A new J/T system?

[wb]

As a lot of you know by now, Im always trying out new systems and looking for different patterns in an attempt to make some bread. Anyone who runs systems will know that most fail.

While reading the RP track stats today, I thought of a new one, and wondered if anyone tried it.

Basically, you;

1) go to the online race card and click on 'top jockeys'
2) Make a note of the jockey with the highest % of wins at that particular track.
3) click on top trainers
4) Note the trainer with the highest % of wins at that particular track
5) if the trainer with the highest % of wins has the jockey that has the highest % of wins booked on his horse, then it is a selection.

The jockey and trainer need to have at least 20 runs each at the track to ensure consistency.

Anyone tried it?

[bigcumba]

I have a feeling that could be run through RSB - hopefully someone will be able to help out with that Wayne. I have a feeling it won't be profitable though, possibly a decent SR, but lowish odds on average - might be wrong though!

[wb]

Ok, Ill give this a try for a few days with a £100 bank, using SP's. £10 Stakes [edit: betfair prices used from post 13]

Tomorrows qualifiers:

Sandown
2.00 Manners
3.45 Tarlac


Warwick
1.40 Wogan

Wolverhampton
2.25 Countrywide Belle

[MarcusMel]

I would try and back track the system - only for me the worry is that top Jockies and trainers is a changing situation and when trying to track it your backtracking on now known top Jockies and trainers. In other words I'm aftertiming on the top guys I don't think I have enough data to work it forward properly.

[wb]

Thanks anyway Marcus, Like you say, with stats changing, it would be hard to backtrack it.

I'm not too confident it will prove profitable, but I'll give it a few days anyway just to see what S/R and P&L it produces, purely out of interest.

[Vic]

Wayne - this may give you a pointer, it's close to what you're looking for

NH Races
Top course jock
Top course trainer

Mega loss - have a look at the file

[wb]

Thanks vic. I see some years show profit though..

Overall it looks like a loser all the same

[wb]

Sandown
2.00 Manners - Won @ 8/11 :)
3.45 Tarlac - Won @ 5/6 :)


Warwick
1.40 Wogan - 2nd @ 8/11 :(

Wolverhampton
2.25 Countrywide Belle - Won @ 4/9 :)

Todays Profit: £20.04

Bank: £120.04

[sparkyminer]

Good start mate.:)

[vegyjones]

Let me be the first to congratulate you on a good start Wayne, well done!

[hudsonmat]

Although this may show a level stakes loss it might be interesting to put them into combination bets (I can hear Keith typing now) as when the top trainers at the course are in form they tend to bang in a few winners at a time. (M Pipe most years at the Open meeting at Chelts, P nicholls at Wincanton a few weeks ago 1100/1 6-timer are just a couple that spring to mind.

just a thought.

matt

[wb]

when the top trainers at the course are in form they tend to bang in a few winners at a time.

Good Point mat, did not think of that. Generally I'm not a fan of multiple bets, even doulbes, but you have made a good case for it. I'll keep the singles going for a little while, and if it gets stale, I'll double up.

[wb]

Rule Change:

From now on, betfair prices will be used. Many of the selections are evs. and odds on, so with such short prices, it makes sense to use betfair instead of SP's.
The best betfair price available at time of posting will be displayed to the right of the horse name.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

Todays Qualifiers:

All stakes £10

Turns out they are all at lingfield. The prices are all much higher than yesterday, the most noticable being African Dream.

2.00 Glentaise - 4.2
3.05 Saviourss Spirit - 3.3
3.40 African Dream - 13.5
4.10 Kallista's Pride - 5.7

[gogga]

I use Sportinglife statistics for Jockey/Trainer combo's for my J/T Trial. I look at the J/T with a strike rate above 60%.

I have noticed that on the AW courses the Top Jockey stats per race works quite well. haven't looked at the trainers though.

[gogga]

Nice start mate

[wb]

I use Sportinglife statistics for Jockey/Trainer combo's for my J/T Trial. I look at the J/T with a strike rate above 60%.

I have noticed that on the AW courses the Top Jockey stats per race works quite well. haven't looked at the trainers though.

I have also noticed that AW stats are stronger. In particular at Lingfield.

Where do click to get the jocky/trainer strike rates?

[wb]

2.00 Glentaise - 4.2 :(
3.05 Saviourss Spirit - 3.3 :(
3.40 African Dream - 13.5 :(
4.10 Kallista's Pride - 5.7 :(

Not a button won today :(

Todays Loss : £40

Bank: £80.04

[wb]

Only one selection today:

Naas - 3.20 Father Matt 1.83

£10 Stake

[gogga]

I have also noticed that AW stats are stronger. In particular at Lingfield.

Where do click to get the jocky/trainer strike rates?

Lefthand task bar on sportinglife..click on stats....then J/T jumps/flatstats... last 7/14 days

[wb]

Naas - 3.20 Father Matt 1.83 Unseats the rider :(

Bank: £70.04

[wb]

Todays Selectons. £10 Stake:

NEWB.

2.00 Daraybad - 11.0
2.30 Square Mile - 2.66

[wb]

2.00 Daraybad - 11.0 :(
2.30 Square Mile - 2.66 :(

Bank: £50.04

[wb]

I have not been doing this lately as I don't have much time on my hands at the moment so Im going to limit this test to 50 bets then stop, and I'll see if anything emerges (Don't think much will come out of it though). I know that 50 bets is not a huge amount to judge it on, but I have a few systems on the go that require a lot of time, so I have to finish up some of them to free up time.

Bet 13 & 14:

ling 5.30 Taxman - 3.65
new 3.10 Stavordale Lad - 8.8

[wb]

ling 5.30 Taxman - 3.65 - 2nd
new 3.10 Stavordale Lad - 8.8 :) Won


Profit on the day £64.10 after commission.

New Bank £114.14

[wb]

bet 15, just in time!

2.20 Pirate flagship 1.36

[wb]

2.20 Pirate flagship 1.36 :)

Profit on the race £3.42 after 5% commission

Total Profit: £17.56

New Bank: £117.56

[wb]

Bets 16, 17, 18 & 19

2.45 Rip. Rochdale 5.4
2.55 Che. Taranis 2.34
4.40 Che. Blue Business 13.5
5.45 Che. Delena 6.4

[wb]

2.45 Rip. Rochdale 5.4 :(
2.55 Che. Taranis 2.34 :)
4.40 Che. Blue Business 13.5 :(
5.45 Che. Delena 6.4 :(

Loss on the 4 races £17.27

Total Profit to date £0.29

New Bank £100.29

[wb]

3.55 Ayr - Diamond Sal

[wb]

3.55 Ayr - Diamond Sal :(

Bank: £90.29