Superbowl Xxlii

[presto]

SUPERBOWL XXLII
New England Patriots vs New York Giants

It's the big one in Arizona this Sunday as the 'perfect' 16-0 (18-0) New England patriots go helmet to helmet with the 'wildcard' New York Giants 10-6 (13-6).
Can the patriots add the superbowl trophy and a very 'bling' ring to there so far perfect season? Or will the underdog's of New York steal some of that glory?
To answer thoes questions we will have to wait and see, however we can always speculate (not to mention the betting).

STATS


TEAM OFFENSE PER GAME AVERAGE

Total Yards
NYG 331.4
NE 411.3 *

Yards Passing
NYG 197.1
NE 295.7 *

Yards Rushing
NYG 134.3 *
NE 115.6

TEAM DEFENSE PER GAME AVERAGE

Yards Allowed
NYG 305.0
NE 288.3 *

Pass Yds Allowed
NYG 207.3
NE 190.1 *

Rush Yds Allowed
NYG 97.7*
NE 98.3

Gameday Matchup
W L PF PA DIV CON
NYG 10 6 23.3 22 3-3-0 7-5-0
NE 16 0 36.8 17 6-0-0 12-0-0

H2H Matchups (Since 2001)
New England leads 2-0
Dec 29, 2007 NE 38, @NYG 35
Oct 12, 2003 @NE 17, NYG 6

So it's pretty odvious what the stats say.
NE better offence + defence.
NE better record.
NE score more and concede less.

So there you go, theres your pick - the patriots, infact no need even to stay up late to watch the game as it's a forgone conclusion. Or is it? you don't think i would leave it there would you? NO i didn't think you would. After all we only need to point out the week 17 game:
Dec 29, 2007 NE 38, @ NYG 35
ok so the pats won, but it was hardly a convincing win, with the giants pushing them hard all game and dare i say may even have won the game. In sport theres never a certainty and 'any given Sunday' anything can happen. Besides theres always a myriad of other bets to keep you interested for the full game and as this is a special occasion i will do my best to try and offer a wide range of possible picks.

So down to the betting, there are 3 main ways in which i make picks:
METHOD - this is personal oppinion. staking reccomended from a 100 point bank.
SYSTEM - based on various factors, unafected by oppinion.
VALUE - based on computer analysis of data (and the PSP staking plan) to provide the selection that represents the most value, unafected by oppinion.
i personally use BETFAIR as my main bookie (exchange) - they consistently offer the best odd's and i cannot reccomend them highly enough.

To win the game:
method - New England patriots @ 1.23
system - New England patriots @ 1.23 (ranked A bet)
value - New York @ 5.3

I personally predict a NE victory, so does the system, the method however sees some value in New York - however it's a close call.
if you elect to bet the value then i would reccomend you to wait untill closer to kick off, as i feel that the odd's may drift higher, on the other hand if betting on NE then bet now as i predict the odd's may shorten.

handicap betting:

(value bets)
new england -18.5 vs new york + 18.5 @ 1.37
new england -12.5 vs new york + 12.5 @ 2.04
new england -6.5 vs new york + 6.5 @ 2.98

The computer picks New York to hold the value in all 3 handicap scenarios, the biggest value lies in New York + 12.5 @ 2.04. New York +18.5 @ 1.37 also hold's some decent value. New York + 6.5 @ 2.98 also dosn't look a bad bet either according to the analysis.

method betting - i also agree with the computer 'value' analysis, NY +12.5 @ 2.04 looks a very decent bet at odd's above evens, NY +18.5 @ 1.37 looks a cracking bet, a near certainty in my oppinion. NY + 6.5 looks a lot closer prospect IMO i can see the value in the odd's but wouldn't want to risk big money on it. I would bet around:

new england -18.5 vs new york + 18.5 @ 1.37 5 points
new england -12.5 vs new york + 12.5 @ 2.04 3 points
new england -6.5 vs new york + 6.5 @ 2.98 1/2 point

points total over / under

value bets

(53.5 points) over @1.89 / under @ 1.97
(43.5 points) over @ 1.31 / under @ 3.6

The computer has chosen unders in both scenarios, however there is little value to be had in either, under 53.5 @ 1.97 may be worth a small play according to the staking plan, but not enough to reccomend. under 43.5 the odd's look to be set about right according to the computer, so no bet here.

method bets
Again i agree with the computer here and cannot really see a decent bet in this market. Though a small dabble on under 53.5 could be worth it.
(53.5 points) over @1.89 / under @ 1.97 1/2 point.

half time / full time

an interesting market this where you predict the outcome of the first half and the final outcome.

new england / new england @ 1.53
new england / new york @ 23
new england / tie @ 44

tie / new england @ 22
tie / tie @ 80
tie / new york @ 36

new york / tie @ 60
new york / new england @ 8.6
new york / new york @ 12.5

method bet
i like the look of the new england / new england @ 1.53

also by 'dutching' NE/NE and tie/NE with a (£93.5 on NE/NE and £6.5 tie/NE) ratio, you will have a return of 43% (1.43) if eiher selection comes in, this is a safer option of covering the first half tie.

