2011 3yo's -

[Godspot]

That Common Touch winning on Saturday helped me realise what it is that I'm supposed to be looking for whilst generating my figures and that would seem, 'rapidly improving, well handicapped types' and I reckon it must be the time of year for them as there were a few over the weekend - obviously their future's will lie in the hands of the handicapper & that's what I'll try & keep tabs on here....

Apache
Brown Panther
Codemaster (better than h'cap - R Ascot material?)
Common Touch
Communicator
Future Generation
Halifax
Hunter's Light
Rhythm Of Light
Sagramor

[Godspot]

Got a few teething problems with this as I haven't got figures for beaten horses on my spreadsheet, going to have to edit them in?

& then there's little things like Golden Lilac (who has twice clocked a faster furlong than Frankel has) & Carlton House who win class races but in slow times? Still scratching my head on that one but

135+me / 141 NM Frankel Cecil H R A -

"I will never doubt FRANKEL (47/141) again after what he did in the Sussex Stakes. He loped along in the lead at a moderate pace then picked up in almost unbelievable fashion over the last half mile. He ran the first four furlongs in a modest 52.78 seconds and the final four furlongs in a near impossible 44.69 seconds. .

The bare final time merits a speed rating of 43/129 from me. But when I factor in the amazing way he quickened up I must award Frankel the joint highest speed rating I've ever given. Only Falbrav and Dayjur have ever earned a rating that big from me before on the flat." Nick Mordin

135+ Danedream (Ger) f Shiergen P(Ger) - Quickened Clear 5l's whilst running the fastest ever Arc, last fastest Peintre Celebre (Fr) 1997 rated 137 by Timeform & RPR & TS

133+ Immortal Verse (Ire) Collet R(Fr)

133+ Reliable Man Royer-Dupre A de(Fr) - My Arc fancy! Ground went against & doesn't like it fast -

130+ Dream Ahead (USA) Simcock David - 7/2 Beat Goldikova PRIX DE LA FORET (GROUP 1)

129+ Excelebration (Ire) Botti Marco - Breeders Cup Mile says Mordin Aug 11 -

129+ Meandre (Fr) Fabre A(Fr)

128 Shareta (Ire) Royer-Dupre A De(Fr) 66/1 Arc 2nd

125+ Masked Marvel Gosden John A couple of wins since first appearing, including now a Course Record in the St Leger

125p Dubawi Gold Hannon Richard XoM =PB 125+ Q'd Imprsvly Gr2 14dys 8gs Good Aug 11

125+ Blue Bunting (USA) Zarooni Mahmoud Al - Latest N Mordin Leger candidate Aug 11

125 Misty For Me (Ire) O'Brien A P(Ire)

124p Bible Belt (Ire) f Harrington Mrs John(Ire)

124 Grand Vent (Ire) Fabre A(Fr)

124 Dominant (Ire) Varian Roger

123 Tresure Beach Galileo (IRE)(11.1f) O'Brien A(Ire)

123+ Dancing Rain (Ire) f Haggas William (wins Gr1 in Germany Aug 2011)

123 Barocci (Jpn) Lellouche E (Fr)

122+ Galikova (Fr) Head F(Fr) f - Arc prospect allegedly?

122+ Sea Moon Stoute M R - Wins 11/2 @ York Ebor meet.

122+ Margot Did f Bell Michael Won Nunthorpe 20/1

122 Brown Panther Dascombe Tom - not up to Gr1 says Nick Mordin / Could be up to it somewhere in Europe says me after St Leger 2nd?

121 Recital (Fr) O'Brien A P(Ire)

121 Modern History (Ire) Fabre A (Fr)

121 Columbian (Ire) c Gosden John (soft)

120+ Dubai Prince (Ire) Zarooni Mahmoud Al

120+ Lay Time Balding Andrew - Should be winning Gr1's 2012 says Mordin

120 Roderic O'Connor (Ire) O'Brien A P(Ire)

120+ French Navy Zarooni Mahmoud Al - could heading for Dubai?

120+ Nathaniel (Ire) by top sire Galileo (Ire) Gosden John

120+ Earl Of Tinsdale (Ger) Wohler A(Ger) 'still a big baby' says trnr 4th start & smart in the mud' NM Aug 11 -

120+ Waldpark (Ger) Wohler A (Ger) Q'd to lead & Comf 40/120(NM) Ger Derby July 11 - but may not see the best of till 4yo & CdeR sire!!

120 Dux Scholar Stoute M R (possibly better soft grnd)

119+ Golden Lilac (Ire) Fabre A (Fr) f

119+ Pour Moi (Ire) Fabre A(Fr) - Injured & retired Aug 11 -

119+ Al Kazeem Charlton Roger - cld be Gr1 says N Mordin

119+ Dream Peace (Ire) f Collet R(Fr) (fig achieved on soft)

118+ Pacifique (Ire) Royer-Dupre A de(Fr) Improved 4 trip & or very soft ground?

