful life and hoping that it buys me the evening off to work on stuff on my PC. After all, those of you with the Jumping for Profit eBook will soon be beating me up if I don't get things sorted out for Auto-Sys so that needs to take priority over new Auto-Sys development.

I'll update this (and more popular areas of the forum) with more details on Auto-Sys as and when they are available...

tophatter

2nd March 2008, 16:41

Nice work Matt,

The flat monthly and The NHPM lays are the two banks that are really flying for me too. My gambling has settled down now into a constant consisitent rythm and thats how I gamble best.

mathare

12th March 2008, 20:54

It's been a LONG time since I updated this and that means I have broken the golden rule from my Action Plan of updating it at least once a week. Sorry folks, but I have my reasons. I just can't remember them all right now. I have had so much on, both at work and outside of the office that updating this gamblog has been very much on the back burner. But I am so far behind that I feel I need to make an effort to get back on track.

So let's start with a set of numbers - the system stats that I should have posted last week (from the week ending 3rd March):
BB stats for 03/03/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td><td align=center width="100">Football</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>697</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>257</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>263</td><td align=center>167</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>129</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.73%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td><td align=center>50.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>2.58</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td><td align=center>2.65</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.64%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>78</td><td align=center>64</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>138</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>42</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>23.08%</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.43%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>11.52</td><td align=center>-3.66</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>3.39</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>33.14%</td><td align=center>8.76%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.12%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>33</td><td align=center>187</td><td align=center>154</td><td align=center>993</td><td align=center>804</td><td align=center>120</td><td align=center>211</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>10</td><td align=center>54</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>354</td><td align=center>302</td><td align=center>50</td><td align=center>83</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>30.30%</td><td align=center>28.88%</td><td align=center>33.12%</td><td align=center>35.65%</td><td align=center>37.56%</td><td align=center>41.67%</td><td align=center>39.34%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-7.63</td><td align=center>8.35</td><td align=center>-2.95</td><td align=center>91.42</td><td align=center>13.67</td><td align=center>-9.81</td><td align=center>4.08</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>19.44%</td><td align=center>2.44%</td><td align=center>1.67%</td><td align=center>1.55%</td><td align=center>0.23%</td><td align=center>4.00%</td><td align=center>0.04%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>326</td><td align=center>1344</td><td align=center>550</td><td align=center>102</td><td align=center>279</td><td align=center>75</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>267</td><td align=center>1159</td><td align=center>483</td><td align=center>86</td><td align=center>234</td><td align=center>69</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>81.90%</td><td align=center>86.24%</td><td align=center>87.82%</td><td align=center>84.31%</td><td align=center>83.87%</td><td align=center>92.00%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.09</td><td align=center>5.82</td><td align=center>15.27</td><td align=center>-0.08</td><td align=center>-0.77</td><td align=center>3.53</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.80%</td><td align=center>12.94%</td><td align=center>10.38%</td><td align=center>10.97%</td><td align=center>5.81%</td><td align=center>2.59%</td></tr></table>

Just so as you know, I'm not going to go through these stats in any sort of detail. Perhaps I should, bring out the highlights of the betting week. But I'm just not really in a position to be able to do that. The week was a winning week overall, but not by a massive amount (twenty quid or so) and that's almost entirely thanks to the NHPM system which made great profits that week (and continues to do so actually) to offset losses on other systems. And that's about all I plan to say on things really. Other than to say that I have had two horse banks reach new highs so far this month (NHPM lays and Easy Money lays) and three hit new lows (CD Lays, Double Top, NH Monthly) with the last two triggering bank barriers.

