mathare's Rateform Portfolio System

[mathare]

The new football season is here so it's time to give one of my new portfolio systems a live trial on this forum to see how it performs. It's done well in the past but as I'm sure many of you realise, past performance is no guarantee of future success.

System Development
The portfolio systems came about as the result of a significant amount of number crunching and poring over dozens of spreadsheets worth of data from the four English League divisions (Premiership, Championship, League One and League Two) stretching back to the 1993-94 season in an attempt to identify trends that could be exploited in order to beat the bookies and generate a profit. Surprisingly, several hundred such trends were uncovered with these trends then subjected to further analysis to identify those best suited for combining with other trends to form a single system designed to take advantage of several profitable angles at once – a so-called portfolio system.

Each portfolio system has undergone optimisation to ensure that the individual trends combine in such a way that the portfolio is balanced and offers a relatively smooth accumulation of profits. This optimisation process was designed to create a portfolio system that delivered a manageable number of bets per season but also showed steady year-on-year profits. The process was extended somewhat to individual months and divisions so as to try and achieve balance there also – in short to ensure that no single month or division was dragging the whole portfolio down.

The balance of the Rateform Portfolio System is pretty good, overall. For example, there isn't too much variation in terms of number of bets per month throughout the season. There is some natural variation of course as some trends are stronger at certain times of the year but overall the balance is decent. The Championship weighs in with relatively few bets compared to the other divisions but again this is just a natural consequence of the chosen trends.

Backtesting
In order to ensure that each portfolio was profitable they have all been backtested as far as possible using odds data taken from http://www.football-data.co.uk. For bets in the 1X2 markets I have been able to test the portfolio over the past 10 seasons whereas for under/over 2.5 goals bets the backtesting has taken in the last five years.

Due to the lack of a starting price for any given bet (as one would find in sports designed for betting such as horse racing and greyhound racing) a decision must be made as to which set of odds to use during any backtesting of football systems. I opted to use the average odds recorded from BetBrain where available and to compute the average of the odds available from the major bookmakers where the BetBrain average was not available.

Analysis of the odds data from several years has shown that the average odds used are very attainable and can often be beaten by shopping around a little with the UK bookmakers. As a result I feel the profit levels shown in the backtesting of each portfolio system are realistic and don’t require one to be able to get the very best odds on every bet.

The average return on investment for the portfolios is approximately 20%.

Staking
Each individual trend has been set to use 1pt level stakes. The staking of an individual portfolio system bet depends on how many trends have selected it, as there is some overlap between some trends. Each portfolio bet has a minimum stake of 1pt, with a maximum varying slightly from portfolio to portfolio but has not exceeded 5pts to date. The average stake also varies from portfolio to portfolio but is usually somewhere around 1.2pts, so you can see the majority of the bets are at the lower end of the staking and maximum bets are relatively rare.

For the Rateform Portfolio the average stake is 1.08pts with a maximum stake to date of just 2pts. The longest losing run has been 10 bets (14pts staked) with the longest winning run extending to 8 bets (24.75pts profit). I suggest a betting bank of at least 30pts if you plan to follow this system.

Qualifiers
Selections will be posted on here in good time to get bets on before the game starts. They will usually be posted on the morning of the match or even the day before if the necessary data is available at that time. Each selection will comprise the details of the bet (which match, the predicted result, the stake) along with advised odds taken from the UK bookmakers as well as the firm(s) at which the odds can be found.

Performance
I will be maintaining a full set of statistics relating to the portfolio system's performance - number of bets, stake, strike rate, profit/loss, ROI and so on. I will be updating the forum on a regular basis with this information so you can track the progress of this system throughout the season.

The profit/loss figure I maintain will be based around average odds calculated from the bookmakers listed on Oddschecker. Better than average odds will be available with some UK firms and with many of the Asian bookies but by using the average I hope to report a realistic profit figure as not everyone will get the best odds on every bet.

I have a full breakdown of the past performance of this system going back 10 seasons, split by month, season and also by division. I have attached this as an image to this post rather than fight the forum to display a nice-looking table.

5105

The number of bets takes a significant jump between the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons because I only have odds data for under/over 2.5 goals bets for the past five seasons whereas I have 1X2 data for the past 10 seasons. The system selects bets in both the 1X2 and under/over markets so in effect the first five seasons reflect the performance of just the 1X2 bets with the five most recent seasons giving a much better idea of the performance of the system as a whole.