MVP

tom brady @ 1.74
eli manning @ 8.6

randy moss @ 14.5
laurence marony @ 16.5
wes welker @ 23
plaxico burress @ 22

method bet - brady looks a good bet at 1.74 to get the MVP and worth a 3 point bet.

[Win2Win]

Now if I'd booked my holiday 2 weeks later, you may have seen me running across the field naked at half-time :D

[vegyjones]

NIce write up Presto!

[presto]

Now if I'd booked my holiday 2 weeks later, you may have seen me running across the field naked at half-time :D

:ermmm:ermmm:ermmm

cheers vegy, was also going to do the 'player prop bets' but the market's hadn't really formed yet and didn't look like they would reveal much value.

[Win2Win]

They reckon 1 BILLION viewers :doh

So just over 1 in 6 people on the planet will be watching it! Don't think so.

[Mattw07]

Is anybody else staying up to watch this?

Not sure what bets to go for yet, only going to be fun bets for me, Giants are a bogey team for me, lost 7 out 10 bets with them this season.

[Win2Win]

Superbowl or porn?.......Hmmmm :doh

[presto]

i will be watching, glad it's an early kick off as the superbowl usually goes on till around 5/6am with all the half time rubbish.

[Mattw07]

Giants to win for me, only £10 so it may as well go on the underdogs.

hope for at least a close game.

[Win2Win]

Better get my bet on now......

[yerotsluap]

A great write up Presto.

First TD to the Patriots

Their offence just has so many different weapons that could step up and win the game for them

[yerotsluap]

Big mistake from Eli, the giants need to limit errors and be perfect on offense. Having seen the patriots under Belichek it wouldn't surprise me if the patriots quickly got a second touchdown

[Mattw07]

Giants definately in this game, would of thought there odds to be lower 5.5 now.

[presto]

hmmmm - a close, low scoring game going into the break.
the giants have made offensive mistakes however the patriots just havn't capitalised. The giants defense has been firm though, limiting new england's offense, and have been hitting brady all game which is not a common occurence.

[yerotsluap]

If theres any combination that can make the adjustments to win this game its Brady and Belicheck.

[Mattw07]

Never felt so much pressure over a £10 fun bet!

[presto]

not a great game, but tense at the end. The PSP value bets got me out of a hole, with all 6 winning :D:yikes: so a profit overall.

[Win2Win]

Better get my bet on now......

Well that was lucky forgetting the bet till late, I got £50 at 6/1 on the winners :thumbs

[vegyjones]

I wouldn't have forseen how ineffective the Patriots pass protection was going to be, for me, that was where the game was won and lost!

I also though giving Eli Manning MVP was a bit of a kop out!

[MattR]

I really enjoyed the game. It's easy to think it's not much of a game when it's like it was early but the defences were on top and it kept it tight and tense, The Giants defence has been incredible during the play offs.

What a play on that third down though when Manning was all but sacked, yet somehow got out there to launch the throw downfield that resulted in on of the best catches I've ever seen. Got to be one of the biggest plays ever, given the occasion and the game situation.

One other I remember of similar importance was also the Giants in the superbowl. I can't recall which one it was but I think it was possibly against the Buffalo Bills. They had a big third down (3rd and 19 I think) and the reciever (Ingram? could be wrong on that) caught it about 10 yds upfield and somehow made the rest of the yards, avoiding and pulling defenders with him to get the first down.

[MattR]

I also though giving Eli Manning MVP was a bit of a kop out!

Yeah, it's always the easy option to give it to the QB isn't it. I think had the Patriots won it, then Welker should have got it for 11 catches but no doubt they'd have given it to Brady.

[vegyjones]

What a play on that third down though when Manning was all but sacked, yet somehow got out there to launch the throw downfield that resulted in on of the best catches I've ever seen. Got to be one of the biggest plays ever, given the occasion and the game situation.

One thing that has always blighted the NFL for me is the amount of bad tackling that goes on! That was another example of it although there were plenty of examples yesterday. However, it was a great escape by Manning all the same.

As for the catch by Tyre, I have to agree, probably the best catch I have ever seen. The more I watched it, the more I couldn't work out how he actually held onto it. It seemed an impossibility.

Although - speaking of bad tackling, the defender had his arms in between the catchers, all he had top do was pull one of Tyree's arms away and it is incomplete. But I suppose that would have been unjust on Tyree for what was an exceptional piece of ball catching.