118+ Saddler's Rock (Ire) Oxx John M(Ire) Rapidly Improving 3y takes Doncaster Cup 11/2 - 120 NM & has Ascot Gold Cup (fast grnd plz) as long-term target.

118 Carlton House (USA) Stoute M

118+ Mohedian Lady (Ire) f Cumani Luca - PB Crse Rec (std +2.43s) 118+me 19dys 12gf NewmR Sep after Improved Sep 11 -

118+ Hunters Light (Ire) Suroor S bin - XoM PB 118+me 35dys 10s Good & Improved Sep 11 - XoM PB 105p me 2nd start 191dys 10g OTF NewmR & progressive May 11

118 Tin Horse (Ire) Guillemin D(Fr)

117 Wonder Of Wonders (USA) f O'Brien A P(Ire)

117 Perfect Tribute Cox Clive (holds 2 Crse Recs)

116+ Western Aristocrat (USA) Noseda Jeremy - broke K-aw 8sd Crse Rec, last one to do so won a Gr3 within 6 months!

116+ Wild Coco (Ger) f Cecil Henry [dunno what to make of, scored 128 Easily so have taken out 12lb weight-4-age, could be anything given a bit of cut?]

116+ Set To Music (Ire) Bell Michael

116 Memphis Tennessee (IRE) O'Brien A P(Ire)

115+ Tanfeeth Dunlop Ed

115+Imperial Pippin (USA) f Gosden J - Improved behind Mohedian Lady's Crse Rec run Sep 11 -

115 Native Khan (Fr) Dunlop Ed

115 World Domination Cecil H R A

115 Auld Burns Hannon R

114ish Motivado Prescott M - Cracking hurdle prospect or Cup horse next year? (109>poss 119 & Improved Sep 11 - OTF 12f+ esp h'caps ag' elders etc!)

114+ Zanughan (Ire) Oxx John M(Ire) - XoM PB 114+me 110dys 12g Galw & Improved Aug 11

114+ Barbican Bailey Alan XoM PB 114+me 29dys 12g Asc & Improved Sep 11 - NMQ Newm May 11 OTF 12f+ esp h'caps ag elders?

113+ Theyskens' Theory (USA) Meehan Brian - pretty HOT in Listed grade & won again 7/1 Aug 2011

113+ Hooray f Prescott Mark

113+ Chilworth Lad Channon Mick bt elders & dual 7f Newbury winner by Sep 11 -

112+ Qushchi f Jarvis William - Broke 8yo - Crse Rec Sep 11 - Btn by a full second a day or so later by Mohedian Lady above)

112+ Alanza (Ire) Oxx John M(Ire)

112+ Dick Doughty Wylie Gosden John - commentators on Betfair Radio said the winner of Class 2 h'cap same CD same day had to be pattern class, well this one clocked equal time same weight & only 3rd start in a mdn so should be on par?

112 Wild Wind (Ger) f O'Brien A P(Ire) Won Listed 8g Aug 11 but is German bred so could improve when stepped up in trip?

112 Vadamar (Fr) Dupre-Royer A de

112 Prarie Star (Fr) Lellouche E(Fr)

111+ Singe The Turf (Ire) Bolger J S(Ire) - First Time Out! Should prove Group class & fig boosted & proved by 8l's 3rd winning in good time Sep 1st

111+ Highland Castle Elsworth David Lands a small gamble Sep 1st 3/1jf & steadily climbing > (poss 121 - 13lb w-f-a? from Hayd July)

111 Izzi Top f Gosden John

111 Codemaster Candy Henry

111 Banimpire (Ire) Bolger J S(Ire)

111 Introvert (Ire) Zarooni Mahmoud Al

111 Alexander Pope (Ire) O'Brien A P(Ire)

110 Tazahum (USA) Stoute M R

110 Dordogne (Ire) Johnston Mark - Won Gr race in Turkey I think Sep 11

109 Ahtoug Zarooni Mahmoud Al

108 Zain Al Boldan Channon M R

107+ Thistle Bird Charlton R

107 Glen's Diamond Fahey Richard
107 Pausanias Hannon R
107 Chef Balding A - didn't have to be at best to run XoM (time of meet) @ Donc early June & boosts Auld Burns above -
106+ Wizz Kid (Ire) Collet R(Fr)

106 Beatrice Aurore (Ire) Dunlop John
106 Lord Of The Stars (USA) Simcock David
105 Communicator Bell Michael
105 Admiral Of The Red (Ire) O'Brien A P(Ire)
104 Malthouse (Ger) Johnston Mark
104 Emiyna (USA) Oxx John M(Ire)
104 Neebras (Ire) Zarooni Mahmoud Al
103 Siren's Song (Ire) f Harrington Mrs J(Ire)
103 Clinical f Prescott Mark
103 Common Touch (Ire) Fahey Richard
103 Sagramor Morrison Hughie
103 Rhythm Of Light Dascombe Tom
102 Imperial Rome (Ire) Wachman David(Ire)
102 Together O'Brien A P(Ire)

[Godspot]

That Common Touch winning on Saturday helped me realise what it is that I'm supposed to be looking for whilst generating my figures and that would seem, 'rapidly improving, well handicapped types' and I reckon it must be the time of year for them as there were a few over the weekend - obviously their future's will lie in the hands of the handicapper & that's what I'll try & keep tabs on here....