If you have any questions, let me know and I will do my best to answer them.

[mathare]

Rateform Portfolio - 7th August
Typical isn't it? You go to all that hard work to put the system together and backtest it and there are no qualifiers for the opening weekend! August is traditionally fairly quiet though and with the Premiership kicking off next weekend I'm sure we will have bets soon.

[MattR]

Frustrating when that happens isn't it! Eager to see how it gets going live and there are no qualifiers.

Good luck Mat :thumbs

[scoobydoo]

Good luck with this mat, will be following :smile:

[mathare]

I should mention quickly that this is a live trial and while the system has been profitable in the past this is the first season it will be tested with real data that I have collected myself. Because of that you may just want to paper-trade the selections. If you do put money down on these I suggest you keep the stakes small, just in case. I will have real money on all the selections as I am confident it will turn a reasonable profit but I too am keeping the stakes down just to be on the safe side.

Ultimately though, you're big enough and ugly enough to look after yourselves. It's your money - do what you want with it :thumbs

[scoobydoo]

Ultimately though, you're big enough and ugly enough to look after yourself. It's your money - do what you want with it :thumbs

Talking about Matt like that....shocking really :omg: :smile:

[Win2Win]

Did you find any reason for the drop in SR's for the seasons 03-05? Wrong type of grass or something!!! :laughitupsmilie: ..... as long as the bottom line is profit it's fine, and you expect swings, but I usually like to dig a little deeper looking for any trends that caused the drop, and then see if negative trend continues even when the overall SR improves. I'll shut up now as my mind is muddled :lickme

[mathare]

Did you find any reason for the drop in SR's for the seasons 03-05?No, not really. The make-up of the bets in those years was slightly different to normal with fewer home bets which would account for some of the SR drop. But I examined the full breakdown of each constituent trend when putting this together and while some had minor blips like this ultimately the system was profitable every year and shows a decent level of return so who am I to argue with that?

[Laf]

Best of luck with this Mathare. I'm looking forward to seeing how it gets on.

[vegyjones]

:thumbs

[Win2Win]

:thumbs
This translates to Vegy has no idea what anyone is talking about :biggrin:

[mathare]

It's taken a little while to get going but we finally have a bet for this weekend to get this thread up and running :happyboun

Rateform Bets
14/08/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet, Tote Sport, Betfred)

[Laf]

That match has been postponed due to Southampton's owner passing away.

[mathare]

Cheers Laf. I thought the markets were a bit sparse on Oddschecker but didn't really know why.

I guess we're not up and running yet after all :(

[mathare]

We do have a bet after all, although I'm a little puzzled as to why this one didn't come up when I ran the code yesterday :doh

14/08/2010 Hartlepool v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet) +2.24pts

[MattR]

That's odd Mat? What made you run it again? Look forward to seeing how these do (oh and nice start on those HDA one's last week, some cracking away wins in there) :thumbs

[mathare]

That's odd Mat? What made you run it again? Look forward to seeing how these do (oh and nice start on those HDA one's last week, some cracking away wins in there) :thumbsI ran it again so I could use the latest odds in case that made a difference. It didn't (as none of the odds used were a relevant factor this week) but I did find this bet. I checked yesterday's version and it came up then too. Bizarre. But I am 100% sure this is a qualifying bet so we are up and running after all, despite the false start

[mathare]

Hartlepool v Swindon ended 2-2 yesterday to give us our first winner on this system. :thumbs

Even though I advise the best available odds with each bet I will actually be settling to average odds at the time I run the code to produce the qualifiers. This is in recognition of the fact that not everyone can get on at the best odds, especially when they are only available with one firm was the case with yesterday's 12/5 about the draw which was only available at Sky Bet. The average price was 3.24 in decimal odds (used because once you average several fractional odds you rarely end up with a suitable fraction at the end) so yesterday's 1pt bet on the draw was good for +2.24pts.

There's no point putting up a stats table after one bet but as the number of bets in this system increases I will start putting up regular tables of stats so you can see how the system progresses throughout the season.

There's nothing for the Liverpool v Arsenal game, by the way. I haven't checked the Monday night Premiership game as I want to make sure I am using the latest odds so I will check that match on Monday morning.

[mathare]

Nothing for the Man Utd-Newcastle game this evening so we have a few days off now as there are no midweek games. Don't spend all your +2.24pts profit at once :laugh

[mathare]

I worked out why last weekend's qualifier didn't come up when I ran the code first time. It did appear as a qualifier but the code that outputs the bets contained a bug that overwrote the previous qualifier. So with the MK Dons v Southampton match in the list that bet overwrote Hartlepool v Swindon but when I deleted the postponed match we were left with just the one qualifier. All fixed now though, as evidenced by the fact we have two qualifiers this weekend.

21/08/2010 Peterboro v Huddersfield - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet, Betfred, Coral)
21/08/2010 Crewe v Barnet - 1pt Away Win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

[mathare]

Two losers over the weekend with Crewe absolutely hammering Barnet and Peterborough beating Huddersfield.

1 from 3 (33.33%)
+0.24pts (7.96% ROI)

[mathare]

28/08/2010 Portsmouth v Cardiff - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
28/08/2010 Bristol Rvs v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
28/08/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)

[mathare]

All losers last weekend

1 from 6 (16.67%)
-2.76pts (-46.02% ROI)

[mathare]

A bumper crop for tomorrow

04/09/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Hartlepool - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Blue Square, 888 Sport)
04/09/2010 Dag and Red v Leyton Orient - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Exeter v Charlton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Huddersfield v Bournemouth - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James)
04/09/2010 Notts County v Yeovil - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Bwin)
04/09/2010 Southampton v Rochdale - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Boyle Sports)
04/09/2010 Accrington v Wycombe - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (4 bookies)
04/09/2010 Chesterfield v Lincoln - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (5 bookies)
04/09/2010 Stevenage v Crewe - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)

[scoobydoo]

Thank Mat and for t'others :thumbs

[mathare]

A small profit at the weekend with 5 from 9, +1.74pts

6 from 15 (40.00%)
-1.02pts (-6.83% ROI)

[mathare]

11/09/2010 Charlton v Notts County - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet365)
11/09/2010 Leyton Orient v Huddersfield - 1pt Draw @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
11/09/2010 Peterboro v Oldham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (William Hill)
11/09/2010 Rochdale v Walsall - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet365)
11/09/2010 Stockport v Bradford - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 9/10 (Bet365)
11/09/2010 Torquay v Accrington - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 19/20 (Bet365)
11/09/2010 Wycombe v Macclesfield - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)

[mathare]

Previous results etc will have to wait till I am back from my holidays

14/09/2010 Leicester v Cardiff - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet)
14/09/2010 Preston v Nott'm Forest - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet)
15/09/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Bet365, Extrabet)

[mathare]

18/09/2010 Preston v Norwich - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (Sky Bet)
18/09/2010 Brentford v Hartlepool - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Betfred)
18/09/2010 Huddersfield v Yeovil - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Blue Square, 888 Sport)
18/09/2010 Notts County v Leyton Orient - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Betfred, Stan James)
18/09/2010 Southampton v Colchester - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)
18/09/2010 Tranmere v Charlton - 1pt Draw @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
18/09/2010 Walsall v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 5/2 (Ladbrokes)
18/09/2010 Barnet v Rotherham - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
18/09/2010 Bury v Hereford - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (5 bookies)
18/09/2010 Chesterfield v Cheltenham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)

[mathare]

Overall standings are now:

13 from 35 (37.14%)
-6.95pts (-19.86% ROI)

The SR is currently around 10% lower than it 'should' be and none of the divisions are really firing as I'd hope for. All my football portfolio systems are having a rough month though. Let's hope things start to turn around soon

[mathare]

25/09/2010 Brighton v Oldham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Sky Bet)
25/09/2010 Charlton v Dag and Red - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 118421/125000 (Bwin)
25/09/2010 Colchester v Tranmere - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet365)
25/09/2010 Peterboro v Milton Keynes Dons - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Bet365, Extrabet)
25/09/2010 Morecambe v Barnet - 1pt Away Win @ 7/2 (Coral, William Hill)
25/09/2010 Morecambe v Barnet - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Sky Bet)
25/09/2010 Port Vale v Accrington - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (10 bookies)
25/09/2010 Torquay v Macclesfield - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet365)

[mathare]

A pretty sucky weekend with just one winner, Port Vale v Accrington to be under 2.5 goals. That's a loss of 6.23pts to average odds.

14 from 43 (32.56%)
-13.18pts (-30.65% ROI)

The SR is still well down on what is expected for this system. Hopefully that means a correction is due soon as September is traditionally a decent month for this system whereas October is quite often pretty poor.

[mathare]

A busy midweek coming up so let's hope the correction starts here...

28/09/2010 Brighton v Brentford - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet365)
28/09/2010 Charlton v Milton Keynes Dons - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet365)
28/09/2010 Colchester v Dag and Red - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet365)
28/09/2010 Peterboro v Notts County - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
28/09/2010 Swindon v Plymouth - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Stan James)
28/09/2010 Yeovil v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 13/5 (Victor Chandler, William Hill)
28/09/2010 Rotherham v Bradford - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (4 bookies)
28/09/2010 Stockport v Accrington - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Bet365, Stan James)
28/09/2010 Wycombe v Barnet - 1pt Away Win @ 4/1 (5 bookies)
28/09/2010 Wycombe v Barnet - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (7 bookies)

[mathare]

Nope, we're still waiting for that correction to kick in after only getting 4 winners midweek, mostly at short odds too.

18 from 53 (33.96%)
-14.44pts (-27.24% ROI)

[mathare]

02/10/2010 Birmingham v Everton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (5 bookies)
02/10/2010 Stoke v Blackburn - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bet365, Bodog)
02/10/2010 Sunderland v Man United - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 West Ham v Fulham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bodog, William Hill)
02/10/2010 Barnsley v Cardiff - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (William Hill)
02/10/2010 Bristol City v Norwich - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Crystal Palace v QPR - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (William Hill)
02/10/2010 Doncaster v Nott'm Forest - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Stan James, Bodog)
02/10/2010 Preston v Reading - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Brentford v Charlton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Dag and Red v Swindon - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill)
02/10/2010 Exeter v Rochdale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 39/40 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Milton Keynes Dons v Colchester - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Paddy Power, Bwin)
02/10/2010 Tranmere v Brighton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 9/8 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Accrington v Gillingham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (5 bookies)
02/10/2010 Macclesfield v Northampton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
02/10/2010 Oxford v Port Vale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 9/8 (Bet365)

[mathare]

7 out of 17 last weekend for a loss of 3.12pts

Overall
25 from 70 (35.71%)
-17.56pts (-25.09% ROI)

[mathare]

09/10/2010 Hartlepool v Peterboro - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 (Bet365)
09/10/2010 Plymouth v Charlton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Paddy Power)
09/10/2010 Walsall v Exeter - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)
09/10/2010 Barnet v Bradford - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 9/8 (Bet365)
09/10/2010 Burton v Wycombe - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (4 bookies)
09/10/2010 Hereford v Port Vale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 9/8 (Bet365)
09/10/2010 Lincoln v Macclesfield - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler)
09/10/2010 Oxford v Aldershot - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Bet365, Victor Chandler)

[barrelmaniac]

Do you never find best odds with betfair (after commission calculations) for these matches?

[mathare]

Do you never find best odds with betfair (after commission calculations) for these matches?Yes, when I put the bets on myself I often find Betfair to be best price but I only use the Oddschecker bookmakers (not exchanges) when putting up prices so that anyone following has a better chance of getting best price. If you use Betfair it also gives you a guide of what price you should be looking to beat

[mathare]

A loss of 0.31pts last weekend with 4 winners not quite enough to see us record a profit.

Overall
29 from 78 (37.18%)
-17.88pts (-22.92% ROI)

[mathare]

16/10/2010 Bolton v Stoke - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (4 bookies)
16/10/2010 Fulham v Tottenham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Bodog)
16/10/2010 Aston Villa v Chelsea - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (Stan James)
16/10/2010 Barnsley v Nott'm Forest - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (Paddy Power, Coral, William Hill)
16/10/2010 Crystal Palace v Millwall - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Betfred)
16/10/2010 Bristol Rvs v Rochdale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
16/10/2010 Peterboro v Swindon - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 (Bet365, Bwin)
16/10/2010 Yeovil v Sheffield Weds - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bet365, Bodog)
16/10/2010 Accrington v Rotherham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Paddy Power)
17/10/2010 Everton v Liverpool - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 13/10 (Bodog)
17/10/2010 Blackpool v Man City - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (Bet365)

[mathare]

19/10/2010 Bristol City v Reading - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 20/21 (Bodog)
19/10/2010 Coventry v Cardiff - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Bet365)

[mathare]

A small profit (+1.64pts) in the last week. Overall stats are now:

37 from 91 (40.66%)
-16.24pts (-17.85% ROI)

[mathare]

22/10/2010 Bristol City v QPR - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power)
23/10/2010 Sunderland v Aston Villa - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Bodog)
23/10/2010 Brentford v Peterboro - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 31/40 (Bet365)
23/10/2010 Carlisle v Charlton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Blue Square, 888 Sport)
23/10/2010 Plymouth v Huddersfield - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet365)
23/10/2010 Barnet v Macclesfield - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 19/20 (Bet365)
23/10/2010 Cheltenham v Port Vale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Bet365, Betfred)
23/10/2010 Crewe v Aldershot - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)
23/10/2010 Lincoln v Stockport - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
24/10/2010 Stoke v Man United - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (William Hill)
24/10/2010 Man City v Arsenal - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Bet365, William Hill)

[mathare]

One for tonight's Championship game

25/10/2010 Leeds v Cardiff - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Stan James)

[mathare]

I had really high hopes for this system but it's really not got off to the kind of start I wanted.

A slight profit last weekend, up 0.45pts. Overall standings are now:
44 from 103 (42.72%)
-15.79% (-15.33% ROI)

[mathare]

30/10/2010 Blackburn v Chelsea - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (Stan James)
30/10/2010 Wolves v Man City - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 43/40 (Bet365)
30/10/2010 Crystal Palace v Swansea - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 9/8 (Bet365)
30/10/2010 Portsmouth v Nott'm Forest - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (7 bookies)
30/10/2010 Leyton Orient v Rochdale - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
30/10/2010 Notts County v Southampton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 39/40 (Bet365)
30/10/2010 Oldham v Plymouth - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (William Hill)
30/10/2010 Peterboro v Brighton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Betfred)
30/10/2010 Yeovil v Swindon - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Betfred)
30/10/2010 Northampton v Gillingham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Betfred)
31/10/2010 Newcastle v Sunderland - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 41/40 (Bet365)
31/10/2010 Bolton v Liverpool - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bodog)

[scoobydoo]

100% on these so far for this weekend Mat, nice one. In fact a much better weekend for all of them...more like it eh! :thumbs

[mathare]

Just Bolton-Liverpool letting us down then. Still, I'll take that :thumbs

A profit of 8.58pts to average odds means the overall stats are now:
55 from 115 (47.83%)
-7.21pts (-6.27% ROI)

[mathare]

One for tonight's Premiership match but nothing for tomorrow night's lower league action

01/11/2010 Blackpool v West Brom - 2pts Home Win @ 19/10 (William Hill)

[mathare]

A winner in the Blackpool-West Brom game was good for 3.53pts.

Now I found an error in the way I was settling bets - the average odds I was using was miscalculated which resulted in me under-reporting profits in some cases - which I have now corrected so the accurate figures for this system stand at:

57 from 117 (48.72%)
-1.17pts (-1.00% ROI)

[mathare]

06/11/2010 Bolton v Tottenham - 2pts Home Win @ 21/10 (Victor Chandler, Paddy Power)
06/11/2010 Blackpool v Everton - 2pts Home Win @ 4/1 (Victor Chandler, Stan James)
06/11/2010 Fulham v Aston Villa - 2pts Home Win @ 11/8 (Blue Square, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes)
07/11/2010 West Brom v Man City - 2pts Home Win @ 14/5 (Victor Chandler)
07/11/2010 Liverpool v Chelsea - 2pts Home Win @ 3/1 (Boyle Sports)

Looking at those I can't see any clear home wins myself but these are system bets so we should do as the system says and back all those home sides to win. Then cross our fingers and hope!

[mathare]

Looking at those I can't see any clear home wins myself but these are system bets so we should do as the system says and back all those home sides to win. Then cross our fingers and hope!That worked with Bolton beating Spurs and Liverpool beating Chelsea for a total profit of 3.45pts to average odds.

61 from 127 (48.03%)
+2.28pts (+1.80% ROI)

Back in profit - just! :thumbs

[mathare]

A few for tomorrow...

10/11/2010 West Ham v West Brom - 1pt Home Win @ 11/8 (5 bookies)
10/11/2010 Wigan v Liverpool - 2pts Home Win @ 4/1 (4 bookies)
10/11/2010 Wolves v Arsenal - 2pts Home Win @ 5/1 (7 bookies)
10/11/2010 Man City v Man United - 2pts Home Win @ 17/10 (5 bookies)

[mathare]

Nothing doing midweek

61 from 134 (45.52%)
-4.72pts (-3.52%)

[mathare]

13/11/2010 Aston Villa v Man United - 2pts Home Win @ 4/1 (4 bookies)
13/11/2010 Wigan v West Brom - 1pt Home Win @ 8/5 (William Hill)
13/11/2010 Stoke v Liverpool - 2pts Home Win @ 3/1 (Sky Bet, Boyle Sports, Victor Chandler)
14/11/2010 Everton v Arsenal - 2pts Home Win @ 12/5 (4 bookies)

[mathare]

2 winners last weekend for a profit of 2.87pts

64 from 141 (45.39%)
-1.84pts (-1.31%)

[mathare]

20/11/2010 Arsenal v Tottenham - 1pt Home Win @ 4/6 (7 bookies)
20/11/2010 Birmingham v Chelsea - 2pts Home Win @ 9/2 (8 bookies)
21/11/2010 Blackburn v Aston Villa - 2pts Home Win @ 11/8 (4 bookies)
21/11/2010 Fulham v Man City - 2pts Home Win @ 9/4 (Victor Chandler)

[mathare]

22/11/2010 Sunderland v Everton - 2pts Home Win @ 7/4 (Betfred, Victor Chandler, William Hill)

[mathare]

A profit of 5.94pts last weekend with winners for Birmingham and Blackburn

Standings are now:
68 from 150 (45.33%)
+4.10pts (2.73%)

[mathare]

27/11/2010 Aston Villa v Arsenal - 2pts Home Win @ 13/5 (Boyle Sports)
27/11/2010 Stoke v Man City - 2pts Home Win @ 11/4 (William Hill)
27/11/2010 Wolves v Sunderland - 2pts Home Win @ 13/8 (4 bookies)
28/11/2010 Newcastle v Chelsea - 2pts Home Win @ 9/2 (Boyle Sports, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
28/11/2010 Tottenham v Liverpool - 1pt Home Win @ 11/10 (11 bookies)

[mathare]

A loss of 1.91pts to average odds last weekend.

71 from 159 (44.65%)
2.18pts (1.37%)

[mathare]

04/12/2010 Arsenal v Fulham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 8/13 (6 bookies)
04/12/2010 Chelsea v Everton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 (Bet365)
04/12/2010 Man City v Bolton - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet365)
05/12/2010 Sunderland v West Ham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Bet365)

[mathare]

06/12/2010 Liverpool v Aston Villa - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

A loss of 1.51pts since the last update
73 from 164 (44.51%)
+0.68pts (0.41%)

[mathare]

11/12/2010 Everton v Wigan - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet 365)
12/12/2010 Charlton v Walsall - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Paddy Power)

[mathare]

13/12/2010 Man United v Arsenal - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

Nothing doing last weekend with all bets losing
73 from 167 (43.71%)
-2.32pts (-1.39%)

[mathare]

18/12/2010 Arsenal v Stoke - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (Stan James)
18/12/2010 Blackburn v West Ham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 20/21 (Stan James)
18/12/2010 Liverpool v Fulham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (7 bookies)
18/12/2010 Nott'm Forest v Crystal Palace - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Bet 365, William Hill)
18/12/2010 Port Vale v Barnet - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 37/40 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

Stats etc to be updated when I have a bit more time i.e. after christmas

26/12/2010 Everton v Birmingham - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 23/20 (Bodog, William Hill)
26/12/2010 Man United v Sunderland - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (Stan James)

[mathare]

Rateform Bets
28/12/2010 Man City v Aston Villa - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 10/3 (Victor Chandler)
28/12/2010 Tottenham v Newcastle - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (8 bookies)
29/12/2010 Liverpool v Wolves - 1pt Over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 (9 bookies)

[mathare]

Current stats are:
75 from 173 (43.35%)
-4.36pts (-2.52%)

[mathare]

01/01/2011 Liverpool v Bolton - 1pt Draw @ 14/5 (Boylesports)
01/01/2011 Man City v Blackpool - 1pt Draw @ 5/1 (Victor Chandler)
01/01/2011 Tottenham v Fulham - 1pt Draw @ 7/2 (6 bookies)

[mathare]

03/01/2011 Wycombe v Gillingham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (Sporting Bet)
04/01/2011 Man United v Stoke - 1pt Draw @ 19/4 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

15/01/2011 Man City v Wolves - 1pt Draw @ 4/1 (9 bookies)
15/01/2011 Chesterfield v Stevenage - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (8 bookies)

[mathare]

Right, I'm back in action now so let's get this going again...