And with that I'll leave you with the most recent stats update and come back shortly with some words of wisdom - or just some general babble depending on your point of view
BB stats for 10/03/2008
<table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">A+</td><td align=center width="100">Trades</td><td align=center width="100">Bet-IE</td><td align=center width="100">Football</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>703</td><td align=center>250</td><td align=center>107</td><td align=center>278</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>264</td><td align=center>167</td><td align=center>85</td><td align=center>138</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>37.55%</td><td align=center>66.80%</td><td align=center>79.44%</td><td align=center>49.64%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-1.17</td><td align=center>57.07</td><td align=center>3.51</td><td align=center>0.29</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>0.73%</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td><td align=center>.</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">AP McCoy</td><td align=center width="100">Nine Or Less</td><td align=center width="100">Stoute 80</td><td align=center width="100">Lambourn Yuck</td><td align=center width="100">Johnston Tracks</td><td align=center width="100">Michael Stoute</td><td align=center width="100">LTO3</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>80</td><td align=center>65</td><td align=center>36</td><td align=center>291</td><td align=center>176</td><td align=center>82</td><td align=center>140</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>18</td><td align=center>28</td><td align=center>9</td><td align=center>95</td><td align=center>29</td><td align=center>22</td><td align=center>43</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>22.50%</td><td align=center>43.08%</td><td align=center>25.00%</td><td align=center>32.65%</td><td align=center>16.48%</td><td align=center>26.83%</td><td align=center>30.71%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>9.52</td><td align=center>-4.66</td><td align=center>-4.48</td><td align=center>0.13</td><td align=center>50.02</td><td align=center>51.07</td><td align=center>5.89</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>30.76%</td><td align=center>7.68%</td><td align=center>5.93%</td><td align=center>11.02%</td><td align=center>26.02%</td><td align=center>26.73%</td><td align=center>6.36%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Goodun</td><td align=center width="100">ABS</td><td align=center width="100">Flat Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Run Profit</td><td align=center width="100">Double Top</td><td align=center width="100">NH Media</td><td align=center width="100">NH Monthly</td><td align=center width="100">Jump Profit</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>16</td><td align=center>37</td><td align=center>203</td><td align=center>155</td><td align=center>1006</td><td align=center>807</td><td align=center>127</td><td align=center>222</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>7</td><td align=center>12</td><td align=center>57</td><td align=center>51</td><td align=center>355</td><td align=center>302</td><td align=center>52</td><td align=center>87</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>43.75%</td><td align=center>32.43%</td><td align=center>28.08%</td><td align=center>32.90%</td><td align=center>35.29%</td><td align=center>37.42%</td><td align=center>40.94%</td><td align=center>39.19%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-3.76</td><td align=center>-5.69</td><td align=center>-1.48</td><td align=center>-3.95</td><td align=center>80.67</td><td align=center>10.67</td><td align=center>-11.81</td><td align=center>3.50</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>12.22%</td><td align=center>22.24%</td><td align=center>2.45%</td><td align=center>1.70%</td><td align=center>1.62%</td><td align=center>0.26%</td><td align=center>4.40%</td><td align=center>0.46%</td></tr></table><table><tr><td width="100"></td><td align=center width="100">Max</td><td align=center width="100">Lay'em</td><td align=center width="100">NHPM</td><td align=center width="100">Ladies</td><td align=center width="100">CD</td><td align=center width="100">Easy</td></tr><tr><td>Bets</td><td align=center>335</td><td align=center>1351</td><td align=center>561</td><td align=center>106</td><td align=center>286</td><td align=center>87</td></tr><tr><td>Winners</td><td align=center>276</td><td align=center>1166</td><td align=center>493</td><td align=center>89</td><td align=center>241</td><td align=center>79</td></tr><tr><td>SR</td><td align=center>82.39%</td><td align=center>86.31%</td><td align=center>87.88%</td><td align=center>83.96%</td><td align=center>84.27%</td><td align=center>90.80%</td></tr><tr><td>+/- BB</td><td align=center>-2.23</td><td align=center>6.49</td><td align=center>15.86</td><td align=center>-0.07</td><td align=center>-0.10</td><td align=center>3.90</td></tr><tr><td>Overlay</td><td align=center>11.89%</td><td align=center>13.02%</td><td align=center>10.44%</td><td align=center>11.17%</td><td align=center>6.17%</td><td align=center>2.70%</td></tr></table>

mathare

13th March 2008, 14:59

So what have I been up to recently?

Keith sent out the new rules to the Jumping For Profit eBook so I had to update Auto-Sys for those, something I did just over a week ago now and as no-one has screamed at me about the qualifiers I am going to assume I did a pretty good job. I did double check a few of the rule changes with Keith to make sure I got Auto-Sys as accurate as I could make it. Thankfully the changes were pretty straightforward which has given me confidence in the way I have developed the basics of Auto-Sys. It also means that when Keith makes changes to other eBook systems I should be able to handle those nice and easily too. I got quite a nice warm glow from how smoothly this update went really.

I got another warm glow from a quick search on my hard drive recently too. In another of my (soon to be infamous) deep thought sessions in the shower I decided to renew my interest in blackjack staking plans. I had looked into this in the past although not in that much detail. I knew I had started to knock up a spreadsheet to test various plans but couldn't recall how far I had got. I assumed I hadn't done much but I was quite wrong. OK, it doesn't include many actual staking plans but the framework is there for it to support a lot of different plans. It even seems as though I have done a bit of work on a front-end for it to. I figured I'd be starting from more or less scratch but in actual fact I have done a lot of the hard work already. Always nice to uncover odd forgotten gems like that. Not that I will be doing anything much with it for a while yet as I have other projects I need to complete before this one gets my attention. You've seen my Action Plan at the start of this gamblog but that ain't the half of it. I have a lot of plans for other things that I am not going to force myself to commit to by adding them to the action plan for 2008 but they remain part of the overall plan. And of course, me being me, I keep having ideas for new projects and also thinking of improvements to things I have already 'finished'.

Take Auto-Sys as an example of this last point. I have been working on this almost every evening and most weekends. I have poured my heart and soul into it. OK, the time invested in it isn't the issue at all and I could have reached the same point in a lot less time were that time in larger continuous blocks rather than an hour here and there as I am often reluctant to start something in an evening that I know will take several hours to complete as it won't always be easy to split the task and pick it back up again. And yeah, Auto-Sys has taken me longer than I expected and certainly longer than planned but that's the nature of software development. After all, I'm not exactly following traditional lifecycle or using a structured development environment. I certainly should be doing the latter (and I stopped in the middle of the previous sentence to investigate something down this route, which just goes to show I can't focus on one thing at once at the minute) but I'm not so I just have to deal with that. It's getting awkward though and hard to manage. I should invest the time, if not some money also, to set up a decent version control system at least. There, I've put that in my blog now so I am gonna have to see it through.

In fact I have just taken half an hour or so out of writing this to quickly investigate open source version control applications and installed one to see how it goes. I feel much better for that. Now if only I knew how it worked properly...

OK, let's be honest here - it wasn't half an hour. It was going to be just half an hour, just to get the basics sorted. But in the end I played with it for a while and in doing so opened up a right can of wormy viper's nests that mean I have a lot to do to get it set up properly but the benefits of doing so will be worth it. And that little play took me the rest of the evening which is why I am writing this bit the lunchtime after I started writing this post. Whoops. I need to stop having thoughts in the middle of tasks I am currently working on else I get distracted and start off down another route. I need blinkers on my brain.

Let's get back on track shall we. Actually, where was I and where was I heading? Oh yeah, Auto-Sys as an example of improvements to completed projects. I could just draw a line under Auto-Sys and say it is only useful for Keith's eBook systems and will always operate on a subscription basis as it does currently. But I wouldn't be satisfied with that. I know what Auto-Sys can do given the chance and I know it could be useful to so many people so I have to update it to support third-party systems. I have pretty much done all of that now - indeed the software has entered alpha testing recently despite me hitting a significant problem over the weekend that threatened to scupper the whole project but I won't (and can't) go into detail on that really. I am over that hurdle now and heading down the home straight. That said I still don't have a release date for Auto-Sys. I don't actually have an agreed list of what needs to be done before the release. I need to have lengthy discussions with my business partner really before I can even put out a beta. I had hoped to have a full release out by Easter but that's not going to happen. Maybe the beta will be out by then though - we'll see. I am both excited and frustrated though as I have done all the hard work and jumped over hurdles I wasn't expecting to encounter and feel as though I am so close to being ready. But it's right that my business partner in this is reining me in (albeit perhaps not intentionally) as there are still some important business decisions to be made and he does have a certain amount more expertise than me in these areas. The bottom line is the technical side of things is just about done and has entered a testing phase. And that's good news I feel. That said I have plans for a few new features even after it is released. I just cannot draw a line under anything and say it's done. I'd be a rubbish artist. I'd go to galleries and see my paintings on the wall and want a brush and some paints just to touch it up a bit.

I was going to issue an update on my action plan around now but there's not much new to report. I have already mentioned the blackjack staking plan analysis work and my continued development of Auto-Sys, of course. I haven't had time for any of the system staking analysis I was going to conduct either. And I haven't played online poker for a couple of months now. I still tinker in the casinos now and then though. I have regular bonuses from Littlewoods and Coral to collect but Paddy Power have been disappointing with their bonuses this year. The bonuses from the Irish fellas have either been few and far between or lousy when they do come along. Ah well. Victor Chandler have offered me a decent enough bonus worth up to £200 though so I will have a play on that one and see how it goes. It's gonna take me five grand's worth of blackjack though so it's a few evenings work.