Apache
Brown Panther 4/1f
Codemaster (better than h'cap - R Ascot material?)
Common Touch
Communicator
Future Generation
Halifax
Hunter's Light
Rhythm Of Light 8/1
Sagramor 8/1

Crikey! Three Royal Ascot winners amongst that little lot - Future Generation lost at Leopardstown tonight, hot little race though?

[Godspot]

One of our Rapid Improvers, Brown Panther, owned by Michael Owen, bottled out of the Irish but leads the way on my figures for the German Derby today -

wouldn't pay too much attention as I not got a clue about most of the runners but will be interesting to see how he gets on:

4.35 GR1 3Y GERMAN DERBY

NICK MORDIN GOES FOR ARRIGA – WHO RAN THE FINAL 3 FURLONGS WHEN WINNING A RENOWNED TRIAL IN 33.2 SECONDS – THAT’S FAST & IS RIDDEN BY KIEREN FALLON RATING ODDS

Brown Panther XoM =PB 107+me 26dys 12gs R Asc & def Gr class & Leger possible Jun 11 - Ano Common Touch style (107 fr 81) Rapid Improver May 11 - Ger bred 2m+ - 129
Ibicenco Ger bred 2m+ & 111 NM FTO May 11 - 123
Lindenthaler 121
Silvaner 117
Theo Danon 108

[Godspot]

At the odds & the figures it looks a close run thing today's Irish Oaks & I'm leaning towards the stats that Nick Mordin puts forth - that of the last 20 Epsom Oaks winners to contest this race - 12 have won. 4/s about that seems OK

3.45 1 GR1 3Y F’S (115- IRISH OAKS RATING ODDS

Blue Bunting – fresh, bf, XoM (std+ 1.11s) Juv Crse Rec 8gf Donc Aug 10 - 135 4/1

Laughing Lashes – fresh, C, 135 11/1

BanimpireXoM PB 111me 21dys 10g Leop Apr 11 - NMQ as 7f Curr 2nd start Aug 10 - 133 8/1

Dancing Rain Q'd clear (a good sign too!) 2 out to W Oaks in slow X Jun 11 - Oaks candidate NM Apr 11 - Hot mdn @ Newb Apr 11- 132 4/1

Wonder Of Wonders – fresh, C, Beautifully bred & wld expect considerable improvement from debut! 131 Evensf

RumhXoM 103me 27dys 10g Newb Jun 11 - Ger bred 2m+ - 125

Gemstone 120

Hurricane Havoc 108

Amazing Beauty 94

[Godspot]

My guess is that Blue Bunting is like the same stable's Rewilding in that she likes a fair break between races - 6 weeks/42 days - maybe the near-30 days at Epsom wasn't a long enough break or maybe Dancing Rain did steal it from the front - either way, she is not in the same league as the colt -

Another poor show on the figures with no great improvements - I reckon Henry Cecil may have the best 3y filly in Saturday's Newmarket winner, Wild Coco (Ger), given her required bit of cut?

[Godspot]

Fascinating to see if Dominant who clocked a whopper & near top above can beat Twice Over in a minute. Been well backed -

[Godspot]

Interesting race for 3yo's 2.35 - technically speaking Highland Castle should be top as I deducted his weight-for-age allowance from his best figure - it's a bit of a close call otherwise:

2.35 1 GR3 3Y (105+ RATING ODDS

Measuring Time – fresh, Bl* 128

Slumber – freshShld be OK for Chester Vase NM Apr 11- 128

Namibian – 3ytw jt, fresh, ff3Trnr OTF & Leger fancy Jul 11 - trnr HOT with R Hills Apr 11 - 127

Fiorente Improved ag' R Asc Jun 11 & Ger bred 2m+ - Mord Leger hope? NM's Leger NMQ 2011 - Listed/10f+ R Ascot btn 105 rpr 127

Hurricane Higgins 125

Dordogne NMQ FTO 75-85me 9g Good Sept 10 - Juv Crse Rec? 123

Moriarty XoM (std +0.10s) PB 114? fit 7gf York Aug 10 - Nunthorpe day? 122

Highland Castle – ff3, & cld be top with 135 here! Actually earned a 121 from me & with wfa 13lb could easily be 108 in time & probable Group Class? 120