12/02/2011 Man United v Man City - 1pt Draw @ 14/5 (Victor Chandler)
12/02/2011 Liverpool v Wigan - 1pt Draw @ 4/1 (Victor Chandler)
12/02/2011 Brighton v Hartlepool - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 6/5 (Coral)
12/02/2011 Charlton v Peterboro - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 13/8 (Coral)
12/02/2011 Huddersfield v Oldham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (4 bookies)
12/02/2011 Southampton v Carlisle - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/5 (Sporting Bet, Coral)
12/02/2011 Port Vale v Northampton - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 3/4 (Bwin)

[mathare]

15/02/2011 Aldershot v Lincoln - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

A profit of 2.55pts this past week

81 from 188 (43.09%)
-5.17pts (-2.75%)

One for tonight and a few for Saturday...
18/02/2011 Port Vale v Bradford - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (Stan James)
19/02/2011 Charlton v Exeter - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Bet 365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
19/02/2011 Colchester v Walsall - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Paddy Power, Bwin)
19/02/2011 Peterboro v Tranmere - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 13/8 (Stan James, Coral)
19/02/2011 Cheltenham v Barnet - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 9/10 (Bet 365)
19/02/2011 Wycombe v Accrington - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/6 (Victor Chandler)

[mathare]

22/02/2011 Bournemouth v Sheffield Weds - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Paddy Power)
22/02/2011 Brentford v Tranmere - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 9/10 (Bet 365)
22/02/2011 Brighton v Plymouth - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Sporting Bet, Paddy Power)
22/02/2011 Southend v Barnet - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet 365)
22/02/2011 Wycombe v Burton - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 33/40 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

Down 5.25pts this week

84 from 199 (42.21%)
-10.41pts (-5.23%)

[mathare]

26/02/2011 Brentford v Bristol Rvs - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Sporting Bet, Bwin)
26/02/2011 Huddersfield v Leyton Orient - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (4 bookies)
26/02/2011 Southampton v Swindon - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 6/4 (Paddy Power, Coral)
26/02/2011 Chesterfield v Morecambe - 2pts Under 2.5 goals @ 21/20 (Bet 365, Victor Chandler, William Hill)
26/02/2011 Stevenage v Cheltenham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11 (Bet 365, Victor Chandler, Stan James)
27/02/2011 Man City v Fulham - 1pt Draw @ 16/5 (Sky Bet)

[mathare]

There were a couple of midweek bets I missed it seems. Whoops! The stats below include those, which were:

01/03/2011 Chesterfield v Wycombe - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (Bet 365)
01/03/2011 Lincoln v Oxford - 1pt Home Win @ 6/4 (8 bookies)

90 from 209 (43.06%)
-4.05pts (-1.94% ROI)

[mathare]

05/03/2011 Lincoln v Accrington - 1pt Home Win @ 17/10 (William Hill)

[mathare]

08/03/2011 Barnet v Wycombe - 1pt Home Win @ 13/5 (William Hill)
08/03/2011 Chesterfield v Northampton - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (William Hill)

[mathare]

Updated stats now read:
90 from 212 (42.45%)
-7.05pts (-3.32%)

[mathare]

Just one for this weekend
12/03/2011 Lincoln v Southend - 1pt Home Win @ 17/10 (William Hill)

[mathare]

91 from 213 (42.72%)
-5.46pts (-2.57%)

[mathare]

Note there is one for tonight...

18/03/2011 Chesterfield v Rotherham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 7/8 (Bwin)
19/03/2011 Southampton v Sheffield Weds - 1pt Draw @ 10/3 (5 bookies)
19/03/2011 Barnet v Morecambe - 1pt Home Win @ 6/4 (William Hill)

[mathare]

Nothing doing last week

91 from 216 (42.13%)
-8.46pts (-3.92%)

[mathare]

25/03/2011 Lincoln v Rotherham - 1pt Home Win @ 15/8 (Victor Chandler)
26/03/2011 Brighton v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 10/3 (Victor Chandler, Coral)
26/03/2011 Barnet v Chesterfield - 1pt Home Win @ 14/5 (Totesport)

[mathare]

Nothing doing last week

91 from 219 (41.55%)
-11.46pts (-5.23%)

[mathare]

02/04/2011 Southampton v Milton Keynes Dons - 1pt Draw @ 10/3 (Victor Chandler)
02/04/2011 Burton v Barnet - 1pt Away Win @ 11/4 (Betfred, Sporting Bet, Victor Chandler)
02/04/2011 Chesterfield v Port Vale - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 10/11 (William Hill)
02/04/2011 Torquay v Lincoln - 1pt Away Win @ 5/1 (Sky Bet, Sporting Bet)

[mathare]

Looks like I missed posting one midweek, a 1pt bet on the draw in the Southampton v Charlton match. It lost.

Current stats including that missed midweeker then are:
93 from 224 (41.52%)
-11.18pts (-4.99%)

[mathare]

09/04/2011 Brighton v Sheffield Weds - 1pt Draw @ 3/1 (Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Coral)

[mathare]

12/04/2011 Brighton v Dag and Red - 1pt Draw @ 57/17 (Unibet)

[MattR]

12/04/2011 Brighton v Dag and Red - 1pt Draw @ 57/17 (Unibet)

That's an unusual one Mat, don't think I've ever seen 57/ 17 before!

[mathare]

That's an unusual one Mat, don't think I've ever seen 57/ 17 before!No, it was a new one on me too but Unibet throw up some odd prices including multiples of 13 and 17. I haven't checked to see if the prices are actually decimals that Oddschecker is rounding to fractions but either way it doesn't make much difference. And yesterday I looked at some ice hockey prices on Oddschecker that included 20/27 for several firms and that was a genuine price, not rounded. So weird prices are out there it seems.

[mathare]

Two losers last week

93 from 226 (41.15%)
-13.18pts (-5.83%)

[mathare]

16/04/2011 Southampton v Bristol Rvs - 1pt Draw @ 17/4 (Victor Chandler)
16/04/2011 Chesterfield v Macclesfield - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (Bodog, Coral, William Hill)
16/04/2011 Crewe v Lincoln - 1pt Away Win @ 9/2 (Bet 365, Sky Bet, Cora

[mathare]

22/04/2011 Bury v Lincoln - 1pt Away Win @ 13/2 (Bet 365, Victor Chandler, William Hill)

[mathare]

23/04/2011 Brighton v Southampton - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (6 bookies)

[mathare]

25/04/2011 Southampton v Hartlepool - 1pt Draw @ 5/1 (Victor Chandler)
25/04/2011 Chesterfield v Bury - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Bet 365)

[mathare]

30/04/2011 Brighton v Huddersfield - 1pt Draw @ 5/2 (Unibet)
30/04/2011 Bury v Wycombe - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (Bet 365, Victor Chandler)
30/04/2011 Oxford v Lincoln - 1pt Away Win @ 11/4 (Victor Chandler)

[mathare]

It's not been the best of times recently

93 from 236 (39.41%)
-23.18pts (-9.82%)

[mathare]

These will probably be the last qualifiers of the season as I am nipping off on holiday soon.

07/05/2011 Middlesbrough v Doncaster - 1pt Draw @ 11/4 (Sky Bet, Coral, William Hill)
07/05/2011 Reading v Derby - 1pt Draw @ 16/5 (William Hill)
07/05/2011 Colchester v Bristol Rvs - 1pt Draw @ 13/5 (Victor Chandler, Paddy Power)
07/05/2011 Huddersfield v Brentford - 1pt Draw @ 5/2 (4 bookies)
07/05/2011 Peterboro v Dag and Red - 1pt Draw @ 11/4 (Totesport)
07/05/2011 Southampton v Walsall - 1pt Draw @ 14/5 (Totesport, Victor Chandler)
07/05/2011 Tranmere v Swindon - 1pt Draw @ 13/5 (Victor Chandler)
07/05/2011 Chesterfield v Gillingham - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 952381/1000000 (Victor Chandler)
07/05/2011 Morecambe v Northampton - 1pt Draw @ 13/5 (Betfred, Unibet)
07/05/2011 Stockport v Cheltenham - 1pt Draw @ 12/5 (5 bookies)
07/05/2011 Wycombe v Southend - 1pt Under 2.5 goals @ 952381/1000000 (Victor Chandler)

[mathare]

A rubbish final weekend with a loss of 4.18pts

95 from 247 (38.46%)
-27.37pts (-11.08%)

I think it's fair to say this didn't exactly go to plan this season and there is little point continuing next season