What else have I got to tell you? Hopefully not much then I can get this posted and finally eat the sandwich I went out and bought between paragraphs. I wrote a dutching calculator spreadsheet the other day, but only because MattR made me. I'm pleased with how well it works though. I had it working for a given stake quickly enough but couldn't get my head round getting it working for a given profit target but another of those thinking sessions in the shower soon sorted that. The main problem with those shower sessions is that it means I have a lot of my good ideas just before I go to work and then I don't have time to do anything with them immediately, which is what I would like to do. Ain't life a bitch? Anyway, writing that dutching calculator made me think that I should do more with these little applications I write rather than just leaving them to fester on my hard drive. I have numerous things like that I have started (and a couple I have even finished!) that I should store somewhere properly and make available to the punting public. There you go, one more thing for the 'to do' list - create myself a website through which to release all my useful VBA applications plus other tricks and tips. One day...

I have a new hobby - and normally I wouldn' t mention hobbies in a gamblog but I feel I ought to this time because it's something that takes time away from the umpteen other things I have planned and because it's gambling-related. The missus and I have started to enter as many competitions as we can. Not the ring to win jobbies but ones on the internet and ones you can enter by sending your name and address on a postcard. I figured we should give it a go for a few months and see if we can win anything. After all, for years I have seen these competitions and thought "I can't be bothered". The more people that think like that the better my chances of winning. Someone has to win these things so I figured why not me? I could do with a few holidays, a car and some kitchen appliances. And anything we win that we don't want we'll just flog on Ebay :) I'll let you know how we get on...

Finally it's Cheltenham this week and I have to admit it has been a bit of a disappointment for me this year. Last year I was very well prepared and took time out to study all the cards etc but this year I have been way too busy at work (and with all the other stuff I have going on as mentioned above) that I have hardly had time to look at any of the cards. And with three days racing being sqeezed into two that makes things even more hectic and intense for those days so I have more or less given up on even looking at the cards. I'll watch the highlights and what have you but for this year the festival is going to pass me by almost unnoticed, which is a shame.

And now I need to eat!

mathare

16th March 2008, 11:49

I'll tell you what - I'm glad Cheltenham is over. I didn't enjoy the festival much at all this year if truth be told. I hit a couple of winners, including Denman, but I hit many more losers. I didn't get chance to focus on some of the races as I normally do nor did I get chance to watch many of them. I have recorded the highlights and watched those of day 1 and will watch the others sometime later today but I just felt that I couldn't get into it at all this year and the money I lost was just slipping through my fingers and there was little I could do about it.

March has been a pretty miserable month for me, gambling-wise. Little seems to be going to plan. I try to remain emotionally detached from my betting and mostly I manage that without any problems. But recently it has become a bit of a chore for me as I'm not getting the same enjoyment out of it and when I am having twice as many losing days as I am winning days (10 losers and 5 winners this month) it just adds to the misery. Misery may not be the right word exactly, maybe it's a bit too strong. But it just seems that my punting is becoming a bit of a bind. I have bank after bank hitting the bank barriers at the minute as some of my NH banks went into freefall. Of the backs yesterday there were 19 of which 15 were under bank barriers so I only placed 4 backing bets. The lays are doing OK but the backs are just a mess at the minute. I'm sure things will recover in time but I'm just having a miserable time of it all. It doesn't help that I have felt rough for the past few days (lack of sleep/unable to sleep, stomach ache since Friday night and just generally run down) and the weather is lousy. I don't have anything pepping me up. Auto-Sys development has stagnated (thankfully at the stage where I think it is complete enough to go out) and my mind is moving on to other things. I need to get excited about something (Auto-Sys finally being released, a new development project getting underway etc.) to break this misery cycle.

Only one meeting today so there is limited opportunity to dent my losses for the month. I took a kicking yesterday too. Towards the end of the afternoon I had enough time to pay Bet-IE some attention and that proved to be an expensive mistake with three losing dutches and two winners costing me around 2.5BB all told. And now my dutching is under a bank barrier too.

It's been a tough week really and I could do with some good news just to give me the positive outlook and confidence to really come out firing again because at the minute I am expecting every day to end with a loss. Not a big loss really, just enough to keep grinding me down bit by bit.