Well Sharp Rapid Improved R Ascot Jun 11 - 120

Yaseer trainers OTF prefer a cut May 11 - 120

Hunter's Light XoM PB 105p me 2nd start 191dys 10g OTF NewmR & progressive May 11 119

[Godspot]

Looks like I was right giving Highland Castle a whopping 121 back in July - just annoying sometimes it takes a few runs to prove it as wins yesterday in another good time @ Salisbury after a couple of disappointments - been a few winners from above main list lately - the latest entry, Singe The Turf, looks one to take note of as I don't recall a horse clocking such a figure on his racecourse debut, no doubt, we're likely to be hearing more of him:wink:

[Godspot]

My guess is that Blue Bunting is like the same stable's Rewilding in that she likes a fair break between races - 6 weeks/42 days - maybe the near-30 days at Epsom wasn't a long enough break or maybe Dancing Rain did steal it from the front - either way, she is not in the same league as the colt -


After running a personal best last time at York she went into the Leger 21 days later & ran a stinker, well, more than a stone below her best -

Don't know where she goes next but unless it's a weak affair, 42 days or more plz.

[Godspot]

Looks like I gotta do some major re-shuffling after Longchamp today - Reliable Man who won the Prix-Niel just gone top of the charts - not completely sure but think he'll head my ratings come Arc day & they just had 4 from 6 top-rated winners this afternoon.

[Godspot]

- Reliable Man who won the Prix-Niel just gone top of the charts - not completely sure but think he'll head my ratings come Arc day & they just had 4 from 6 top-rated winners this afternoon.

While I fully respect Oddschecker - I'm in no doubt, they are wrong on this occasion - like it says down the bottom, 'progressive 3y,' look no further - Reliable Man, unless something goes wrong, he's the man!

Arc Talk

The head of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market is jammed after an unusual trials day that saw three decisive winners. Whether the form will be confirmed on 2 October, however, is another thing. Sarafina was a short neck ahead of Japanese raider Hiruno d'Amour, who had not run since winning the £1m+ Tenno Sho on 1 May (English 1000 Guineas day), but one is 7/2 for the Arc and the other 25/1.

French Derby winner Reliable Man turned round Grand Prix de Paris form with Meandre, but got first run and the latter has the Andre Fabre treatment to come. Still, they are beating each other and the form is nothing special, with the disappointing Seville sandwiching them on Bastille Day. Nathaniel looks the top 3yo colt, and Masked Marvel's Leger victory says plenty for John Gosden's race planning.

Freddie Head called Galikova's Group One win 'her Arc', but it's probably to keep the focus elsewhere. She's going the same way as her half-sister who progressed with every race at three, but has the stamina for 12f. The three horses that finished behind her yesterday had all won Group races on their prior start.

If you're looking for the typical Arc profile of progressive 3yo, Galikova and Nathaniel fit the bill, with Hiruno d'Amour the value.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Betting
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/popup_pricebox.sd?pricebox_uid=2664766

[Godspot]

One thing Oddschecker doesn't mention & it isn't acutely obvious - if you look up Meandre's form in the Racing Post it says Long 12gs on both occasions - is the difference in the ground between the two races, that is the excuse (http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=748255#topHorseTabs=horse_stories&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form)put forward by Reliable Man's trainer for his only defeat.

When Meandre beat Reliable Man back in July he clocked a 124 from me & ran near 4 seconds faster than standard -

Reliable Man just turned the form around clocking a 138 running nearly 2 seconds slower than standard - clearly, there was a major difference in the going.

However, I remembered yesterday that J Gosden is one of those trainers featured in the Weekender's Newmarket Gallops column & thought I'd have a glance before I pack it away -

Apparently, Buthelezi (who set the strong pace in the St Leger) had been going better than Colombian (who ran an improved 12lb behind an 'eased down' Reliable Man), who in turn had been going better than one of my most top rated older horses & Masked Marvel (who ran an improved 12lb to win Leger) & had been going better than an older handicapper.

Nathaniel had been impressing too but was running solo - he's never clocked more than 115 from me, has twice 120 from Nick Mordin & I see Timeform have him on 127, if he can improve like his stablemates by 12lb that would put him within shouting distance, he has never been out of the first two & won 3 of his 6 starts... So it's all eyes on the Gallops column to see if he can go better or Impress against Colombian before the big day, otherwise...

Reliable Man has won 4 from 5, his only defeat coming on ground faster than advertised that he is not likely to encounter in October.

[Godspot]

Usually, the Triumph Hurdle is one race where I say, "last in the notebook, first in the race" - this could be an exception as a certain Mark Prescott inmate who has worked his way 1/2way up the Master List above, Motivado, is soon off to the sales & Nick Mordin says he would make a cracking hurdles prospect - he's my first marker for the race anyway:smile: