MattR
8th December 2009, 14:08
Firstly, thanks to Chris for the suggestion for these.
These will be half time lays of the home team from the games where my stats are suggesting a value bet on the away team to be winning at half time. To date just 30 of 106 selections have been losing at half time which suggests it should turn a profit if those figures continue (isn't if a lovely word :D )
I have back tested my selections using approximate odds for the home team based on the away odds I have logged. I've used todays games as a guide to see where the home odds tend to be when the away odds match those I have for my previous selections. I also bumped them up a tick or two. First I checked them using a fixed stake and then to a fixed liability.
I used a £2 fixed stake (plus 1% of any profit adjusted after each day) and this gave us a profit of £39.35 to date. The last two days have seen no home wins so that gave a considerable boost to the figures. The bank had reached £18 profit then back down to £9, back up to £20 then down to £12 again after a poor saturday, then sunday and monday clean sheets saw it reach £39.35.
For the fixed liability I used £4 (plus 1% of any profit adjusted daily) I got the £4 figure because the average liability usingthe £2 fixed stake method was around £4 so I thought that would give a good comparison. This back test ended with profit of £45.82. After a losing first day the bank progressed quickly to £20, dropped down to £10, climbed up to £30 then last saturday saw it drop to £19 Sunday and monday saw it rise rapidly to £45 with no winners.
So I have decided to go with the fixed liability for two reasons. Firstly it seemed steadier and made a higher profit to date. Secondly it alleviates the danger of hitting a high odds lay (there aren't many but 1 or 2 of these winning would seriously dent the fixed stake bank)
Todays Lays
Starting with a £4 liability
Frosinone 3.65
Reggina 2.92
Ipswich 2.58
Leicester 2.68
Preston 2.70
WBA 2.42
Middlesboro 2.40
Reading 2.98
Will update the odds as I have them, not all are taken yet.
These will be half time lays of the home team from the games where my stats are suggesting a value bet on the away team to be winning at half time. To date just 30 of 106 selections have been losing at half time which suggests it should turn a profit if those figures continue (isn't if a lovely word :D )
I have back tested my selections using approximate odds for the home team based on the away odds I have logged. I've used todays games as a guide to see where the home odds tend to be when the away odds match those I have for my previous selections. I also bumped them up a tick or two. First I checked them using a fixed stake and then to a fixed liability.
I used a £2 fixed stake (plus 1% of any profit adjusted after each day) and this gave us a profit of £39.35 to date. The last two days have seen no home wins so that gave a considerable boost to the figures. The bank had reached £18 profit then back down to £9, back up to £20 then down to £12 again after a poor saturday, then sunday and monday clean sheets saw it reach £39.35.
For the fixed liability I used £4 (plus 1% of any profit adjusted daily) I got the £4 figure because the average liability usingthe £2 fixed stake method was around £4 so I thought that would give a good comparison. This back test ended with profit of £45.82. After a losing first day the bank progressed quickly to £20, dropped down to £10, climbed up to £30 then last saturday saw it drop to £19 Sunday and monday saw it rise rapidly to £45 with no winners.
So I have decided to go with the fixed liability for two reasons. Firstly it seemed steadier and made a higher profit to date. Secondly it alleviates the danger of hitting a high odds lay (there aren't many but 1 or 2 of these winning would seriously dent the fixed stake bank)
Todays Lays
Starting with a £4 liability
Frosinone 3.65
Reggina 2.92
Ipswich 2.58
Leicester 2.68
Preston 2.70
WBA 2.42
Middlesboro 2.40
Reading 2.98
Will update the odds as I have them, not all are taken yet.